Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXVIII: A Full Moon Over Innsmouth

[Loslote]

Brinn:

Post 1: Paranoid, suspects everyone.

Post 2: Doesn't suspect SPAM, dislikes meta-game reasoning, doesn't like random voting.

Post 3: Doesn't suspect Nienna for disliking Morsul's vote; Doesn't want to lynch Hakon and suspects Wilwa for wanting to; suspects me.

Post 4: Believes Pitchie but doesn't think he should have revealed; is sad to see SPAM go.

Post 5: Still doesn't think Pitchie's reveal was wise.

Post 6: Is annoyed by reveals; wonders whether Morsul is the agent, a wolf, or a confused ordo; wants to believe wilwa; her head hurts.

Post 7: wants to look more at other players.

Post 8: Doesn't find Nienna suspicious; wonders what Morsul is/was trying to do.

Post 9: is wary of Legate but not suspicious; wants to trust Roa but fears she is being fooled; doubts SPAM would try to lynch me if I were a wolf; doesn't particularly suspect Inzil; doesn't really have an opinion about Kitanna.

Post 10: Says the rangers may be bluffing, but doesn't think so; is uneasy about wilwa; agrees with Legate that Inzil wouldn't have agreed to Pitchie's not being a wolf, but then suspects him for saying he was innocent; finds Inzil 'creepy'.

Post 11: Still doesn't suspect Nienna; doesn't like the bandwagon against her; doesn't want to vote Nogrod, either.

Post 12: Doesn't want to vote Ni or Nog; votes Inzil for being 'creepy'.

I wanted to look closer because my memory isn't perfect, and I didn't want a suspicion based purely on gut feelings. After looking through her posts, though, I still think she's suspicious.

EDIT: xed with two Roas

[Pitchwife]

Here's what Brinn actually said about Zil (#233):

A wolf Inzil wouldn't want to eliminate the possibility that Pitch could be lying so that if the wolves decide to intentionally leave him alive then we'll start to doubt Pitch's innocence and lynch him. It'd be a risky move to leave a seer alive and dreaming, though perhaps our wolves are afraid to kill him anyway with the possibility of hitting the ranger's protection and would rather have the village take care of him. Another thing that worries me about this quote is that last line. Anyone who clearly states "I am innocent" always makes me wary because someone who is really innocent does not need to emphasize or reassure that truth unless they are being heavily suspected at the time

Lottie's very much abbreviated rendering makes it sound like Brinn was contradicting herself here ("but then..."). But as far as I can see, this is a solid argument about Zil's reaction to my reveal, and I think it was one reason for her to vote him - not merely because she found him 'creepy'.
(I'm not saying what I think of Zil here, just commenting on Lottie's representation of Brinn.)
Anyway, it would be good to hear Brinn herself. Or Lari and Nerwen, for that matter.

[Nogrod]

I'll just send this first... I have some other quotes clipped and will produce them as I first make some comments on them...


Hakon -> Wilwa
(“Wilwa is faking.”)
Morsul -> Hakon
(“Hakon seems the worst off in the bunch”)
Crayon -> Morsul
(“1) if I'm the only one that votes for him, than at least I did not contribute to the possible death of the real Priest, 2) if more do vote for him, than he dies and frankly, no one will mourn, and 3) I'm thinking that if I wanted people to not find out that I'm a wolf I would make myself clearly look like something else.”)
Nienna -> Nogrod
- 1.00 wilwa -> Nienna
(“Honestly, I've been so focused on all these reveals I've barely looked at anyone else, but one thing that stuck out was how Nienna claimed that Nerwen was "closed minded" about Morsul. That just doesn't make much sense to me. I know that's flimsy, but I just don't have the time I expected to have to look closer at other people. Uh, this sucks.”)
- 0.59 Loslote -> Nogrod 2
(“because that last post sounded off to me. It seemed like he was either trying to get one of the 'revealed' lynched, when we've already decided to mostly leave them be - or trying to throw suspicion on Roa for making strong points... Argh. This vote is barely better than my last one...”)
- 0.33 Lari -> Nienna 2
(“Taking her defense on Day 1 with her vote post(so she doesn't like Nerwen's closemindness about what was kind of a bad fake reveal...but votes Nog? I honestly can't see the logic in that one, because she says she's not comfortable voting for Nerwen...but she is for Nog?”)
- 0.16 Inzil -> Nienna 3
(“Wilwa's reasoning for Nienna struck me as suspicious, since she used almost the same wording as in my post. I was going to vote for Nienna myself, though.”)
- 0.12 Roa -> Nogrod 3
(“Because innocent Nogrod accuses me of being evil every time I do an unfavorable analysis of him, and Wolf-grod tries to keep the waters calm.”)
- 0.06 Nogrod -> Nienna 4
- 0.05 Nerwen -> Morsul
(“I'm not sure enough about either Nienna or Nogrod to vote them.”)
- 0.01 Brinn -> Inzil
(“I would rather have no part in the Nienna and Nogrod bandwagon. Nienna hasn't even been here to defend herself and I already said I'm uncomfortable voting Nog. Right now I still find Inzil creepy”)
- 0.01 Legate -> Inzil 2
(“I get bad feeling from Inzil, really, from a few things I spotted. So I will probably vote him. Especially his indefinite judgements like "I don't like this" and things like what he said about me, "Legate seems like he might need watching for some reason, but it's nothing I can can out my finger on. It's not in anything in particular he's said; more the tone I guess." This is a sort of typical Wolfish indefinite door-for-suspicion-open-talk.”)

