Werewolf LXXII: Now There's the Truth of It! (Game Thread)

[Isabellkya]

Yes there is going to be voting for people whom aren't on our to trust lists, but whom we may or may not want to protect.

However, I don't think it is an outrageous or bothersome thought/request - that people put game related reasons with their votes. Or some statement saying why they are voting x person over y person. Otherwise it leaves a giant gaping door open, for people to not commit to their thoughts. As well, as people being able to vote for someone whom they perhaps think is evil - and won't be called on it.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Maybe there's a secret special role that's immortal, or something.

Moddess, do I have to use up my votes from yesterDay, or do I still have 4 as usual?

EDIT:X'd with Brinn.

Just use your four like normal. *nods*

Originally Posted by Wilwa, re: Glirdan

anyone have any idea what this might mean???

Look at my and Phantom's narration. That'll give you a clue. (It'll make a lot more sense when I tidy up Mira and Nienna's narration and get it posted, which will happen soon I promise.)

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Just in case any of you were unaware of this yet--it's really quite difficult to get back into the swing of a WW game when you've effectively missed Days 1 and 2. You remember what I said back on Day 1 about mixing up deadlines? Well... I agreed to play because I thought the deadline Sally gave me was 10:00 my time, not, as it in fact is, 8:00. You saw what happened as a result of this on Day 1... well, Day 2 was about the same. I was lucky I got back in time to vote at all. As far as the Lover Revenge Kill goes, we're talking about a process that involved Sally texting me while I was gone for the weekend, me not texting back until we were well into Day 2, and I had still not seen what had happened--I only knew that my beloved Nienna was dead, and I had to lash out in fury.

(By the way, I'm very grateful indeed to my dead Hunter-Lover for imploring Sally to give me my kill mid-Day, given how low a profile I was proving to have yesterDay.)

Anyway, there was definitely a question of "who to kill?" and I was working off a hazy memory of Day 1... while driving through heavy winds up the "interstate" (we don't actually have interstates in Canada, but this expresses better for an American what I mean than "highway"). The last I had talked with my beautiful Nienna, she had been hunting Zil and Mira--in that order.

Ergo, my village, we have a Known Innocent: Zil wasn't killed, though he was first pick. At least, this is how Nienna and I understood it. So even if you won't accept that I am a Known Innocent (though as near as I can tell from Sally's poem, I seem to meet the qualifications of the One Hit Wonder), I hope you'll recognise that Inziladun is.

Anyway...

Since Zil was innocent and Mira was dead, I was out of people to vent my distraught rage against. So...

Pitchwife wasn't exactly random, but he was a shot in the dark... which obviously went awry.

And that's the story of my foiled, mad attempt to revenge myself for the death of the Most Beautiful Hunter in the World. The world is now a sad, grey, empty place without Nienna! Alas, alas for our love!

Yeah, sorry about that, dear. My internet went out as I was trying to PM you and I wanted to make sure you had time do think of who to kill, etc. And then Nienna woke me up in the middle of a really nice coma to insist that I put up your narration and stuff. Be lucky that she was paranoid you'd die, or I'd have kept sleeping.

Originally Posted by Wilwa, re: Nienna's list

That's how I understood it aswell. Cool beans!

Leaving for real now.

That is in fact how it works. Kudos.


And now I need some lunch. Emptying my PM box right now so if you've got any questions feel free to PM me and I'll get back to you ASAP.

[Eönwë]

So there was no kill. This game seems to be going better than most... I mean it's only Day 3 and 2 wolves are dead, compared to only 2 ordos and a hunter.

I think the no-kill this leaves us with a few options:

1. The wolves forgot to vote.
2. The wolves did not get their kill because there was a lover kill.
3. The One Hit Wonder affected the wolves' kill in some way- either the target was the One Hit Wonder or their powers affected the voting in some way- remember that they don't know who they were:

Now do not forget this special role
For it is not known to the one who it holds

4. There is some other special role that was hidden.
5. Sally is being Sallyish- anything is possible!

As the One Hit Wonder is good as is said in The Epic Poem "them you should not fear; Their power is great, and their logic is clear" and if we assume that if there are any secret roles they are good (as the start of the a quarter of the village was werewolf) this leaves us with a ratio of 9:2 (goodies:wolves), which means we have 3 Days to get a wolf.

[Eönwë]

Ok, so since there's nothing going on now I think a list is in order:

Trust:

No-one. It gets harder to form a definite opinion either way as the game progresses.


