Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXVIII: A Full Moon Over Innsmouth

[Roa_Aoife]

Besides, the last few minutes of the previous Day set the tone and made it clear that you at least would come after me, so why kill me off and save the village from one massive distraction?

[Inziladun]

Well, my results of looking at Kit's posts suggest that her main suspect was Wilwa. That's who she voted for on Day 1 (she doesn't seem to have voted on Day 2). She didn't like Wilwa's Day 1 vote aginst Hakon.
She did an analysis of Lari and me, thinking Lari looked slightly 'dodgier'.
Other than this, my best guess is they went for her because, as Roa said, she hadn't been seriously suspected of anything and it was unlikely they could get her lynched. There were (and are) better candidates for their efforts on that score, including me.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Also I find it interesting right now that it was Kit they chose, and not fex. Roa and Legate as it seems basically no one suspects them...

Maybe they are just too sporty, like you often are, and rather would prefer to sportily lynch us [/sarcasm]

Anyway, on a serious note. As for Kitanna's death, it seems likely to me that indeed she was just a safe kill which creates no trail, is not going to be protected, maybe even could be assumed to be the target of a Seer dream, given how little was known about her? Anyway, there is still the question "before" this one: that is, okay, but why not one of the Rangers and co.
Well, I guess the reason would be an attempt to create confusion. There is basically no other explanation, obviously. But let me try to construct how it would work if Ranger A or Ranger B is the real one and the other was a Wolf, maybe that will help to cast some light on it (I am doing that for myself, "on the run", not sure if it will produce any valuable results, but let's see).

Case 1: Hakon is a real Ranger, Wilwa is a Wolf
The Wolves know Wilwa is one of them, therefore they also know Hakon is a real Ranger. Hakon, the real Ranger, said he can protect the Seer toNight. Therefore, there is no sense for them to attack the Seer. They could attack the Ranger, but what would that mean? That would mean instant death for Wilwa on the following Day. So not clever, possibly, better to keep the confusion around for a while and let us lynch a few more innocents at least?

Case 2: Wilwa is the Ranger, Hakon is a Wolf
Vice versa. Wilwa, the Ranger, said she cannot protect the Seer toNight. It would make sense for the WWs to attack the Seer, then, and get rid of him. It would mean, though, that Hakon will be exposed as a lying Ranger (though they could still try to outtalk it on the next Day, that he actually could not have protected the Seer, but he was bluffing to try to save him for one, resp. two more Nights). It is also distinctly possible that Wilwa the Ranger would be bluffing and actually protecting the Seer that Night, in that case, it would be a risk of losing the kill, and also helping Wilwa prove her innocence (as people would probably assume it was her who stopped the kill).

Well, if I were to choose the first scenario seems more plausible to me, somehow. But anyway... I guess what I am looking forward to the most now is to see Pitchwife's dream.

I need to think of things, too, and go through posts of people probably, again. I will be around for quite a while now.

EDIT: x-ed with Inzil and Nog

[Loslote]

Personally, I still think Hakon is a wolf, but I'm not nearly as certain who the other wolf is. My top guesses are Nogrod and [B]Brinn[B].

Brinn, first post, said she suspected everyone and was totally paranoid. Everyone rolled their eyes and ignored her. SPAM, first post, said he suspected everyone, too. We all laughed and forgot about it. I don't know if two wolves would do the same first post, but it does seem to have bought her a bit of time. Also, she's not been very active, so no one's focusing on her. I'm uneasy with the way everyone is giving her free pass.

Nogrod, Roa wasn't the first person to go for you. That was Nienna. Why are you blaming Roa? Also, you're asking why the wolves didn't kill Roa or Legate. Why should they? They're both very vocal players, and soon enough they'll say something that'll make us all lynch them. The wolves would have no reason to kill them, whereas Kitanna was trailless. We can't say why the wolves do anything, of course, but we also can't say why they wouldn't.

Edit: xed with Legate, Inzil, and Nogrod.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But what this actually tells us is that unlike some of you might think we shouldn't keep both our rangers alive indefinitively. One of them actually has to be a wolf and even if our numbers are nice at the moment they will dwindle with two by day - and trying them out will take two days (if we get it wrong the first time) meaning we may lose four people getting rid of one wolf. So we should not leave that to the last possible moment...

Which is not to say lynch one of them toDay. But in one or two Days we'd probably have to take sides with that issue.

Definitely agreed. Like you say, the moment had not arrived yet. We still have some time.

I see you Roa make an interesting "pre-defence" of yourself saying you are easy to lynch which would make you not on the top of their target lists were you innocent. I think I need to disagree with you there. If I was a wolf I would be darn terrified of you, anyway much more than I would be terrified of Kit. Just compare the "lynchability" after presenting something like "a case" on either of you two, or the influence either of you could have on the village if you got it right...