[Nogrod]

I'll send you some quotes this time as well, even it will be a long one...


Okay, Hakon looks quite innocent in the following quotes...

Originally Posted by Hakon #171

I am protecting Pitch tonight as I have already stated and Wilwa is not protecting anyone since she will be coming after me with her pack mates.

and after Loslote suspected him…

Originally Posted by Hakon #184

I am not new to WW. I am on the newer side. This is my sixth or seventh game. I did not guard Pitchwife since I knew the wolves would expect that. They expected me to guard him so I avoided doing so and thus I can now guard him when they will go for him. I made that clear, did I not?

What did wilwa say yesterDay then?

Originally Posted by Wilwa #164

Both Pitch and Morsul are making me uneasy. I really don't know which is really being truthful. I am tempted to believe Morsul though. I mean think about it, if he was faking it wouldn't he have said that he too had dreamt of SPM?? Just to make it more believable? I don't know it's tough.....

Oh my Hakon. So I was right to vote you yesterDay. You're really going to make me do this aren't you??

Originally Posted by wilwa #168

I posted that then got off the computer to study for a bit, and I realised afterwards I should have never said who I protected, so I came back on. Besides, I'm not even positive Pitch is the dreamer, it could be Morsul. But it's so obvious to me that Hakon is evil, I just wanted it to be out there so we can definitely get a baddie today. I could always protect myself toNight and then get another protection (that only I know about) the following Night, or something. Like I said, I've never played this role before, so I'm not used to it.

Originally Posted by wilwa #221

Now. This may make alot of sense, but it also may not, to me it does anyway. I think me, Hakon and Pitch will all still be alive tomorrow. Because Hakon is wolf, so they're not gonna kill him. And they're not gonna kill me cause they're gonna want Hakon to continue to look good, and in order to do that they have to keep Pitch alive (since that's who he's supposedly "protecting") and me being dead, well it'll reveal who I really am and the wolves don't want that right now.

So we know we get atleast one more dream out of Pitch (two actually because I can protect him the next Night). I don't think he should waste that dream on me, Morsul or Hakon. We already know Morsul is the Agent, no reason to waste a dream on that, and you all know either me or Hakon are the Priest and a Wolf. So therefore the dream should go towards someone else all together. Make sense?

Originally Posted by wilwa #239

So I'm sure I'll still be here tomorrow, I can't see the wolves killing me and leaving HakonWolf out in the open like that. I really hope Pitch that you don't waste your dream on one of us, like I explained before.

Well first she says she believes Morsul more than Pitch but after being commented on playing to the wolves' hands and revealing she had protected Pitch the last Night by Roa she explains that she had realised her mistake in revealing her protection... and says she's "not even positive" Pitch is the real seer as it could be Morsul as well... hmm...

Interesting what she says about protecting herself btw. That's not a normal procedure and there seems to be no mention of it in the rules...

Then there are these "I'm sure I'm alive toMorrow" -things. The logic seems more or less correct but the way she kind of prepares for her being alive toDay looks fishy indeed. Although it is perfectly possible the wolves counted on that in part when making their decision last Night.

