T-I-G WW LXXIV: War of the Wolves

[wilwarin538]

[note] Wilwa planned to write that song days ago, before any roles were handed out. [/note]

OK. So I agree with what some said about how we shall have far more information tomorrow. And if each wolf pack chooses a hunter, and then the hunter chooses one of the Lovers, that's 5 people dying at Night. I know that's probably unlikely to happen, what with all the Rangers around and all. But still, we need to get wolves, because if we don't today, then by tomorrow they will likely make up half of the village. Which admittedly would increase our chances of lynching one, but still.

Question for the moddess: will we be notified when a wolf dies, of which pack they are from?

Cause that makes a difference, still not sure though which way would be smarter. I mean we could try to get rid of one wolf pack all at once to decrease the night kills, but then at the same time if we do that then we're helping the other wolf team because they can't win unless the other pack is gone. But then if we dwindle each wolf pack down it decreases their chance of winning, but we still will have 2 Night kills which sucks. Plus if we're not told their packs when they die then it's not like we could try to plan that out anyway. This double pack thing is whacky.

So I have to go eat a lot of food so that when the crazy lab people steal my blood I don't pass out. I will try to come on as soon as I get back, but I likely won't make sense until later in the day, because I'll probably be feeling a bit whoosey. Just warning you.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

still not sure though which way would be smarter. I mean we could try to get rid of one wolf pack all at once to decrease the night kills, but then at the same time if we do that then we're helping the other wolf team because they can't win unless the other pack is gone.

By way of explaining my last one as I noticed I didn't do it in that post there above.

The bolded part is the one that raises my eyebrows. There is wolfpack A and wolfpack B - and there is no difference which one of them devours us. So as soon as we get our first wolf we need to hope for the next one being from the same pack, whichever of them it is. And then the third from the same pack. It doesn't matter which one it is. But the way you bring it up feels to me like it mattered to you Wilwa, like you saw it was kind of unfair if we in a way "helped" the other wolfpack.

It's a totally different thing whether we can make any deductions as to which lupine action points towards which possible combination of wolves to "direct" our lynches...

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Nog

But the way you bring it up feels to me like it mattered to you Wilwa, like you saw it was kind of unfair if we in a way "helped" the other wolfpack.

Wilwa does make a point we'd be helping the second wolfpack by getting rid of the first since Pack A can't win until Pack B is gone. However, I'll have to go with the sentiment that "a wolf is a wolf" at this point. We have to lynch one before we can put him/her into a team. Still, I don't see this as a real sign against Wilwa.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

That is indeed a highly peculiar thing to say. Though, you'd think a Wolfwa would be more careful.

I refreshed my page and I could have sworn there was more to this quote. Something about how it looked like Wilwa was advising us not to lynch wolves, but it seems to have disappeared. *stares suspiciously at Nerwen*

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I refreshed my page and I could have sworn there was more to this quote. Something about how it looked like Wilwa was advising us not to lynch wolves, but it seems to have disappeared.

Yep. I re-read it and realised she wasn't saying that, at least. Should have made a note about the edit– I'll do it now.

[Pitchwife]

Continuing (still in order of appearance, and coming to some of the loudmouths now, so this is getting longer)

Legate
#21: is concerned about the amount of killings to expect and the percentage of wolves in the village, ponders the mechanics of revivals;
#27: appeals to Morsul not to be heedless, doesn't get people's reactions to Izzy's post about wilwa's song*, is worried whether I applauded him too much or not, agrees w/ Lommy that we can't afford to waste votes;
#32: comments on wilwa's # 25 that weeding out one pack won't work except by luck, retorts to Nog's remark about him and Lommy;
#35: says the situation is not quite as dire as it looked, for Hunter kills may work for us; accepts Morsul's defense against accusation of heedlessness; is scared of Nerwen (who isn't?); says Nog makes good remarks about wilwa but may have furry motives; thinks my #33 was too unserious and 'toy-posting'; agrees w/ Lommy about the same point as Nerwen in #37.
Conclusion so far (at the risk of applauding too much once again): looks reasonable & constructive, makes some good comments on game dynamics; valuable if innocent, and no reason for me to think otherwise yet.

