Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Aganzir]

First off, don't expect much participation from me today, at least compared to the previous days - I'm dead tired (painting seemed like such a good idea last night) and I have some schoolwork to take care of.

I'm not going to take part in the Shasta debate because it would just give me a headache and at least to me EW's vote for Shasta is a sufficient reason to lynch him.

Originally Posted by wilwa

Well since we all know I'm not the BW, and since there was no Night kill anyways you can trust this: I got stunned last Night, so that, along with any hints over who may have been a Night 2 kill choice, could help us narrow down who the BW is.

I know there's no way you can be sure I'm telling the truth, but it was me the night before. Hence my comment about the BW possibly being on my suspect list - I'd guess she tries to stun people who might, if the seer, cause problems to her. I admit that's not a waterproof theory and it also depends on who the BW is, but to me it would make the most sense.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Sally practically ignores the whole Shasta thing and just votes for Aganzir, even this early. Would a wolfy Sally be so obviously wolfy?

I don't think that's "obviously wolfy". It's pretty certain Shasta is going down so voting for someone else doesn't really count as an attempt to save him.

Originally Posted by sally

Because she is. It's her attitude, the way she's going after me for suspecting her (which she has consistently done when she's guilty, whereas when she's innocent she sort of agrees to disagree), and the way that no one else is paying her any mind.

That's ridiculous. I started to suspect you because your suspicion of me is crappy - no offense but if it's actually genuine, I'll cut my nails or something. Here's the post sally first talked about me, go and see for yourselves (and it's only gotten worse after that). And please elaborate what you mean by "agrees to disagree" because I have no idea.

Next I'm going to do a sally analysis (although the more accurate term would probably be "a case against sally") because she arouses way more feelings in me than Shasta.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I know there's no way you can be sure I'm telling the truth, but it was me the night before. Hence my comment about the BW possibly being on my suspect list - I'd guess she tries to stun people who might, if the seer, cause problems to her. I admit that's not a waterproof theory and it also depends on who the BW is, but to me it would make the most sense.

Since the Seer is gone, now the only people that the stun thing would harm is Tom, Ferny and the Wolves (though for the wolves it only stops one from communicating with the others, they still get a kill as long as there's more then 1). So really the BW is trying to hit Tom, because he doesn't want him to be able to kill him. Ferny I don't think is much of a threat, he only finds out whether someone is a wolf or not, but maybe BW doesn't want him to find all the wolves since that is helpful to the wolves (who he wants dead).

So, likely the BW is someone who thought I'd be a threat if I was Tom, and therefore he must be someone I suspect in some way, right? But that's a lot of assumptions, but it's still something.

Gotta go back to class, and my laptop is dying. I'll try to come back on in a bit to vote.

[Aganzir]

Sally was fairly inactive the first two days. I was her only suspect (that she mentioned, at least) on day 1, but she didn't bring up points of her own against me but rather repeated what others had said before. She voted for me because my BW plan (she didn't specify which) "could be evil," her reasoning going that I wouldn't think so far ahead as an ordo and would try to keep my head down as a gifted, thus leaving me as evil. Of course she's entitled to speculate on how I'd behave, but she makes it seem way too simple and straightforward.
And as I've said before, I think there's something off with this quote. It looks like she doesn't care about anything, but I'm used to innocents being wary of day 1 bandwagons.

EDIT: x'd since Agan's last, and thus with Volo's vote. Seems like there'll be a wagon banding together. Hope it's a good one!

On to day 3. Sally doesn't think the wolves killed Nog for finding him seerish. I don't know how sally usually chooses her kills, but I'd say most wolves are alarmed by a player who seems certain someone is the cobbler. Also, in hindsight Nog probably wanted the wolves to believe he was the seer and attack him, so I don't see where sally is coming from (unless she's afraid she'd be connected to Nog's death if it was agreed he was considered the seer because he suspected her).

Interestingly enough, sally finds it BAD STUFF that the wolves targeted the BW - even though it means they missed one kill & the seer got one more dream. According to her, it's worse that the wolves know who the BW is so they won't attack her later on in the game (and might hit a gifted instead) and have to lynch her now. Saying the wolves will try to lynch the BW and are probably going heavily after her looks twisted, somehow. It looks as if a wolfish sally is looking at the people who are suspicious of the BW, rubbing her hands and grinning. Because as I said before, it'd be risky for the wolves to try to lynch the BW when all they need to do is leave her for Tom so there will be no tracks that lead back to them when Tom gets her. I questioned her about it before, and here is her reply which I don't bother to paraphrase here because it's wishy-washy and there isn't anything new there.

She's still suspicious of me, finding me "at the very least a cobbler." She still hasn't given any proper reasons for it, only saying it's so terribly obvious to her that I'm evil - and when I try to question her, she downplays it with "Oh you're just mad I caught you!" Well guess what? I am annoyed. Not because you suspect me but because your attitude towards me is belittling and really damn irritating. I'm currently wondering if sally is Ferny who has spied on me and now tries to get me lynched. (That would also explain why she didn't think Nog looked seerish - she knew he couldn't have dreamed me a cobbler.)

She lists me, Eomer & EW as guilty; Form & Nerwen as innocent; and doesn't know about Greenie, Zil, Kath, Lottie, Pitch, Shasta (could be the cobbler or the BW, but not a wolf) and wilwa. Note that she talks a lot about everyone but doesn't reach conclusions, it's more like "could be x but I'm not going to write off the possibility of y, etc." I think this looks quite cobblerish too - granted, she couldn't have spied on everyone she says are guilty/innocent, but her unknown list is far too long to my liking.

She votes for me, saying she also has legitimate reasons for suspecting me that should be enough to expose me as a baddie. I wonder if she was going to do a fake reveal as the seer - an idea thwarted by EW's death. Also this quote where she gives her interpretation for why I found her suspicious speaks for it:

Only because you know I'm right and thus you need me dead. Mind you, I completely understand what you're doing, and I'd probably do the same thing, but it's not going to work. Sorry, muffin. And actually, I wish you weren't evil, because then I wouldn't have to kill you.

Today she votes for me instead of the basically certain wolf Shasta. As I said, it doesn't look so much like an attempt to save him (because I doubt it's possible), but it would be a good way for the cobbler to signal to the wolves: "Hey guys, I'm voting for someone else, see!"

However, she also says we shouldn't only talk about Shasta today. I kind of agree with this, but I don't know what she's trying to get at by suggesting it... Is she hoping we find someone else to lynch than Shasta? She's also semi-defending Shasta, saying seers sometimes have major hunches that look like they had in fact dreamed someone.

And I see she still hasn't told us her legitimate points against me.

I'd strongly consider lynching sally tomorrow.

[wilwarin538]

Laptop died and I can't use the school computers for the Downs so I'm doing this on my iPod touch and it's really hard. Going to keep it brief.

So I think it is clear that Shasta will be lynched, and it would suck if he turned up innocent but we shouldn't ignore the Seer.

++Shasta

don't think I'll be able to come back again today, sorry I wasn't very helpful. Good luck!

Edit: x'ed with Agan (ya it could very well be him)