I don't know. wilwa is clearly on spot in this game and makes good points but also manages to make herself look pretty suspicious at times. Hakon is much more straightforwards and looks basically missing some of the subtleties but feels quite innocent.

That call for Pitch not to dream either of them in the end looks like a logical thing to say but somehow it feels a bit awkward... a bit premature or something.



With Inzil it’s kind of walking the rope again on Day2… Just check fex. how the following could be read:

Originally Posted by Inzil #132

I'd say Pitch is in the good books for sure. I'm anxious to see what his dream may have revealed. I'm afraid his time is likely short, but he should at least be able to give us a known innocent.

Defending himself from Kit who said he had not found anyone suspicious but Loslote & Nienna.

Originally Posted by Inzil #141

Actually, until Pitch's reveal, I have to say I was leaning toward Loslote. I didn't like her vote for Pitch, as it seemed to me she was simply grasping at the comments made by SPM and Nog (that I had noted earlier I thought were overreactions on their parts), and using them to justify her suspicion of Pitch.

To Hakon’s revealment and boasting of being right on Spm.

Originally Posted by INzil #153

I'll say nothing about your reveal in itself, save for the fact that you certainly should only have done this if you were in serious danger of being lynched. And yes, indeed you were right about SPM. I still don't endorse the thought process that led you to your conclusion though.

And the controversial one in full…

Originally Posted by Inzi #163

Here's why I have a tough time with this, Morsul.

Theoretically, Pitch could be a wolf, and his giving up SPM a plot to ensure his being thought innocent the rest of the game.
However, if Pitch survives beyond Day 3 or so, I would have to assume he was a wolf and go for him. Everyone knows that a revealed Seer is a dead Seer. It's only a matter of time. If he wasn't killed by the wolves after the oportunities for the Priest to protect him ran out, we'd have his number.
I do appreciate your giving me the all-clear though, as I am indeed innocent.

Originally Posted by #170

I think of the two Priest claimants, Hakon would be the more likely fraud, since there was *no* legitimate reason for him to have revealed.

And finally an answer to wilwa.

Originally Posted by #236

I don't know that wolves would leave a generally accepted seer alive, just to keep up a charade by one of their number. I think the logic there is a bit flawed.
I do think the seer / ranger confusion ought not to be a concern of ours when it comes to votes right now.

As on Day1 I would say Inzil looks a bit more innocent than guilty... but it's a thin line.


Okay, done with that. *phew*

Now some concentrated comments from the material I have been collecting and for some other things as well before going to bed.

[Loslote]

Crayon:

Post 1: warns that he might not be on at DL; informs that Roa might not make it on at all; suggests asking a random question to everyone to see how they respond.

Post 2: votes Inzil, no reason; accepts Crayon nickname.

Post 3: Is suspicious of wilwa and Hakon.

Post 4: votes Morsul because he doesn't think anyone else will vote for him, doesn't think it will matter too much if they do, and suspects that he may be a wolf.

Crayon hasn't posted much at all. This is his first game here, though, and according to Roa, he's been busy in RL. I'm not too suspicious of him right now. What little he's posted has been fairly well reasoned (excepting Post 2) and helpful.

[Nogrod]

Looking at the votes of those we'd need to choose toDay then…


Inziladun
D1
Votes Spm as first after the revealment. Neutral flag or even a positive one as a wolf might have wished to see whether the claim was believed in the first instance and restrained his vote for a moment (even if he had ended up with the same vote).
D2
Puts Nienna in front of me by one vote when it looked like it was a run between us two (innocents), had suspected her already.

So?: neutral on a bit more innocentish than guilty looking. Goes well with my thoughts of him after looking more closely at his posts today.

Loslote
D1 Voted early for Pitchie, for no real reasons (but it was early to be frank).
D2 Voted me an hour before the deadline with “a rushed vote” – as noted by some others totally misreading my post.

So?: Hard to say. Both votes are a bit unqualified ones if I may say so... But is it just inexperience and hurry or something more sinister? Hard to say indeed. Other factors but voting should be considered with her.

Roa
D1 Voted Spm before Pitchie’s reveal… kudos for her!
D2 Voted me twelve minutes before the DL putting me level with Nienna. What troubled me with that vote was that it came a bit out of the clear blue sky… she had made an analysis of me much earlier and said I was somewhat suspicious, but after that she had been silent about it. It still bugs me a bit to be honest… too good a timing.