Morsul
#22: a list ! Tewie and wilwa 'evilish' for posting song parodies, not liking Shasta for posting as Nilp, nothing on Zil, watching Nerwen and sally, suspects Izzy for joking lynch suggestion (all this admittedly preliminary);
#29: defends himself against Legate who said he was acting heedlessly.
Conclusion so far: typical Morsul. I see where Legate's remark about him was coming from, but let's give Morsul some credit - that was one of the first posts that actually made an attempt at playing, and the very first to throw out some suspicions with reasons (however improvised) instead of banter.

Lommy next. That'll take some time...

*PS for Legate's enlightenment: Nerwen's first post last game started with 'Yay! Go wolves!', while wilwa was all bouncy optimism how good it looked for the village; both were wolves, and they won.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Lommy next. That'll take some time...

Hey! Unfair! You have already made five posts, I have only two. You are the loudmouth here.

Legate and Pitchwife are both looking better now, but I still don't trust them. Nerwen seems genuinely innocent, which doesn't point at anything. Nogrod looks quite good too even though poor him is busy. I'm also quite liking Zil and Kit's recent posts. The problem is, it's very unlikely they're all good and innocent. Falling back to my old "oh no, I don't suspect anyone" habit, I guess... Not nice.

Where's Boro, btw? And I'd also like to hear more from Shasta and EW, but I guess I just have to wait patiently as all the gentlemen are American... (timezones)

I can already say this won't be an easy Day for decisions... I guess I could just be nice towards Ewie and Kit - if they don't do anything too suspicious - since he is playing first time after a long time and the second has been incredibly many times wrongfully lynched on Day1 and I've always been in the bandwagon... But other than that, not much inclinations either way yet.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, just a short sum-up for now:

Worried about:

Pitchwife - rather "safe" list-posts and the fact that he applauds me so much (yes, again... *sigh* sorry), as I have said earlier. It's sort of irrational thing, but I am mightily scared that something about it isn't just right. And given the amount of Wolves, the chance is pretty big that he might be one.

Also when re-reading, I became worried about TEWie-Sally and such discussions in the beginning... I mean "happy band of Wolves goes to picnic, what will we do in the first hours of Day 1 when nothing much is happening, let's have a chat". Of course, that would mean that they would have to be packmates.

Hard to say:

Nogrod
Nerwen - she is "slightly reasonable", but somewhat careful-ish. Well, as if one could catch Nerwolf on basis of something.

Not worried about:

Lommy - for some reason, not looking like her Wolfish self.
Morsul - looking like his innocent self (although that said, I haven't been playing with him for some time, so he might have "developed").

Otherwise not much ideas about:
Kitanna
Inziladun
Boro (not appeared yet)
Wilwa
Shasta
Isabellkya

In relation to some of the later named, and also to Sally and TEWie (in other words: the people who chatted here at the beginning of the Day), I'd like to see more posting from them. Of course it's probably a timezone-thing, but that means that likely by the time they appear my activity will already be on the decline. So hope to see them posting still.

(sort of half-xed with Lommy and x-ed with Pitchwife )

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Where's Boro, btw?

Student teaching darling, which is why I asked about the DL. During the week, I'm completely unavailabe until well pretty much now. Then finishing up any extra work, settling down...etc. But the 9 pm DL gives me 4-5 hours to catch up, post and do all that jazz, which I'll be starting on...now.

Although with the time zone differences, I guess this means we won't have much time together? 'Tis a pity.

[Pitchwife]

Lommy:
#24: answers Legate about revival mechanics, agrees with his concern about the number of wolves, is worried by the presence of two packs, warns against wasting votes and voting random (good point); gives a list of impressions so far (which I won't recap here, because most of it is just either/or);
#34: thinks I'm too careful/serious, agrees with Nog about wilwa's question in #25, is pessimistic about the killing speed; wilwa's song not a cobbler hint as there is no cobbler; agrees w/ Nerwen's call for discussion of game mechanics and offers some ideas, which I'd like to comment on:

Originally Posted by Lommy

The first thing that comes to mind is that I guess it would make sense for them [i.e. the two wolf packs, Pw.]to hunt each other during the Days and innocents during the Nights, or that's at least what I'd do if I was them.

