WWLXXI: Something in the Night (Attempt #2) - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Nogrod · 01-17-2010, 01:47 PM

Let's also see the pairs... (known innocents bolded)

Sally/Glirdan
Shasta/Alona
Morsul/Wilwa
Rikae/Izzy
Nog/Lottie
Dun/Lari

Looking at it now and not believeing there is a wolf-wolf PM-pair (well, there might be, but I'd think it less probable than every wolf being given as a PM-pal to an innocent) the situation would mean there were three pairs of innocents to begin with and three which had a wolf in them. Now we can say that Sally / Glirdy was one of the pairings of innocents - and I know me and Lottie was another. To you the pair, me / Lottie is an unknown of course – but I know now that both of the other two pairs with a dead innocent in them can not be innocent!

To put it plainly: either wilwa or Izzy is a wolf – or they both are. Unless there is a wolf-wolf PM-pair of course.

My problem is that the more I look at it, the less innocent-looking people I see round…

Although I have to say alona’s latest defence felt genuine. I’m torn with her right now: my reason says she must be a wolf but my feelings are confused and willing to believe her. Now what is the part played here by several people saying she’s like that / believing she could actually make such an odd comment, and what is their alignment in the game?

I’ll try to add things up a bit… in a moment. (needs to see first what has happened meanwhile as I see post being made)

Nogrod · 01-17-2010, 02:31 PM

Looking at the votes again...

Johnny 99 - Nogrod
alona (unknown) x 2 first vote of the Day

City Dude - Inziladun
Lottie (innocent) early vote
Lottie (innocent) putting her into lead over Shasta (unknown) & alona (unknown)

Gypsy Biker - Shasta
(hunter) putting him in front of Glirdy (innocent)
no vote on D2

Bad Scooter - Isabellkya
Shasta (unknown) hasty erred dl-vote
Wilwa (unknown) last minute throw-away vote

Crazy Janey - Alonariel
Morsul (hunter) ties him with Glirdan (innocent)
no vote on D2

Boardwalk Sandy - Sally
Shasta (unknown) forced to tie him with Glirdy (a known innocent to her)
no vote on D2

Jersey Girl - Wilwarin
Sally (seer) an early vote
Shasta (unknown) first vote for him before the last minute rush (only two votes had been given before)

Wendy - Lariren
Shasta (unknown) putting him into lead at the last minute - wrong dl. (tried to retract)
Lottie (innocent) early first vote

Some thoughts to follow - and hopefully in the end trying to add up all the statistics I've tried to gather.

Nogrod · 01-17-2010, 03:16 PM

So the votes.

Looking at the votes wilwa looks the worst. She voted for Sally early on D1 - which could be seen as a safe move. But her vote and action late on D2 could be read as a prime example how a thoughtful wolf would act - she voted late but before the real action begins so as not to be noticed. Well, I noticed it. But also, she said her reasons were flimsy (even if Izzy pointed out she had declared she had a lot of time in her hands - and one could see her hanging around all through the Day). After her vote she held back - like if she just enjoyed looking at things and didn't think she should take part in discussion. That's the classical wolf-error: when things are going fine you just hang around and look at the things unfolding as long as they go nice from your POV. She only bothered to defend herself when Izzy questioned her "flimsy reasons" - but that showed she was following the discussion!

Lari's first Day retraction trial looked fishy as such. After she learned that the dl was not what she thought (said she thought) she gave a concerned feeling by "retracting" but never then bothered to make an attempt to offer other ideas eg. letting us know whom else she would then have voted. So feeling comfy with how things went (or whom her vote was for), and even more comfy of the fact that no one could say she voted for X or Y? So being totally safe from any speculations as she had both voted but yet not voted - and no one could pin down her original vote as it was a rushed random sort of thing which shev regretted?

Of others Inzil looks bad as he has consistently voted for a known innocent two times - well the very same Lottie. But I'm pretty conscious of the possibility that if alona turns out innocent my record will look the same. If I have time I will look after his posts as I'm a bit uneasy with him but can't pinpoint it down to any detail right now.

Izzy's vote yesterDay looks like a throwaway, voting for a new candidate at the last minute. But there were three people to vote as yet so it's hard to say. An innocent Rikae voted for a new candidate that late as well.

Too many non-voters yesterDay. It blurs the vision.

alonariel · 01-17-2010, 04:11 PM

Borrowing from Nog here to try and work things out.

