Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Unless he'd dreamt you, of course. I mean, he only made one post yesterDay anyway– he just turned up, voted and disappeared. The previous Day he specially mentioned that he no longer suspected Volo–

But yesterDay EW didn't bother to clear Eomer. I wouldn't say he "totally and completely" dropped him as a suspect– rather, we just don't know what he thought about anyone except you and Lottie yesterDay.

My radiant star, wouldn't this game-plan that you ascribe to our late Seer, of always voting for the person he planned to dream that Night, require him to give some hint of the result next Day? Wouldn't that be the point of it?

It would indeed, light of the east, if one planned to make more than one post per day. I think it was pretty obvious that EW was pressed for time, no?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Sally practically ignores the whole Shasta thing and just votes for Aganzir, even this early. Would a wolfy Sally be so obviously wolfy?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Sally practically ignores the whole Shasta thing and just votes for Aganzir, even this early. Would a wolfy Sally be so obviously wolfy?

A cranky Sally is cranky that everyone is letting the evil one live. Besides, you've proven my point. The only discussion toDay is going to be about Shasta, which is letting the other wolves (or all the wolves, if he isn't one, and don't even get me started on the BW) get another Day free and clear. I'm not happy about that.

Also, for what it's worth, I know I've had major hunches as seer before, and acted on them because I didn't have anything else to go on at the time. Perhaps EW did the same thing; he may have cleared only innocents, or most of his dreams could have been dead. I'm not saying it's the case, but I've seen other seers go 'WOLF, DIE, I KEEL YOU' and it's just a major hunch because they've eliminated other suspects and thus see the person they're voting for as an obvious choice. Of course, it's a bit early in the game for that type of strategy, so either way is possible, but it's something to consider.

Also also, if Shasta does turn up innocent, we know who else we need to look at. I'm not saying that following possible seer hints is a bad idea, but when that's all people will talk about, without allowing for doubt or other suspicion, it makes me think that they either feel threatened or that they're preparing to sacrifice and innocent. Just something to consider should Shasta be good in the end, as I do so love to prepare for every possibility.


Also also....also, apologies. I fell asleep last night and now I need to get off to work. I may be around when/if I go somewhere for lunch, but other than that I won't be back until right before the deadline. Please have more discussion while I'm gone, and please don't make it all about Shasta. Thanks.


P.S. I just woke up, so I'm sorry if this is rambly and a bit nonsensical. :/

x'd with Muffin

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Sally,

Day had been going only a couple of hours and Shasta had been arguing pretty forcefully. Why shouldn't we concentrate on sorting that out?

Also, why are you so sure Aganzir is guilty? Why vote so early? You're behaving pretty strangely.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Sally,

Day had been going only a couple of hours and Shasta had been arguing pretty forcefully. Why shouldn't we concentrate on sorting that out?

Also, why are you so sure Aganzir is guilty? Why vote so early? You're behaving pretty strangely.

The Day's over halfway over, and no one has discussed anything else. Again, try again. If he's a wolf, lynch him and move on. Otherwise he can just argue all Day and you'll ignore everyone else in the village.

Because she is. It's her attitude, the way she's going after me for suspecting her (which she has consistently done when she's guilty, whereas when she's innocent she sort of agrees to disagree), and the way that no one else is paying her any mind. And I'm not entirely sure I'll be back (I may work late, etc.), so I don't want to wait to vote when I already know who I'll be voting for.

I'm behaving strangely? I'm behaving rationally. You're refusing to see anything but the evidence the seer has HANDED you. Use your brain. Accuse someone else toDay, rather than just blindly following the seer's (possible) dreams. That's all I ask.


And I'm now severely late for work. Crap. Best be off. :/

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

You were worried about it becoming a Shasta-show after around 3 hours of the new day. What's happened since then has nothing to do with how odd your comments were then.