So?: The D1 vote sure looks good - unless it was risky wolvery that was backed by a shot of incredible luck of getting into the book of innocents (or bad luck as Spm got lynched in the end). I didn't understandably like her vote on D2. So vote-wise I'd say good with reservations that need to be backed up from somewhere else than just voting (I'll try to look at her tomorrow eg. later in the Day).

Craydon1
D1 Votes Inzil with no reason given (apologizes for it on Day2 though).
D2 Makes a decent case why he votes for Morsul the agent even if those reasons have not been appreciated by the majority of the village. Says also interestingly: “I'm thinking that if I wanted people to not find out that I'm a wolf I would make myself clearly look like something else.” Whatever that means…

So?: No idea. If a submarine wolf then a most dangerous one as none would like to lynch a newbie-guy getting ready to go to war... Still I wouldn't suggest lynching him among the first ones we've have to choose.

Nerwen
D1 Goes with the bandwagon for Spm…saying “Well, then, it's now easy”.
D2 Takes an eyebrow-raising third-way giving Morsul the second vote five minutes before the DL. Claims she doesn’t wish to take sides in the choice between me and Nienna.

So?: D1 vote doesn't tell anything. Morsul had one vote already on D2 and she had suggested that choice earlier, so it looks a bit more innocentish. Unlike Brinn and Legate she could have entertained a real possibility of getting someone else than me or Nienna lynched - if that was her thought at the time; not wishing to see either of us lynched? But then again, if she knew we both were innocents wouldn't that be what a tricky wolf would do?

Legate
D1 Votes Spm as second after the revealment.
D2 Gives Inzil a second vote one minute before the DL for “indefinite door-for-suspicion-open-talk”.

So?: With the Spm-vote the same thing applies as with Inzil above. But his vote for Inzil on D2 looks quite suspicious indeed. Like washing his hands from lynching an innocent (like knowing there were two innocents at the gallows) and thus opening up a totally new voting one minute before the DL eg. knowing it would not succeed? The shared most suspicious one based on voting only.

Lariren Shadow
D1 Gives Spm his second last vote.
D2 Gives Nienna her second vote half an hour before the DL. Thinks her illogical + the first Day over-defensiveness.

So?: One more of these "hard to says". Waiting so long to vote for Spm might point to wolvery (wishing to see any miracles) but also to time-issues. D2 vote is just neutral.

Brinn
D1 Gives the last vote to Spm.
D2 Her vote for Inzil at one minute before the DL – opening a totally new path – while claiming she wouldn’t like to take part in a choice between me and Nienna looks pretty bad to me indeed. Not want to “take part”?

So?: What I said of Lari concerning D1, but her vote for Inzil looks pretty suspicious indeed. Like washing her hands from lynching an innocent (like knowing there were two innocents at the gallows) and thus opening up a totally new voting one minute before the DL eg. knowing it would not succeed? The shared most suspicious one based on voting only.



Counting only voting Brinn and Legate look the worse to me - mainly based on their votes on Day2. But they can't both be wolves which kind of dulls the edge...

It's easy to see why someone would look suspicious, but which are the right reasons to catch the actual baddie? Sorry Legate I seem to have forgotten the suggestion you made on the "known innocent syndrome"...

Anyway. I'm off to bed pretty soon as it's a bit too late anyway. But I'll be back at the latter part of the Day trying to make some more precise looks around.

[Pitchwife]

Some thoughts that just struck me reading Nog-Rodoth's list of quotes:

Originally Posted by wilwa #164

I am tempted to believe Morsul though. I mean think about it, if he was faking it wouldn't he have said that he too had dreamt of SPM?? Just to make it more believable

?
Would it really have been more believable? Imagine:
Seer 1: I'm the Seer.
Seer 2: Me too.
Seer 1: I've dreamt SpM, he's a wolf.
Seer 2: Me too.
Now that would have screamed fake, wouldn't it? I actually think Morsul was clever in claiming he'd dreamt something different, although it was a risky move (what if he'd revealed one of our gifted as ordo, or vice versa?). So if that was an attempt by a wilwolf to make her fake-revealing Agent look better, it fails for weak reasoning.
And Zil - most of what he's said up to now looks reasonable and logical to me (which probably means he's a wolf, but never mind, we can't second-guess ourselves all the time). His initial response to my reveal (i.e. mentioning I might be the Agent etc.) looks possibly wolvish on first sight (tarnishing the Seer's credibility), but I can't honestly fault him for it - I've done it myself as an innocent (when our Mod was the Seer and I the Ranger, for those who weren't there) and think wariness about an early Seer reveal is OK; but most of all, if he was a wolf he'd have known this approach would collapse as soon as SpM was lynched.
And finally there's this:

Originally Posted by Zil #241

I don't see that Nog was saying either of those things, really. Seems a bit of a reach.