Well, I don't really know, Noggoth, but I think it was you who were modding the last game only a couple of weeks ago, and innocent Roa was lynched there quite splendidly with a large contribution of mine and other innocents, and you said yourself how you enjoyed watching the mistake happen, so I think you should have it in fresh enough memory not to speak too lightly of Roa's "lynchability"...

Anyway, as for that, maybe I am a lot too more careful after what happened the last time (if Roa is a Wolf this time, I may pity it), but I certainly am against making any artificial cases, and this far I do not have any reasons to suspect her. She seems okay. And I don't see what is your case against her (looks just artificial, as if you decided "Roa cannot be innocent, let's prove it"). Though there is something fishy on the whole business. Anyway, it's not what I want to concern myself with now. My questionmark still hovers above Inziladun, for example. Hm, I could really re-read some older posts people made.

EDIT: x-ed with Roa

[Loslote]

I don't suspect Inzil for the simple reason that he won't stop suspecting me. Most people saw SPAM's vote and said, "Okay then. Cross Lottie off the list." But Inzil thinks I'm a wolf, so he didn't. I think a wolf would let that one go, so since Inzil didn't, I don't think he is guilty.

Roa I can't say. She has been very helpful, and I don't see anything suspicious, but I also don't see anything that proves she can't be a wolf.

Legate makes good points sometimes, but other times he posts fluffy nothings, as I've said before. That doesn't add up to wolf in my book.

Crayon hasn't been the most vocal, but what he says seems to be well-thought out and helpful. I'm not suspicious of him.

I don't have much on Lari. She could easily be a wolf, but she doesn't jump out to me as one.

I'm waiting on Pitchie's dream. No suspicions there.

Edit: xed with Pitchie

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Brinn, first post, said she suspected everyone and was totally paranoid. Everyone rolled their eyes and ignored her. SPAM, first post, said he suspected everyone, too. We all laughed and forgot about it. I don't know if two wolves would do the same first post, but it does seem to have bought her a bit of time. Also, she's not been very active, so no one's focusing on her. I'm uneasy with the way everyone is giving her free pass.

Didn't want to write it out again.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Didn't want to write it out again.

I see. A lot of people make their first post of the game into banter, whether wolf or innocent. There are much better reasons to suspect someone.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

I see. A lot of people make their first post of the game into banter, whether wolf or innocent. There are much better reasons to suspect someone.

Admittedly, yes. That was just my starting point...and basically the reason why no one looked very closely at her later. She pretty much only posted 'first posts' on Day 1 (or at least that I found) with nothing of substance. When other players posted analyses of everyone, most of what was said about Brinn was, "hasn't posted much. Let's look at her later, when she's posted more." The only real 'substantial' post of hers that I found was complaining about the reveals and telling the 'gifteds' that they made her head hurt.

Edit: xed with Legate

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Loslote

She pretty much only posted 'first posts' on Day 1 (or at least that I found) with nothing of substance.

I've just been looking through Brinn's posts, and I find this rather exaggerated. OK, she didn't post much on Day 1, but in every post but her first she gave some opinions on other players and arguments for them (re: Hakon's suspicion of SpM, Nienna's overreaction to Morsul's vote, not lynching Hakon early, timing of my reveal and its consequences for voting analysis). Day 2 she posted more, she didn't only 'complain' about the reveals but discussed the situation, was wary of Zil (whom she voted in the end), even made a list giving her impressions of assorted players (not very conclusive, I admit). Not as much contribution as our louder players, but not what I'd call a submarine (unlike Cray, but see what Roa said of him).

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hm, as for having read Lari, I guess it would be good to see her around and posting more to get a better picture about her. This far, she could be 50-50 either for me. Though that suspicion of SpM on Day 1 would be somewhat too complicated to think of if it was orchestrated, but then, I really don't know that much about Lari to conclude how complicated schemes she could make (if it wasn't given as an idea to her by SpM himself anyway). Well, though I really don't know. Don't see her in particular as good as to vote for, but certainly watching her for now. Let's see what comes up.

Hm, I have the feeling that I had some other thought on my mind, but possibly forgot it.

Oh yes, maybe it was this, though I'm not sure - Crayon. Submarine. Scary. I know basically nothing about him. Though, well, what can one do about a newbie. And a submarine newbie. I hope he will be posting more on further Days, at least.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Oh yes, maybe it was this, though I'm not sure - Crayon. Submarine. Scary. I know basically nothing about him. Though, well, what can one do about a newbie. And a submarine newbie. I hope he will be posting more on further Days, at least.