Sally/Glirdan - gifted/innocent
Shasta/Alona - unknown/innocent (yeah, I know, no hard proof yet)
Morsul/Wilwa - hunter/unknown
Rikae/Izzy - innocent/unknown
Nog/Lottie - unknown/innocent
Dun/Lari - unknown/unknownprobablyinnocent

Assuming there's no wolf-wolf pairs here. If there is already a known gifted/innocent pair, it's probable that the Hunter and/or Ranger were paired up with innocents, too. That would leave 6 others - three wolves and three innocents. So no wolf-wolf pairs with this line of thinking. This also means Wilwa is most likely innocent and that whoever is paired with the Ranger might be innocent, too.

Now for the wolf-innocent pairs. That leaves Shasta, Izzy, Nog and Dun (or Lari) as a wolf. Ugh that's five people. Well, to narrow it down, if we go along with Sally referring to the Ranger as a she, that rules out Izzy, as she and Rikae could be the third gifted/innocent pair. It also rules out Lari and Dun, as they could also be the third gifted/innocent pair. So that leaves Shasta and Nog. While I'm tempted to lean more against Shasta than Nog now that he's tried to broaden his suspicions, he is going after Wilwa who I mostly trust to be innocent and now Lari who I'm 99.9% sure is innocent.

If the Ranger is a he and Sally was just using wordplay, then that rules out Shasta/me, Nog/Lottie and Dun/Lari, leaving Izzy as a wolf paired with known innocent Rikae.

So, conclusion: I might vote either Shasta or Nog. I probably won't vote Wilwa, Lari and certainly not Sally.

Quote:

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Alona, you thought you were a logical kill choice, you said you didn't get why the wolves didn't kill you.

That was more meta coming into my reasoning - referring to the Bostonmoot games and how Shasta was like, "Honey, if I'm a wolf, you're dead Night 1. Sorry!"

Quote:

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Now, when I play with Glirdan on the other hand, it's quite nice getting a little RL break from him!

Especially cause we're always trying to kill each other in the games and I think we both kinda bug each other because our playing styles are soooo different and we surprisingly suck at reading each other, real test of our friendship! (would love it if he saw this

)

x'ed with Sally, luvs her Sally ^_^

Haha! ...I mean I'm not sending this to him via Facebook message, what are you talking about?

satansaloser2005 · 01-17-2010, 04:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alonariel

Borrowing from Nog here to try and work things out.

Sally/Glirdan - gifted/innocent
Shasta/Alona - unknown/innocent (yeah, I know, no hard proof yet)
Morsul/Wilwa - hunter/unknown
Rikae/Izzy - innocent/unknown
Nog/Lottie - unknown/innocent
Dun/Lari - unknown/unknownprobablyinnocent

Assuming there's no wolf-wolf pairs here. If there is already a known gifted/innocent pair, it's probable that the Hunter and/or Ranger were paired up with innocents, too. That would leave 6 others - three wolves and three innocents. So no wolf-wolf pairs with this line of thinking. This also means Wilwa is most likely innocent and that whoever is paired with the Ranger might be innocent, too.

Now for the wolf-innocent pairs. That leaves Shasta, Izzy, Nog and Dun (or Lari) as a wolf. Ugh that's five people. Well, to narrow it down, if we go along with Sally referring to the Ranger as a she, that rules out Izzy, as she and Rikae could be the third gifted/innocent pair. It also rules out Lari and Dun, as they could also be the third gifted/innocent pair. So that leaves Shasta and Nog. While I'm tempted to lean more against Shasta than Nog now that he's tried to broaden his suspicions, he is going after Wilwa who I mostly trust to be innocent and now Lari who I'm 99.9% sure is innocent.

If the Ranger is a he and Sally was just using wordplay, then that rules out Shasta/me, Nog/Lottie and Dun/Lari, leaving Izzy as a wolf paired with known innocent Rikae.

So, conclusion: I might vote either Shasta or Nog. I probably won't vote Wilwa, Lari and certainly not Sally.

That being said, I'd choose Nog of the two of them. I could go either way on him, while I tend to think Shasta's just really busy and has no ulterior motives.

And of course I'm not going to say anything more about the ranger, so meh.

