TIG LXIX: Meeting at the House of Usher

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Have I missed something? Since when is there a 'friendy' wolf?

Originally Posted by Mirandir

1. "Upon entering this house," he continued, "All but seven of you were infused with a spirit. Five of you have been infected by evil. You will attempt to kill your fellows when the Night falls, but only four work together. One of the others wants you to win and will help you trick the others during the Day.

'Five infected by evil', but only four working together. I read that as four wolves, and a bear. And then one working for the evil side during the Day, the cobbler. If I'm misinformed in this regard, I'd like to know.

Ah, you think the "you" in that sentence refers to the wolves? I think you may be right. Drat.

EDIT:X'd with Morsul.

[The Saucepan Man]

Erk, my bad. I assumed that "you" in the passage quoted by Nerwen referred to the Innocents and that there was therefore one Wolf working for the Village. However, reading it again, I fear that I was wrong and that Inzil is correct.

Originally Posted by Morsul

3 Wolves Not Four!

Alas, no ...

Originally Posted by Brinniel, in the narrative

So we have four wolves, a werebear, a Hunter, a Ranger, a Seer, a cobbler, two Lovers, and seven ordos

I think the maths is wrong. But only to the extent that there are 6 ordos as, according to the narrative, there are definately four Wolves. And a Werebear. And a Cobbler ...

Great.

Still, on the bright side, it improves our odds of lynching a baddie.

[Mirandir]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

I think the maths is wrong. But only to the extent that there are 6 ordos as, according to the narrative, there are definately four Wolves. And a Werebear. And a Cobbler ...

Erm so this one time Mira can't count. There are six ordos. Epic fail on my part. And just to clarify, there are four wolves and a bear and a cobbler. No friendly wolf. Sorry for the confusion.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Mirandir

Erm so this one time Mira can't count. There are six ordos. Epic fail on my part. And just to clarify, there are four wolves and a bear and a cobbler. No friendly wolf. Sorry for the confusion.

Well, three wolves would have been better, but thanks for the clarification.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I am glad that's cleared up, although I'm not exactly enthused by the outcome. Indeed, perhaps we should have kept the idea of a 'friendly Wolf' going for longer, as it would most certainly have confused the Wolves.

Not at all happy, though, with how quickly Roa was to jump on my misunderstanding. Quite apart from anything else, posing as a 'friendly Wolf', would be a pretty suicidal tactic for a Wolf ...

[Brinniel]

Just checking in. I'm at work now, so I really don't have time to say much (plus these school computers like to automatically log me out every 15 minutes). I have classes all day most of the week so for most Days I won't be around again until the last few hours. So in case anyone wonders where I am during a good span of the Day...that's why.

Anyway, it looks like mostly what's been going on is a lot of confusion, which has now been clarified. For the most part, it all the confusion looks perhaps to be genuine, though I won't eliminate the possibility of a bluffing baddie. Faking ignorance is a good strategy to make someone look innocent. I also wouldn't be surprised if it turned out a wolf or cobbler (though probably more likely the latter) was encouraging the Friendly Wolf idea, since that could be used to their advantage to make the village think that a baddie was on their side. It's perhaps something I should take a better look at later toDay along with other discussions that may arise.

With the wolves and werebear, there's really no easy way to identify one from the other except that possible connections can be found between wolves. And usually those connections can't be identified until one is dead (unless the seer reveals a living wolf). The werebear is most difficult to catch because he works alone and the only way we can trace him other than by suspicious behaviour is through his Nightly kills. It would certainly be nice to eliminate the werebear quickly so to prevent too many double Night kills, but we also want to be quick to narrow down the number of wolves since there are four of them. Really we shouldn't try to lynch one or the another; we should just lynch those who act suspiciously as we normally do and hopefully they'll turn out to be one of the two. Of course, what would be really nice is if the wolves and werebear were to take care of each other at Night for us.

EDIT: X-ed with last two posts, which makes a really long time to write a post of this size. I keep getting interrupted...stupid work.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

For the most part, it all the confusion looks perhaps to be genuine, though I won't eliminate the possibility of a bluffing baddie. Faking ignorance is a good strategy to make someone look innocent. I also wouldn't be surprised if it turned out a wolf or cobbler (though probably more likely the latter) was encouraging the Friendly Wolf idea, since that could be used to their advantage to make the village think that a baddie was on their side.