Crayon's lack of activity- I can vouch that he is in the military and preparing for deployment, making him very busy. I cannot vouch for his in-game role, but I do know that that's why he hasn't been very active.

He could, of course, be using that to his advantage.

[Roa_Aoife]

Loslote- okay, that's better, and I can see your point. (Obviously, as I said it a short bit ago.)

Edit: crossed with Nogrod

[Loslote]

Brinn:

Post 1: Paranoid, suspects everyone.

Post 2: Doesn't suspect SPAM, dislikes meta-game reasoning, doesn't like random voting.

Post 3: Doesn't suspect Nienna for disliking Morsul's vote; Doesn't want to lynch Hakon and suspects Wilwa for wanting to; suspects me.

Post 4: Believes Pitchie but doesn't think he should have revealed; is sad to see SPAM go.

Post 5: Still doesn't think Pitchie's reveal was wise.

Post 6: Is annoyed by reveals; wonders whether Morsul is the agent, a wolf, or a confused ordo; wants to believe wilwa; her head hurts.

Post 7: wants to look more at other players.

Post 8: Doesn't find Nienna suspicious; wonders what Morsul is/was trying to do.

Post 9: is wary of Legate but not suspicious; wants to trust Roa but fears she is being fooled; doubts SPAM would try to lynch me if I were a wolf; doesn't particularly suspect Inzil; doesn't really have an opinion about Kitanna.

Post 10: Says the rangers may be bluffing, but doesn't think so; is uneasy about wilwa; agrees with Legate that Inzil wouldn't have agreed to Pitchie's not being a wolf, but then suspects him for saying he was innocent; finds Inzil 'creepy'.

Post 11: Still doesn't suspect Nienna; doesn't like the bandwagon against her; doesn't want to vote Nogrod, either.

Post 12: Doesn't want to vote Ni or Nog; votes Inzil for being 'creepy'.

I wanted to look closer because my memory isn't perfect, and I didn't want a suspicion based purely on gut feelings. After looking through her posts, though, I still think she's suspicious.

EDIT: xed with two Roas

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Crayon's lack of activity- I can vouch that he is in the military and preparing for deployment, making him very busy. I cannot vouch for his in-game role, but I do know that that's why he hasn't been very active.

He could, of course, be using that to his advantage.

Okay, well yes, that's why I said I hope to see more from him in the future. I am normally not that worried of people who slip outside the attention (we have other people for that ), but this is just the fact that we have most likely only one Wolf outside the spotlights (eventually, we will lynch the other, in one way or the other), so it's that basically apart from the known innocent Nogrod, oneself, the Seer, the two Rangers, and Morsul(likely Agent), you have some seven people to choose from, and six of them are innocent. Uh, really? So little? Well yes, could be... so wait... Inzil, Roa, Brinn, Nerwen, Lari, Crayon... is that all? So one Wolf is (most likely) in there? Hm, nice.

EDIT: Ha! Whom did I miss? Now that would be the most convinient way of spotting a Wolf I have ever seen! (Read above what I said )
EDITEDIT: Oh, okay. I missed Loslote. Hm, well, I really think her innocent.

[Nogrod]

Here's the voting first with quotes of reasons given. There are no explanations for known innocent votes (to save time).


Morsul -> Nienna
(“firstly she acts far too innocent to be also notice Mccab put quotes around innocent Hmm a slip on our mods part?”)
Hakon -> Inzil
(“He has a track record as being a wolf and he has gotten past my radar every time. I am not taking the risk of letting him live.”)
Loslote -> Pitchie
(“same as Inzil, only his posts worry me more. He seemed to be jokingly trying to get on everyone's good side...but it might just be Day 1 behavior.” What she said of Inzil: “I'm not entirely comfortable with him, but nothing that I can really base a suspicion on.”)
Crayon -> Inzil 2
(no reason whatsoever given for the vote)
wilwa -> Hakon
(“So...Hakon has played many games, and therefore should have some better logic by now I would think. His vote and comments are weird and I don't like them”)
Spm -> Loslote
(“Overall, Loslote’s activity comes across to me as typically Wolfish. Posting a fair bit to show she’s engaged, trying to look helpful, but actually avoiding saying very much of anything at all.”)
- 1.42 Nienna -> Pitchie 2
- 1.28 Nogrod -> Nienna 2
- 1.13 Kit -> wilwa
- 1.12 Roa -> Spm
(“Because he has been throwing around suspicion as if it had the full weight of sound reasoning behind it when it didn't. And also because in all of his actual suspicions (not counting the banter) someone else expressed if not suspicion then unease or wariness in that direction first, which he then played up into a case with no merit.”)
- 1.05 Pitchie -> Spm
- 0.48 Inzil -> Spm 2
(“If this turns out to be a bust, we'll have an obvious target toMorrow.”)
- 0.45 Legate -> Spm 3
(“I don't think there is anything to wonder about, it would really make no sense to make a claim here if it was untrue...”)
- 0.43 Nerwen -> Spm 4
(“Well, then, it's now easy)
- 0.34 Greenie -> Spm 5
- 0.32 Lari -> Spm 6
(“If he is a wolf, that will validate Pitch.”)
- 0.18 Brinn -> Spm 7
(“Okay, I believe you since I see absolutely no reason a baddie would false reveal at this point, but I still think it is rather premature to be revealing even if you have caught a wolf. For one thing, seers have been known to catch two wolves in the past, but revealing now severely limits that opportunity. Though I'm glad at least you waited until the end of the Day so that we'll still have plenty of posts to analyse toMorrow from before we knew Spm's role (and thus be more likely to find connections).”)