I say you're behaving strangely; you say you're behaving rationally. The two are not mutually exclusive: of course it's perfectly rational to vote for your top suspect. But to do it in light of an interesting developing situation (the Shasta debate) so early on is a bit strange.

And I'm not refusing anything. I dealt with the issue that's number one on my priority list; now I've already moved on to my next suspect (which you should probably have noticed by now )

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

You were worried about it becoming a Shasta-show after around 3 hours of the new day. What's happened since then has nothing to do with how odd your comments were then.

No, I actually predicted the direction of discussion, and said that I didn't like where it was headed. Now I don't like where it's gone. Big difference.

However, I'm happy to see that other people are being considered (even if one of them is me). Thanks very much for broadening your horizons a bit.


And Agan's still just cranky. I showed up for like ten minutes on the first Day and did the best I could in the time I had, and have been very consistent since then. She's cross that I've caught her, even though I've said she's playing a very good game; I just have seen her tell and know that she's most likely evil, and thus am not going to back down on the subject. And by "agree to disagree" I mean that as an innocent you usually shrug off my suspicions, rather than jump right back at me and insist I must be evil for suspecting you.


This is likely all from me until right before DL, if I'm able to return at all. We'll see.

[satansaloser2005]

I'm not even going to comment on Shasta's lame attempt to frame me (oooo, I rhymed!) except to say that it is, of course, ludicrous.

ETA: Added link, now that my webs are sort of working again. Possible language warning on that link; I can't recall the whole scene exactly. :/

[Aganzir]

First off, don't expect much participation from me today, at least compared to the previous days - I'm dead tired (painting seemed like such a good idea last night) and I have some schoolwork to take care of.

I'm not going to take part in the Shasta debate because it would just give me a headache and at least to me EW's vote for Shasta is a sufficient reason to lynch him.

Originally Posted by wilwa

Well since we all know I'm not the BW, and since there was no Night kill anyways you can trust this: I got stunned last Night, so that, along with any hints over who may have been a Night 2 kill choice, could help us narrow down who the BW is.

I know there's no way you can be sure I'm telling the truth, but it was me the night before. Hence my comment about the BW possibly being on my suspect list - I'd guess she tries to stun people who might, if the seer, cause problems to her. I admit that's not a waterproof theory and it also depends on who the BW is, but to me it would make the most sense.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Sally practically ignores the whole Shasta thing and just votes for Aganzir, even this early. Would a wolfy Sally be so obviously wolfy?

I don't think that's "obviously wolfy". It's pretty certain Shasta is going down so voting for someone else doesn't really count as an attempt to save him.

Originally Posted by sally

Because she is. It's her attitude, the way she's going after me for suspecting her (which she has consistently done when she's guilty, whereas when she's innocent she sort of agrees to disagree), and the way that no one else is paying her any mind.

That's ridiculous. I started to suspect you because your suspicion of me is crappy - no offense but if it's actually genuine, I'll cut my nails or something. Here's the post sally first talked about me, go and see for yourselves (and it's only gotten worse after that). And please elaborate what you mean by "agrees to disagree" because I have no idea.

Next I'm going to do a sally analysis (although the more accurate term would probably be "a case against sally") because she arouses way more feelings in me than Shasta.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I know there's no way you can be sure I'm telling the truth, but it was me the night before. Hence my comment about the BW possibly being on my suspect list - I'd guess she tries to stun people who might, if the seer, cause problems to her. I admit that's not a waterproof theory and it also depends on who the BW is, but to me it would make the most sense.

Since the Seer is gone, now the only people that the stun thing would harm is Tom, Ferny and the Wolves (though for the wolves it only stops one from communicating with the others, they still get a kill as long as there's more then 1). So really the BW is trying to hit Tom, because he doesn't want him to be able to kill him. Ferny I don't think is much of a threat, he only finds out whether someone is a wolf or not, but maybe BW doesn't want him to find all the wolves since that is helpful to the wolves (who he wants dead).

