WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa

What do you make of the second part of his statement? That wolves slip by on reasonableness? How do you take that?

Well, people like Brinn, Pitchie, Greenie, etc... tend to slip under everyone's radar because they are so very considerate and reasonable. And you should be knowledgeable of their stunning victories! They are the most dangerous wolves there are as you don't normally have anything on them because they play so carefully (and reasonably) and they really have triumphed.

Btw. I'm not too interested in you suspecting or just disagreeing with Boro. That's quite off the mark.

Originally Posted by Nerwen on Boro

Okay, but isn't this verging on forbidden meta-reasoning? Besides, maybe she did get lazy this once.

Like you on her laziness...

But to be honest. It actually is, at least in part, meta-reasoning and I said so earlier talking about an "uncomfortable zone". I'm convinced of her guilt and can't / shouldn't act otherwise. But I'm not going to state anything more on that side of the issue but will continue trying to find any other things there could be (in a few hours as I now have to get off for a while).

(Heh, feels like my first game here years ago when I was the seer and dreamt of Roa on the first Night and then tried to convince others she was a wolf while not being able to just say why... Oh those were the days... )

"Mountain building"... I love it everytime I have time for it!

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm convinced of her guilt and can't / shouldn't act otherwise. But I'm not going to state anything more on that side of the issue but will continue trying to find any other things there could be (in a few hours as I now have to get off for a while)

Nogrod, you say you're convinced of my guilt, but you refuse to give a reason why besides meta-gaming. And you openly state that you're looking for reasons to lynch me, meaning that you haven't actually got any.

I am now convinced that the secret role is the cobbler, and Nogrod is it. He's clearly hinting at being the seer, which the seer Nogrod wouldn't do, because he knows better than to do something so risky. Further more, he can't be the seer, because he most certainly wouldn't attack me like this if he was. Make no mistake, this is a cobbler planning a false reveal.

++Nogrod

[Thinlómien]

I think the way Nogrod and Roa attack each other seems rather fabricated, so I'm assuming one or rather more probably both are wolves. Brinn, I knew they were in cahoots (I couldn't escape Nogrod's celebrations of that in RL), but I don't think that makes it improbable they could be fellows again (especially as Legate didn't play last time, but that goes already slightly meta). But really, if they were both innocent, why would they do this, with absolutely no evidence against each other and without recognising the baselessness of their accusations?

As for other stuff, I feel I can't quite get a grasp on the game. I suspect Nogrod and Roa, and Nienna and Mnemo a bit.

[Mnemosyne]

Okay, I think we all need to calm down and take some deep, cleansing breaths...

(Seriously, I can practically smell the testosterone.)

Am I the only one who's convinced that the current tiffs are just opinionated ordos going insane, and the real wolves are sitting back and practically rubbing their hands with glee?

Although Roa's CobNog theory is interesting... Still, I think that Nogrod as a good cobbler would try to hold out until after Day One to start wreaking havoc. I'd just like to lay off both of them for a while and look at other possibilities...

I am glad, however, that we no longer have the problem we had thirteen hours ago or so! At the very least Boro and Roa should be commended for their apt bit of pot-stirring.

Since we've been discussing wolf strategies so much (reasonability etc.), could we please try to look at things from other angles? What I'm thinking of is more of along the lines of IC versus OOC. With a good deal of us (that's where the strategy falls short--our beloved n00bs!) there's a huge paper trail for how they normally play as innocent villagers. I think that that's a much better indicator of wolf-hood than whether a person sounds reasonable or not.

Finally...

One simple request... could we try to get as many of our votes in as possible not in the last five minutes? Reason is our ally in Werewolf, and last-minute voting often precludes the possibility of its just exercise.

[Boromir88]

Speak of the scientist...looks like I jumped the gun prematurely on Mnemo.

[Inziladun]

Once again, to address this:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

This means that the actually interesting thing to talk about are the reactions to him. I see three possible wolfish responses. 1. Agreement, in an effort to lead the village astray side by side with an innocent Boro, 2. Plain disagreement, putting oneself on the majority's side anticipating the general disagreement or going along with it now that it's there, 3. Maintaining the discussion, so that the village wastes time talking about things that don't matter.

