WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Loslote · 12-07-2009, 08:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Morsul

still another page in her recent posts to go through but I have my conclusion...

Sally Posts Constantly one "Not being able to post" which in my opinion equals... I can't give away my fellow packmates but I can't just obviously avoid contributing I don't have time sounds better...

Or she might not have time to post.

However, that last page she did have time, and I personally think she made good points.

Morsul the Dark · 12-07-2009, 08:58 PM

ehausted from looking at Sally's posts... fine.... I'll look at them....

<yawn

satansaloser2005 · 12-07-2009, 09:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loslote

Or she might not have time to post.

However, that last page she did have time, and I personally think she made good points.

My goodness what a novel idea!

And indeed I have been busy; I get loads of time but only in chunks big enough to read, say I've read and have a thought or two, and then dash off again.

Speaking of which, I'm going to try to do that analysis of Bes tonight; I didn't get it done yesterday because I was a naughty girl and put office stuff before WW.

Shastanis Althreduin · 12-07-2009, 09:08 PM

On Wilwa:

#215: Pointless.

#226: A post of Boro's doesn't make sense and seems like a lot of talk for nothing. The line "I neither preach nor teach. I am what I am, and I know what I am. Someone's got to be." she finds odd. Understands what Nog is trying to say about Roa, but agrees with Nerwen that it's not enough to make her suspicious of Roa as well. Is confident in Nog for this reason, though. Agrees with Roa about Boro not latching on to the suspicion of her (Roa) when she made her number-slip until someone else suspected her for it. Disagrees with Roa that Nog is pretending to be the Seer. Questions her, but does not suspect her. Boro makes her uneasy, Nog she's fine with and Roa is iffy.

#232: Mostly pointless. Was starting to think Roa guilty (based on Nog's case?) until Legate's reveal of her withdrawal.

#239: Boro weirds her out "but that's normal", is especially fine with Nog, is good with Nerwen and Mnemo. Doesn't see why the people who got three votes got three votes.

#346: Makes a point I actually agree with, that saying "this is how I would act/have acted as a wolf" can't be expected to be taken as a case for someone's innocence. Comments that it seems like "we're not going to go after Inzil for a while, since even though he didn't die people may think "oh, well lets go for someone else today" and then he could be a wolf this whole time and we could be letting him get by. Does that make sense? I mean I'm not saying "lets get Inzil and finish what we started" cause I don't really suspect him, but it just feels so weird to me." <- I'm not okay with this comment. It reminds me eerily of Mr. Agreeable, like she's giving herself an out while keeping Inzil in the spotlight. Uneasy, but nothing concrete about Morsul. Eomer is under her radar. Mnemo is acting different than yesterday, but not suspiciously so. Good with Nog, Mac, and Nerwen. Iffy about me (Shasta), but not truly suspicious of. Might vote Boro.

#363: Will vote for one of Lommy, Boro, Pitch, Mnemo, Loslote, Inzil, or Nerwen. Probably not Lommy, possibly Boro, possibly Pitch (finds him iffy after a quick skim), okay with Mnemo, hasn't paid attention to Loslote, doesn't know why people suspect Inzil, good with Nerwen. Deciding between Boro and Pitch, leaning Boro.

#381: Thought about voting Pitch, but decides to vote for Boro.

#403: Defends herself against Lommy quite vehemently. Says she's been consistent with her suspicion of him and has given ample reasoning. Makes special note of the fact that she wasn't bandwagoning or adding more names to the pile.

#456: Pointless.

#461: Does some analyzing of Mnemo. Thinks Boro or Nog might be wolves, based on the fact that Mnemo seemed sure of their innocence. Thinks Pitch might be innocent, because she (Mnemo) concentrated on Inzil and Pitch and Inzil was innocent, also her (Mnemo's) vote for Pitch. Will be keeping an eye on Sally due to Mnemo's interactions with her (Sally). Notes again that Mnemo was positive of Nog's innocence and mentions that while she doesn't find Nog that suspicious, she'll be keeping that in mind.