This sounds completely plausible to me - getting rival wolves lynched will help them gain our trust while they go on eating us under cover of the Night. But then -

Originally Posted by still Lommy

Anyway, that leads to the unpleasant fact that somebody who a) makes good cases against people and seems to put effort to finding wolves or b) gets a wolf lynched isn't necessarily innocent.

Both Legate (who called it a 'good remark') and Nerwen agreed with this; and it's true, of course. But what exactly is the point of stating it? In other words, is there any conclusion to be drawn from this warning that will be in any way helpful, other than that we should mistrust those who make good cases and put effort into finding wolves? In that case, whom should we trust, or rather, on what basis should we decide whom to trust? Or shouldn't we trust anybody at all? Thanks, I think we knew that to begin with...
Conclusion so far: two lengthy posts that sound reasonable enough, but most of it is actually general remarks about the situation and being wavery about people, looking more helpful than she really is (especially that last point I've just commented on).

EDIT: x-ed with Lommy's last.

[wilwarin538]

So turns out my body highly disagrees with having 3 viles of blood forcefully removed from it, so if nothing I say here makes sense, pleace forgive me as I've been trying not to faint for the last hour...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Wilwa, there is an easy answer to your question: let's get one pack down asap.

If there is anything like a choice (heh, like there would be) we should of course eliminate one team and bring the Night-kills down as soon as we can. "Helping" the other wolf-team is little compared to two Night kills.

The fact that you ask that makes me wonder your alignment though. To an innocent I think that is a selve-evident thing. (Yeah, the wolves can reduce the numbers of each other at Night as well, but we should not count on that to survive.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The bolded part is the one that raises my eyebrows. There is wolfpack A and wolfpack B - and there is no difference which one of them devours us. So as soon as we get our first wolf we need to hope for the next one being from the same pack, whichever of them it is. And then the third from the same pack. It doesn't matter which one it is. But the way you bring it up feels to me like it mattered to you Wilwa, like you saw it was kind of unfair if we in a way "helped" the other wolfpack.

It's a totally different thing whether we can make any deductions as to which lupine action points towards which possible combination of wolves to "direct" our lynches...

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I agree with Nogrod that the solution to Wilwa's question is easy. Once we catch a wolf, we should go for those who look like his/her packmates so we can lessen the horrible killing rate. Although of course we still shouldn't ignore other people who look wolvish.

Ok.

So what I was trying to say was yes we want to get a whole pack gone as soon as possble because we want to stop the double night kills, BUT one pack can't win unless the other pack is gone, so in effect by getting rid of one, yes we'll be helping ourselves, but we'll also be making the other pack's lives a bit easier.
(Nog, I don't think it's unfair, I just don't want to help the wolves out)

Now if you do the math we have a good chance of lynching a wolf, but the wolf packs also have a good chance of night killing a wolf from the other pack. Also with 3 rangers it could easily decrease the night kills. So it could turn out that maybe every Night we won't even have 2 deaths, just from maybe the packs choosing the same person, or the ranger interfering, or whatnot. So bringing down each pack to 1 or 2 each would make it far harder for them to win, than having one pack at 3 and getting rid of the other pack completely.

Is my mind just weird, cause this seems to make a lot of sense to me.

And yes, obviously it's hard to know which pack wolves are from anyway, so probably what I was saying is irrelevant since there is really no way to know which pack a wolf is from til it's dead. And even that we haven't had confirmed yet. I was just trying to get discussions started, which obviously worked....

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But Wilwa's ill, it seems. At least she's having blood tests, anyway.

Yes, the tests are because it seems likely that I have some sort of illness.