Seem Innocent:
Inzil- Well, Formy says that he's innocent and from what Sally's said it seems that he is. He's seemed relatively innocent throughout anyway, so it's not too hard for me to believe.

Not likely to be evil:
Form- Well he might be a wolf, but then being paired with a hunter would be quite strange. I don't know. He hasn't really done anything suspicious, but then again he's said little so I don't know.

Fea- I would have added her to the the "worried about" list, but she's always like this so I don't think her being on the top of everyone's list makes her any more suspicious. And yes, she does look innocent.


Not sure:

Izzy- Well, she's started posting a lot again and this is good. Yet she hasn't really told what she thinks of everyone. On the other had, what she does say seems innocent. And we all know how sharp she is, so I don't want her to go, at least not yet.

Lottie- Not sure about her. She was in the list below for being constantly on the top of people's lists, but since she's been attacked toDay, it makes her seem less 'untouchable'. As for her actually being good or evil, I'm not sure. She posts a lot, but this doesn't make her seem either.

Rune- Very tricksy. I'm not sure what I think about him. He's not afraid to go against the crowd, but I don't know how bold he is as a wolf.


Worried about- look fair but feel foul (or at least the text equivalent):

Wilwa- Seems too perfect. Everyone says she's innocent, but without any good reason. She has kept a relatively low profile, not saying anything that's too against the general feeling, and is just careful in general. She seems to have been at the top of everyone's lists the whole time, which is quite disconcerting. But she may actually just be a very careful innocent, I don't know.

Brinn- I'm very confused about her. She hasn't seemed like an ordo so far, but yesterDay with the votes that made me think she must be. However, that may have just been a double bluff to try and get people to vote for her while she was actually a very worried wolf in reality.

Nerwen- She's also seemed innocent throughout. She has made quite a few good points here and there, also seems to have maintained a low profile, and stayed in the top half (but near the middle) of most people's lists, which is the place that has worried me most in this game.


Suspicious of:

Nog- Started off loud, but has got quieter over the course of the game. After the first Day when all the attention was on him, he seems to be trying to sneak into the background while still leaching off everyone's previous trust for him.

[satansaloser2005]

Not possibly cackling, Wilwa dear. Definitely cackling.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Suspicious of:

Nog- Started off loud, but has got quieter over the course of the game. After the first Day when all the attention was on him, he seems to be trying to sneak into the background while still leaching off everyone's previous trust for him.

Heh, did you believe I was going to be silent the whole Day and tried to sniff the wind "the right way"?

Sorry, my day was full and I only got online now.

I see some pretty heavy opportunism here... and I'm not liking it.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Heh, did you believe I was going to be silent the whole Day and tried to sniff the wind "the right way"?

Sorry, my day was full and I only got online now.

I see some pretty heavy opportunism here... and I'm not liking it.

Ok, I admit that I was wrong. It turns out you posted 14 times yesterDay and 13 the Day before. However, you have to admit that you've become less controversial since Day 1, and actually you're not your usual relentless self. It might be because you have less time now, but I'm used to you being much more controversial and aggressive, so I was a bit surprised.

[wilwarin538]

So I have a thought about the Glirdan lynch. I think the two remaining wolves may more likely be in the group of people who voted earlier, rather then those closer to the end. Because considering they had already lost 1 wolf if a few saw that Glirdan was in a lot of danger I would think that they would try to protect him more if they had a chance. So those who voted closer to the end of the Day and didn't vote for him when it was clear he was in danger, look a bit better to me.

So, copying this from Izzy:

SimonFea -> Wilwa (2)
Pitch -> Eonwe, Loslote
Loslote -> Zil, Glirdan, Nog
Pitch -> Nerwen, Fea
Fea -> Wilwa (3), Izzy
Glirdan -> Wilwa (4), Nog (2)
Wilwa -> Pitch, Fea (2)
Zil -> Nog (3), Pitch
Brin -> Izzy (2)
Fea -> Nerwen (2)
Wilwa -> Form
Rune -> Fea (3), Wilwa (5)
Nog -> Rune, Zil (2), Loslote (2)
Wilwa -> Rune (2), Glirdan (2)
Glirdan -> Fea (4)
Nog -> Form (2)
Rune -> Form (3)
Eonwe -> Nerwen (3), Fea (5)
Nerwen -> Brin, Izzy (3)
Fea -> Eonwe (2)
Izzy -> Nerwen (4), Zil (3)
Glirdan -> Loslote (3)
Zil -> Nerwen (5)
Eonwe -> Zil (4)
Eonwe -> Nog (4)
Form -> Zil (5), Wilwa (6), Rune (3), Izzy (4)
Izzy -> Brin (2), Rune (4)
Zil -> Brin (3)
Song/Poem -> Fea (6), Loslote (4), Eonwe (3)

So the last vote for Glirdan was by me, about halfway through the votes. At that point he was tied for 2 with a fair number of people. The point where he seemed to be in the most danger would be about around his own vote for Lottie, since by then alot of the 2 people were bumped up to 3 and he was still at 2.

