WW LLXVIII: Yar Har Har and a Bottle o' Rum

[The Elf-warrior]

Inzil, the error I thought I spotted was that Nerwen was suspicious of Blind Guardian and Eönwë. Yeah, that's probably a mountain out of a molehill. I'm not even sure now I can call what you said a full fledged error.

Originally Posted by Inzy

You changed your mind about Nerwen in your next post, but you seem to have totally forgotten about 'accusing' Rikae. And I, not Rikae, was your initial focus toDay.

I can see your point. After all, it was Rikae who initially seemed to think that Nerwen was only accusing Blind Guardian. However, speaking of mountains out of molehills, the line that made me suspicious of Rikae turns out to an injoke from RL werewolf.

Glirdan, my vote for Eönwë is suspicious. It's very exculpatory of me to say that now. Here's why I voted for Eönwë:I noticed that my two possible suspects, Nerwen and Rikae, had a grand total of one and zero votes while Morsul and Eönwë had a number of votes on them. Why do I list Nerwen too even though I backed down from suspecting her? It's the thought process that went through my head.

So I thought I'd make my vote count (and ward off accusations of making a throwaway vote), and I thought Eönwë was more suspicious of the two top vote getters. The arguments against him seemed sensible to me although I personally hadn't gotten a bad feeling about him like I did with Rikae. Also, Morsul's vote seemed in character for him to me, thus rendering it a flimsy ground for suspicion in my mind.

Rikae, in regards to misunderstanding the rule of three, I see your point. However, I was under the impression that it didn't work.

[Macalaure]

Some comments and then off to analysing votes.

I don't like Wilwa's vote analysis very much. All it considers is vote placement, which, with few people around until the deadline, is not in the voters' hands too much. With this little to back up the analysis, her conclusions seem too certain.

Inzil is quite defensive about EW's analysis, not giving any other input so far toDay.

Glirdan looks better toDay, although his jump on EW is a bit too quick, I think.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Apparently he votes Eonwe because he feels the Morsul-voters are a rescue party?

Not really. I had my own suspicions of Eonwe and agreed with other people's. I was still undecided, though, and the Morsul-waggon suddenly running away with somewhat sketchy votes kind of forced my hand. Eonwe was my best suspect and my only chance at doing something about the Morsul-votes.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

And just because you're the first one who voted Eonwe makes you look completely innocent?? I would beg to differ. If anything, all of us who voted for him should be under some suspicion today and I will not deny that those of us who voted later probably look more suspicious.

This reaction looks rather strange to me. Wilwa didn't say she was innocent, said nothing about her vote at all.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

But for me, who is really jumping out at me is Elf-Warrior. When I had voted yetserDay, I was under the impression that only Boro and I were the only two who had not voted at that point, thus making me think I had two options: 1) Break the tie or 2) Throw away my vote. I wasn't going to throw away my vote seeing I actually had some suspicions yesterDay. Then, eight minutes after I had voted and two minutes before deadline, EW pops up, votes Eonwe and completely sealed his fate. This smells very fishy to me..

This TEW suspicion makes me wary as well, since it seems to be just latching onto what I said of him earlier.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Uhm, I actually didn't say anything about my vote looking bad or not. I don't really make a habit of anylysing my own votes. So I don't know what you're saying, cause I never said my vote made me look innocent. (though, it doesn't really make me look bad, in comparison to later voters)

Your vote in itself being the first doesn't make you necessarily look more innocent than the later ones, since laying the groundwork for a bandwagon can be done by a wolf in relative safety. However I have no particular reason to suspect you at the moment, as you've been fairly sensible.

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

I can see your point. After all, it was Rikae who initially seemed to think that Nerwen was only accusing Blind Guardian. However, speaking of mountains out of molehills, the line that made me suspicious of Rikae turns out to an injoke from RL werewolf.

It just looks odd that you completely abandoned that suspicion of Rikae in favour of voting Eönwë, not even mentioning it again, even though you posted early toDay before Rikae explained herself.

[Glirdan]

So I'm in a pickel as I have to vote in about an hour and half at the latest as I probably will not be around for DL tonight....yet there is nothing really to go off of at all at the point.

I'm still quite leary of Morsul, but he hasn't said much today for me to vote him. TEW has made a slightly reasonable argument in his defense for his vote...but I still believe he warrants watching.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Nothing much to say -Eonwe is already in the lead at this point, and Glirdan's points, though reasonable, have already been said by others. A very safe vote, I'd say.

Just to point out that at the time of my vote, Eonwe and Morsul were tied in votes.

[Macalaure]

Obviously, the guilt or innocence of votes depends crucially on Morsul's role.

Eonwe -> Glirdan. Let's just skip this one.

Wilwa -> Eonwe(1). It's interesting that she mentions Eonwe for the first time in her vote post, but backs it up with several quotes (and comparatively little comment, which is suspicious already on its own). This doesn't feel right. With quotes and everything, Wilwa makes her vote reasoning look too big to think it's just an early-Day1-"I don't know what else to do"-vote. It must have been on her mind already, but then, why didn't it make the way into her earlier posts?

Morsul -> Nerwen. You can't really say anything about this vote either way.

Rikae -> Morsul(1). A bit kneejerk, but more in line with the typical "I don't know what else to do" than Wilwa.

Inzil -> Eonwe(2). It should be noted that the majority of Inzil's points against Eonwe came before Morsul showed up. His vote is therefore logical and not an attempt to save him. Whether Inzil's case is sound is another thing. I don't think, however, that Inzil is the kind of fish who would make a long pursuit of a random innocent on Day1. The one thing that worries me is

Originally Posted by Inzil

I don't guess I'll vote Morsul ToDay.

in his vote post. Even though Rikae's vote was right before his, it was just an arbitrary vote and it was not clear at that point that many others would follow (everybody else merely expressed annoyance, not intent to vote - an important reason why f.ex. Shasta voted Morsul was exactly because of the new Eonwe waggon). So, does Morsul have a special place in Inzil's mind?

