Werewolf LXXXI: Under the Misty Mountains

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I checked the admin thread, and there Foley says she won't be here at all today and only for the last couple hours tomorrow. Well well- I wonder what she'll say to being made a Rep under her circumstances.

Crap, indeed, actually now I see that I have read it, should've remembered that. Well, I hope she's around at least a bit still...

We have a bit fewer Representatives now, which is a pity, on the other hand, the numbers might possibly get thinner as the village gets smaller - which can be dangerous as well.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Okay, I've been thinking, and besides giving Nog a second vote or giving Sally a try, I'm considering giving Wilwa a second chance to prove herself. Anyone else up for that?

I just started to think - as I was reading through these - that now actually it will be a time to start looking for possible reps lifting SoE to Rep positions toDay. Of course, we know very little, but let me just remark to this now. This raised my attention this time, as Wilwa's record is somewhat suspicious from my pov (see above), and of course in combination with phantom, who I think even as a SoE would be bold enough to vote his fellows for Reps rather openly, this might be a way of "circulating SoE among the Reps" - i.e. one day tp is there, the other day it's him voting wilwa, basically making sure there's at least somebody every Day. Same could go even for phantom-sally if sally is a SoE after all, there of course might be more to it then basic "repayment for what you did for me yesterday". Nonetheless, phantom in the end didn't vote them, but only because there wasn't anymore the option for him. But let me say this even generally: if there is some "circulation of Reps" in the future (A votes B, B votes C, C votes A or something like that), especially on the later Days when the village is smaller, then that should definitely be noted.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I think it not unlikely one of these two is Lottie's fellow. My guess is that it might be Sally, and that Lottie, and perhaps Sally as well, took phantom's post at #10 as a pledge of loyalty from the Unknown Orc. Then perhaps Lottie took Sally's post at #12 as a signal that it was OK to vote phantom. (Note that in each case it could have been a misinterpretation– that doesn't matter.)

That is all speculation, of course– I could be completely out in all this. The point I am making is that Lottie and Sally's voting patterns are not the massive obstacle to a Sallyelf theory that they've been taken as.

This "review" was actually quite good and helped me to once again think of the situation there better. I must say that Nerwen is right here that indeed the double-vote from both sally and Lottie is not so improbable to have been from two SoE. Still, just the sort of general, well, perhaps probability, makes it easier for me to imagine sally as innocent. Also the chance of Lottie seeing a phUndecidedOrc here - still, we cannot determine for sure whether even in such a case, it really was a signal, or if Lottie really reacted just based on that. To me, at least, interpretating this as "signal" sounds rather farfetched - but then again, Nerwen thinks so and I am not Lottie, and maybe she might have thought similarly to Nerwen? Well, another of many points to consider in relation to, sigh, the phantom (I would like some time to get some points to consider about somebody else!).

It would have been perhaps good to likewise analyse Mira's relation to the whole subject, as the last phantom-voter, but actually, she hasn't been around so much now, has she? Actually, there were quite many people who were not so active during the first half of toDay - I would like to see them further, if it's possible. People like Kath, or Celuien (would really like to look at her now that I have considered her votes)...

Generally, a few thoughts on people after this: considering all I said now, it once again shifts my view of tp even a bit more to the innocent side - or, at most, thinking (if Nerwen's interpretation was correct) that tp could be the undecided orc, if not innocent (basically, not Lottie's fellow, that was the point). I am still thinking quite good of Nerwen, although of course the whole post could have been made to further frame innocent sally or on the other hand, make us think Lottie and phantom are not fellows. Considering how Nerwen and tp have been upon each other, though, it would be curious to find them fellow Wolves - on the other hand, perhaps in circumstances we have, especially if you do not need to become a Rep yourself, you can go into large-scale fights with your packmate and still not worry about it, as long as you don't get into the position where you should vote for them.