1: none
2: Nogrod, disagrees without a fuss, which actually doesn't look very suspicious; Pitch's comment might be suspicious.
3: Inziladun, starting with "Huh?" and continuing; Nerwen, first merely picking up what Roa and Inzil said, then going into attack now (which would look innocent if her tone wasn't so darn sinister); Morsul made himself comfortable on the fence.

When I said this:

Originally Posted by me

Huh?

It was bedtime, and I really didn't get where Boro was going with that line of thought. But then, to say I was 'maintaining the discussion', when all I'd said was this:

Originally Posted by me

I see [Boro's] point now regarding Gifted survival strategy, and yes, that sort of thing has led to their being lynched. But I don't see any certain way of divining which we're looking at: a nervous Gifted, or a brash wolf. Do you have any ideas?

That's a reach, Mac.
And it really does look to me as if you were leaving the door open to raise suspicion on anyone who responded to Boro's comments.

I don't read much into Roa's misnumbering the wolves. It wouldn't get her very far as a wolf, in my opinion, and I think she's quite savvy enough to know that.

x/d with Roa and Pitch

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I don't read much into Roa's misnumbering the wolves. It wouldn't get her very far as a wolf, in my opinion, and I think she's quite savvy enough to know that.

As a matter of full disclosure, I did "mess up the numbers" last game when I was wolf. However, I wouldn't, as a wolf, employ the same strategy twice in a row. That would be obvious. And as a matter of fact, in that game, when I saw three other names on the wolf list, I had to double check the rules to make sure that I hadn't received a pm by mistake, because I was certain there were three wolves in the game. I was very surprised to find out there were four.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Roa and Nogrod could easily both be innocents. If so, they could be stoking the flames in order to gauge our reactions to the fight, or they could just as well be too stubborn for their own good.

Roa, Nogrod is not going after you solely because of that 3 wolf/4 wolf thing. He didn't like your reaction to Boromir's posts and he also is taking what you said personally (you called him unreasonable). He's got the idea in his head, and you're not exactly trying to appease him with gentle words.

Nogrod, if Roa is innocent then she is rightly baffled by your conviction of her guilt - as, I should think, most of us are. It was a very bold thing to say and now the village has to make a decision on it; if you had not mentioned conviction, we could easily have left this to simmer for a few days.

And now, I don't want to concentrate on these two any longer. There could be a villain or two among them but I don't want to make a rash decision in killing off one of the two most vocal players.

[Brinniel]

I almost forgot to vote! I'm a bit rushed since I have to run to class, but here we go..

The two people who stuck in my mind as suspicious are Nogrod and Nerwen. Nogrod's certainty over Roa's guilt seems a bit odd; why so confident on Day One? Whoever mentioned that his behaviour seems cobblerish, I agree. The problem is we don't even know whether we have a cobbler or not. As for Nerwen, she was very quick to jump on Roa's attack on Boro earlier; a very bandwaggonish move, which I find suspicious. So...

++Nerwen

Originally Posted by Lommy

Brinn, I knew they were in cahoots (I couldn't escape Nogrod's celebrations of that in RL), but I don't think that makes it improbable they could be fellows again (especially as Legate didn't play last time, but that goes already slightly meta).

Of course it's always possible...and it'd be almost funny if it did happen again. Anyway it seems quite typical for Nogrod and Roa to butt heads; though that does not necessarily point toward innocence or guilt.

[Mnemosyne]

All right, I've got an hour before I have to vote.

I am not voting for Nog, Roa, or Boro.

Okay, that narrows it down to... 16...

I'd rather vote for people who have made short, choppy posts than longer, more analytical ones. Unfortunately there wasn't so much to analyze earlier in the day. Still, the simple restatement of rules that happened with Loslote and Nienna kind of rankled. At least banterers aren't pretending to be helpful. Enough to vote on, though? Eehhhhhhh...