Shasta -> Morsul(2). Shasta is trying to save Eonwe. Quite obviously, Morsul and Shasta are not fellow fishes. It might be that Fishasta is trying to make himself look good by distancing himself from a sketchy bandwaggon, but I don't think it's too likely.

Autume -> Morsul(3). The cobbler finds an easy victim in Morsul, possibly believing that Eonwe might indeed be evil.

BG -> Morsul(4).

Originally Posted by BG

I have a bad feeling about this but...
++Morsul

Very fishy. "I have a bad feeling" are the words of a fish knowing that the lynched one is innocent, so she can still get out of the resulting questions the next Day by saying "I thought so...". It is also, as far as I can see, the only actual point BG makes all of yesterDay.

Nerwen -> Eonwe(3). The suspicion is weak, as she admits, but if Morsul is evil, I doubt evil Nerwen would have voted to save him this obviously. If Morsul is innocent, she still could be a fish choosing between two innocents. It's hard to tell.

Mac -> Eonwe(4). I explained my reasons in my last post.

Glirdan -> Eonwe(5). The crucial vote that put Eonwe in the lead. I think the fact that Glirdan obviously made quite an effort to make up his mind well in little time makes him look ok, even if Morsul is evil. If Glirdan is evil, he certainly knows how to act.
Then again, he is an actor... hmm...

EW -> Eonwe(6). The Elf-warrior confuses me quite a bit thus far. As usual with late inconsequential bandwaggon votes, it's hard to tell. He waited til the last minutes, which is not necessarily suspicious, but he did avoid having to make the actual decision between Eonwe and Morsul.

Suspicious:
Blind Guardian

Somewhat suspicious:
Wilwa, EW

Not sure either way:
Morsul, Inzil, Nerwen, Glirdan, Boro

Somewhat innocent:
Rikae, Shasta

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

Lol the others above stated reasons not mine.

Um, ok. Which ones?

Originally Posted by Inzil

It just looks odd that you completely abandoned that suspicion of Rikae in favour of voting Eönwë, not even mentioning it again, even though you posted early toDay before Rikae explained herself.

Hm. I don't like this at all. If it looks odd (though it doesn't, really, to me), it's in a way no innocent should go pointing out for all to see.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by me

It just looks odd that you completely abandoned that suspicion of Rikae in favour of voting Eönwë, not even mentioning it again, even though you posted early toDay before Rikae explained herself.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Hm. I don't like this at all. If it looks odd (though it doesn't, really, to me), it's in a way no innocent should go pointing out for all to see.

If I'm understanding your meaning, that doesn't make sense. Why shouldn't I point it out? I saw a major inconsistancy there. He said "I accuse you, Rikae", and then voted for Eönwë, saying nothing more about you yesterDay.

[Glirdan]

Oh I really hate doing this this early, especially since there has been barely any actual chatter toDay, but I have to vote like now seeing as I know I will not be back for DL....So, I'm going to go with the only other person I have any real suspicions on:

++Morsul

His supposed random vote yesterDay for Nerwen is really bugging me. Also, it is quite possible that he is using the fact that we all know he does this one post and vote thing in most games he's played in before and is using it as a cover.

Sorry guys, but I gotta go. Hope to be around more for Day 3.

[Blind Guardian]

Why am I suspicious? Because I didn't know who to vote for? There where two people that were either going to get lynched, you have to vote for one of them. If I voted for say Nerwen I would have had to explain my vote, going on nothing. These where the two people to vote for: I didn't like everyone voting Eönwë, but there was very little on Morsul either. I figured voting Morsul was the best thing to do. I kinda figured he wasn't going to get lynched but I figured Eönwë wasn't hairy :P Though she might have been something else, Morsul I didn't know. It was kinda a wild vote.

Edit: xed with rikae

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I don't like Wilwa's vote analysis very much. All it considers is vote placement, which, with few people around until the deadline, is not in the voters' hands too much. With this little to back up the analysis, her conclusions seem too certain.

My conclusions were not 'certain', and I said they were completely based on the votes and nothing else. I certainly don't plan on basing any suspicions on my little vote analysis alone, it was just something to get the day started, since there wasn't much else exciting that happened yesterDay.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Wilwa -> Eonwe(1). It's interesting that she mentions Eonwe for the first time in her vote post, but backs it up with several quotes (and comparatively little comment, which is suspicious already on its own). This doesn't feel right. With quotes and everything, Wilwa makes her vote reasoning look too big to think it's just an early-Day1-"I don't know what else to do"-vote. It must have been on her mind already, but then, why didn't it make the way into her earlier posts?

No, I was barely around yesterDay, most of his posts I think were even made while I was gone. There weren't too many posts to begin with so it was easy to catch the pattern.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

Why am I suspicious? Because I didn't know who to vote for? There where two people that were either going to get lynched, you have to vote for one of them. If I voted for say Nerwen I would have had to explain my vote, going on nothing. These where the two people to vote for: I didn't like everyone voting Eönwë, but there was very little on Morsul either. I figured voting Morsul was the best thing to do. I kinda figured he wasn't going to get lynched but I figured Eönwë wasn't hairy :P Though she might have been something else, Morsul I didn't know. It was kinda a wild vote.

Edit: xed with rikae

hmmm.... Odd here.... BG is very odd throughout the game but I think this post is a culmination of that...

Probably voting BG... will see if anything develops slow day...

[Blind Guardian]

I don't see anything wrong with that. Explain your self more.