See, now you see why my 'reveal your lovers' logic works. It seems to me we have no wolf/wolf pairings, and as far as I know there are no ordo/ordo pairings. (It's possible, but I don't think so.)

alonariel · 01-17-2010, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

That being said, I'd choose Nog of the two of them. I could go either way on him, while I tend to think Shasta's just really busy and has no ulterior motives.

And of course I'm not going to say anything more about the ranger, so meh.

See, now you see why my 'reveal your lovers' logic works. It seems to me we have no wolf/wolf pairings, and as far as I know there are no ordo/ordo pairings. (It's possible, but I don't think so.)

Did you dream of Nog? I know you can't answer that right now, I'm just thinking out loud. I didn't see the logic of revealing the lovers at first, I'll admit, but with the interesting turn things have taken with you being able to be open (mostly) and safe (mostly) for a few Days, it's definitely worked to our advantage.

satansaloser2005 · 01-17-2010, 04:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alonariel

Did you dream of Nog? I know you can't answer that right now, I'm just thinking out loud. I didn't see the logic of revealing the lovers at first, I'll admit, but with the interesting turn things have taken with you being able to be open (mostly) and safe (mostly) for a few Days, it's definitely worked to our advantage.

Regardless of my dreams, I'd prefer Nog because I feel a better case can be made against him. (Aka I'd vote for him if I was an ordo and didn't know any roles. And like you said, I'm not saying whether I dreamt him yet or not.)

satansaloser2005 · 01-17-2010, 04:26 PM

Hmmmm.

Blah. Alona, I wonder if you could answer a very simple yet important question for me. How much do you love me?

alonariel · 01-17-2010, 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Hmmmm.

Blah. Alona, I wonder if you could answer a very simple yet important question for me. How much do you love me?

Lots, of course, dear. Are you asking if I love you enough to sacrifice myself to let the Ranger live another Day?

wilwarin538 · 01-17-2010, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

See, now you see why my 'reveal your lovers' logic works. It seems to me we have no wolf/wolf pairings, and as far as I know there are no ordo/ordo pairings. (It's possible, but I don't think so.)

*ahem* Would just like to point out that the theory I had Day 1 (ya know, that one that everyone found so suspicious when I said it) actually is becoming one that others are thinking and is seeming to actually possibly be true. Just saying.

Basically, I agree with this Sally, I find it most likely that the pairings are 3 wolf-ord pairings and 3 gifted-ord pairings. So this is our situation:

Sally/Glirdan - gifted/innocent
Shasta/Alona - unknown/unknown
Morsul/Wilwa - hunter/unknown
Rikae/Izzy - innocent/unknown
Nog/Lottie - unknown/innocent
Inzil/Lari - unknown/unknown

edit: just realised that Alona posted that ^ exact same thing earlier, and I totally missed it

satansaloser2005 · 01-17-2010, 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

*ahem* Would just like to point out that the theory I had Day 1 (ya know, that one that everyone found so suspicious when I said it) actually is becoming one that others are thinking and is seeming to actually possibly be true. Just saying.

Basically, I agree with this Sally, I find it most likely that the pairings are 3 wolf-ord pairings and 3 gifted-ord pairings. So this is our situation:

Sally/Glirdan - gifted/innocent
Shasta/Alona - unknown/unknown
Morsul/Wilwa - hunter/unknown
Rikae/Izzy - innocent/unknown
Nog/Lottie - unknown/innocent
Inzil/Lari - unknown/unknown

edit: just realised that Alona posted that ^ exact same thing earlier, and I totally missed it

Hehe exactly.

So basically that would make our wolves among Izzy and Nog, along with of course Lari and Dun and possibly the Shasta/Alona pariing.

Wow. Six choices. Hard. Oh, wait, I almost forgot. I know two of those people.

wilwarin538 · 01-17-2010, 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Wow. Six choices. Hard. Oh, wait, I almost forgot. I know two of those people.

Which is why I'm pretty much gonna copy your vote. Cause I would much rather not kill the Ranger.

satansaloser2005 · 01-17-2010, 04:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Which is why I'm pretty much gonna copy your vote. Cause I would much rather not kill the Ranger.

Lol. I'd rather you didn't either.

Nogrod · 01-17-2010, 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

See, now you see why my 'reveal your lovers' logic works.

Well, if you're going to use it that way then only the ranger can save you from defeat and your use of "logic" brings the doom to us.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sally

It seems to me we have no wolf/wolf pairings, and as far as I know there are no ordo/ordo pairings. (It's possible, but I don't think so.)