I am quite happy with the Reps we have, especially Steve I still trust quite a lot, Folwren (if she is around) also seemed okay. I actually haven't focused on shasta much this far, perhaps this is a good time and good chance to start. Nog is nice choice too, although I don't have particular opinions on him in this game, but then again, I think if I had, it would have meant that I found something suspicious about him, which I did not.

Off for a while, will be back in several hours. Looking forward to see some posts... May The Phorc Not Be Among Them in excessive amount.

[A Little Green]

I'm pretty happy with our reps. All of them, in fact. I'm pretty sure Shasta and Foley are innocent, and Nog, Steve and Legate are all players I'm inclined to find more innocentish than not but that I'd love to get a better feel of. Looking forwards to seeing what they will do! I'm feeling optimistic right now.

Originally Posted by Noggins

Let's see a pack of representatives emerging from the voting!

What a choice of words..

Originally Posted by Lommie

Wilwa seems fishy but possibly in an innocent way

Eh? How can you be fishy in an innocent way?

Nerwen's post about Sally, Lottie and phantom is very interesting. Certainly doesn't make me feel better about Sally.

[A Little Green]

Is there anyone around? I wouldn't mind a chat.

[Kath]

I'm sorry. I was fully intending to vote toDay but I thought it was by 7pm (my time) today that we had to vote for Reps. 48 hour Days are complicated! Anyway I'll get reading and try to come up with something useful.

I've skimmed the last couple of pages and to answer, I think it was phantom, I wouldn't have voted sally for Rep. Well, I don't know. I certainly wouldn't want you BOTH as Reps - one or the other maybe. I would have gone for Lommy as I think she did well yesterDay ... or maybe Legate as he seems to be pretty involved and sounds innocent to me. Nerwen as well possibly, her nitpicky fighting with phantom suggests innocence to me - she's often a little more blase as a wolf (Elf, whatever). As to the idea of making quieter players Reps to try and draw them out - fine if they're quiet because they're lurkers, not so fine if they're quiet because they're just plain not around as you may well end up with votes getting lost.

Off to read. Will probably make that list of opinions phantom asked for.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Nerwen's post about Sally, Lottie and phantom is very interesting. Certainly doesn't make me feel better about Sally.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Also the chance of Lottie seeing a phUndecidedOrc here - still, we cannot determine for sure whether even in such a case, it really was a signal, or if Lottie really reacted just based on that. To me, at least, interpretating this as "signal" sounds rather farfetched - but then again, Nerwen thinks so and I am not Lottie, and maybe she might have thought similarly to Nerwen? Well, another of many points to consider in relation to, sigh, the phantom (I would like some time to get some points to consider about somebody else!).

I wouldn't want to depend too much on my own reasoning there, either to discount phantom as an SoE or show Sally must be one– as I said, it's just speculation. However, Lottie's "Legate-180" on phantom is odd enough that it's worth trying to think of an explanation. One thing that stands out is that Lottie's vote for phantom was probably not something pre-arranged during the Night– so we shouldn't argue from the assumption that it was, as some I think have been doing. (That's not absolutely certain, though– her reluctance could have been staged, of course.)

Originally Posted by Legate

It would have been perhaps good to likewise analyse Mira's relation to the whole subject, as the last phantom-voter, but actually, she hasn't been around so much now, has she?

Has she been around at all since her original vote?

EDIT:X'd with Kath; added comment.

[Kath]

About the kill: Given Izzy's focus on Lottie as being guilty it makes sense for her to be Night killed. I think it was her who said 'usually I can get Glirdan's guilt but this time I've got nada' or something along those lines. Possibly could have been read as a Seer hint, as well as her pursuit of Lottie.

phantom - to be honest I can never read him. Don't like his playing style. Doesn't mean he's evil. If he's good then great, let's hope he plays for his side to win this game.