On the other hand, Morsul is irritatingly confusing and often confused. Which he is (for me, at least) elsewhere on the thread. Voting him would be easy, especially considering his vote for Mac.

Mac himself I can't place, but he's been making points which is better analysis fodder for later in the game.

Eomer hasn't been saying much, but what he's been saying has been valuable.

I'd like to hear more from Pitchwife and Inziladun to get a better feel for both of them. May vote for them... maybe... Both of them just feel a little off at the moment.

I'd also like to hear more from Brinn, but she's been acting normal as far as I can tell.

Our newer players I'll let slide for toDay out of courtesy, but if trom doesn't post something about the actual game itself before dl I'm going to be ticked.

Nerwen has been feeling solidly Nerwenish.

Need to hear more from Lommy... I think she's valid in pointing out that Nog and Roa might be in cahoots, but I don't think that that alone is justification for lynching one or both of them.

Greenie feels innocent; for some reason I think that if she were a wolf she would be posting a lot more than she has been.

Shasta... I need more from you, please.

wilwa hasn't posted so I can't say anything about her.

And I think that's it for now.

[A Little Green]

Huh. Well, at least we have had plenty of discussion! (Though I have to agree with Mnemo that deep, calming breaths might be in order..) I intended to write comments on posts written in my absence, but it seems to have become a post almost entirely on the Nog-Roa-issue. I apologise.

Originally Posted by Nog

That was an intentional "mistake". It just has to be.

Originally Posted by Nog, underlining mine

As an ordo I know it. 'nuff said - meaning we're coming to the "uncomfortable zone" here and I'm not willing to argue anything as it's one of those things a player is not allowed to produce evidence for (which is actually just fair). Everyone can use their little grey cells though... and I suggest you all ordos do it and see it yourselves.

I don't get this. At all. It's possible that Roa's slip was intentional. I can't see why it's certain. As for the underlined part - he's basically saying "everyone who doesn't agree with me is a baddie". I don't like that.

Originally Posted by Lommy

But really, if they were both innocent, why would they do this, with absolutely no evidence against each other and without recognising the baselessness of their accusations?

My thoughts exactly.

Originally Posted by Boro, underlining mine

But I don't see anything wrong with Nog wondering that an honest mistake is less likely considering it wasn't something that I found terribly unclear nor uncommunicated by Legate.

I don't count saying "That was an intentional mistake" as wondering that a honest mistake is less likely, do you? Because I don't see anything wrong in wondering that a honest mistake is less likely, either. But that wasn't what Nog did.

Originally Posted by Boro

That being said, Nog do you really think wolf-Roa would purposefully state the wrong number of wolves? What does she gain from acquiring what will surely be lots of uneeded attention?

I thought the same - where's the point? She'll gain a very small confusion that is bound to be cleared almost immediately. She might have gained a status as confused ergo not wolf (faulty logic, by the way), but somehow that doesn't sound like Roa to me. At all.

Originally Posted by Roa

You may think that a cobbler Nogrod wouldn't go so far so fast, but I think he would- getting rid of one strong player, and forcing the village to lynch him on Day 2, means two days go by with out a dead wolf, and the village becomes significantly quieter.

The problem about the cobbler-Nogrod theory is that while I believe a cobbler-Nogrod would go far and fast if need be, it doesn't suit him at all to intentionally rid the village of a loud and active player on Day 1, probably resulting in his own death on Day 2. He'd love having a bit more fun with his cobbler role, and also calculatingly targeting vocal players for gain doesn't sit right with his strong opinions on sportive ww-playing.

Argh. Roa and Nogrod, you can congratulate yourselves on giving me a headache. Earlier toDay I congratulated myself on not suspecting Nogrod for a change. And what does he do? Start writing some completely insane stuff, and I can't see why he would say such things as a wolf or a cobbler or an innocent. And I don't understand Roa, either.

I'll write a list soon in order not to concentrate too much on Nogrod's crazy behaviour.


EDIT: x-ed with Roa, Eomer, Brinn, Pitch, another Roa and Mnemo. I like seeing people around. It's nice.