I tend to agree with the first one, but I know the second one is not true.

satansaloser2005 · 01-17-2010, 04:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Well, if you're going to use it that way then only the ranger can save you from defeat and your use of "logic" brings the doom to us.

I tend to agree with the first one, but I know the second one is not true.

How so? (On both counts.)

wilwarin538 · 01-17-2010, 04:36 PM

Well the second one because he is suggesting he is an ord (making the him/lottie pairing ord-ord).

But that's interesting, cause he agrees that there are no wolf-wolf pairings, but then says there is an ord-ord pairing. But to have both there would need to be a gifted-gifted pairing aswell (do the math, I'm right), which could only be possible if I'm the Ranger.

So....this is an interesting position you've put us in Nogrod.

Nogrod · 01-17-2010, 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

But that's interesting, cause he agrees that there are no wolf-wolf pairings, but then says there is an ord-ord pairing. But to have both there would need to be a gifted-gifted pairing aswell (do the math, I'm right), which could only be possible if I'm the Ranger.

I don't know there not being wolf-wolf pairings. I just hold them highly unlikely (why waste a "discussing pair" as the wolves can discuss anyway?).

But you wilwa forget the possibility of there being a gifted - wolf pair...

wilwarin538 · 01-17-2010, 04:42 PM

Wait, or a gifted-wolf pairing (making either me or the Ranger's lover a wolf)....but like I said Day 1 I don't think that is likely because Gwath said in the admin thread that wolves may be paired with ords, but nothing about being paired with gifteds.

gah, just confusing myself again...nevermind

Nogrod · 01-17-2010, 04:33 PM

Sally, ever heard of hybris and what follows from it, nemesis.

satansaloser2005 · 01-17-2010, 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Sally, ever heard of hybris and what follows from it, nemesis.

Are you referring to hubris? 'Cause yeah, I have. And I'm not getting cocky, I'm just glad I wasn't crazy and that my maths do work out like I thought/hoped they would. You gotta problem with that, love?

Nogrod · 01-17-2010, 04:37 PM

If you lynch me - you lose. That simple.

Unless:
a) the ranger gives you one more Day to try
b) you're a wolf after some odd laziness by your real seer and then as a wolf you win

On the second one: Lottie was an ordinary innocent and I am an ordinary innocent. I do trust what the mod writes in the roles department after the narrations and the PM's he sends me concerning my role - so I tend to say I know it.

Also I know you don't know it. But I only said I know it.

01-17-2010, 01:47 PM	#1
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	Let's also see the pairs... (known innocents bolded) Sally/Glirdan Shasta/Alona Morsul/Wilwa Rikae/Izzy Nog/Lottie Dun/Lari Looking at it now and not believeing there is a wolf-wolf PM-pair (well, there might be, but I'd think it less probable than every wolf being given as a PM-pal to an innocent) the situation would mean there were three pairs of innocents to begin with and three which had a wolf in them. Now we can say that Sally / Glirdy was one of the pairings of innocents - and I know me and Lottie was another. To you the pair, me / Lottie is an unknown of course – but I know now that both of the other two pairs with a dead innocent in them can not be innocent! To put it plainly: either wilwa or Izzy is a wolf – or they both are. Unless there is a wolf-wolf PM-pair of course. My problem is that the more I look at it, the less innocent-looking people I see round… Although I have to say alona’s latest defence felt genuine. I’m torn with her right now: my reason says she must be a wolf but my feelings are confused and willing to believe her. Now what is the part played here by several people saying she’s like that / believing she could actually make such an odd comment, and what is their alignment in the game? I’ll try to add things up a bit… in a moment. (needs to see first what has happened meanwhile as I see post being made) __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