wilwa - I quite like her explanation of her behaviour yesterDay. It was calm, measured and sensible. Not to say she doesn't know how not to come off as defensive if evil, but it looks okay to me. This: "if he's just an Ordo who was maybe trying to protect the Seer for a Night (though I can't see Phantom putting himself in the line of fire like that, at least not on the first Day)." she's wrong about - phantom often does that. Or some other strange plan that puts himself in the firing line rather than an actual Gifted. I see no problem with her splitting her vote either. Well, no, about the undecided Orc. While they hadn't officially chosen to be evil before Night 2 there is no reason they couldn't play towards that decision previously to that. AND wilwa reads that post of sally's as 'well done phantom'. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe she WAS saying that. It just didn't read that way to me. wilwa was a little flippant about the defensiveness thing, but when you've been suspected for just trying to give an explanation enough times it does get irritating. "Kath: since she hasn't been on much, being a rep might get her to participate more." See my earlier post for why this might not be a good idea! If you do it, just make sure someone tells me!

sally - "There's very few better ways to test Phantom than to give him power, and the best time to do that is on the first Day when he can be vocal and annoying but do hopefully very little damage. And look at that, we got a wolf." Someone suggested that this was sally saying 'we voted phantom and he got us a wolf'. I don't think that's what she's saying. The two comments are next to each other but not related. I don't really like the 'I thought Lottie was wolvish but didn't want to comment on it' part. Being incoherent is fine, so long as you're imparting some information about your thoughts! (Well, at least, I posted a paragraph of utter rubbish about two games ago but at least it showed some evidence of what I was thinking - don't know if anyone picked out what I was trying to say though. ) Quite like her post about phantom though. It is a good description/explanation of his playing. Um, why when Nerwen pointed out what Shasta actually meant did sally still find it suspicious but when Shasta makes exactly the same point it's ok?

Inzil - "I could see no reason he would have legitimately revealed on Day 1, so I was already sceptical. But why would the elves not have taken him anyway to be on the safe side? There's no one to protect him." Because of exactly what you just said, you've answered your own question. No one thought it was real, they probably thought they had a better target in Izzy, and they figured leave him be to dominate more of the discussion toDay. "Kath- She's playing?" <-- Pah. Kinda repeating what others have said on phantom ... but then so am I.

Celuien - phantom had an interesting point about Celuien with the vote for Boro, got to say I didn't pick up much from her yesterDay when I skimmed through.

Nerwen - "If you're not the Seer, you've made a false reveal that might bring the real one out in the open– and again, for no good reason." To phantom, but nah - pretty much every player here is seasoned and has played with him. Whoever is the Seer was never really going to take that seriously enough to reveal. Also, he revealed at the end of the Day and there was time enough and posts enough the next Day for any suddenly panicked Seer to think it over and not reveal in response. (I worry that I've just read phantom's post where he says the exact same thing - we rarely agree that much. ) Got to say I'm not totally happy with her focus on phantom actually, contrary to my earlier post. Her list of how phantom is playing is what he does every single game. Yeah I'm with her about what Shasta meant about how he'd rather sally had been lynched yesterDay. I don't think that was a particularly suspicious statement. Very interesting post about sally/phantom/Lottie. Good to have all those posts together and spelled out a bit. Interesting point on wilwa - when she's gleeful she has been wolvish in the past.

Shasta - I recall liking him yesterDay. He felt sensible. Ah but it was him who (to me) misread sally's post. I'm agreeing with most of what he's saying. Though I think he's missed some things. Those who said Lottie being guilty makes sally look better did explain their reasoning. This misunderstanding about him saying he'd rather have sally dead, it's quite interesting seeing the reactions to it. Who jumps on it as a slip and who disregards it. Yeees being aggressive ... but actually in a good way, he's making good points. Though I'd watch that, truly offending people isn't fun.

Greenie - agrees with me about sally. Ah and misread that post as well. Apart from that though I like Greenie here. She feels to be asking interesting and pertinent questions.

