Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Volo

If BW is in danger of being lynched, xe will most likely start revealing things in favour of the Wolves, such as xis mildly educated hunches about the identities of the Gifted. As long as TB is alive, it is better not to make an open enemy out of BW. Ok, xe is be against us, and we against xim, but there is mutual benefit in not concentrating too much in the demise of the other party.

How will the BW have these "educated hunches"? Xe will know who xe decided to stun, but not necessarily whether xe hit a wolf or a Gifted. How could xe know if xe hit the Seer and caused the loss of a dream, or caused Ferny to be unable to spy for the Night? The only concrete information the BW could get from xer stunning actions is if two wolves are gone already and there isn't a kill during a Night, meaning xe nailed the remaining wolf.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Oh well, have to leave now. I'll vote Aganzir simply due to the fact that she's posted so much when there's nothing to talk about yet. Trying to muddy the waters, obviously. Guilty as sin.

++ AGANZIR

[Boromir88]

Bolding votes is all that is required Eomer, not highlighting. But if you've already departed, as it is it'll count.

[wilwarin538]

One more question for the ModGod about the Barrow Wight.

Since he needs to be the last one standing, I'm just trying to figure out how that's possible. Like if he's left standing with a wolf and an ordo, and then they lynch the wolf, well it would be the BW and an ordo left and that's not him being the last standing, so does he win along with the village? Or if the ordo is lynched than it's the BW and the wolf left standing, so that's not him winning either, so how can he be alone at the end? Unless he just has to survive the whole game?

Originally Posted by Agan

Ah but they will. The ordo gets a PM that says she was stunned (see the rules). That's why telling it to the rest of us does no more than eliminate a potential BW, thus making it easier for Tom & us to find her.

I missed that. Still though, it would be very hard to be sure the person is even telling the truth, and what if the person he blocked is the one that gets night killed? Then the BW could just say he was the one who was blocked, no one would be around to refute it, and then Tom would never go for him. It just sounds like so many things could go crazy here.

x'ed with Noggins

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by wilwa

It just sounds like so many things could go crazy here.

Exactly. A wolf claiming she was stunned - should we think she is innocent? A cobbler claiming she was stunned - what does it tell us? A gifted telling she was stunned (trying to act like an ordo) - do we believe her, do the wolves wish to check her? A non-stunned innocent trying to save the Day says she was stunned - what do we learn from there? And what is the one who then possibly counter-reveals? Not to talk of the different settings those "revelations" and their counters would happen, giving new twists to them...

I mean there are so many scenarios my brain hurts already just thinking what they might be...

[Volo]

Noggie doesn't bother with pleasantries and joins the Day with quite harsh words indeed. I sort of agree with his point, an evil Agan could very well be so bold as to mislead the discussion with something like that. But let's not get too jumpy yet.

I myself got the bad vibe from Greenie. Her painting of the worst-case scenario felt somewhat... mischevious. Additionally Agan liking Greenie instead of finding her suspicious points to an abnormality. This is just a hunch and I'll add that I've found Greenie suspicious all the time after her first game in which she was Wolf. But what do you think?

[Glirdan]

I'm sorry guys, I can't stay up any longer. I'm exhausted and need sleep as I have to work again later tonight. I shouldn't be this bad for Day 2.

As for my vote...

++Wilwa

Because I can. Seriously. Just completely random.

Good night.

[Volo]

An hour of silence. What a bore. Would have said something myself, but having gone through the thread a few times in a non-cronological order, I have come to few new thoughts, most of which are better left unsaid.

If nothing happens in the next ten minutes I'll have to vote (both me and computer falling asleep), and the vote will be for Agan.

[A Little Green]

Right, I'm back. I'll be here for some time, but will (hopefully) make it to bed before DL - loads to do tomorrow.

First of all, I really don't like the votes this far. Day 1, for sure, but these two are ill-reasoned even for Day 1 votes. Eomer votes Agan with

Originally Posted by Eomer

Oh well, have to leave now. I'll vote Aganzir simply due to the fact that she's posted so much when there's nothing to talk about yet. Trying to muddy the waters, obviously. Guilty as sin.

Which strikes me as not serious - that sounds as if he wasn't even trying to get it right. The same goes, even to a fuller extent, for Glirdan, whose reason is as follows:

Originally Posted by Glirdy

Because I can. Seriously. Just completely random.

Seriously, guys, we can do better than that! Or should we adopt a strategy where everyone just votes randomly because it's Day 1 and nothing matters anyway? I'm not convinced Eomer and/or Glirdan are evil (not that I'm convinced of anything at this point), but a random vote on Day 1 is among the easiest things a baddie can do - a vote that can't really be called into question because it can be covered with "Hey, it was Day 1!"