01-17-2010, 03:16 PM	#3
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	So the votes. Looking at the votes wilwa looks the worst. She voted for Sally early on D1 - which could be seen as a safe move. But her vote and action late on D2 could be read as a prime example how a thoughtful wolf would act - she voted late but before the real action begins so as not to be noticed. Well, I noticed it. But also, she said her reasons were flimsy (even if Izzy pointed out she had declared she had a lot of time in her hands - and one could see her hanging around all through the Day). After her vote she held back - like if she just enjoyed looking at things and didn't think she should take part in discussion. That's the classical wolf-error: when things are going fine you just hang around and look at the things unfolding as long as they go nice from your POV. She only bothered to defend herself when Izzy questioned her "flimsy reasons" - but that showed she was following the discussion! Lari's first Day retraction trial looked fishy as such. After she learned that the dl was not what she thought (said she thought) she gave a concerned feeling by "retracting" but never then bothered to make an attempt to offer other ideas eg. letting us know whom else she would then have voted. So feeling comfy with how things went (or whom her vote was for), and even more comfy of the fact that no one could say she voted for X or Y? So being totally safe from any speculations as she had both voted but yet not voted - and no one could pin down her original vote as it was a rushed random sort of thing which shev regretted? Of others Inzil looks bad as he has consistently voted for a known innocent two times - well the very same Lottie. But I'm pretty conscious of the possibility that if alona turns out innocent my record will look the same. If I have time I will look after his posts as I'm a bit uneasy with him but can't pinpoint it down to any detail right now. Izzy's vote yesterDay looks like a throwaway, voting for a new candidate at the last minute. But there were three people to vote as yet so it's hard to say. An innocent Rikae voted for a new candidate that late as well. Too many non-voters yesterDay. It blurs the vision. __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

01-17-2010, 04:26 PM	#8
satansaloser2005 The Sweetest Spoiler Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly Posts: 5,789	Hmmmm. Blah. Alona, I wonder if you could answer a very simple yet important question for me. How much do you love me? __________________ "My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.

01-17-2010, 04:36 PM	#16
wilwarin538 Fluttering Enchantment Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Canada Posts: 2,508	Well the second one because he is suggesting he is an ord (making the him/lottie pairing ord-ord). But that's interesting, cause he agrees that there are no wolf-wolf pairings, but then says there is an ord-ord pairing. But to have both there would need to be a gifted-gifted pairing aswell (do the math, I'm right), which could only be possible if I'm the Ranger. So....this is an interesting position you've put us in Nogrod. __________________ Comme une étoile amarante Comme un papillon de nuit C'est la lumière qui m'attire La flamme qui m'éblouit Fenris Muffin

01-17-2010, 04:42 PM	#18
wilwarin538 Fluttering Enchantment Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Canada Posts: 2,508	Wait, or a gifted-wolf pairing (making either me or the Ranger's lover a wolf)....but like I said Day 1 I don't think that is likely because Gwath said in the admin thread that wolves may be paired with ords, but nothing about being paired with gifteds. gah, just confusing myself again...nevermind __________________ Comme une étoile amarante Comme un papillon de nuit C'est la lumière qui m'attire La flamme qui m'éblouit Fenris Muffin

01-17-2010, 02:31 PM	#2
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	Looking at the votes again... Johnny 99 - Nogrod alona (unknown) x 2 first vote of the Day City Dude - Inziladun Lottie (innocent) early vote Lottie (innocent) putting her into lead over Shasta (unknown) & alona (unknown) Gypsy Biker - Shasta (hunter) putting him in front of Glirdy (innocent) no vote on D2 Bad Scooter - Isabellkya Shasta (unknown) hasty erred dl-vote Wilwa (unknown) last minute throw-away vote Crazy Janey - Alonariel Morsul (hunter) ties him with Glirdan (innocent) no vote on D2 Boardwalk Sandy - Sally Shasta (unknown) forced to tie him with Glirdy (a known innocent to her) no vote on D2 Jersey Girl - Wilwarin Sally (seer) an early vote Shasta (unknown) first vote for him before the last minute rush (only two votes had been given before) Wendy - Lariren Shasta (unknown) putting him into lead at the last minute - wrong dl. (tried to retract) Lottie (innocent) early first vote Some thoughts to follow - and hopefully in the end trying to add up all the statistics I've tried to gather. __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

01-17-2010, 04:33 PM	#19
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	Sally, ever heard of hybris and what follows from it, nemesis. __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

01-17-2010, 04:37 PM	#21
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	If you lynch me - you lose. That simple. Unless: a) the ranger gives you one more Day to try b) you're a wolf after some odd laziness by your real seer and then as a wolf you win On the second one: Lottie was an ordinary innocent and I am an ordinary innocent. I do trust what the mod writes in the roles department after the narrations and the PM's he sends me concerning my role - so I tend to say I know it. Also I know you don't know it. But I only said I know it. __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...