Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Nerwen]

I bloody well hope Shasta's a wolf, anyway, because I don't see how we can't lynch him now.

[Loslote]

If I had to guess, I'd go with the
1. Me
2. Volo
3. Shasta

...but I don't know why he'd dream me. *shrugs*

Sorry, Shasta, but there's really no other conclusion I can come to. His vote for Eomer does not look like a Seer dream. His vote for you, did. He even said explicitly that you were a wolf:

I hope you're pleased at what you and your buddies accomplished last night.

And he gave his reason for dreaming you. You said something that jumped out to him. If we go with the theory that he'd dreamt of me, then you mentioning his known innocent would have drawn his eye, and it "stuck in his craw". It doesn't get much clearer than this.

++Shasta

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Loslote

If I had to guess, I'd go with the
1. Me
2. Volo
3. Shasta

...but I don't know why he'd dream me. *shrugs*

Sorry, Shasta, but there's really no other conclusion I can come to. His vote for Eomer does not look like a Seer dream. His vote for you, did. He even said explicitly that you were a wolf:



And he gave his reason for dreaming you. You said something that jumped out to him. If we go with the theory that he'd dreamt of me, then you mentioning his known innocent would have drawn his eye, and it "stuck in his craw". It doesn't get much clearer than this.

++Shasta

Precisely. He voted Eomer before dreaming him - I really don't see any other reason for completely dropping him the next day (other than that I'm a wolf, but I happen to know I'm not, so...) And 'accusations' have been made in that manner before and haven't been true, so latching onto this one makes no sense.

[satansaloser2005]

++Agan

I don't plan on voting any differently until she's dead, so why wait?


Besides, I'm going to get sick of all this Shasta discussion fairly quickly. If we're going to lynch him, let's lynch him, but stop dwelling on it. If he's a wolf, he's not the only wolf, and if he's not a wolf, then there are other wolves to catch. (If he's the BW, of course, we need to kill him, but if we use that EW quote as evidence then Shasta being the BW is highly unlikely.)

Dinner time. Back soon. Behave while I'm gone, k?

[satansaloser2005]

Clarification: I'm totally okay with testing this Shasta theory, but I don't want us to get too single-minded. Besides, Agan's totally evil. Can we kill both of them?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Clarification: I'm totally okay with testing this Shasta theory, but I don't want us to get too single-minded. Besides, Agan's totally evil. Can we kill both of them?

Love you too, babe.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Clarification: I'm totally okay with testing this Shasta theory, but I don't want us to get too single-minded. Besides, Agan's totally evil. Can we kill both of them?

There's only two ways you could know Agan is evil: you're a wolf who knows she's the BW because you tried to kill her; or you're Ferny who knows she's a wolf because you guessed her.

Which is it?

x/d with all since my last

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

There's only two ways you could know Agan is evil: you're a wolf who knows she's the BW because you tried to kill her; or you're Ferny who knows she's a wolf because you guessed her.

Which is it?

x/d with all since my last

Neither of the above. I've said she's a wolf more likely than the BW, which rules out your first thought, and if I was Ferny, wouldn't I be protecting her?

Sense, you make none. Please try again.

[wilwarin538]

Longest day ever, I'm so exhausted...

So I can just pop on quickly now for a few comments before I fall asleep for a good 8 hours. I don't think I'll be able to come on that often tomorrow because of work and school, but I'll try my hardest.

I agree with the Shasta thing, I mean I get what he's saying about EW's little pattern, and if he is innocent then that would be a very annoying situation for him, but it's a bad idea to ignore the Seer who clearly felt very strongly about Shasta's guilt. So it's definitely the most logical choice.

And remember back on day 1 and Agan had that idea that whoever gets stunned should come forward the next Day, but then I said that the BW could just say it was him if the Night kill was the stun choice, and so the plan went out the window? Well since we all know I'm not the BW, and since there was no Night kill anyways you can trust this: I got stunned last Night, so that, along with any hints over who may have been a Night 2 kill choice, could help us narrow down who the BW is.

Now I need to sleep....so badly....I'll try to show up as much as I can later.

x'ed with Shasta

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Um, no, the pattern is that EW voted people before dreaming them, as I've said... thrice, now. I still see no plausible reason for his Eomer-vote except for the one I've brought up myself - in fact, no one's even bothering to think about it.

So you think he voted people just to show who he dreamed? I think it's more likely that he voted the people he suspected. Eomer was so universally suspected, he wasn't really worth the dream. You weren't even close to being universally suspected. Even if he suspected you already, you weren't going to be lynched. Eomer might have been, which makes Eomer the better choice to vote and you the better choice to dream.

EDIT: xed with Sally and Shasta

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Loslote

So you think he voted people just to show who he dreamed? I think it's more likely that he voted the people he suspected. Eomer was so universally suspected, he wasn't really worth the dream. You weren't even close to being universally suspected. Even if he suspected you already, you weren't going to be lynched. Eomer might have been, which makes Eomer the better choice to vote and you the better choice to dream.

No, I think he voted people to show who he was going to dream. You can say Eomer wasn't worth the dream, but that's entirely your opinion.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

No, I think he voted people to show who he was going to dream. You can say Eomer wasn't worth the dream, but that's entirely your opinion.

I think that's awfully complicated, and not necessarily likely for people to catch on about. Yeah, you did (assuming this scenario is correct) but how many people would have noticed that? It might be that, or it might be a coincidence. Like someone said (Pitchie or Zil, maybe?), we only "know" (and I'm using know in the most non-certain way here) that's what happened with Volo. It's not a pattern; it's a guess.