So I just typed that whole thing mostly with my left hand, cause my right arm is kind of dead and crazy sore, so I have to stop now. Plus I have lots of homework. I'll be back on later though after I get some sugar in me.

x'ed with Legate

[satansaloser2005]

K, I just have to get this out now so I can get it out of my head and make a proper post.



The next person who says something to the effect of "Sally was nice and friendly earlier toDay, she must be hiding something evil" gets my vote. I've not played with Elf before, he made a mistake (which again, was understandable), and I was trying to both introduce myself and clear up said misunderstanding. Who here doesn't do that to new kids/returning lovelies? Conspiracy? I think so!

In other news, I ain't trying this game, at least not like I did last time. I got suspected for trying too hard so if I'm going to be in trouble either way I'm not going to waste hours I could spend doing something productive doing an analysi post Having said that, I'll still be semi-active. Just not a lot of wordy brain power.


And now I'm going to go look through stuff and see what opinions I'm forming. K?






ETA: Oh, and Wilwa? *hands lots of cookies, hugs tightly* Poor dear.

[The Elf-warrior]

Ok, I've read through the thread. I personally think that a wolf wouldn't have the nerve to edit the actual content of a post after posting without a note. So, I guess I'm turning Nerwen's bad conduct into a sign of innocence. Still, that's my opinion on the matter.

I think Wilwa's remark about not wanting to help out the other team is not suspicious. Her explantation satisfies me.

Originally Posted by Legate

Also when re-reading, I became worried about TEWie-Sally and such discussions in the beginning... I mean "happy band of Wolves goes to picnic, what will we do in the first hours of Day 1 when nothing much is happening, let's have a chat".

What is happy about confusing Inzildun with Isabellkya?

Originally Posted by Lommy

EW - seems slightly nervous and at loss as for what to say.

Fair enough description of me.

Actually, Sally, we have played together before in Werewolf XLVI.Then again, I barely participated in that game. I was an innocent in that game, but let's just say I did a bad job.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Elf War-Pig

Actually, Sally, we have played together before in Werewolf XLVI.Then again, I barely participated in that game. I was an innocent in that game, but let's just say I did a bad job.

Ah, right you are. Sorry, that was ages ago and I don't think I played much in that game either. Still, I didn't remember you and was trying to be friendly, that's all. *whispers* They're onto us. Stop talking to me before they sort it out.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by wilwa

So what I was trying to say was yes we want to get a whole pack gone as soon as possble because we want to stop the double night kills, BUT one pack can't win unless the other pack is gone, so in effect by getting rid of one, yes we'll be helping ourselves, but we'll also be making the other pack's lives a bit easier.
(Nog, I don't think it's unfair, I just don't want to help the wolves out)

And what exactly would you say we should do in order to avoid helping the wolves out, or what else is the point of all this? OK, you started a discussion, but you don't seem to be thinking straight in my opinion. I'm considering your bad health, however - so get some food & rest, and we'll see.

And now, last not least:
Nog
#26: Legate & Lommy right about dire situation, but not necessarily innocent;
#28: answer's wilwa's question in the by-now-famous #25, wonders about her alignment because of it (as did I there & then);
#31: further comments on said post of wilwa's and her apparent concern about us 'helping the other wolf team'.
Conclusion so far: quieter than usual (which was to be expected, as we know he's busy); other than that, nothing out of the ordinary, except that he hasn't yet suspected me for being too careful (but Legate and Lommy are taking care of that).

Speaking of which - is it just me, or are our two L's agreeing quite a lot with each other (peppered with some occasional casual distancing)? And Nerwen with both of them?

[satansaloser2005]

Boro, stop flirting. That's my job.

*scampers off to continue her 'proper' post*

[Inziladun]

I'm in the middle of my work day after taking some time off (read: mountain of work) , so I'm trying to look in every so often and see what's going on.

Let's see...some early thoughts:

Morsul- seemed fairly in character with his first post, but then his reaction to faint criticism of it felt a little defensive.

Nerwen- is never one to take for granted. I don't necessarily read anything into that post edit people are concerned about. I think everyone's probably caught themselves making a error in quoting someone at some time or another.

