WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth

[skip spence]

I had also hoped that the real hunter would turn out to be somebody else than Wilwa, the person most universally trusted up until toDay. Still I think a lot can be learned from all this.

[Boromir88]

Jimminy crickets oh for crying out loud. Yes, what have we learned from this Skip? Other than my brain matter has not just been splattered from banging it off a brick wall, but now you and wilwa have stomped on it and mushed it up out of pure joy it seems.

*Gives up*

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Jimminy crickets oh for crying out loud. Yes, what have we learned from this Skip? Other than my brain matter has not just been splattered from banging it off a brick wall, but now you and wilwa have stomped on it and mushed it up out of pure joy it seems.

*Gives up*

Haha, I won't lie to you and say I'm not amused.

But I'd hate to lose this game like this. I'm having dinner now but then I'm going to have a look at toDay's proceedings. Stay cool now!

[Nogrod]

Uhh...

Finland - Hungary footballgame's second half started a minute ago. I'll be back in 45 minutes...

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Skip

Okay, I see that Wilwa has come out in the open...

Was hoping that she'd understand what I was trying to do is and stay hidden, or stay hidden because she'd deem it wiser as it long seemed, but it is understandable that she didn't in the end...

Wilwa is the real hunter, of that I'm 95 % sure. I understood that already from the beginning, which is why I urged her to consider what's going on.

So, why then?

In my first post of the Day I mentioned a second reason for revealing:

Yes, I wanted the real hunter to reveal herself, if only for me, so our chances of getting a wolf toDay would increase.

Now I know Wilwa's innocent. I hope that you can believe me too when I say that I'm not a bad guy, not a wolf nor a cobbler, but a mere ordo.

If you think about what I did, but yesterDay and toDay, it makes little sense for a wolf to do so, wouldn't you say? It makes much more sense for a desperate innocent. Especially what I'm doing now. If I were a baddie, I'd have no reason whatsoever (bar a crazy double-bluff) to go out and say that Wilwa is right and that I bluffed.

Are you kidding me?

Let me get this straight. You are an innocent who decided to pretend to be the Hunter to force me to reveal myself?!? Ya know you could have just come on this morning and said "I think the Hunter should reveal" and maybe I would have (though, probably not), but faking a reveal to make me come out? I don't appreciate that kind of manipulation, especially since the only reason I did end up revealing was cause I thought that would convince people to vote you since I assumed you were guilty. I would not have revealed otherwise.

I'm so confused. I don't understand what you thought this would accomplish...

...if your innocent. Which I'm not inclined to believe. But if you were guilty it'd be pretty dumb to take back the reveal, since you could have convinced people today to go after me or someone else. But still.....it's weird.

Oh my goodness my brain hurts. And there are only 3 hours left, and I won't be here for the last of them.

x'ed with Greenie, and her first line made me laugh out loud in the middle of class

[Ozban]

I am puzzled by today's development. I like Inzil's summary of my actions, but I have nothing to add. He's got everything there.

Leaving that matter aside: I agree with Boro's post #349 .

Way I see It, we shouldn't lynch Skip nor Wilwa today. I trust Wilwa, I dunno about Skip, but It's not worth the risk. And even with all that Skip's innocent forced gifted fake-reveal, in attempt to lure the real gifted out? What the hell that was? It's all just way too crazy.

[skip spence]

You keep forgetting how this whole craziness begun. I faced the gallows and was trying to bring down Legate instead. The hunter-reveal was a spur of the moment ploy that would have been greatif Legate was guilty. Since he wasn't that put me and the village in a tricky spot and I deemed that keeping up the fake hunter-claim had it's advantages. If Wilwa had stayed hidden, which seemed likely for a good while, the scenario was perfect. I would not risk getting lynched, and Wilwa, who I now knew to be the hunter, wasn't suspected anyway. Now, with the present situation, we at least know that Wilwa truly is the hunter, right?

Will post more with my take on who the baddies are (at least for me the fog is beginning to lift, or so it seems)...

[Nogrod]

Finland lost 1-2 with a goal on the very last second of the game...

So I'm not willing to lose this as well toDay.

I do have a problem with all this now. I really do. I'll check a few things and will be back shortly.

Greenie: I can tell you what you are missing - Skip threathened Zil at the last minutes yesterDay - that was his "hunter-reveal" - and Inzil made sure Skip doesn't die (at least that is what it looks like). Today he only "came open" with it.