So, likely the BW is someone who thought I'd be a threat if I was Tom, and therefore he must be someone I suspect in some way, right? But that's a lot of assumptions, but it's still something.

Gotta go back to class, and my laptop is dying. I'll try to come back on in a bit to vote.

[Aganzir]

Sally was fairly inactive the first two days. I was her only suspect (that she mentioned, at least) on day 1, but she didn't bring up points of her own against me but rather repeated what others had said before. She voted for me because my BW plan (she didn't specify which) "could be evil," her reasoning going that I wouldn't think so far ahead as an ordo and would try to keep my head down as a gifted, thus leaving me as evil. Of course she's entitled to speculate on how I'd behave, but she makes it seem way too simple and straightforward.
And as I've said before, I think there's something off with this quote. It looks like she doesn't care about anything, but I'm used to innocents being wary of day 1 bandwagons.

EDIT: x'd since Agan's last, and thus with Volo's vote. Seems like there'll be a wagon banding together. Hope it's a good one!

On to day 3. Sally doesn't think the wolves killed Nog for finding him seerish. I don't know how sally usually chooses her kills, but I'd say most wolves are alarmed by a player who seems certain someone is the cobbler. Also, in hindsight Nog probably wanted the wolves to believe he was the seer and attack him, so I don't see where sally is coming from (unless she's afraid she'd be connected to Nog's death if it was agreed he was considered the seer because he suspected her).

Interestingly enough, sally finds it BAD STUFF that the wolves targeted the BW - even though it means they missed one kill & the seer got one more dream. According to her, it's worse that the wolves know who the BW is so they won't attack her later on in the game (and might hit a gifted instead) and have to lynch her now. Saying the wolves will try to lynch the BW and are probably going heavily after her looks twisted, somehow. It looks as if a wolfish sally is looking at the people who are suspicious of the BW, rubbing her hands and grinning. Because as I said before, it'd be risky for the wolves to try to lynch the BW when all they need to do is leave her for Tom so there will be no tracks that lead back to them when Tom gets her. I questioned her about it before, and here is her reply which I don't bother to paraphrase here because it's wishy-washy and there isn't anything new there.

She's still suspicious of me, finding me "at the very least a cobbler." She still hasn't given any proper reasons for it, only saying it's so terribly obvious to her that I'm evil - and when I try to question her, she downplays it with "Oh you're just mad I caught you!" Well guess what? I am annoyed. Not because you suspect me but because your attitude towards me is belittling and really damn irritating. I'm currently wondering if sally is Ferny who has spied on me and now tries to get me lynched. (That would also explain why she didn't think Nog looked seerish - she knew he couldn't have dreamed me a cobbler.)

She lists me, Eomer & EW as guilty; Form & Nerwen as innocent; and doesn't know about Greenie, Zil, Kath, Lottie, Pitch, Shasta (could be the cobbler or the BW, but not a wolf) and wilwa. Note that she talks a lot about everyone but doesn't reach conclusions, it's more like "could be x but I'm not going to write off the possibility of y, etc." I think this looks quite cobblerish too - granted, she couldn't have spied on everyone she says are guilty/innocent, but her unknown list is far too long to my liking.

She votes for me, saying she also has legitimate reasons for suspecting me that should be enough to expose me as a baddie. I wonder if she was going to do a fake reveal as the seer - an idea thwarted by EW's death. Also this quote where she gives her interpretation for why I found her suspicious speaks for it:

Only because you know I'm right and thus you need me dead. Mind you, I completely understand what you're doing, and I'd probably do the same thing, but it's not going to work. Sorry, muffin. And actually, I wish you weren't evil, because then I wouldn't have to kill you.

Today she votes for me instead of the basically certain wolf Shasta. As I said, it doesn't look so much like an attempt to save him (because I doubt it's possible), but it would be a good way for the cobbler to signal to the wolves: "Hey guys, I'm voting for someone else, see!"

