WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Nogrod · 10-12-2010, 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by A Little Green

the problem is that a cobbler taking desperate measures to save themselves doesn't make sense.

But a wolf making desperate steps would make sense.

If Skip is a wolf and pulled himself out from the lynch yesterDay with that hunter-impression he had to come up with something toDay - later the Day - when wilwa had counter-revealed and it started looking that maybe more people tended to trust wilwa than him. And that is a nice plan indeed - and makes sense.

EDIT: X'd with a few

A Little Green · 10-12-2010, 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nog

But a wolf making desperate steps would make sense.

If Skip is a wolf and pulled himself out from the lynch yesterDay with that hunter-impression he had to come up with something toDay - later the Day - when wilwa had counter-revealed and it started looking that maybe more people tended to trust wilwa than him. And that is a nice plan indeed - and makes sense.

Exactly. It's still kind of insane but certainly makes more sense than an innocent doing that. Or a cobbler.

EDIT: x-ed with Skip, Boro and Ozzy

A Little Green · 10-12-2010, 01:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skip

All that I will add is that the wolves (and the cobbler who'll probably hold his/her vote until very late) can afford to vote together today if they have to, but if one more innocent votes for another person than those who have votes already, namely Green and Lottie, they don't have to and they win. So, again, don't spread your votes, fellow ordos! We're as good as dead, but there's still a slim hope...

You seem awfully sure that the ones who voted for me and Lottie were doing the right thing. I can say for myself that voting me was stupid. I don't think Lottie is a wolf though for all I know she could be. I'd rather vote you.

Besides, if one of the votes already given is by a wolf (meaning you), it means we still have seven people to vote, only two of whom are wolves. It would be a mistake to believe the lynch is settled, or that it has to be either me or Lottie, because the case is anything but that.

EDIT: x-ed since my last

A Little Green · 10-12-2010, 01:17 PM

Oh, and the cobbler is still out there, but can we assume the cobbler knows who the wolves are and can vote with them?

EDIT: x-ed with Boro

A Little Green · 10-12-2010, 01:22 PM

Could we get enough people to vote Skip? He's our best bet I'd say. I'll vote Lottie to avoid getting lynched myself if I have to, but I don't find her all that suspicious, but like I said I'd prefer Skip.

EDIT: x-ed with Inzil

Loslote · 10-12-2010, 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Could we get enough people to vote Skip? He's our best bet I'd say. I'll vote Lottie to avoid getting lynched myself if I have to, but I don't find her all that suspicious, but like I said I'd prefer Skip.

I think we could. I'd vote him. I don't suspect you, either, and I absolutely don't trust skip.

A Little Green · 10-12-2010, 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skip

I was just stating the stone cold truth. There are three wolves and a cobbler out there and they will vote together if they have to (if the cobbler isn't stupid which I doubt) because they have nothing to lose from it if they get an innocent. then they win. That makes four votes. If they all vote me (which I find all but certain at this point) the remaining three ordos must vote for the same person, you Greenie or Lottie, to force a draw. Then we ordos might get lucky with the coin-toss.

It is possible that one or both of you are innocent, but I highly doubt it.

Unless you're a wolf, meaning that we only have two wolves and a cobbler to vote, as opposed to four ordos.

Boromir88 · 10-12-2010, 01:33 PM

Thing is Zil I think Skip is the cobbler and Ozban, well I'm feeling better about than some others so...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loslote

I think we could. I'd vote him. I don't suspect you, either, and I absolutely don't trust skip.

I don't trust Skip because I think he's the cobbler. I don't trust you in all this because weren't you the one who came in after Day 1 to say you tried to look like the seer? I thought "Makes sense I've tried that before," but now not that sure.

So, the likely cobbler-Skip or a shot in the dark for a chance at a wolf? Cobbler would still put us in a desperate situation tomorrow. I'm going all or nothing and not putting my head through another desperate situation the next day.

++Lottie

Either a wolf where tomorrow we can regather and relax from this psychotic day today or innocent and in that case it's over.

skip spence · 10-12-2010, 01:25 PM

Arg! now Holland is destroying Sweden too...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Green

You seem awfully sure that the ones who voted for me and Lottie were doing the right thing.

I'm not sure that you and Lottie are wolves. I'm pretty certain.

I was just stating the stone cold truth. There are three wolves and a cobbler out there and they will vote together if they have to (if the cobbler isn't stupid which I doubt) because they have nothing to lose from it if they get an innocent. Then they win. That makes four votes. If they all vote me (which I find certain at this point) the remaining three ordos must vote for the same person, you Greenie or Lottie, to force a draw. Then we ordos might get lucky with the coin-toss.

It is possible that one or both of you are innocent, but I highly doubt it.

Nogrod · 10-12-2010, 01:28 PM

Okay. Now back for the rest of the Day.

And this is just crazy.

Skip's maths probably work - in case he is an innocent and there are four evil-intended votes to come. But if he's not an innocent - and a wolf - and happy with the choices... that would be his best bet to kind of force us to lynch an innocent.

But even if there were four votes to come it is not the end of the game. I'm not sure if the wolves would be too happy to vote in concerto toDay as they'd still need to manage it toMorrow...

Loslote · 10-12-2010, 01:31 PM

I'd suggest voting sooner rather than later. Last-minute voting flurries often end up with cross-posting and confusion. It'd be better, I think, to vote together now (or soon) instead of right at DL.

