Werewolf LXXII: Now There's the Truth of It! (Game Thread)

[Eönwë]

So there was no kill. This game seems to be going better than most... I mean it's only Day 3 and 2 wolves are dead, compared to only 2 ordos and a hunter.

I think the no-kill this leaves us with a few options:

1. The wolves forgot to vote.
2. The wolves did not get their kill because there was a lover kill.
3. The One Hit Wonder affected the wolves' kill in some way- either the target was the One Hit Wonder or their powers affected the voting in some way- remember that they don't know who they were:

Now do not forget this special role
For it is not known to the one who it holds

4. There is some other special role that was hidden.
5. Sally is being Sallyish- anything is possible!

As the One Hit Wonder is good as is said in The Epic Poem "them you should not fear; Their power is great, and their logic is clear" and if we assume that if there are any secret roles they are good (as the start of the a quarter of the village was werewolf) this leaves us with a ratio of 9:2 (goodies:wolves), which means we have 3 Days to get a wolf.

[Eönwë]

Ok, so since there's nothing going on now I think a list is in order:

Trust:

No-one. It gets harder to form a definite opinion either way as the game progresses.


Seem Innocent:
Inzil- Well, Formy says that he's innocent and from what Sally's said it seems that he is. He's seemed relatively innocent throughout anyway, so it's not too hard for me to believe.

Not likely to be evil:
Form- Well he might be a wolf, but then being paired with a hunter would be quite strange. I don't know. He hasn't really done anything suspicious, but then again he's said little so I don't know.

Fea- I would have added her to the the "worried about" list, but she's always like this so I don't think her being on the top of everyone's list makes her any more suspicious. And yes, she does look innocent.


Not sure:

Izzy- Well, she's started posting a lot again and this is good. Yet she hasn't really told what she thinks of everyone. On the other had, what she does say seems innocent. And we all know how sharp she is, so I don't want her to go, at least not yet.

Lottie- Not sure about her. She was in the list below for being constantly on the top of people's lists, but since she's been attacked toDay, it makes her seem less 'untouchable'. As for her actually being good or evil, I'm not sure. She posts a lot, but this doesn't make her seem either.

Rune- Very tricksy. I'm not sure what I think about him. He's not afraid to go against the crowd, but I don't know how bold he is as a wolf.


Worried about- look fair but feel foul (or at least the text equivalent):

Wilwa- Seems too perfect. Everyone says she's innocent, but without any good reason. She has kept a relatively low profile, not saying anything that's too against the general feeling, and is just careful in general. She seems to have been at the top of everyone's lists the whole time, which is quite disconcerting. But she may actually just be a very careful innocent, I don't know.

Brinn- I'm very confused about her. She hasn't seemed like an ordo so far, but yesterDay with the votes that made me think she must be. However, that may have just been a double bluff to try and get people to vote for her while she was actually a very worried wolf in reality.

Nerwen- She's also seemed innocent throughout. She has made quite a few good points here and there, also seems to have maintained a low profile, and stayed in the top half (but near the middle) of most people's lists, which is the place that has worried me most in this game.


Suspicious of:

Nog- Started off loud, but has got quieter over the course of the game. After the first Day when all the attention was on him, he seems to be trying to sneak into the background while still leaching off everyone's previous trust for him.

[satansaloser2005]

Not possibly cackling, Wilwa dear. Definitely cackling.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Suspicious of:

Nog- Started off loud, but has got quieter over the course of the game. After the first Day when all the attention was on him, he seems to be trying to sneak into the background while still leaching off everyone's previous trust for him.

Heh, did you believe I was going to be silent the whole Day and tried to sniff the wind "the right way"?

Sorry, my day was full and I only got online now.

I see some pretty heavy opportunism here... and I'm not liking it.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Heh, did you believe I was going to be silent the whole Day and tried to sniff the wind "the right way"?

Sorry, my day was full and I only got online now.

I see some pretty heavy opportunism here... and I'm not liking it.

Ok, I admit that I was wrong. It turns out you posted 14 times yesterDay and 13 the Day before. However, you have to admit that you've become less controversial since Day 1, and actually you're not your usual relentless self. It might be because you have less time now, but I'm used to you being much more controversial and aggressive, so I was a bit surprised.

[wilwarin538]

So I have a thought about the Glirdan lynch. I think the two remaining wolves may more likely be in the group of people who voted earlier, rather then those closer to the end. Because considering they had already lost 1 wolf if a few saw that Glirdan was in a lot of danger I would think that they would try to protect him more if they had a chance. So those who voted closer to the end of the Day and didn't vote for him when it was clear he was in danger, look a bit better to me.