[skip spence]

Okay here's the people left (I'm excluding me):

Wilwa
Boro
Nogrod
Greenie
Eonwe
Inziladun
Ozban
Lottie

Of those I scratch Wilwa immediately. She is the hunter I'm sure.

Boro and Nogrod have been complete question-marks for me up until now, but at present I'm willing to bet that none of them are wolves. They both seem genuine today. It is not beyond the realm of possibilities that one of them have been fooling me so far, but if so, I can only applaud.

That leaves:
Greenie, Inziladun, Ozban, Lottie and Eonwe.

If I'm right, only one out of those five are innocent.

Now I was impressed with Inziladun's analysis on Ozban here: #336

Inzil sharply list many of the unnerving inconsistencies in Ozban's voting and reasoning. He looks even worse to me since I know I'm innocent. Also, Inzil's choice of questioning Ozban suggests that at least they are not wolves together.

Eonwe has also voted Lottie repeatedly, and suspecting her for most of the game. Am I not right Eonwe?

This would suggest that Lottie and Eonwe aren't wolves together, especially since Lottie has been suspected rather heavily right from the start.

So between between Inzil, Ozban, Lottie and Eonwe, there are probably two wolves I think. Feel best about Inzil at the moment.

Which leaves me with Greenie.

I am almost certain she is a wolf.

Please have a look at my detailed post on her earlier toDay as well. She's evil I tell you!

I understand you (innocents) can't share that feeling wholeheartedly and I'm sorry for putting you thought this. But I did what I felt I had to do.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Ozban

Way I see It, we shouldn't lynch Skip nor Wilwa today. I trust Wilwa, I dunno about Skip, but It's not worth the risk. And even with all that Skip's innocent forced gifted fake-reveal, in attempt to lure the real gifted out? What the hell that was? It's all just way too crazy.

Yeah well ya know what ended up happening because of this whole thing? People spent most of the day talking about whether to go for me or Skip, and now 3 hours before DL we have to look elsewhere, with not a lot of time to do so.
He caused us to waste our Day with that little scheme, and I'm not impressed.

Our options then, assuming no one plans to lynch me, and assuming we're all too paranoid to lynch Skip (despite how badly I want too)

Nogrod
Boromir
Ozban
Lottie
Eonwe
Inziladun
Greenie

And I don't know. Everyone goes back and forth to looking bad and looking good, and you're all just too good at this game. I need to think more.

x'ed with Steve and Skip

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Our options then, assuming no one plans to lynch me, and assuming we're all too paranoid to lynch Skip (despite how badly I want too)

Nogrod
Boromir
Ozban
Lottie
Eonwe
Inziladun
Greenie

Well if we want someone from there, I am currently the most uncomfortable with Lottie, followed by Nogrod. Lottie has seemed all too sure about this madness today. If Skip's not a wolf, and he did this scheme as an innocent which dragged out the real hunter, the wolves are having a field day today.

With the way these lynches have completely been botched so far, sure it's risky to Skip and he turns up innocent...but what about the risk in not voting for someone who as Eonwe has now pointed out just seems to be crappin' out answers as he goes along. Doesn't matter how much he contradicts himself now, it just seems like he's throwin' out whatever "don't lynch me" excuse he can come up with at this point.

[Inziladun]

Coming back into the latest soap opera development...

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'm the real hunt..

Heh. I almost did that too.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

A good point. If Skip is a baddie, he's most likely a wolf who took desperate measures to avoid getting lynched.

Agreed. It seems a convoluted ploy for an innocent to make. And a Cobbler should have been ready to take a lynch for the wolves yesterDay, instead of saving xemself.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I have the feeling I'm seriously missing something, but unless I am, nobody had voted Inzil so how was his a self-preservation vote? Please someone tell me what I've missed.

Right before yesterDay's DL, skip, who was looking like the lynchee of the Day, told me directly that I "had good reason not to vote for him". I took that as him saying he was the Hunter and had chosen me, which is why I voted Legate.

Originally Posted by Ozban

Way I see It, we shouldn't lynch Skip nor Wilwa today. I trust Wilwa, I dunno about Skip, but It's not worth the risk. And even with all that Skip's innocent forced gifted fake-reveal, in attempt to lure the real gifted out? What the hell that was? It's all just way too crazy.

You don't want to lynch either of them? Who, then?

x/d with Steve, skip, and Wilwa

[Ozban]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

You don't want to lynch either of them? Who, then?

Like the hell I know!

Whom do you want to see on the stake?

