WW LLXVIII: Yar Har Har and a Bottle o' Rum - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Macalaure · 07-03-2010, 01:25 PM

Obviously, the guilt or innocence of votes depends crucially on Morsul's role.

Eonwe -> Glirdan. Let's just skip this one.

Wilwa -> Eonwe(1). It's interesting that she mentions Eonwe for the first time in her vote post, but backs it up with several quotes (and comparatively little comment, which is suspicious already on its own). This doesn't feel right. With quotes and everything, Wilwa makes her vote reasoning look too big to think it's just an early-Day1-"I don't know what else to do"-vote. It must have been on her mind already, but then, why didn't it make the way into her earlier posts?

Morsul -> Nerwen. You can't really say anything about this vote either way.

Rikae -> Morsul(1). A bit kneejerk, but more in line with the typical "I don't know what else to do" than Wilwa.

Inzil -> Eonwe(2). It should be noted that the majority of Inzil's points against Eonwe came before Morsul showed up. His vote is therefore logical and not an attempt to save him. Whether Inzil's case is sound is another thing. I don't think, however, that Inzil is the kind of fish who would make a long pursuit of a random innocent on Day1. The one thing that worries me is

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inzil

I don't guess I'll vote Morsul ToDay.

in his vote post. Even though Rikae's vote was right before his, it was just an arbitrary vote and it was not clear at that point that many others would follow (everybody else merely expressed annoyance, not intent to vote - an important reason why f.ex. Shasta voted Morsul was exactly because of the new Eonwe waggon). So, does Morsul have a special place in Inzil's mind?

Shasta -> Morsul(2). Shasta is trying to save Eonwe. Quite obviously, Morsul and Shasta are not fellow fishes. It might be that Fishasta is trying to make himself look good by distancing himself from a sketchy bandwaggon, but I don't think it's too likely.

Autume -> Morsul(3). The cobbler finds an easy victim in Morsul, possibly believing that Eonwe might indeed be evil.

BG -> Morsul(4).

Quote:

Originally Posted by BG

I have a bad feeling about this but...
++Morsul

Very fishy. "I have a bad feeling" are the words of a fish knowing that the lynched one is innocent, so she can still get out of the resulting questions the next Day by saying "I thought so...". It is also, as far as I can see, the only actual point BG makes all of yesterDay.

Nerwen -> Eonwe(3). The suspicion is weak, as she admits, but if Morsul is evil, I doubt evil Nerwen would have voted to save him this obviously. If Morsul is innocent, she still could be a fish choosing between two innocents. It's hard to tell.

Mac -> Eonwe(4). I explained my reasons in my last post.

Glirdan -> Eonwe(5). The crucial vote that put Eonwe in the lead. I think the fact that Glirdan obviously made quite an effort to make up his mind well in little time makes him look ok, even if Morsul is evil. If Glirdan is evil, he certainly knows how to act.
Then again, he is an actor... hmm...

EW -> Eonwe(6). The Elf-warrior confuses me quite a bit thus far. As usual with late inconsequential bandwaggon votes, it's hard to tell. He waited til the last minutes, which is not necessarily suspicious, but he did avoid having to make the actual decision between Eonwe and Morsul.

Suspicious:
Blind Guardian

Somewhat suspicious:
Wilwa, EW

Not sure either way:
Morsul, Inzil, Nerwen, Glirdan, Boro

Somewhat innocent:
Rikae, Shasta

Rikae · 07-03-2010, 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

Lol the others above stated reasons not mine.

Um, ok. Which ones?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inzil

It just looks odd that you completely abandoned that suspicion of Rikae in favour of voting Eönwë, not even mentioning it again, even though you posted early toDay before Rikae explained herself.

Hm. I don't like this at all. If it looks odd (though it doesn't, really, to me), it's in a way no innocent should go pointing out for all to see.

Inziladun · 07-03-2010, 02:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by me

It just looks odd that you completely abandoned that suspicion of Rikae in favour of voting Eönwë, not even mentioning it again, even though you posted early toDay before Rikae explained herself.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Hm. I don't like this at all. If it looks odd (though it doesn't, really, to me), it's in a way no innocent should go pointing out for all to see.

If I'm understanding your meaning, that doesn't make sense. Why shouldn't I point it out? I saw a major inconsistancy there. He said "I accuse you, Rikae", and then voted for Eönwë, saying nothing more about you yesterDay.

Glirdan · 07-03-2010, 02:46 PM

Oh I really hate doing this this early, especially since there has been barely any actual chatter toDay, but I have to vote like now seeing as I know I will not be back for DL....So, I'm going to go with the only other person I have any real suspicions on:

++Morsul

His supposed random vote yesterDay for Nerwen is really bugging me. Also, it is quite possible that he is using the fact that we all know he does this one post and vote thing in most games he's played in before and is using it as a cover.