However, she also says we shouldn't only talk about Shasta today. I kind of agree with this, but I don't know what she's trying to get at by suggesting it... Is she hoping we find someone else to lynch than Shasta? She's also semi-defending Shasta, saying seers sometimes have major hunches that look like they had in fact dreamed someone.

And I see she still hasn't told us her legitimate points against me.

I'd strongly consider lynching sally tomorrow.

[Aganzir]

Agan Day 2 (unknown) suspects: sally, Nerwen. Later I also added that something Eomer said would be convenient if he was the BW, and I considered voting for sally or Eomer.

Wilwa Day 3 "could lynch" (given their scarce posting): Eomer, Form, Kath, sally. She suspected the first three already on day 2.

To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if it's Eomer.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Agan Day 2 (unknown) suspects: sally, Nerwen. Later I also added that something Eomer said would be convenient if he was the BW, and I considered voting for sally or Eomer.

Wilwa Day 3 "could lynch" (given their scarce posting): Eomer, Form, Kath, sally. She suspected the first three already on day 2.

To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if it's Eomer.

Originally Posted by little old me

I think that a wolf!Eomer may be more vocal, wanting to help out his pack and whatever, but perhaps he could be the BW? Alternatively, he could be our other cobbler. Still, he needs to die, because he’s totally up to something, and I don’t think it’s a good something.

Finally we agree on something?

[satansaloser2005]

Also, all this circus aside, I have to say, my frozen goodness, I don't think your idea of "EW votes for someone, then dreams them" is a very valid one. It could happen, but I don't think it's the case here. It leaves too much room for things like this to happen, and it would be a big risk, especially if he voted for the ranger and then dreamed his role, only to be killed that Night and have the village go after their only remaining gifted (which obviously didn't happen here, but that's not the point).

tl;dr. Possible!theory is possible, but probably not the case here. Sorry, love.

[satansaloser2005]

Okay, I'm done. I need to get back to work, and I won't be back until about ten minutes before the DL (if that long), so if you have anything you want me to answer when I return please mark it with a little Merisu face or something so I see it. Thanks!

*dashes off to RL land*

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Hmm, and about that same game, after we did lynch you, we went after Pitch because you had expressed so much suspicion for him, so we assumed he must have been your dream. But he hadn't been, he was innocent. So yeah, it's very possible that he never dreamt you, but since he dreamt only innocents he needed someone to suspect, so in his busy rush he picked you. BUT, he went after you really hard, it wasn't just a "I think he might be guilty, but maybe not" thing like when he voted Eomer, it was a "die wolfie die" thing.

Exactly. This isn't an instance of a Seer voting for someone and saying "I think xe's evil". I don't see why TEW would have been so specific if he hadn't dreamed Shasta. If he only had suspicions on Shasta, why not couch them in terms as he did with Eomer?

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Also also, if Shasta does turn up innocent, we know who else we need to look at. I'm not saying that following possible seer hints is a bad idea, but when that's all people will talk about, without allowing for doubt or other suspicion, it makes me think that they either feel threatened or that they're preparing to sacrifice and innocent. Just something to consider should Shasta be good in the end, as I do so love to prepare for every possibility.

If Shasta turns up innocent, the ones to immediately consider perhaps should be Lottie, Eomer, and me, as the ones who pushed for Shasta's lynch toDay.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

#110 - suspects Inziladun, Aganzir and Pitch. His fight with Inzi then became well-documented.

#133 - more suspicion on Agan and Pitch, and also some on Wilwa & Green.

#182 - argues with Wilwa

#184 - steps back somewhat from his suspicion of Agan/Green/Wilwa/Pitch

#216 - flirts with Kath, then gets exasperated by her.


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Ok, less likely to suspect the worst in Wilwa and Pitch now.

Kath and Green I am more concerned about. Kath, Green, Form, Sally & Nerwen - a double dose o' wolvery in that lot, I'll wager!