Nogrod · 10-12-2010, 01:33 PM

To me then...

It could be Lottie whom I have suspected a long time now and whom we have failed to lynch thus far.

It could be Skip whose acts toDay look wolvish - or at least suicidal-cobblerish.

Of others I'm not too sure about.

EDIT: X'd with two votes...

Inziladun · 10-12-2010, 01:34 PM

All right. I guess someone has to take the plunge.

There doesn't seem to be any support for going after Ozban, and neither Greenie nor Lottie look as bad as skip.

++skip

x/d with Boro, Greenie, skip, and Nog

skip spence · 10-12-2010, 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Okay. Now back for the rest of the Day.

And this is just crazy.

Skip's maths probably work - in case he is an innocent and there are four evil-intended votes to come. But if he's not an innocent - and a wolf - and happy with the choices... that would be his best bet to kind of force us to lynch an innocent.

But even if there were four votes to come it is not the end of the game. I'm not sure if the wolves would be too happy to vote in concerto toDay as they'd still need to manage it toMorrow...

Nogrod, the cobbler can sit back, wait and follow the wolves lead. They'd know each other toMorrow and be 4 against 3. It would be the end.

skip spence · 10-12-2010, 01:37 PM

Ozzy and Nogrod, now I know you are innocent. Go for Lottie!

skip spence · 10-12-2010, 01:39 PM

Hold on, I miscounted, didn't I? There's still one baddie out there.

A Little Green · 10-12-2010, 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skip

Nogrod, the cobbler can sit back, wait and follow the wolves lead. They'd know each other toMorrow and be 4 against 3. It would be the end.

How can you be so sure in your pessimistic scenario that the cobbler will see who the wolves are?

Loslote · 10-12-2010, 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by A Little Green

How can you be so sure in your pessimistic scenario that the cobbler will see who the wolves are?

Well, it's not that hard to tell at the moment...just follow Skip's lead, ala Boro - who, you'll recall, wanted us to ignore Skip instead of lynching him.

A Little Green · 10-12-2010, 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skip

Ozzy and Nogrod, now I know you are innocent. Go for Lottie!

How do you "know" they are innocent? Because they haven't voted for you? Has it crossed your mind at all that an innocent might find your actions alarming too?

EDIT: x-ed since my last

Loslote · 10-12-2010, 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skip spence

Nogrod, the cobbler can sit back, wait and follow the wolves lead. They'd know each other toMorrow and be 4 against 3. It would be the end.

At the moment, I'm thinking either Boro or Nog is the cobbler, and I'm leaning towards Boro. Thought you ought to know.

Also, don't vote me. Mkay?

EDIT: x'd with Greenie

10-12-2010, 01:17 PM	#4
A Little Green Leaf-clad Lady Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 1,571	Oh, and the cobbler is still out there, but can we assume the cobbler knows who the wolves are and can vote with them? EDIT: x-ed with Boro __________________ "But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created."

10-12-2010, 01:22 PM	#5
A Little Green Leaf-clad Lady Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 1,571	Could we get enough people to vote Skip? He's our best bet I'd say. I'll vote Lottie to avoid getting lynched myself if I have to, but I don't find her all that suspicious, but like I said I'd prefer Skip. EDIT: x-ed with Inzil __________________ "But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created."

10-12-2010, 01:28 PM	#10
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	Okay. Now back for the rest of the Day. And this is just crazy. Skip's maths probably work - in case he is an innocent and there are four evil-intended votes to come. But if he's not an innocent - and a wolf - and happy with the choices... that would be his best bet to kind of force us to lynch an innocent. But even if there were four votes to come it is not the end of the game. I'm not sure if the wolves would be too happy to vote in concerto toDay as they'd still need to manage it toMorrow... __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

10-12-2010, 01:31 PM	#11
Loslote The Werewolf's Companion Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: The Moon Posts: 3,021	I'd suggest voting sooner rather than later. Last-minute voting flurries often end up with cross-posting and confusion. It'd be better, I think, to vote together now (or soon) instead of right at DL. __________________ I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris

10-12-2010, 01:33 PM	#12
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	To me then... It could be Lottie whom I have suspected a long time now and whom we have failed to lynch thus far. It could be Skip whose acts toDay look wolvish - or at least suicidal-cobblerish. Of others I'm not too sure about. EDIT: X'd with two votes... __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

10-12-2010, 01:34 PM	#13
Inziladun Gruesome Spectre Join Date: Dec 2000 Location: Heaven's doorstep Posts: 8,039	All right. I guess someone has to take the plunge. There doesn't seem to be any support for going after Ozban, and neither Greenie nor Lottie look as bad as skip. ++skip x/d with Boro, Greenie, skip, and Nog __________________ Music alone proves the existence of God. Last edited by Inziladun; 10-12-2010 at 01:37 PM. Reason: corrected x/post list

10-12-2010, 01:37 PM	#15
skip spence shadow of a doubt Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Back on the streets Posts: 1,125	Ozzy and Nogrod, now I know you are innocent. Go for Lottie! __________________ "You can always come back, but you can't come back all the way" ~ Bob Dylan

10-12-2010, 01:39 PM	#16
skip spence shadow of a doubt Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Back on the streets Posts: 1,125	Hold on, I miscounted, didn't I? There's still one baddie out there. __________________ "You can always come back, but you can't come back all the way" ~ Bob Dylan