He(=Zil)'s right, he(=Nog) wasn't. This adds to my impression that Lottie's misrepresenting what other people said to justify her suspicions of them (see my comments on what she said about Brinn above). Not sure whether it's really on purpose, this being her second game or so, but the tone of her posts sounds like she's gotten the hang of the game pretty well, so I'm sorry to say she doesn't look too good to me right now.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

He(=Zil)'s right, he(=Nog) wasn't. This adds to my impression that Lottie's misrepresenting what other people said to justify her suspicions of them (see my comments on what she said about Brinn above). Not sure whether it's really on purpose, this being her second game or so, but the tone of her posts sounds like she's gotten the hang of the game pretty well, so I'm sorry to say she doesn't look too good to me right now.

As I said, the vote was totally rushed. I was almost literally out the door at the time. My reading through of Nogrod's post at best gleaned surface impressions only. When I read through the post later, after DL, I was able to look closer, and yes, my first impression was wrong. I apologize again for being in such a hurry I couldn't properly analyze my suspect.

[Pitchwife]

Fair enough - I know perfectly well RL can mess up our WW perfomance at times. I'm also keeping in mind that SpM's vote on Day 1 speaks in your favour (with a slight question-mark). But you won't mind me going on watching you, will you?

[Lariren Shadow]

Sorry I haven't been around, I'm working on a major project about, ironically enough, the werewolf in Marie de France.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Well, the wolves didn't try Pitchie toNight. The question becomes, why?

Also I find it interesting right now that it was Kit they chose, and not fex. Roa and Legate as it seems basically no one suspects them...

And these two questions I find inter-related.

So they didn't try Pitchie, and the only reason for that would be that they were afraid of the ranger. But if they believed so strongly that the ranger would be able to protect Pitch as to not even try the seer, then why on earth not kill people like Roa or Legate who would then be pretty probably without protection?

Or is the whole scenario flawed in some basic way? I need to do some work but will return to these questions - and others in an hour or two.

It seems like the wolves feel comfortable at the moment. That maybe they thought that going after one of those who revealed was just a bad idea in general. Either you get blocked by Hakon's protection, or blocked by Wilwa's protection.

The question is then why didn't they go after Hakon? Wilwa said she would be protecting herself, and I'm not sure if that is even in the rules, but then why not kill him? Is it because he is a wolf or is he the Agent and they think that is a ploy for them? What if our thinking that Morsul is the Agent is wrong? What if he is a newbie wolf, told by his packmate to reveal falsely? Or could Hakon's not death point to that he is a wolf and possibly that Morsul is also a wolf and they planned a whole double reveal planning on not killing Pitch because the logical thing for the real Priest to do would be to protect the Dreamer?

Or this could be all farfetched.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

My question is why didn't they kill the real ranger? If they're afraid of the ranger, it makes sense to get him/her out of the way so that they have a clear path to the seer. The only reason not to is continue with this rediculous gamble. And besides, assuming the ranger was protecting Pitch, NO ONE ELSE in the village would have been protected, and NO ONE suspected Kitanna. She had such little attention on her that it would have been remarkable for her to suddenly gain the spotlight and get lynched. She's hardly comparable to you and I and Legate even when it comes to stage hogging.

Maybe they wanted to keep us questioning for a Day longer?

[Roa_Aoife]

Alright, I'm back. I'm going to do my analysis of Nerwen. As far as what's been said: I don't think Loslote is intentionally misrepresenting people. Other than her, no one has been paying attention to Brinn. She is, for better or worse, slipping under the radar. So even if she's been making straight on statements, they have not been the kind that grab attention. The fact that this is the first we've considered it is proof enough. I'll have a better idea once I do my own analysis of her, which will come after the analysis of Nerwen.