Just in general, then - I'm *gasp* ok with Nogrod and got a vague bad feeling about Pitch's first post. Checked back and it's mostly just a feeling, accompanied maybe by this:

Another thing: I think at the beginning at least, while there's still three or two wolves, the BW is a bigger danger to us than to them: he can prevent our Seer and Ranger from helping us, but if he stuns a wolf, the rest will still get a Night-kill.
They'll want to get rid of him sooner or later, so that a lone wolf won't lose a kill by being stunned, but they'll probably want to keep him around for the first few Days (unless we get lucky and lynch some wolves rather soon). For this reason, I'm not at all comfortable with Lottie's suggestion to leave a suspected BW alive till next Day.

Don't know, there's something in the way he seems to have given much thought to how the BW situation looks from a wolf's point of view.

Originally Posted by Volo

I myself got the bad vibe from Greenie. Her painting of the worst-case scenario felt somewhat... mischevious.

Mischievous? It certainly wasn't meant to. I was trying to make sense to myself of how big a threat the cobblers represent, and thought to myself, "What is the worst that could happen?" as well as "What is the best that could happen?" - and from these to get something of an idea of the potential damage the cobblers can do. (Of course the real extreme good scenario would involve wolves killing both cobblers on Nights 2 and 3, but that seemed a bit too unlikely even to me..)


EDIT: x-ed with Vollo

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

what exactly do two you mean with "the BW can even be really useful later on" (to whom?) and "whether she plays for us or for the wolves"?

I can't naturally speak for Volo, but I see the BW as a possible extra cobbler. Maybe it's too rash of me to think she'd choose sides before the result of the game is certain, but she can a) try to stun a wolf, or b) try to stun an innocent. Or she might just have fun and stun whomever she wants, in which case she just brings more chaos into a game with already two cobblers.

Originally Posted by Volo

If BW is in danger of being lynched, xe will most likely start revealing things in favour of the Wolves, such as xis mildly educated hunches about the identities of the Gifted.

Where did that come from? I find it unlikely the BW can get any more information than the rest of us just from her stunning.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Oh well, have to leave now. I'll vote Aganzir simply due to the fact that she's posted so much when there's nothing to talk about yet. Trying to muddy the waters, obviously. Guilty as sin.

Eomer you're stupid! :-p

Originally Posted by Nogrod

My Cobblerometer (TM) flashes red and is overheating with Aganzir.

Awww Nog! This is so nostalgic. You never like anything I say, do you?

the seer and the ranger should reveal? --- but on the other it would also tell TBW that she didn't get it right.

What are you talking about? I fail to see how telling they were stunned would reveal the seer and the ranger. And who exactly is the BW supposed to be looking for? Revealing you've been stunned doesn't prove your innocence, it only proves you're not the BW. Also, I can't see why anybody would bother to claim falsely they were stunned - if more than one said it, fine, we'd know there was something rotten going on.
However, wilwa brought up a good point:

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

what if the person he blocked is the one that gets night killed?

I hadn't even thought of it. It basically undermines my point, so yeah.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

A wolf claiming she was stunned - should we think she is innocent? A cobbler claiming she was stunned - what does it tell us? A gifted telling she was stunned (trying to act like an ordo) - do we believe her, do the wolves wish to check her?

Nog have you (or I) misunderstood something or are we just on a totally different wavelength? Because I have no idea what you're talking about. Everybody can be stunned but the BW (although hmm I can't remember it being said anywhere that she can't stun herself).

Originally Posted by Volo

Additionally Agan liking Greenie instead of finding her suspicious points to an abnormality.

That's because it is abnormal.

[Pitchwife]

First impressions up to now:

1. INNOCENT
Mr Unculpable (that's me)

2. LOOKING GOOD
Shasta - his one post so far was fine and very reasonable, I'd like more of the same

3. LOOKING MOSTLY GOOD
Nerwen - mostly very reasonable, except her post about "how to get rid of Tom"; if that was a joke (as I think most probable, it can't really see her thinking that in earnest), it could have done with a smiley for disambiguation.
wilwa - agrees with Lottie on not 'wasting a lynch' on the BW (not good IMO); otherwise pretty reasonable and engaged, no wilwolf chirpyness (good)
Zil - is his usual laid back, reasonable and laconic self; don't trust him out of my eyesight, but more on general principles than because of anything really suspicious as of now.

4. LOOKING STILL SLIGHTLY MORE GOOD THAN BAD
Agan - is all over the place with plans and ideas which I don't find very helpful at all, interspersed with a lot of good points here & there; I wouldn't quite rule out the possibility of her being the cobbler, but mostly, she looks to me up to now more genuine and like an innocent doing some experimental thinking aloud than a baddie.
Nogrod - I agree with him about Agan's plans, not so sure I agree with his conclusions; and this

Originally Posted by Nog

She comes up with the idea that those who have been stunned should come forwards eg. the seer and the ranger should reveal?

is nonsense - like a gifted can't say "I was stunned last Night" without having to say "So I couldn't dream/protect"? Did he really not get that, or is he trying to make Agan's suggestion look worse than it already is? On the other hand, that's been the first reasoned suspicion of the Day, bonus points for that
Volo - I can't quite follow all of his thoughts about the BW, but he doesn't look too bad all in all; in any case I haven't played with him before, so bar any blatant wolvery he'll get a pass toDay