Legate- Hmm. Lots of posting. A couple of things stand out.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I am mightily scared of Nerwen. Really. And given the general amount of Wolves, it isn't that far-fetched to think she might be one of them, is it...

In his very next post:

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Okay, just a short sum-up for now:

Worried about:

Pitchwife - rather "safe" list-posts and the fact that he applauds me so much (yes, again... *sigh* sorry), as I have said earlier. It's sort of irrational thing, but I am mightily scared that something about it isn't just right. And given the amount of Wolves, the chance is pretty big that he might be one.

Also when re-reading, I became worried about TEWie-Sally and such discussions in the beginning... I mean "happy band of Wolves goes to picnic, what will we do in the first hours of Day 1 when nothing much is happening, let's have a chat". Of course, that would mean that they would have to be packmates.

Hard to say:

Nogrod
Nerwen - she is "slightly reasonable", but somewhat careful-ish. Well, as if one could catch Nerwolf on basis of something.

Not worried about:

Lommy - for some reason, not looking like her Wolfish self.
Morsul - looking like his innocent self (although that said, I haven't been playing with him for some time, so he might have "developed").

Otherwise not much ideas about:
Kitanna
Inziladun
Boro (not appeared yet)
Wilwa
Shasta
Isabellkya

Nerwen- has accountably moved from someone of whom he was 'mightily scared', to 'slightly reasonable' and 'careful-ish'; he'd placed her in the 'Hard To Say' category.
Also, was Pitch really 'applauding' you? I haven't really seen any over the top 'buttering up' of you, or anything of that nature.

Pitch- Mr. Agreeable, himself. Fairly involved. Nothing to key in on at the moment.

Izzy- Nothing since early banter.

Wilwa- That remark about helping one wolf team get rid of the other was odd. I don't see how we can possibly know who belongs to what pack anyway, even if the pack indentities are given when a wolf dies. Can we really single out wolves as belonging to one pack or another? Not unless one has some inside info. Still, having blood drawn is assignable to Mordor, and I personally don't do well with needles, so I don't know if I can vote for her toDay.

Kit- Nothing of note.

TEW- Early banter, and a recent appearance. Not much to go on, and the fact that I've never played with him before doesn't help.

Sally- Solidly Sallyish.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

The next person who says something to the effect of "Sally was nice and friendly earlier toDay, she must be hiding something evil" gets my vote. I've not played with Elf before, he made a mistake (which again, was understandable), and I was trying to both introduce myself and clear up said misunderstanding. Who here doesn't do that to new kids/returning lovelies? Conspiracy? I think so!

In other news, I ain't trying this game, at least not like I did last time. I got suspected for trying too hard so if I'm going to be in trouble either way I'm not going to waste hours I could spend doing something productive doing an analysi post Having said that, I'll still be semi-active. Just not a lot of wordy brain power.

So you don't mind if we lynch you for being a submarine?

And Nog- Some decent points earlier. Nothing evil looking, at any rate. I've learned to my sorrow that the more I trust him, the more likely he is to be a wolf though. It doesn't do to take him for granted.

Boro- Who?

Which leaves Lommy- Active. Maybe a little 'Captain Obvious' stuff, but nothing radar-pinging.

EDIT-Took me a while to type. X/d with Sally and Nog. Also added Boro

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I just don't want to help the wolves out

So do you think we should refrain ourselves from lynching wolves as lynching a wolf from pack A is "helping" pack B?

But this one then?

Originally Posted by Wilwa

Now if you do the math we have a good chance of lynching a wolf, but the wolf packs also have a good chance of night killing a wolf from the other pack. Also with 3 rangers it could easily decrease the night kills. So it could turn out that maybe every Night we won't even have 2 deaths, just from maybe the packs choosing the same person, or the ranger interfering, or whatnot. So bringing down each pack to 1 or 2 each would make it far harder for them to win, than having one pack at 3 and getting rid of the other pack completely.