Sorry guys, but I gotta go. Hope to be around more for Day 3.

Rikae · 07-03-2010, 03:16 PM

Inzil, I definitely had the impression you were talking about EW not mentioning me toDay.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inzil

not even mentioning it again, even though you posted early toDay before Rikae explained herself.

You pretty clearly say "toDay" there, and indeed, it makes more sense - I wouldn't have expected someone to mention previous suspects who had no chance of being lynched in a vote-post. In fact, you also mentioned EW's lack of suspicion toward me toDay earlier, although more in the context of defending yourself, wasn't it? It does look as if you're trying to draw attention to an overnight dropping of suspicion, which is not, in my book, an innocentish thing to do.

Shastanis Althreduin · 07-03-2010, 04:32 PM

Here and reading, but distracted. I'll post in a bit.

Blind Guardian · 07-03-2010, 01:46 PM

Why am I suspicious? Because I didn't know who to vote for? There where two people that were either going to get lynched, you have to vote for one of them. If I voted for say Nerwen I would have had to explain my vote, going on nothing. These where the two people to vote for: I didn't like everyone voting Eönwë, but there was very little on Morsul either. I figured voting Morsul was the best thing to do. I kinda figured he wasn't going to get lynched but I figured Eönwë wasn't hairy :P Though she might have been something else, Morsul I didn't know. It was kinda a wild vote.

Edit: xed with rikae

wilwarin538 · 07-03-2010, 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I don't like Wilwa's vote analysis very much. All it considers is vote placement, which, with few people around until the deadline, is not in the voters' hands too much. With this little to back up the analysis, her conclusions seem too certain.

My conclusions were not 'certain', and I said they were completely based on the votes and nothing else. I certainly don't plan on basing any suspicions on my little vote analysis alone, it was just something to get the day started, since there wasn't much else exciting that happened yesterDay.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Wilwa -> Eonwe(1). It's interesting that she mentions Eonwe for the first time in her vote post, but backs it up with several quotes (and comparatively little comment, which is suspicious already on its own). This doesn't feel right. With quotes and everything, Wilwa makes her vote reasoning look too big to think it's just an early-Day1-"I don't know what else to do"-vote. It must have been on her mind already, but then, why didn't it make the way into her earlier posts?

No, I was barely around yesterDay, most of his posts I think were even made while I was gone. There weren't too many posts to begin with so it was easy to catch the pattern.

Morsul the Dark · 07-03-2010, 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

Why am I suspicious? Because I didn't know who to vote for? There where two people that were either going to get lynched, you have to vote for one of them. If I voted for say Nerwen I would have had to explain my vote, going on nothing. These where the two people to vote for: I didn't like everyone voting Eönwë, but there was very little on Morsul either. I figured voting Morsul was the best thing to do. I kinda figured he wasn't going to get lynched but I figured Eönwë wasn't hairy :P Though she might have been something else, Morsul I didn't know. It was kinda a wild vote.

Edit: xed with rikae

hmmm.... Odd here.... BG is very odd throughout the game but I think this post is a culmination of that...

Probably voting BG... will see if anything develops slow day...

Blind Guardian · 07-03-2010, 04:48 PM

I don't see anything wrong with that. Explain your self more.

Blind Guardian · 07-03-2010, 04:49 PM

By the way, I'm an odd person.

Yes! Finally the paged turned!

Morsul the Dark · 07-03-2010, 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

I don't see anything wrong with that. Explain your self more.

Quote:

Why am I suspicious? Because I didn't know who to vote for? There where two people that were either going to get lynched, you have to vote for one of them. If I voted for say Nerwen I would have had to explain my vote, going on nothing. These where the two people to vote for: I didn't like everyone voting Eönwë, but there was very little on Morsul either. I figured voting Morsul was the best thing to do. I kinda figured he wasn't going to get lynched but I figured Eönwë wasn't hairy :P Though she might have been something else, Morsul I didn't know. It was kinda a wild vote.

You didn't Vote Nerwen because "You'd have to explain it." Maning you wanted a vote that could blend in.

Seems to me you can now claim you didn't help lynch an innocent...

And then like a Nerwen vote... You have nothing to back it up...

++BG

Shastanis Althreduin · 07-03-2010, 05:36 PM

Quote:

If I voted for say Nerwen I would have had to explain my vote, going on nothing.

Morsul, I think you're misrepresenting BG a bit here. She was pretty clearly using Nerwen as an example, not saying that she was going to vote her.

However, BG, Morsul does have a point. Are you saying you voted mainly to avoid having to explain a vote in general?

Blind Guardian · 07-03-2010, 05:41 PM

No, I did explain it didn't I? I was just saying if I voted for someone that one person voted for it would look weird.

I gotta go now. I'll be back in a hour or so. Bye!