Legate - well, phantom DID reveal after Lottie's lynch was secured, but I actually think that makes him look more innocent as it didn't mess up the end of the Day or have the chance of any effect on the votes. He wasn't suspected enough to need to save himself with such a stunt. Good thoughts on what happened yesterDay I think. Happy with him as a Rep.

Rune - yup, completely agree with him about phantom. Fair point about sally. For both her and Lottie to vote phantom and be evil is a little unlikely. Not impossible though as they may have thought more people would jump on that given it was Day 1. Hmm, which is what Nerwen says, kinda agree there. Good list post. Reasoning behind everything.

Nog - short and sweet. Is this really Nog? Though I kind of agree with Shasta. We can't assume the phantom has been dreamt of. And with only one Elf down we can't assume that the Seer wouldn't keep quiet even if they had dreamt of phantom and found him to be evil. Ah he's playing statistics about sally. Fair enough.

Eonwe - sums up the phantom/Nerwen fight pretty well. Nice thinking on phantom's lack of voting. No, no I don't agree with him and Legate. phantom was in NO danger at the end of yesterDay when he 'revealed' - so that's not a reason for the reveal.

Lommy - being the mediator toDay! Some good points though I think. I'm actually pretty happy with Lommy so far this game so kudos to her if she's evil. And a Lommy flip-flop on wilwa. Due to questioning or re-reading. The answer to that might say something.

Conclusions coming shortly.

But first - quick point:
Aggressive/abusive: And I apologize for the strong wording here, but your third point is dumb.

Playing the game: For those who don't have time to read this post, this is just more Sally taking everything I say out of context as per usual in an attempt to make herself look better.

We've all seen nasty arguments and people getting very upset about things that have been said. Let's not go back to that eh? Keep things game-relevant. Being cross about being argued with/suspected/misunderstood doesn't give you the right to tell someone else they're stupid.

[Kath]

Conclusions ... and before anyone complains, this is ALL based on the previous commentary post.

Not sure:
phantom - yeah, no clue.

sally - suspicious, and not exonerated by Lottie's death. However, I do feel it more unlikely than likely that she and Lottie would have voted the same, so close together, if both Elves.

Celuien - would like to see more from her.

Nog - hmm, hmm. Well, his constant assurances that the Seer will deal with the phantom may just be that he's very confident in our Seer ... but to exonerate anyone with that reasoning isn't sensible. I don't think that's quite what he's doing though. Not sure here.


Leaning innocent:
Nerwen - it's weird. Some posts I read and think she's aggressive and really over-making a point. And then she makes a brilliant post like that sally/phantom/Lottie one and my whole opinion changes. For now I'd say I was fairly happy with her.

Shasta - I'm feeling okay about him.

Greenie - feels innocent.

Legate - like I said feeling good about him.

Rune - would like to see more of him but happy so far.

Eonwe - not convinced about his thinking on phantom's reveal but otherwise I'm happy with him.

Lommy - would like to see more on her thoughts about wilwa, otherwise she feels good.


Leaning guilty:
Inzil - I'm not sure. I actually do feel suspicious of him. I do think it was odd to focus so on phantom's 'reveal'. But maybe I'm too used to dismissing phantom's actions.

wilwa - is playing a little ... 'gleefully' is my word for it which can mark wolvishness. That said, the actual content of her posts seems thought through even if I don't always agree with it. BUt again no reason she couldn't manage this as an Elf.

Now I've been doing this for 3 hours and am tired! I will try to answer questions and keep on track though as I will be around on and off til deadline now I think.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lommie

Phantom - all in all, he seems more innocent and guilty, simply like the cunning yet annoying plotty-phanty.

I read this sentence aloud to Lommy and she asked me to clarify that it is a typo and should read "more innocent than guilty".

Other than that - I really like Kath at the moment. I'm unsure of what to make of Nog's insistence that the Seer should concentrate on the Sally-phantom-matter. While Nerwen's analysis of Wilwa made me more wary of her, I'm still more inclined to find her innocent than not.


EDIT: x-ed with another Kath!