So this makes Zil look quite good, he voted for someone who already had 4 votes, and then his last one chose Brinn over Glirdan, so there seemed to be no attempt on his part to help Glirdan. (could mean differently for him if Brinn is a wolf though)

Eonwe also looks fairly good, voting for 2 people who were at 3 votes at that point, so also seeming to not put any effort in protecting Glirdan.

Form also voted for people who already had a good amount of votes. Izzy too pretty much. So those 4 especially I see didn't really try at all to protect Glirdan when it was a good chance that he could be lynched. This of course doesn't clear them, they could have just thought it was too risky to put themselves out there to protect him, since it would likely draw attention to them the following Day. But still, for me atleast I think it makes them look a bit better.

So really the ones who look bad are me and Lottie, since we are the only 2 who voted for him. I know I'm innocent. Lottie I'm not so sure of, it could be a notch against her, I don't really know. I want to trust her, but there all a few little things that make me uneasy. I likely won't vote for her toDay.

So basically I think the wolves would more likely be in the earlier voters, since at that point it is pretty unclear who's gonna go (since a ton of people were all tied for 1 and then 2 votes) and so they may not have thought Glirdan would be in danger, and therefore used their votes on other packmates perhaps instead.

Anyway, off to do some studying, big big big test on Thursday...

I'll be back in a few hours..

x'ed with Eonwe

[Eönwë]

Ok, well I can't survive on 4 hours of sleep like yesterDay, so I'm going to try to vote earlier toDay.

I'll start with:

++Inzil

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I think the two remaining wolves may more likely be in the group of people who voted earlier, rather then those closer to the end. Because considering they had already lost 1 wolf if a few saw that Glirdan was in a lot of danger I would think that they would try to protect him more if they had a chance. So those who voted closer to the end of the Day and didn't vote for him when it was clear he was in danger, look a bit better to me.

So are you suggesting that people choose their time-zones on the basis of a ww-game situations?

Anyway. I see your point and agree with it that those who left Glirdy to die at the late moments look better - unless another wolf was at the fray as well. But be that as it may, I'm a bit curious as to why you press this point as much as you do...

So the last vote for Glirdan was by me, about halfway through the votes. At that point he was tied for 2 with a fair number of people. The point where he seemed to be in the most danger would be about around his own vote for Lottie, since by then alot of the 2 people were bumped up to 3 and he was still at 2.

So basically I think the wolves would more likely be in the earlier voters, since at that point it is pretty unclear who's gonna go (since a ton of people were all tied for 1 and then 2 votes) and so they may not have thought Glirdan would be in danger, and therefore used their votes on other packmates perhaps instead.

I mean where did you see the supporting votes to go Glirdy's way to come from, at any part of the Day? I'd say an early vote to Glirdy - and then crossing fingers - would be all his mates could do.

Do correct me if I have lost the host of confidence-pledges to him... but I think it was quite obvious he was a main candidate all Day long; not so much as someone everyone suspected but as one none wished to put into their fave-four. Not the only one though (as could be seen from the votes). So the wolves would need to try something or just offer him as a sacrifical lamb there - but having lost one already with Nienna I'd doubt the latter. So I would think it believable at least one wolf would have tried to save him with an early vote. Be it you wilwa or Lottie, hard to say. Or maybe it was you both? That would explain your to and fro with Lottie and concentrating on any early voters rather than on Glirdan-voters... (okay, I can understand why you wouldn't wish to concentrate on the Glirdy-voters only even if you were innocent...)

[Inziladun]

With Izzy's last second vote for Brinn, which, as she would have thought, tied her with Glirdan, I'm quite comfortable with Izzy now.

Let's look at her vote tally from yesterDay.

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

Votes as they were made, so ... kind of messy. In a sense.