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Inzil

Right before yesterDay's DL, skip, who was looking like the lynchee of the Day, told me directly that I "had good reason not to vote for him". I took that as him saying he was the Hunter and had chosen me, which is why I voted Legate.

Ah. Figured. I noticed that too but somehow my brain didn't connect it to this "self-protection vote" -thing. Makes much more sense now. Thanks.

[Eönwë]

Now what if I were to say that I am the real Hunter?
Ok, ok, just joking.



*Picks up pieces of brain scattered around the room*

Ok, but seriously:


So, in reality, I think it makes more sense that Wilwa is really the hunter. Skip, on the other hand, I'm not sure.

These are the possibilities (all of the ones possible):

1. Wilwa is the hunter and Skip is innocent.
2. Wilwa is the hunter and Skip is a Cobbler.
3. Wilwa is the hunter and Skip is a Wolf.
4. Wilwa is an innocent and Skip is the Hunter.
5. Wilwa is an innocent and Skip is a Wolf.
6. Wilwa is an innocent and Skip is the Cobbler.
7. Wilwa is an innocent and Skip is an innocent.
8. Wilwa is the Cobbler and Skip is the Hunter.
9. Wilwa is the Cobbler and Skip is an innocent.
10. Wilwa is the Cobbler and Skip is a wolf.
11. Wilwa is a Wolf and Skip is the Hunter.
12. Wilwa is a Wolf and Skip is an innocent.
13. Wilwa is a Wolf and Skip is the Cobbler.
14. Wilwa is a Wolf and Skip is a Wolf.

Ok, now the scenario for each:

1. What Skip wants us to believe is the truth. We have no other proof, but it is a possibility, as innocents may sometimes pretend to be Gifteds in order to try to help the village, but if you like at his reasoning it is contradictory, so it doesn't really seem as though he's thought it through enough for this.

2. More likely. Skip tries to stay alive until toMorrow (his reveal is so that the wolves don't kill him until then), and can then assist the wolves in order to let them clinch the game. In addition, it adds more confusion, and would allow him to say things that the rest of the village would trust as an almost certain Innocent. Luckily, Wilwa intervened.

3. Skip tries to save himself yesterDay, and has to back it up toDay with a Hunter reveal. Benefits are that he is likely not to get lynched and that him not getting killed would not raise any suspicion (though it wouldn't really, what with him being a top suspect yesterDay, but maybe he thought to just in case). On the other hand, it is risky, especially if the real Hunter does eventually reveal, as was the case.

4. Wilwa is trying to shield Skip the Hunter, so wolves won't see a threat in him in the hope that they would vote him in the Night, to the same effect (but with less risk). Or she could be trying to get him lynched to let him possibly take down a wolf, and make it a Now-or-never situation at the end of toDay. On the other hand, she could think he's a Wolf or Cobbler and is trying to call him out on it and get him lynched. That is also an option.

5. See 4.

6. See 4.

7. Both are innocent. Both are trying to shield the true Hunter. Each may think it's the other (more likely on Wilwa's reveal) or think that the Hunter is still out there. Any of them might also be trying to draw out wolves, but this is a much more likely possibility for Skip's reveal, and he's not saying Wilwa is suspicious. Or, as Skip suggested for himself, any of them might be trying to get the Hunter out in the open (again, more likely for Skip's but Wilwa may just be intensifying it).

8. Wilwa counter-reveals to cast us into doubt over Skip's reveal. Mass confusion ensues. Skip then tries to hide himself, hoping he can hide behind a hopefully innocent person trying to help him, but may be trying to get Night-killed.

9. Skip may be telling the truth, and then Wilwa may have just been trying to confuse us all by counter-revealing instead of the real Hunter, in order to stay alive another Day and Night.

10. Skip fake-reveals to save himself and has to back it up. Wilwa realises he is a wolf and tries to cover him, and he accepts. Unlikely because it requires some co-ordination. Or maybe Wilwa thinks he's innocent and tries to get him lynched. Or Wilwa thinks he really is the hunter and tries to undermine him, which he uses to use advantage by hiding behind her.

11. Skip reveals because he feels he needs to, for whatever reason (claim yesterDay, the right time, etc.). Wilwa tries to undermine him (very risky) so that he both isn't trusted, and so that effectively has lynch-protection, and won't arouse suspicion if not killed. Alternatively, she could be trying to test whether he really is the Hunter so that she knows whether to avoid him at Night. Or she thinks he is the Cobbler, and is somehow trying to co-ordinate something for toMorrow or might be sacrificing him for the good of her wolf-pack. Or she thinks he's innocent and shielding the Hunter, and just wants to discredit him, or maybe help bring out the real Hunter.