Also, I know I've xed.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

So you think he voted people just to show who he dreamed? I think it's more likely that he voted the people he suspected.

No, I don't really see why a Seer would indicate he'd dreamed an innocent by not only voting for them, but in Shasta's case outright calling them a wolf.

x/d with Shasta: So a Seer would think it logical to show who he intended to dream by voting for them? And if he looked over the thread during the Night and changed his mind, what then?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

No, I don't really see why a Seer would indicate he'd dreamed an innocent by not only voting for them, but in Shasta's case outright calling them a wolf.

x/d with Shasta: So a Seer would think it logical to show who he intended to dream by voting for them? And if he looked over the thread during the Night and changed his mind, what then?

Twisting again. Did I, ever, say 'that's what a Seer would do'? No. That's what I think EW did, and obviously that's the theory I advocate, since the other is obviously wrong (from my point of view). If you could stop twisting everything I say to suit your cobblerish desire to have me lynched, I'd appreciate it.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Um, no, the pattern is that EW voted people before dreaming them, as I've said... thrice, now.

Twice that the rest of us know of– and I don't know why a Seer would feel the need to follow such a strict modus operandi on a relatively minor point, yet break the golden rule of "never directly accuse someone you haven't dreamed".

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

And 'accusations' have been made in that manner before and haven't been true, so latching onto this one makes no sense.

You're the Seer, you haven't dreamed any villains– how do you vote? In a non-committal way, preferably hinting that you don't actually know anything: "Well, I'll have to go with A", "B is certainly acting funny, though I could be wrong".

You're the Seer, you've dreamed a wolf– how do you vote? Well, unless you're revealing, you don't actually say, "I dreamed C and he's a wolf"– but you come as close to it as you dare. "Shasta, I hope you're pleased at what you and your buddies accomplished last night" is about as explicit as it gets, particularly when followed by "you're going down, boy," and "death to lycanthropes".

Of course, it is true that EW is inexperienced, and might not have taken into consideration how things would look after he died. All I can say, my flawless diamond, is that in that case we're going to need to add a "Tips for Newbie Seers" section to the Guidelines thread.

EDIT:X'd since Shasta at #372.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Twice that the rest of us know of– and I don't know why a Seer would feel the need to follow such a strict modus operandi on a relatively minor point, yet break the golden rule of "never directly accuse someone you haven't dreamed".



You're the Seer, you haven't dreamed any villains– how do you vote? In a non-committal way, preferably hinting that you don't actually know anything: "Well, I'll have to go with A", "B is certainly acting funny, though I could be wrong".

You're the Seer, you've dreamed a wolf– how do you vote? Well, unless you're revealing, you don't actually say, "I dreamed C and he's a wolf"– but you come as close to it as you dare. "Shasta, I hope you're pleased at what you and your buddies accomplished last night" is about as explicit as it gets, particularly when followed by "you're going down, boy," and "death to lycanthropes".

Of course, it is true that EW is inexperienced, and might not have taken into consideration how things would look after he died. All I can say, my flawless diamond, is that in that case we're going to need to add a "Tips for Newbie Seers" section to the Guidelines thread.

EDIT:X'd since Shasta at #372.

Looked like flippancy to me. EW said this about Eomer -

Originally Posted by EW

I'd bet he's bad.

- does this, by implication, mean Eomer's a wolf?

Answer - no. I don't see why situation A apparently gives results B and C just because of a slight change in unrelated variable D.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Looked like flippancy to me. EW said this about Eomer -

- does this, by implication, mean Eomer's a wolf?

- does this, by implication, mean Eomer's a wolf?

Answer - no. I don't see why situation A apparently gives results B and C just because of a slight change in unrelated variable D.

Actually, it might have been a subtle accusation– if that's all EW had said in his vote-post. But in fact he had had just taken pains to make it clear that he did not have any special knowledge of Eomer's role.

Here's the rest of it:

Originally Posted by EW

Eomer's behavior strikes me as cobblerish, or he could be a wolf or a wight. Or he could be innocent. I don't know, but I'd bet he's bad.

EDIT:X'd since Shasta at #386.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Actually, it might have been a subtle accusation– if that's all EW had said in his vote-post. But in fact he had had just taken pains to make it clear that he did not have any special knowledge of Eomer's role.

Here's the rest of it:

And that's why I think he dreamt Eomer on last night - otherwise he'd still have been on him yesterDay! He didn't mention Eomer at all, which to me says only one thing - he found him innocent another way. There's no other reason for EW to have dropped Eomer as a suspect so totally and completely.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Of course, it is true that EW is inexperienced, and might not have taken into consideration how things would look after he died. All I can say, my flawless diamond, is that in that case we're going to need to add a "Tips for Newbie Seers" section to the Guidelines thread.

There's always a chance TEW was an inexperienced Seer who unintentionally misled us, sure. But I see no other logical way to interpret what we've been left with than Shasta is a wolf.

x/d with Wilwa and Shasta

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

There's always a chance TEW was an inexperienced Seer who unintentionally misled us, sure. But I see no other logical way to interpret what we've been left with than Shasta is a wolf.

x/d with Wilwa and Shasta

No one has said why my theory is illogical. I think it's just that you've already closed off to anything I have to say. Maybe if I have Nerwen copy-paste everything I say...?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

No one has said why my theory is illogical. I think it's just that you've already closed off to anything I have to say.

No, your theory isn't illogical. It's just that the alternative makes more sense.

EDIT:X'd with Shasta.