SimonFea -> Wilwa (2)
Pitch -> Eonwe, Loslote
Loslote -> Zil, Glirdan, Nog
Pitch -> Nerwen, Fea
Fea -> Wilwa (3), Izzy
Glirdan -> Wilwa (4), Nog (2)
Wilwa -> Pitch, Fea (2)
Zil -> Nog (3), Pitch
Brin -> Izzy (2)
Fea -> Nerwen (2)
Wilwa -> Form
Rune -> Fea (3), Wilwa (5)
Nog -> Rune, Zil (2), Loslote (2)
Wilwa -> Rune (2), Glirdan (2)
Glirdan -> Fea (4)
Nog -> Form (2)
Rune -> Form (3)
Eonwe -> Nerwen (3), Fea (5)
Nerwen -> Brin, Izzy (3)
Fea -> Eonwe (2)
Izzy -> Nerwen (4), Zil (3)
Glirdan -> Loslote (3)
Zil -> Nerwen (5)
Eonwe -> Zil (4)
Eonwe -> Nog (4)
Form -> Zil (5), Wilwa (6), Rune (3), Izzy (4)
Izzy -> Brin (2), Rune (4)
Zil -> Brin (3)
Song/Poem -> Fea (6), Loslote (4), Eonwe (3)

Glirdan 2
Brin 3
Eonwe 3
Form 3
Izzy 4
Loslote 4
Nog 4
Rune 4
Nerwen 5
Zil 5
Fea 6
Wilwa 6

I'm noting this:

Loslote -> Zil, Glirdan, Nog

this,

Glirdan -> Wilwa (4), Nog (2)
Glirdan -> Fea (4)
Glirdan -> Loslote (3)

and this

Nog -> Rune, Zil (2), Loslote (2)
Nog -> Form (2)

Here's what strikes me:

A known wolf voted for Nog and Loslote.
Loslote voted for the wolf and Nog.
Nog voted for Loslote.

Granted, when everyone has four votes, coincidences can happen. But can all that be happenstance?

x/d with Eönwë

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'm off to work. I'll be back about an hour and a half before DL when I'll decide what to do with my Simon-ness for toDay. I'm open to suggestions.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

A known wolf voted for Nog and Loslote.
Loslote voted for the wolf and Nog.
Nog voted for Loslote.

Granted, when everyone has four votes, coincidences can happen. But can all that be happenstance?

I think you have a very good point.

[Formendacil]

It's be interesting to know what the One-Hit Wonder can do--or could do, rather. If the One-Hit Wonder could save themself, then we would have another Known Innocent if they came out.

On the other hand, if they could save someone else, ala a Ranger, then if they came out we could have two more Known Innocents. However, I doubt this scenario is the case, since the game has an actual Ranger.

On the third hand (heh--I saw reference to those earlier), perhaps it's a blanket injunction--in which case I'm not sure we could have a Known Innocent... though the pandemonium that ensued could be interesting.

All that this really proves is that not putting all the roles and rules out in the open sparks more talk than anything else.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

It's be interesting to know what the One-Hit Wonder can do--or could do, rather. If the One-Hit Wonder could save themself, then we would have another Known Innocent if they came out.

On the other hand, if they could save someone else, ala a Ranger, then if they came out we could have two more Known Innocents. However, I doubt this scenario is the case, since the game has an actual Ranger.

On the third hand (heh--I saw reference to those earlier), perhaps it's a blanket injunction--in which case I'm not sure we could have a Known Innocent... though the pandemonium that ensued could be interesting.

All that this really proves is that not putting all the roles and rules out in the open sparks more talk than anything else.

*enjoys*

[Nogrod]

It was a longer day I thought it would be but I'm finally back...

Just a few comments after a quick read.

I see Brinn has a point: Izzy and Inzil could very well be innocents looking at their voting. But I must say there is a small "but" involved and that is Brinn's innocence.

If Brinn is a wolf it meant that two wolves were facing a lynch and I could see why the third wolf would rather have Brinn around than Glirdy who was clearly arousing suspicion left and right.

Looking at the "independent" (in relation to Brinn's testimony) report by Form that Nienna was hunting first Inzil and only second Mira, it would talk on behalf of Inzil's innocence.

Well enough for me for the time being, as the chance these both claims could be untrue is that we have now three wolves instead of two (it would mean we have had five wolves in a village of just 16 and I'd say that would be really unfair from Sally!) - or a very acute cobbler (which is possible even if not that believable).

So I'd believe Inzil to be innocent.

I'd also say that either Brinn and Izzy are innocents or then they both are wolves.