#490: Defends herself against Boro. Says she didn't find Mnemo suspicious and didn't want to bring anyone else into the mix, so anyone she voted for would have tied them with Mnemo. Unsure about Lottie's reveal. Thinks the decision to reveal was rushed as Lottie wasn't in any danger of being lynched. Again reminds me of Pitch with "I'm not saying I completely don't believe her, but..." Doesn't feel suspicious of anyone except possibly Nog because of how Mnemo felt about him and uneasy with Boro.

#497: A list. Half and half on Nienna, a bit wary of Pitch, will let Morsul be, rather suspicious of Lommy for being agreeable, doesn't talk about Boro, fairly good with me (Shasta), will let Loslote be, will keep a closer eye on Sally, unsure about Nogrod, and no one else has stood out.

#499: Pointless.

#509: After a quick skim, decides to vote Nienna, though she's "not positive".

#602: Mostly pointless. Commisserates on the Nienna-lynch, is glad it wasn't her (Wilwa).

#711: Votes Pitch.

#735: Unsurprised about Eomer. Thinks Boro makes sense regarding the kill choices of those who voted Mnemo twice. Responds to Lommy that the fact that Nog and Mac are alive could be a bluff. More agreeableness and vacillating. Comments that Lottie could still be a lying wolf.

-----------

Apologies if this has already been done/is repetitive. A lot of this is for my benefit, and conclusions coming next.

Shastanis Althreduin · 12-07-2009, 09:20 PM

Points against Wilwa:
-Very careful to stay on Nog and Roa's good side
-Attempts to keep Inzil as a viable lynch option while disavowing any attempt of such a thing on her part
-Sudden suspicion of Pitch, considering the timing
-Sets herself up to be able to say "I suspected Pitch" while voting for Boro; possible Mnemo-rescue attempt
-Her "ample reasoning" against Boro is that he "makes her uneasy"
-Draws attention to the lack of bandwagoning-motive for her Boro vote
-Faulty logic in #461, regarding Inzil and Pitch
-Flipflops on Pitch after nearly voting him the day before
-Flipflops on Nog after being quite good with him
-Huge qualification regarding Lottie's reveal
-Flipflops again on Pitch in #497
-Rather "pot-calling-kettle" suspicious of Lommy
-Votes for Nienna out of the blue, very bandwagon-like
-Insistent that we don't believe Lottie (this could go either way)

Points for Wilwa:
-Makes a good point about past wolfery not being applicable in present games
-Reasonable defense against Boro in #490
-The wolf-killchoice of Inzil
-Reasonable (if a bit misguided) approach to whether or not to believe Lottie's reveal

----------------

So there's a lot more against Wilwa than there is for her. I'm glad to know it wasn't just groupthink that made me suspicious of her.

Morsul the Dark · 12-07-2009, 10:34 PM

Shall we test this theory?

By the way joking that'd be a horrible reason to vote for someone

satansaloser2005 · 12-07-2009, 10:36 PM

Interesting take on Roa/Nogrod and all that, and I do see your point about Mnemo defending him looking a bit wolfish. However, it’s possible that since they’re both....well, a bit similar in style that Mnemo may have just seen Nog as an ally in that regard and decided to defend him. The same could be said of Nog defending Mnemo.

Oooo good point about Pitch though, especially since we don’t (think we) have a cobbler. And I like (or rather find it interesting) that in the post you quoted Pitch feels the need to not only theorize that Nog is gifted, but also point out that he doesn’t mean a cobbler. What did he know that we don’t?

Like I said, him defending Mnemo but not voting to save her is probably just like players helping each other, not necessarily packmates.

Good point too about his phrasing on Mnemo, the “one of the most reasonable” part. However he’s talking about ‘general issues’ he says and then goes on to suspect her, so once again I’ll have to say that his partial defense is the liking of her playing style.

I wonder why he put them in that order. Could be random, could not. And you do have a good point about Pitch, but unless you didn’t quote the whole post he didn’t talk that much about him in that post. He does suspect him but for instance if he suspected someone more at the time this makes sense. And besides, I think “have really hard times with” implies that he thinks he’s guilty. Just my opinion.

Again on the Mnemo thing, I think it’s just similar playing styles and general kindred spirits, not wolvery. Although you have an excellent point on how he dismisses her vote.