Genuine confusion on the part of the cobbler or bear is also possible, I suppose.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Really we shouldn't try to lynch one or the another; we should just lynch those who act suspiciously as we normally do and hopefully they'll turn out to be one of the two.

Yes... I made that already.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Of course, what would be really nice is if the wolves and werebear were to take care of each other at Night for us.

Indeed, but talking about it certainly won't make it happen. (See last game with a Bear!)

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I also wouldn't be surprised if it turned out a wolf or cobbler (though probably more likely the latter) was encouraging the Friendly Wolf idea, since that could be used to their advantage to make the village think that a baddie was on their side.

Quite frankly, I am astonished that anyone could think the ‘friendly Wolf’ idea to have been a ruse by a baddie to sow confusion. Now that I understand the correct meaning of the passage concerned, I am at a loss to see how anyone who immediately understood its correct meaning would even have spotted the opportunity to misconstrue the narrative, let alone have had any confidence that such misconstruction would provide the opportunity for sustained confusion (which would have required a good portion of the Village to accept, or go along with, the misconstruction as the true position).

One thing which might well have been a ruse, however, was Roa’s apparent initial belief that there were only three Wolves. It could well have been intended to suggest, even if only subliminally, that she cannot possibly be a Wolf because otherwise she would have known that there were four Wolves. It’s not much on its own but, combined with her quickness to jump on my misunderstanding and her expressed suspicion of Nerwen, seemingly based only on Nerwen’s early accusations (which were clearly flippant, in my view), it makes me rather uneasy about her, moreso than anyone else at present.

[Roa_Aoife]

First things first: being a native of the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area, and my home team being the Ravens, I demand that my death involve ravens if/when I die. (Little known fact, the Ravens are so named in honor of Edgar Allen Poe, who is still well loved in the area. There's even a restaraunt named Annabel Lee's.)

Originally Posted by SPM

(three out of four Wolves, on the basis that one of them is on our side, ...).

Sorry, where did you get that from? Did I misunderstand the rules? Where does it say we have a Friendly wolf?

My impressions thus far:

It's nice to see that people aren't being shy with their accusations. At least we'll have plenty to discuss.

SPM, are you suggesting "The enemy of my enemy is my friend?" Keep in mind that the wolves and the bear could ultimately try to work together and turn on the village as a whole. I odn't know if we can count on that dynamic playing out.

Nerwen has been throwing suspicion left and right, and seems very ready to jump on SPM's comment towards Inzil.

We seem to have a lot of confusion regarding the number of wolves. I thought there were only three this game, plus one bear and one cobbler to equal all the baddies. Are there really 4 wolves? If so, is one of them a lover? I thought the lovers were both innocent. A modgod intervention would be appreciated.

SPM's idea about this friendly wolf, if flawed, looks a great deal like someone trying to spread confusion, and perhaps open a doorway for "Don't lynch me, I'm the friendly wolf!"

So right now, my two main suspects are Nerwen and SPM.

Edit: crossed with Nerwen and SPM

[Roa_Aoife]

Alright, I can accept that SPM was confused by the posting. (I could have sworn we were only having 3 wolves...)

[Pitchwife]

Hi everybody, just caught up, got very confused by all the mathematics and then deconfused again by Mirandir's clarification. Thank Moddess that's settled.
So, the Bear. Last game I played with a Bear in it started with a heated discussion about the question whether it would be feasible for the village to strike an alliance with the Bear against the wolves, which led to some ill-guided lynchings, if I remember well. I think we'd do well to remember the ancient adage Ursus communis hostis omnium - the Bear is everyone's enemy.
Of course it would be best if we could catch the Bear and reduce the Night kills rather soonish, but I think it won't get us anywhere to concentrate too much on the Bear per se, as our chances of getting them are no better (or even worse) than those of getting any other baddie. Following Nerwen 's advice in #19 , let's lynch everybody who behaves evil, and hopefully we'll get the bear as well as the wolves.