Coming to the issue of Glirdy then...

He was openly "trusting me" from the D1, up to being annoying - and thus screaming a wolf to me. And I think I made that clear that I thought his "rubbing me the right way" was quite the wrong way with me. So do you really think that if I was a wolf I would have just told him during the Night "oh, keep up the good work the next Day as well"? I mean really.

Lottie's vote for Glirdan is an interesting one. I have kind of liked her reasonableness thus far but her vote on Glirdy came quite out of the blue. He was in her "unsure, lean innocent" group in a list earlier yesterDay, but I didn't find any straight comments on him (didn't scroll through every page). If there was some reason, especially a reason you stated Lottie, would you enlighten us? That sure makes one wonder as I think it was clear there were not to many votes coming for trust to Glirdy yesterDay - and making an early vote for that as well (yeah, superbowl-party is a good reason, but still).

I'm more or less undecided on wilwa's vote for Glirdy. On the one hand I can understand the relationship-story, on the other I can't see why wouldn't they capitulate on that if they had a chance...

Now correct me if I miised something, but at my quick skim I found the following.


Voting for Glirdy

D1
wilwa
Brinn
Mira (wolf)

D2
Lottie
wilwa


One thing we'd need to assess as well is when the voting was done eg. what was the situation, the general mood looking at survival of this or that person etc. We're not going to make educated guesses without these considerations - like many people vote for x as y who they think is very good seems to have a host of votes enough / wolves might feel a need to vote for their companion in one situation while in another they wouldn't.

Okay. Now I need to take a break...


EDIT: no wonder... x'd with a host...

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Granted, when everyone has four votes, coincidences can happen. But can all that be happenstance?

Well, just looking quickly at yesterDay I can see:

Glirdan -> Wilwa (4), Nog (2)
Wilwa -> Pitch, Fea (2)
Wilwa -> Form
Rune -> Fea (3), Wilwa (5)
Wilwa -> Rune (2), Glirdan (2)
Glirdan -> Fea (4)
Rune -> Form (3)
Glirdan -> Loslote (3)


Wilwa votes Rune and Glirdywolf
Rune votes Wilwa
Glirdan votes Wilwa

I admit that it's not as strong, but I'm just saying that these things do happen, so I don't think we can base an argument solely on this- if you do find something suspicious, then this is a good thing to strengthen it, but I don't think it's evidence enough to be incriminating.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

It's be interesting to know what the One-Hit Wonder can do--or could do, rather. If the One-Hit Wonder could save themself, then we would have another Known Innocent if they came out.

They don't know who they are as I understand it: "Now do not forget this special role For it is not known to the one who it holds". Does that not mean that they don't know they have this role?

And didn't you say this earlier Form?:

Originally Posted by Form

though as near as I can tell from Sally's poem, I seem to meet the qualifications of the One Hit Wonder

Which you are, I guess, not sticking with since now you're talking about the One Hit Wonder revealing. And by the way, I don't agree with it because in Sally's poem it also says that: "them you should not fear; Their power is great, and their logic is clear". Which I doubt she would say if it was possible for them to kill an innocent, like what happened with the revenge kill. So I don't think you meet the qualifications.

So from what I can tell either the One Hit Wonder is what happened last Night, or it hasn't happened yet.

Originally Posted by Inzil

A known wolf voted for Nog and Loslote.
Loslote voted for the wolf and Nog.
Nog voted for Loslote.

Granted, when everyone has four votes, coincidences can happen. But can all that be happenstance?

This is interesting, but like you say coincidences are bound to happen, especially when 16 people have 4 votes. I think the further into the game we get, the more information we have, the more concrete this type of analysis will be. Not that it should be completely neglected, but it probably isn't something that can stand on it's own, it would need other things to back it up (like Eonwe just said).

x'ed with Sally, who I know has an evil grin on her face right now and is possibly cackling...

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Which you are, I guess, not sticking with since now you're talking about the One Hit Wonder revealing. And by the way, I don't agree with it because in Sally's poem it also says that: "them you should not fear; Their power is great, and their logic is clear". Which I doubt she would say if it was possible for them to kill an innocent, like what happened with the revenge kill. So I don't think you meet the qualifications.

Yes, I originally thought I might be, because I was skimming through the poem looking for proof that as the lover, I was a Good Guy... that was the closest I got. It didn't even occur to me that the One Hit Wonder probably made last night happen. Hence the later turn around--I knew I didn't do that, whatever else I may have done.