So, copying this from Izzy:

SimonFea -> Wilwa (2)
Pitch -> Eonwe, Loslote
Loslote -> Zil, Glirdan, Nog
Pitch -> Nerwen, Fea
Fea -> Wilwa (3), Izzy
Glirdan -> Wilwa (4), Nog (2)
Wilwa -> Pitch, Fea (2)
Zil -> Nog (3), Pitch
Brin -> Izzy (2)
Fea -> Nerwen (2)
Wilwa -> Form
Rune -> Fea (3), Wilwa (5)
Nog -> Rune, Zil (2), Loslote (2)
Wilwa -> Rune (2), Glirdan (2)
Glirdan -> Fea (4)
Nog -> Form (2)
Rune -> Form (3)
Eonwe -> Nerwen (3), Fea (5)
Nerwen -> Brin, Izzy (3)
Fea -> Eonwe (2)
Izzy -> Nerwen (4), Zil (3)
Glirdan -> Loslote (3)
Zil -> Nerwen (5)
Eonwe -> Zil (4)
Eonwe -> Nog (4)
Form -> Zil (5), Wilwa (6), Rune (3), Izzy (4)
Izzy -> Brin (2), Rune (4)
Zil -> Brin (3)
Song/Poem -> Fea (6), Loslote (4), Eonwe (3)

So the last vote for Glirdan was by me, about halfway through the votes. At that point he was tied for 2 with a fair number of people. The point where he seemed to be in the most danger would be about around his own vote for Lottie, since by then alot of the 2 people were bumped up to 3 and he was still at 2.

So this makes Zil look quite good, he voted for someone who already had 4 votes, and then his last one chose Brinn over Glirdan, so there seemed to be no attempt on his part to help Glirdan. (could mean differently for him if Brinn is a wolf though)

Eonwe also looks fairly good, voting for 2 people who were at 3 votes at that point, so also seeming to not put any effort in protecting Glirdan.

Form also voted for people who already had a good amount of votes. Izzy too pretty much. So those 4 especially I see didn't really try at all to protect Glirdan when it was a good chance that he could be lynched. This of course doesn't clear them, they could have just thought it was too risky to put themselves out there to protect him, since it would likely draw attention to them the following Day. But still, for me atleast I think it makes them look a bit better.

So really the ones who look bad are me and Lottie, since we are the only 2 who voted for him. I know I'm innocent. Lottie I'm not so sure of, it could be a notch against her, I don't really know. I want to trust her, but there all a few little things that make me uneasy. I likely won't vote for her toDay.

So basically I think the wolves would more likely be in the earlier voters, since at that point it is pretty unclear who's gonna go (since a ton of people were all tied for 1 and then 2 votes) and so they may not have thought Glirdan would be in danger, and therefore used their votes on other packmates perhaps instead.

Anyway, off to do some studying, big big big test on Thursday...

I'll be back in a few hours..

x'ed with Eonwe

[Eönwë]

Ok, well I can't survive on 4 hours of sleep like yesterDay, so I'm going to try to vote earlier toDay.

I'll start with:

++Inzil

[Isabellkya]

Just a note, then I'm eating lunch, then I'm coming back.

Eonwe, I posted my thoughts on everyone towards the end of yesterDay. Just got home, so haven't posted a revised list toDay.

Wilwa, I was for the opposite actually. I stated that I wanted to see Loslote or Glirdan go over Brin. I think there was another candidate that was in danger of being lynched when I made the statement, but can't recall who - I think it was Eonwe. My last two votes were made with an extra thought. I was trying to boost other people whom were in danger up, so it wouldn't turn into a massive tie. That it would at the worst, end up in a two/three way tie with Glirdan being one of them.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

Eonwe, I posted my thoughts on everyone towards the end of yesterDay. Just got home, so haven't posted a revised list toDay.

Ah. I'm sorry, I totally forgot. I've actually been meaning to ask about that. What does this bit mean?

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

Would vote for
Nerwen/Zil
Rune/Brin
Wilwa/Eonwe
Form/Pitch
Fea/Nog
Loslote/Glirdan
Would not vote for

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Okay. After Form's explanation toDay I think we can treat him and Zil as semi-known innocents, unless some really spectacular revelation occurs.

Or, by extension, Nogrod (doesn't look too good to me in his own right, either).

I actually thought Lottie's Nienna-the-pseudo-Seer was a reasonable sort of theory at the time... but after the curious logical gymnastics that she used in her analysis of Glirdan, in which Form came out "pretty bad" for some reason, yet Nogrod remained pure as the driven snow... well.

Of course, if they are indeed packmates, Nogrod's now busy throwing Lottie under the bus, but what does that prove?

