TIG LXIX: Meeting at the House of Usher

[Nogrod]

Just trying to make sense of the main points in my earlier post...

The wolves had yesterDay a situation of 4 (wolves) + 2 (shifty innocent counting) lovers against 5 real innocents. Had they managed to lynch an innocent they would have been at 4 + 2 + 3 toDay (with a succesful Night-kill) and a deal with the lovers would have been remarkably easy toDay - I suppose (looking at how Saucie and Fea react).

It is doable to them even with the numbers we have toDay, eg. 3 + 2 + 4, but not so easily anymore - I hope. And the wolves should have known that.

So that makes me think the wolves wished to save McCaber - and thus the one (or two) last just had to give up her/his or their hope as s/he or they saw there was no easy way out? (as there needs to be at least one wolf among the McC-voters - and especially if Roa is a wolf too!)



That to my mind lays heavily on Roa & Sally.

(heh, if Spm and Fea are wolves it would fit nicely indeed and be the coup of the century... but I would like to hear the full rules on the lovers from the authorities before making any further suggestions along those lines.)



Of the McCaber-voters one must be a wolf - and it's possible there are two in there. All of them had good grounds to vote him as the suspicion was so largely shared by then - so none needed to pull an effort to say s/he suspected McCaber. So what other matters were there?

Loslote - as I said looks more genuine than not. One could say it was the first vote thrown and as such an easy one, but it would have been a daring deed indeed - looking at the situation where the wolves would have loved to keep their numbers intact for a possible victory on the next Day... so putting the probable / possible wagon rolling doesn't look like an early-voter wolf's strategy - especially as the lynch would be decided on just a few votes anyway and so adding to the pile that early would be really risky as things might develop ortherwise as well and the sacrifice might not have been needed.

Inzil - if you read his posts from page 10 you get an odd feeling where he kind of repeats the words others have said or were just plain accepted common views (and right in that!); that McC had surely earned a vote / no one can argue he doesn't look suspicious / gives an uneasy feeling, but also that he is: "too easy a vote". But he clearly tried to continue with his suspicion of Lottie as if looking whether that could bite in the end - and leaving him an open door not to vote for McCaber. Finally he came up with hinting on thinking Roa more suspicious, and being conscise that his vote might break the game - even if there clearly were at least some votes to come, and he only made McC one vote ahead...

Nerwen - I've mentioned her theory of the relations between McC, Roa and Sally. And it makes sense indeed; I think / hope I have managed to open the implications of it toDay a bit further. Also her vote was quite like the deciding vote which could speak good for her. My only problem with her is that she could be one of those few - if wolves with Roa - that could come up with such a strategy (note Roa's vote for her backtracked!). Well, if it is that way I will kind of humbly offer the win to them as they deserve it in that case. Or should I? The thing against her is mainly quite bad: being too on spot of things all the way, like making "too good" speculations on how the wolves would act very early on - as that was something she spent a lot in the early hours of the game. But looks to me more innocent than evil.

Brinn - Makes decent points about the lovers, suspects Roa (because of her vote-switch - which I kind of am ready to buy Roa's explanation of) and McCaber (from the earlier Day on). Voices doubts on Lottie and Nerwen (needs to see better, she says). Later "slightly concerned about Sally", defends Roa's vote for Nerwen (although says Nerwen is okay in her "book"). She goes to and fro a bit too carefully and sends McCaber to his doom as the second last voter (she probably din't cross-post as there were five minutes between her post and the one before hers) - while everything was already settled. It looks pretty hard to figure her out: her reasoning looks fine but her timing looks just evil (if trying to find unhappy McCaber -voters that is)!


We have three wolves - those making cases against someone or trying to slip through! So three cases are plain wrong (including Sally & Roa) So a consensus is no proof as the wolves would love to hide themselves within a consensus...

Looking at the possible "winning scenario" by the wolves and the reality I'd say Inzil and Brinn look the worst from the McC voters (the first made a decisive thing out of his vote when it was not so, and the other had it easy to just confirm what was inevitable) - but it doesn't make Nerwen innocent either (it was pretty decisive but still she could have realised her position and do it to make herself look better as there were scarcely good-looking alternatives).