5. COULD GO EITHER WAY
Eomer - his behaviour and vote rather remind me of my Eo-packmate from a few games ago; problem is, they also remind me of an innocent Eomer I've played with before, so I don't really have a clue.
Greenie - wants to discuss cobblers rather than BW, which isn't necessarily evil per se, except it could be an attempt by a Little Green Wight to distract us from discussing her role with her worst-case scenario of five baddies working in team; good point about wolvish vs wightish knowledge & behaviour in #37, though.
TEW - protests his innocence a bit much indeed (btw, Shasta, it's 'thou dost', not 'you doth'); first says we should lynch all baddies (good), then flipflops and agrees with Lottie and Glirdan to leave the BW be (not good); some observations on BW, wolf and cobbler behaviour which I don't quite agree with, but don't look devious IMO.

6. LOOKING NOT SO GOOD
Glirdan - first (in chronological order) this:

Originally Posted by Glirdan

After all, TBW is only really dangerous to our Seer and Ranger, and at the start of the game, xe is as blind to them as the rest of us. There is always the chance that xe gets one of them on sheer dumb luck, but that's a 1 in 16 shot, and if the Ranger is anywhere near as good as I was last game [ ] that won't be a problem.

'Only' dangerous to the best assets we have vs 3 wolves and 2 cobblers???
Second, I don't really get how we could use Agan's voting plan to 'oust the cobblers'. Confusing.
Third, his vote is plain nonsense (with all the discussion we've had toDay, you can't do better than a random vote?).

7. LOOKING FURRY/PEACHY/SKELETAL
Lottie - leave the BW alone if we have a chance to lynch xem? No, no, and no again, and I can't see an innocent suggesting that if she's thought out the ramifications; could well be the BW herself, or a cobbler or wolf trying to keep the BW around as long as xe won't prevent any Night-kills.

8. NO IDEA FOR LACK OF INPUT
Kath - exists and has posted, wow!
Form - hates Day 1, as susual; waiting for more
sally - nothing but early banter; has a cold, therefore excused for now

Conclusions (as of now, liable to be revised on further evidence):

WON'T VOTE FOR
Anybody from group 1-4 and 8

PROBABLY WON'T VOTE FOR
Group 5

MIGHT VOTE FOR
Group 6, i.e. Glirdan

WILL PROBABLY VOTE FOR
Group 7, i.e. Lottie


EDIT: x-ed from #64 down

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

How will the BW have these "educated hunches"? Xe will know who xe decided to stun, but not necessarily whether xe hit a wolf or a Gifted. How could xe know if xe hit the Seer and caused the loss of a dream, or caused Ferny to be unable to spy for the Night? The only concrete information the BW could get from xer stunning actions is if two wolves are gone already and there isn't a kill during a Night, meaning xe nailed the remaining wolf.

The hunches won't be much more educated than a basic Ordo's, but the ability to stun might give more insight, nothing certain, of course, but nevertheless, if we could kill a Cobbler quietly during the Night, it would surely be an advantage.

[Nogrod]

Kath posted on D1!!! Whoa!

Form said D1's are crap... a big surprise.


Anyway, I suggest we call off this discussion as to which baddie should be our priority to something like D3 or 4 when we might actually have a possibility of speculating whether X looks more wolfy, Y more B-Wightly and Z more cobblerish... Without any total blunders from their side we're going more or less on some general "bad hunches", at least toDay; that someone doesn't feel genuine, that someone is too excited / too reserved, that someone just doesn't sit right.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

The only concrete information the BW could get from xer stunning actions is if two wolves are gone already and there isn't a kill during a Night, meaning xe nailed the remaining wolf.

Although if the ranger is alive she wouldn't know even that...

Which brings to my first worry of the Day. My Cobblerometer (TM) flashes red and is overheating with Aganzir.

She comes up with the idea that those who have been stunned should come forwards eg. the seer and the ranger should reveal? With innocents it would be a more delicate matter: on the one hand we'd get a "known innocent" - but on the other it would also tell TBW that she didn't get it right. But looking at the options and confusion that kind of deal would leave to the cobblers, but also to the wolves and gifteds - or even good thinking innocents (*rememberingSkip*) - I'd say we should be very careful in trying to establish any such "rules" among ourselves. A lot of confusion indeed - what a cobbler would love to see as that is their work-description.

Also the idea of making a vote on whom TB should go for - and the requirement of total consent that kind of arrangement needs to work - would mean hours and hours on focusing only on a) the suggestion, and b) on who the BW is - thus nicely blocking all the reasonable talk about the wolves which should be our top priority; for the time being (see what people have said about how hard it is to pin down a lone baddie with no ties to anyone).


So even if one can argue for the procedures Aganzir has made, they both require more or less common consent and would thus require more or less all our efforts. Meanwhile the wolves can just entertain themselves and take sides as they see fit because it's not talking about people but procedures. So Days wasted.


EDIT: X'd with Eomer, Boro and Volo