From the end of your Day 2 analysis it is possible they (Mnemo and Nog) were wolves together; again, it seems to me not by his earlier posts and attitude in general, but he could have started up on her heavier once he realized she was in trouble and it could make him look good. However, I don’t think he’d have gone so hard on Pitch.

I can’t say much on his opinion of the Lottie situation because I completely agree with him. (Also, when did he suggest she was the hunter?)

Think about it this way; if an entire pack did wolf-on-wolf it would be brilliant, but also extremely dangerous. I think Mnemo may have been up for it but I also know she was just playing for fun (though she definitely wouldn’t have wanted to get bussed in my opinion) so it’ s possible that they didn’t; also, would Pitch agree to something like that? I can’t see Nog going wolf-on-wolf without a reason and/or the consent of his packmates. I’m not sure though.

And yes, they can be sneaky. Which is why I think Nog may be too obvious a choice.

Now I want my rep!!!!!!!

Morsul the Dark · 12-07-2009, 09:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

My goodness what a novel idea!

Speaking of which, I'm going to try to do that analysis of Bes tonight; I didn't get it done yesterday because I was a naughty girl and put office stuff before WW.

"Morsul's being ridiculous don't listen to him I'm soo innocent see my batting eyes?

"

Please unless someone seriously better comes up I know where my vote's going.

satansaloser2005 · 12-07-2009, 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

"Morsul's being ridiculous don't listen to him I'm soo innocent see my batting eyes?

"

Please unless someone seriously better comes up I know where my vote's going.

And if you can't think of a better excuse than that to kill an innocent you deserve to get lynched. I was busy and you accused me for saying that I was busy. Your kung fu is not strong and your logic is not undeniable. Fail.

x'd with Lottie

Loslote · 12-07-2009, 10:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

And if you can't think of a better excuse than that to kill an innocent you deserve to get lynched. I was busy and you accused me for saying that I was busy. Your kung fu is not strong and your logic is not undeniable. Fail.

Thing is, I think that's normal for him. So, despite his logic (or lack thereof) I don't think Morsul's a wolf.

EDIT: xed with Nog

satansaloser2005 · 12-07-2009, 10:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loslote

Thing is, I think that's normal for him. So, despite his logic (or lack thereof) I don't think Morsul's a wolf.

Yeah, I'm not sure he is either (which is why I haven't already voted him) but if his shoddy logic and therefore misdirected vote goes to an innocent how hesitant are the wolves going to be to jump on that? (Given the right circumstances) not very, meaning if he's around at End Game we might be in a real pickle.

Still, I'd rather go for one of my top suspects toDay. By the way, Shasta, thanks for putting up that analysis of Wilwa; it was a nice little review for me. Too bad you're another of my top suspects.

EDIT: x'd with Morsul

Morsul the Dark · 12-07-2009, 10:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

And if you can't think of a better excuse than that to kill an innocent you deserve to get lynched. I was busy and you accused me for saying that I was busy. Your kung fu is not strong and your logic is not undeniable. Fail.

x'd with Lottie

No people are busy I get that in fact the first few times I said "Eh so she's busy.." but after a few pages of reading the same "Here reading busy be back later" posts over and over I get the feeling it's more an excuse than a reality... That's my reason.

satansaloser2005 · 12-07-2009, 09:13 PM

Erm, crap. Double post. Anyway, sorry about that. Getting to analysis now that my internet isn't flailing as much.

*headdesks*

12-07-2009, 09:13 PM	#13
satansaloser2005 The Sweetest Spoiler Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly Posts: 5,789	Erm, crap. Double post. Anyway, sorry about that. Getting to analysis now that my internet isn't flailing as much. headdesks __________________ "My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm. Last edited by satansaloser2005; 12-07-2009 at 09:22 PM.