So

Sally or Roa?

Inzil or Brinn?

There should be three within them...

I'd call Lottie and maybe also Nerwen okay for toDay...




ADD... Okay. Seeing Mira confirm the rules I'll drop my scenario of the two being wolves...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Spm

Right, so stop whinging and get on with it.

I might return the compliment by asking what have you done? Oh but you were having such hard times winning as lovers... I totally forgot that... it's such a thing, forcing you to the edge of your cababilities, taking all your time, offering such challenges... Oh I must bow to you after this game as you're such hard-working winners... only up to your personal cleverness! Heh, the stupid villagers and the magnificient lovers! Oh, you deserve this for your own effort and glory!

The set-up or the general good-will on you playing for a long time (with the horrendous experience you had the last game) had nothing to do with it, but only your ingeniousness, hard work and sheer brightness of reason did it...! Oh, I bow on your altar mighty lovers... you're just so... super!


Blah... I'll stop whining right now.




EDIT: Okay, edit with your edit Spm... Not a fair deal perhaps, but withdrawal accepted... and some of the fury tempered...

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Inzil - if you read his posts from page 10 you get an odd feeling where he kind of repeats the words others have said or were just plain accepted common views (and right in that!); that McC had surely earned a vote / no one can argue he doesn't look suspicious / gives an uneasy feeling, but also that he is: "too easy a vote". But he clearly tried to continue with his suspicion of Lottie as if looking whether that could bite in the end - and leaving him an open door not to vote for McCaber. Finally he came up with hinting on thinking Roa more suspicious, and being conscise that his vote might break the game - even if there clearly were at least some votes to come, and he only made McC one vote ahead...

To clarify, Nog, when I said something along the lines of 'this vote could make or break the game', I wasn't speaking of my vote in particular, but the collective vote; which, had we gone for an innocent, would probably have led to the end of the line. I was musing aloud, trying to reason who looked worse at that time, Cab or Roa. Does it look like prevarication? It wasn't.
Nor is this:

++Sally

I appreciate your analysis; I haven't had a chance to look at much toDay. To me, Sally is by far the best wolf-suspect right now.

x/d with SPM and Nog

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I might return the compliment by asking what have you done?

A great deal actually. As has my other half. We have just chosen not to share the fruits of our labour with the Village.

Sorry, that's just the way that it is, I am afraid.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

A great deal actually. As has my other half. We have just chosen not to share the fruits of our labour with the Village.

That's what you say...

[satansaloser2005]

*rolls eyes, tries to not get too upset at the fact that, yet again, she's finally able to devote a bit of time to the game and is being punished for it*


Votes:

Dun (dun dun)-->Sally
Noggie-->Sally

Sally: 2
Village: 1 (for killing Cabbie)
Wolves: 1,592,683 and counting


I'll see what I can do between now and my meeting; hopefully I won't fall asleep.

[satansaloser2005]

Oh, and Noggie? Go to bed.

*gets to reading*

[The Saucepan Man]

How about an alternative candidate?

++Roa

Just to keep things interesting, you understand.

[Nerwen]

I'm thinking of voting Sally, but here's my problem. Inzil is heavily after her, and from here he looks, if not exactly guilty, at least the guiltiest of the McCaber voters. See his posts at #369, #385, where he seems to be suggesting that McCaber is perhaps being framed.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Like I said, I don't believe anyone could reasonably argue McCaber has not been suspicious. At the very least he has been consistently unhelpful.
I think this is the last thing he's said toDay thus far.

1. Originally Posted by McCaber
2. I'm here too, by coincidence.

Nothing else. I know he's quite adept at being a quiet wolf, so why does this give me an uneasy feeling, like I'm overlooking something?
Trouble is, I don't know who else would be better. Roa's interactions with SPM on Day 1 could look more sinister, knowing what we know now. And the vote toDay doesn't help. It could indeed have been out of frustration with this vexing situation, but still....

and

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I see SPM made good on his earlier threat to vote Roa for threatening his beloved with lynching.

So we have votes for McCaber (2), Roa (2), and Fea (1).