Morsul the Dark · 07-03-2010, 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Morsul, I think you're misrepresenting BG a bit here. She was pretty clearly using Nerwen as an example, not saying that she was going to vote her.

However, BG, Morsul does have a point. Are you saying you voted mainly to avoid having to explain a vote in general?

I was continuing her example... Although my fault I didn't make that clear...

Inziladun · 07-03-2010, 05:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Inzil, I definitely had the impression you were talking about EW not mentioning me toDay. You pretty clearly say "toDay" there, and indeed, it makes more sense - I wouldn't have expected someone to mention previous suspects who had no chance of being lynched in a vote-post. In fact, you also mentioned EW's lack of suspicion toward me toDay earlier, although more in the context of defending yourself, wasn't it? It does look as if you're trying to draw attention to an overnight dropping of suspicion, which is not, in my book, an innocentish thing to do.

Not the overnight changing of TEW's mind, but the fact that yesterDay he'd put that out against you so forcefully and then let it go. Saying "I accuse you" is about as direct as one can get, and why make a statement like that at one point, and not bring it up again the same day, with no reference to having second thoughts about you, or something like that? And if TEW, before I brought up the subject toDay, had said he didn't suspect you any more, and here's why, I might have thought what you're saying: possible Gifted, and I wouldn't have mentioned it. But it didn't happen that way.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

You didn't Vote Nerwen because "You'd have to explain it." Maning you wanted a vote that could blend in.

Seems to me you can now claim you didn't help lynch an innocent...

And then like a Nerwen vote... You have nothing to back it up...

++BG

Really don't know about this. That seems kind of flimsy, Morsul. You also kept your hands quite clean yesterDay through a safe vote.

x/d with Shasta

Morsul the Dark · 07-03-2010, 05:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Really don't know about this. That seems kind of flimsy, Morsul. You also kept your hands quite clean yesterDay through a safe vote.

x/d with Shasta

True I'll admit, though I was busy and trully hadn't known it was Day 1... And I really Was confused by what was going on due to a lot of piratey talk

Inziladun · 07-03-2010, 09:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rikae

I "misunderstood" because you explicitly said "toDay", as I pointed out in a previous post. Your attempts to cover your tracks aren't working.

I thought I covered that here.

Quote:

Originally Posted by me

Not the overnight changing of TEW's mind, but the fact that yesterDay he'd put that out against you so forcefully and then let it go. Saying "I accuse you" is about as direct as one can get, and why make a statement like that at one point, and not bring it up again the same day, with no reference to having second thoughts about you, or something like that? And if TEW, before I brought up the subject toDay, had said he didn't suspect you any more, and here's why, I might have thought what you're saying: possible Gifted, and I wouldn't have mentioned it. But it didn't happen that way.

Morsul the Dark · 07-03-2010, 08:47 PM

Just noticed Rikae brought up my last point...

Inziladun · 07-03-2010, 09:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

Back now...

WOO! I thought my saying that would make everyone talk!

Saying what? That you considered how your vote would be perceived when deciding who to vote for? Are you saying you only said that to get a rise out of people?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

Okay, I won't over do this but:

Morsul->BeiGei
Wilwa->Glirdan

anyone else leaving? This doesn't help me at all, luckly I have all Day. Right now they both look bad, but I wouldn't vote either. Anyone wanna speak up? Any wolves? No one? Okay, no problem, I'll wait.

If two people "both look bad", why not vote one of them? I don't follow your reasoning there.

x/d with Boro

Blind Guardian · 07-03-2010, 10:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Saying what? That you considered how your vote would be perceived when deciding who to vote for? Are you saying you only said that to get a rise out of people?

If two people "both look bad", why not vote one of them? I don't follow your reasoning there.

x/d with Boro

No, not really. Don't you READ!

Iunno maybe because I HAVE TWO HOURS LEFT!

07-03-2010, 02:46 PM	#4
Glirdan Energetic Essence Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Where Lark Nor Eagle Ever Flew Posts: 3,285	Oh I really hate doing this this early, especially since there has been barely any actual chatter toDay, but I have to vote like now seeing as I know I will not be back for DL....So, I'm going to go with the only other person I have any real suspicions on: ++Morsul His supposed random vote yesterDay for Nerwen is really bugging me. Also, it is quite possible that he is using the fact that we all know he does this one post and vote thing in most games he's played in before and is using it as a cover. Sorry guys, but I gotta go. Hope to be around more for Day 3. __________________ *I'm going to buy you a kitty, I'm going to let you fall in love with the kitty, and one cold, winter night, I'm going to steal into your house and punch you in the face!* Fenris Wolf

07-03-2010, 04:32 PM	#6
Shastanis Althreduin Werewolf Psychic Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water. Posts: 2,832	Here and reading, but distracted. I'll post in a bit. __________________ Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV

07-03-2010, 08:47 PM	#19
Morsul the Dark Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 3,448	Just noticed Rikae brought up my last point...