First of all, I agree that you have a point there I hadn't quite thought of - if the rules state that each wolf-group needs to win individually (so the total numbers of wolves are not weighed against the innocents), which I think they need to do. So getting rid of even one from the other team would be good indeed.

And saying this now like the N'th time: it is more or less impossible to target any suspicious looking person to belong to an exact wolfteam so all this discussion of whether or not to pursue one team or both is more or less academic for now. Sure. It might be different in the later Days though.

But.

What do you mean wilwa with that bolded part there? Are you saying that it is a positive thing that there are two wolf-rangers who can protect their mates from the rivalling team's attacks? Isn't that just the contrary and one more reason to get rid of one whole team asap.?


Okay. Enough.

I'll go back doing some re-reading..


EDIT: X'd with Pitch and Sally

[Nogrod]

Thinking will clearly help more than reading at this point - like Nerwen's call for thinking about the dynamics. Somehow re-reading wasn't that productive.

There was one thing though that did raise my eyebrows and it was that Nerwen editing things -issue. What bothers me there is that - and I know this from experience - a wolf is usually more conscious and more interested on every possible angle others might read her posts and thus is more prone to make such changes when realising a possibly bad wording or suspicious-looking point, or just coming to second thoughts whether that point was something one should make.

And even if editing content surely is a no-no in a werewolf-game, it is a matter of the grey-area whether it is editing in the strong sense if you're around alone and manage to make that extra change before the site makes that "last edited by..." text to the end of the post. It's like having not just yet pushed the send -button...

But the fact that Nerwen was willing to make that change and not acknowledging it in public - not wishing to fex. make just a new post entertaining the issue anew - does look peculiar.

[Pitchwife]

Continuing in order of appearance:

Zil
#7: the post that Lommy said looked reasonable but was really just banter. Which it was.
#36: thanks sally for clearing up Tewie's confusion about him and Izzy; thinks the revived could be given any of the dead's roles (this was cleared up on the Admin thread, go read); comments on Nog's 'interesting observation' about wilwa ('helping the other wolf-pack'); comments on Lommy about game dynamics, thinks getting rid on one pack in a row will be a matter of luck (which it is).
Conclusion so far: rather guarded, mostly commenting on things others said, which is not untypical for him early in the game; would be nice to hear some opinions about other people, though.

sally
#9, 11, 13, 15: dreams of eloping with Shasta Nilphreduin, some clearing up of gender & other confusion, all in all typical early D1 sallyness.
Conclusion so far: None.

Izzy
#17: suggests lynching wilwa for song parody about paper communication w/ wolves. (Which I'm assuming was joking.)
#20: elaborates her last saying to lynch anybody for joking about being evil on D1, especially wilwa.
And that's it.
Conclusion so far: jokingly suggests lynching people for jokes. I expect her to get serious when she returns & am curious whether she's going to suspect wilwa seriously (as Morsul seems to think).

Nerwen
#19: finds Tewie suspicious for not suspecting anyone (more joking).
#30: serious responses to Legate and Lommy, asks for more discussion of game dynamics, thinks some of the innocents may try not to look too innocent (meaning the gifteds, I suppose);
#37: thinks wilwa would be more careful if wolvish (referring to #25 and Nog's comment on it); agrees w/ Lommy that wolves may try to earn our trust by making cases against competing wolves.
#40: acknowledges an edit in her last, after Kit pointed it out.
Conclusion so far: like Zil, she's mostly commenting on others' posts; her comments look sensible and balanced, but she's been a terribly effective sensible wolf in the past and needs watching.
What really gives me pause is that last one - I'd have thought editing the actual content of your posts (other than typos and formatting) was an absolute no-no in WW?? Good catch, Kit.

To be continued...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

What really gives me pause is that last one - I'd have thought editing the actual content of your posts (other than typos and formatting) was an absolute no-no in WW??

Yes. Like I said, I should have noted it, but I was feeling too lazy to explain, so I just marked it as an x-post with Lommy. I'd prefer this not to be blown out of proportion.

Anyway, I'm going to bed, now. It's late, even for a night-owl like me.