12. Skip is telling the truth. Wilwa thinks he is the Hunter and tries to undermine him. Or Wilwa thinks he's an innocent trying to shield the Hunter and wants to bring out the Hunter. Or Wilwa thinks he's a Cobbler and is trying to show him that she knows he's one.

13. Wilwa knows he's the cobbler and tries to show him. Wilwa thinks he is the Hunter and tries to undermine him. Wilwa thinks he is an innocent and tries to force him to admit that he's not really the Hunter, and so discredits him.

14. Both Wolves. A cunning plan to confuse us all for the rest of the Day and hopefully both survive.




I personally think 1 or 2 is the most likely, but because of what Wilwa said earlier, I don't think we should dismiss 4 totally. And 7 is always an option.


Note: I started this post about an hour ago, so my thoughts may have slightly progressed by the end from what they had in the beginning.


edit: actually x-ed with Greenie too (same post as last time, i.e., the long one).

[A Little Green]

I'm the real hunt..

No. I'm not. I'm just getting a bit too confused.

Originally Posted by Skip

Haha, I won't lie to you and say I'm not amused.

Hope you'll excuse me for not being amused at all. I was already kind of starting to make sense of the two reveals when you turned the whole thing upside down again. The thing is, I can't see why an ordo would fake a reveal. If you wanted the hunter to come out so we had a known innocent, fine, so did many others, and that would almost make sense in some twisted way. Instead, you said you didn't want the hunter to reveal, so - what? I haven't thought this through yet, but this far I haven't come up with a plausible reason for an innocent to make a fake reveal. It would, though, make sense if you were a wolf almost facing the gallows and deciding to pose as Hunter to survive through yesterDay's voting (that would point to Zil's innocence?) and this Day. Then when the real Hunter comes out, you realise she's more credible than you, so you turn the whole thing around again and claim you're just an ordo who revealed as Gifted. Repeat: I haven't thought this through, in fact I'm still processing things, just wanted you guys to be aware of my thought processes.

That said, my massive collection of quotes I wanted to comment on has mostly lost its importance due to recent developments. A few things though.

Originally Posted by Boro

Do his actions at the lynch yesterday look Cobblerish? Would a cobbler really fight that hard to stay alive and be that defensive throughout when a cobbler who doesn't know who the wolves are, basic purpose would be to die at some point?

A good point. If Skip is a baddie, he's most likely a wolf who took desperate measures to avoid getting lynched.

Originally Posted by Inzil

I understand someone wanting to save himself. After all, that's why I voted Legate, despite having no real idea that he might be a wolf.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Zil's vote seems to have been a self-preservation vote as well. As such it doesn't tell one of his affinities though.

I have the feeling I'm seriously missing something, but unless I am, nobody had voted Inzil so how was his a self-preservation vote? Please someone tell me what I've missed.

Originally Posted by Eonwe, before Wilwa's reveal, underlining mine

Though I'm inlcined to believe that she genuinely does disagree with Skip's reveal for the good of the village, her talk of the true hunter (if it's not Skip) staying hidden could be a clever wolvish ploy to seem as innocent as she does, yet would also make sure that the Hunter says hidden at this point when we need xem to reveal most. But she does seem genuine. I don't know. I suppose my doubts of her innocence due to this point arise from the fact that I adisagree and don't think that what she's saying would be best for the village. That said, I've finally come to the conclusion that I think she's innocent, or at least innocent enough for me not to vote her unless something drastic happens before the end of the Day.

I don't know why but this passage struck me as strange, especially the underlined part. Not sure if I can explain it so that anyone can understand what I mean, but I'll try. Somehow, from the tone of that, it looks as if he knows Skip isn't the hunter even though he had said, in his previous post, that he believes the reveal. I know he's just making a scenario of under what conditions it would make sense for a Wilwawolf (wow, I love that word!) to disagree with Skip's reveal. Rather, in his scenario he is assuming Wilwawolf knows Skip is not the real hunter, but a wolf would have no way of knowing that! He is clearly not suggesting that Skip and Wilwa are fellows, though, either. What pops into my mind is that Eonwe is Skip's fellow, and the knowledge of that kind of slipped into Wilwawolf's thinking in his scenario.