I don't trust Roa at the moment, but SPM's vote can't be considered an indication he thinks she might be a wolf, because we have no way of knowing which side he's taken. However, there are still more innocents than wolves, I think, so it's in the lovers' interests to help the village.
[B]McCaber just seems too easy. If innocent, he's perfect for wolves[/B], because he's really does look like he could be a sly wolf cruising through quietly, while so much else has occupied our attention, as Nerwen said.
This could well be the vote that makes or breaks the game, so I'd really like to get it right.
Now Sally's gone for Roa. I wonder if there's anything to the way she made sure to note that she meant 'we' to refer to the village. I think her meaning would have clear without that.

Innocent trying to puzzling things out? Wolf making a last attempt to bring in another candidate? It could be either, and if the latter he was certainly very subtle about it, and everything he says is perfectly reasonable. But still, it makes me a bit uneasy...

I answered it with this:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Oh, that was rather a wicked-looking comment of Sally's... I wonder if she could be one of them? Not really much for or against it, but that's because she's been a submarine.

Meanwhile, the two most obvious lynch-candidates are Roa and McCaber, and in different ways both of them look a bit too easy... but then anyone else would be almost random.

The thing is, I think if Roa is a wolf, that implies McCaber is too, anyway, because otherwise he would be a nice, easy lynch for her.

Upon which he promptly voted McCaber.

Innocent who'd had his doubts answered? Wolf who realised he couldn't save his fellow without giving himself away? Again, could be either.

There's nothing whatever sinister about his vote, mind you– at the time he cast it, it broke the tie between McCaber and Roa. Recall that the third vote on Roa came in exactly at DL, and was from Fea, who had apparently disappeared hours before.

(Note that we don't know Roa's role, however.)

EDIT:X'd since SPM at #435. (I had to do some stuff in the middle of composing this and forgot to refresh before posting.)
EDIT2:fixed bolding, added comment.

[Nogrod]

Okay. I have a wake up call in five hours hours so I need to vote now.

Blah, I'd want to stay and see what happens when others actually come online as that might help a lot... (it's quite frustrating to interact only with a lover who could stab you in the back at any minute).

Looking at it now, I must say my strongest suspicion is that the wolves wished to keep McCaber around to offer a clear deal to the lovers toDay (with four wolves to bargain the votes for).

So it would call for Sally or Roa being a wolf - or both of them - willing to either divert the bandwagon from a fellow wolf (Roa) or confusing the crowd and make oneself looking good (Sally).

Pushed to the decision, I'd say Roa's decision was more honest-looking. She had said she would be hampered during yesterDay already beforehand as Craydon would be visiting her and she said she was practically grabbed away from the computer - and that could explain her odd actions: after the sudden revealment of Fea and Spm and having only minutes to share she might actually have flipped. And she voted for Fea... which actually looks like pure retaliation out of frustration... something a wolf might rather not do.

Heh, I could vote for both Fea and Spm anytime to let this game go forwards in normal manner and not just waiting whether they decide to end this game or not with a deal with the wolves! So I kind of can see her sudden feeling if she was an innocent as well... that doesn't prove anything, but of the two she looks less bad... and she's more helpful anyway.

But Sally then... well that's a different story... she had Roa as her "feeling bad" suspect but that was it? Roa's vote looked odd, but did she really think a wolf-Roa would have done that? Honestly? Okay, it was odd and we might have time to think of it only now (in relation to the RL things she told us), but would you say a wolf-Roa would have been that erratic and basically calling suspicion on herself? Okay, I don't know... she might even do that, but I think it less probable than Sally catching up the situation and trying to capitulate on it with a McCaber-mate possibly going down - and making a real alternate choice for lynching (look at the placing of the vote!).

Also what Inzil spotted about her saying of McCaber: first she had no idea of McCaber, and then she was claiming he was her second best choice as it was more or less clear he was gathering quite a suspicion. So how did he make it the second best without her saying anything of him? Looks crooked...

GAhh... I hate to vote like Day after Day to one preceding my vote... but I do think we hit the mark with...


++ Sally


Who the two others are? No idea - expect of what I have said toDay.

Hoping to meet you toMorrow - with a wolf less...