Form came out "semi-bad" for the same reason I noticed Wilwa, but nothing else looks bad. In fact, mostly he looks absolutely innocent, so I focused on Wilwa and moved Form back to "probably innocent".

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Well, you're right in that the flip-flop came after she looked at Glirdan, but she doesn't explain in that analysis why Form looks bad again.

No, he doesn't get a free pass, even though I'm leaning toward thinking him more innocent than not. It's still odd that Nog and Rune were so quick to vote for him after the narrative in which he killed Pitch, though.

See above. Was that all, Izzy?

EDIT: xed since my last

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I think the two remaining wolves may more likely be in the group of people who voted earlier, rather then those closer to the end. Because considering they had already lost 1 wolf if a few saw that Glirdan was in a lot of danger I would think that they would try to protect him more if they had a chance. So those who voted closer to the end of the Day and didn't vote for him when it was clear he was in danger, look a bit better to me.

So are you suggesting that people choose their time-zones on the basis of a ww-game situations?

Anyway. I see your point and agree with it that those who left Glirdy to die at the late moments look better - unless another wolf was at the fray as well. But be that as it may, I'm a bit curious as to why you press this point as much as you do...

So the last vote for Glirdan was by me, about halfway through the votes. At that point he was tied for 2 with a fair number of people. The point where he seemed to be in the most danger would be about around his own vote for Lottie, since by then alot of the 2 people were bumped up to 3 and he was still at 2.

So basically I think the wolves would more likely be in the earlier voters, since at that point it is pretty unclear who's gonna go (since a ton of people were all tied for 1 and then 2 votes) and so they may not have thought Glirdan would be in danger, and therefore used their votes on other packmates perhaps instead.

I mean where did you see the supporting votes to go Glirdy's way to come from, at any part of the Day? I'd say an early vote to Glirdy - and then crossing fingers - would be all his mates could do.

Do correct me if I have lost the host of confidence-pledges to him... but I think it was quite obvious he was a main candidate all Day long; not so much as someone everyone suspected but as one none wished to put into their fave-four. Not the only one though (as could be seen from the votes). So the wolves would need to try something or just offer him as a sacrifical lamb there - but having lost one already with Nienna I'd doubt the latter. So I would think it believable at least one wolf would have tried to save him with an early vote. Be it you wilwa or Lottie, hard to say. Or maybe it was you both? That would explain your to and fro with Lottie and concentrating on any early voters rather than on Glirdan-voters... (okay, I can understand why you wouldn't wish to concentrate on the Glirdy-voters only even if you were innocent...)

[satansaloser2005]

It's too quiet.


Whose Day is it for the song and dance routine?


EDIT: x'd with a Noggin and two Forms.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

So... I have a theory.

As to why nobody died last night.

Cursed villager.

I think we might have another bad guy.

[wilwarin538]

A list in the order that I trust people:

Inzil
Fea
Form
Nerwen
Rune
Nog
Brinn
Lottie
Izzy
Eonwe

So I'll just vote now then, cause I don't really see these changing:

++Inzil - I see him as being a known innocent, considering what Form said about Nienna's hunt choices, and since I trust Form

++Fea - still trust her completely.

++Form - because of the Lover thing and even from before that I did as well

++Nerwen - someone who kind of went under my radar for a bit, but now I'd like to keep her around

I'll still be around randomly for the next hour or so between study times.

x'ed with Fea...interesting, would make sense, seems like something Sally would do...

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Fea

So... I have a theory.

As to why nobody died last night.

Cursed villager.

I think we might have another bad guy.

Ooh, that is something to consider. I hope it's not so, but it could very well be a possibility.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

So... I have a theory.

As to why nobody died last night.

Cursed villager.

I think we might have another bad guy.

I was just thinking that myself... so we can't necessarily go on people's track records of seeming innocent. I mean, at least as far as who is "safe" to vote for. ToDay, though, I think it's more important to make sure one of the actually suspicious people does get lynched.

EDIT:X'd since my last post.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

So... I have a theory.

As to why nobody died last night.

Cursed villager.

I think we might have another bad guy.

Oh. Dear.

*deep sighs*

But isn't the One Hit Wonder supposed to be a good guy?

*crosses fingers it is supposed to be a good guy*

*crosses fingers, then, that it was the One Hit Wonder last night*

*glares at Sally for good measure*

++ Inziladun
++ Fea
++ Isabelkya
++ Nerwen

I'm not sold on Izzy or Nerwen being innocent, but they look better to me than the others...

...sorry, Rune.

[satansaloser2005]

I'm bored. Anyone fancy a game? Monopoly? Tic tac toe? Bingo? Anyone?


*crawls back into her hole and watches the action*

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Tic tac toe?

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