12-07-2009, 08:58 PM	#2
Morsul the Dark Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 3,448	ehausted from looking at Sally's posts... fine.... I'll look at them....<yawn __________________ Morsul the Resurrected

12-07-2009, 09:08 PM	#4
Shastanis Althreduin Werewolf Psychic Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water. Posts: 2,832	On Wilwa: #215: Pointless. #226: A post of Boro's doesn't make sense and seems like a lot of talk for nothing. The line "I neither preach nor teach. I am what I am, and I know what I am. Someone's got to be." she finds odd. Understands what Nog is trying to say about Roa, but agrees with Nerwen that it's not enough to make her suspicious of Roa as well. Is confident in Nog for this reason, though. Agrees with Roa about Boro not latching on to the suspicion of her (Roa) when she made her number-slip until someone else suspected her for it. Disagrees with Roa that Nog is pretending to be the Seer. Questions her, but does not suspect her. Boro makes her uneasy, Nog she's fine with and Roa is iffy. #232: Mostly pointless. Was starting to think Roa guilty (based on Nog's case?) until Legate's reveal of her withdrawal. #239: Boro weirds her out "but that's normal", is especially fine with Nog, is good with Nerwen and Mnemo. Doesn't see why the people who got three votes got three votes. #346: Makes a point I actually agree with, that saying "this is how I would act/have acted as a wolf" can't be expected to be taken as a case for someone's innocence. Comments that it seems like "we're not going to go after Inzil for a while, since even though he didn't die people may think "oh, well lets go for someone else today" and then he could be a wolf this whole time and we could be letting him get by. Does that make sense? I mean I'm not saying "lets get Inzil and finish what we started" cause I don't really suspect him, but it just feels so weird to me." <- I'm not okay with this comment. It reminds me eerily of Mr. Agreeable, like she's giving herself an out while keeping Inzil in the spotlight. Uneasy, but nothing concrete about Morsul. Eomer is under her radar. Mnemo is acting different than yesterday, but not suspiciously so. Good with Nog, Mac, and Nerwen. Iffy about me (Shasta), but not truly suspicious of. Might vote Boro. #363: Will vote for one of Lommy, Boro, Pitch, Mnemo, Loslote, Inzil, or Nerwen. Probably not Lommy, possibly Boro, possibly Pitch (finds him iffy after a quick skim), okay with Mnemo, hasn't paid attention to Loslote, doesn't know why people suspect Inzil, good with Nerwen. Deciding between Boro and Pitch, leaning Boro. #381: Thought about voting Pitch, but decides to vote for Boro. #403: Defends herself against Lommy quite vehemently. Says she's been consistent with her suspicion of him and has given ample reasoning. Makes special note of the fact that she wasn't bandwagoning or adding more names to the pile. #456: Pointless. #461: Does some analyzing of Mnemo. Thinks Boro or Nog might be wolves, based on the fact that Mnemo seemed sure of their innocence. Thinks Pitch might be innocent, because she (Mnemo) concentrated on Inzil and Pitch and Inzil was innocent, also her (Mnemo's) vote for Pitch. Will be keeping an eye on Sally due to Mnemo's interactions with her (Sally). Notes again that Mnemo was positive of Nog's innocence and mentions that while she doesn't find Nog that suspicious, she'll be keeping that in mind. #490: Defends herself against Boro. Says she didn't find Mnemo suspicious and didn't want to bring anyone else into the mix, so anyone she voted for would have tied them with Mnemo. Unsure about Lottie's reveal. Thinks the decision to reveal was rushed as Lottie wasn't in any danger of being lynched. Again reminds me of Pitch with "I'm not saying I completely don't believe her, but..." Doesn't feel suspicious of anyone except possibly Nog because of how Mnemo felt about him and uneasy with Boro. #497: A list. Half and half on Nienna, a bit wary of Pitch, will let Morsul be, rather suspicious of Lommy for being agreeable, doesn't talk about Boro, fairly good with me (Shasta), will let Loslote be, will keep a closer eye on Sally, unsure about Nogrod, and no one else has stood out. #499: Pointless. #509: After a quick skim, decides to vote Nienna, though she's "not positive". #602: Mostly pointless. Commisserates on the Nienna-lynch, is glad it wasn't her (Wilwa). #711: Votes Pitch. #735: Unsurprised about Eomer. Thinks Boro makes sense regarding the kill choices of those who voted Mnemo twice. Responds to Lommy that the fact that Nog and Mac are alive could be a bluff. More agreeableness and vacillating. Comments that Lottie could still be a lying wolf. ----------- Apologies if this has already been done/is repetitive. A lot of this is for my benefit, and conclusions coming next. __________________ Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV

12-07-2009, 09:20 PM	#5
Shastanis Althreduin Werewolf Psychic Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water. Posts: 2,832	Points against Wilwa: -Very careful to stay on Nog and Roa's good side -Attempts to keep Inzil as a viable lynch option while disavowing any attempt of such a thing on her part -Sudden suspicion of Pitch, considering the timing -Sets herself up to be able to say "I suspected Pitch" while voting for Boro; possible Mnemo-rescue attempt -Her "ample reasoning" against Boro is that he "makes her uneasy" -Draws attention to the lack of bandwagoning-motive for her Boro vote -Faulty logic in #461, regarding Inzil and Pitch -Flipflops on Pitch after nearly voting him the day before -Flipflops on Nog after being quite good with him -Huge qualification regarding Lottie's reveal -Flipflops again on Pitch in #497 -Rather "pot-calling-kettle" suspicious of Lommy -Votes for Nienna out of the blue, very bandwagon-like -Insistent that we don't believe Lottie (this could go either way) Points for Wilwa: -Makes a good point about past wolfery not being applicable in present games -Reasonable defense against Boro in #490 -The wolf-killchoice of Inzil -Reasonable (if a bit misguided) approach to whether or not to believe Lottie's reveal ---------------- So there's a lot more against Wilwa than there is for her. I'm glad to know it wasn't just groupthink that made me suspicious of her. __________________ Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV

12-07-2009, 10:34 PM	#6
Morsul the Dark Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 3,448	Shall we test this theory? By the way joking that'd be a horrible reason to vote for someone __________________ Morsul the Resurrected

12-07-2009, 10:36 PM	#7
satansaloser2005 The Sweetest Spoiler Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly Posts: 5,789	Interesting take on Roa/Nogrod and all that, and I do see your point about Mnemo defending him looking a bit wolfish. However, it’s possible that since they’re both....well, a bit similar in style that Mnemo may have just seen Nog as an ally in that regard and decided to defend him. The same could be said of Nog defending Mnemo. Oooo good point about Pitch though, especially since we don’t (think we) have a cobbler. And I like (or rather find it interesting) that in the post you quoted Pitch feels the need to not only theorize that Nog is gifted, but also point out that he doesn’t mean a cobbler. What did he know that we don’t? Like I said, him defending Mnemo but not voting to save her is probably just like players helping each other, not necessarily packmates. Good point too about his phrasing on Mnemo, the “one of the most reasonable” part. However he’s talking about ‘general issues’ he says and then goes on to suspect her, so once again I’ll have to say that his partial defense is the liking of her playing style. I wonder why he put them in that order. Could be random, could not. And you do have a good point about Pitch, but unless you didn’t quote the whole post he didn’t talk that much about him in that post. He does suspect him but for instance if he suspected someone more at the time this makes sense. And besides, I think “have really hard times with” implies that he thinks he’s guilty. Just my opinion. Again on the Mnemo thing, I think it’s just similar playing styles and general kindred spirits, not wolvery. Although you have an excellent point on how he dismisses her vote. From the end of your Day 2 analysis it is possible they (Mnemo and Nog) were wolves together; again, it seems to me not by his earlier posts and attitude in general, but he could have started up on her heavier once he realized she was in trouble and it could make him look good. However, I don’t think he’d have gone so hard on Pitch. I can’t say much on his opinion of the Lottie situation because I completely agree with him. (Also, when did he suggest she was the hunter?) Think about it this way; if an entire pack did wolf-on-wolf it would be brilliant, but also extremely dangerous. I think Mnemo may have been up for it but I also know she was just playing for fun (though she definitely wouldn’t have wanted to get bussed in my opinion) so it’ s possible that they didn’t; also, would Pitch agree to something like that? I can’t see Nog going wolf-on-wolf without a reason and/or the consent of his packmates. I’m not sure though. And yes, they can be sneaky. Which is why I think Nog may be too obvious a choice. Now I want my rep!!!!!!! __________________ "My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.