A few other remarks on Day1 (looking basically at Inzil - but also Spm, Hakon and wilwa).

EDIT: Blah... I pushed the send button when I was trying to push the preview button... Okay, the rest in a minute...

[Nogrod]

First of all must be said that with wilwa and Hakon we have just soo different players in front of us. The one being very much streetwise, making good general points and being active; the other being short and straightforward bordering on letting an impression he's not totally at home with this...

Originally Posted by Wilwa #29

No way am I gonna make it obvious that I'm a wolf just to make you're life easier.....oops.

I don't like these jokes. They always smell at least like a small rat.


Then there is this nice pick: a wolf addressing his fellow…

Originally Posted by Spm #32

And there was me thinking that you would vote for whoever looks least suspicious to you ...

Actually, I think wilwa has it about right. Barring any major slip-ups from the Wolves, Day 1 votes are pretty much random, whatever reasons people might come up with. Except the Wolves' votes, of course. And that is one of the main reasons why what happens on Day 1 can be so useful on Day 2.

And I just don't know what to say of this...

Originally Posted by Hakon #51

Also on a side note, I think SPM is a wolf. There is no way he is an ordinary innocent. I mean he is back now after being gone for years, it makes perfect sense to give him some kind of non ordinary innocent role so he can show off his apparently awesome skills at werewolf.

But as Legate already noted, I also started feeling a bit better of Inzil after reading him. But check the following posts yourselves...

First there is this quite cool reaction to an early vote by Hakon

Originally Posted by Inzil #56

I'd prefer to earn a lynching with my actions in this circumstance, but there you go.

Although if they were mates this would be understandable reaction to a fellow-wolf's vote...

Originally Posted by Inzil #96

Hakon's vote, as so many have noted, was illogical, but it is somewhat in character for him to vote based on hunches and such. I don't think I'll go for him toDay.

That one was actually a crosspost with Pitchie's revealment...

But would a wolf say this after a revealment he knows is true and seeing the votes rolling in for his mate?

Originally Posted by Inzil #108

I guess it's possible Pitch could be the Agent, but trusting him for now seems to be the logical thing to do. At least we'll have somthing concrete to go on toMorrow, one way or the other.

Wouldn't it be easier to just go with the flow as basically everyone did?


How about wilwa who before Pitchie’s revelation said this as an answer to Hakon suspecting Spm for meta-game reasons (quoted above).

Originally Posted by wilwa #73

And keep in mind, if you insist to use that sort of logic for SPM, that wolf is not the only non-ordinary innocent role. And most roles are chosen randomly any who, so it's not that unlikely that he's innocent.

Okay. I'll check Day2 before making any deductions myself...

[Roa_Aoife]

Loslote

Day 1

Post 1- "I'm here"

Post 2- DL isn't very good for her

Post 3- Tells Morsul that the narration doesn't hold any clues

Post 4- Reminds Morsul to be invisible

Post 5- Response to Craydon's idea

Post 6- Response to Inzil about Craydon's idea

First six posts and nothing of consequence. Not necessarily evil. It is only her second game.

Post 7- List!
Suspicious: SPM and Pitch
Everyone else: No read?

It's hard to tell what she's getting at. She says things like, "posted-nice sounding nothings," but didn't elaborate. She either finds everyone slightly suspicous in someway (unless they haven't been on) or no one suspicious at all except SPM and Pitch

Post 8- Votes Pitch

An early vote, which is always at a disadvantage. She did give a reason, even if it was poor, but a lot of people were doing that at the time. Day 1 had nothing suspicous except for the 7th post, and that was understandable, given the Day and the lack of evidence.


Day 2

Post 1- Statement on reveals: Agent- Morsul, Priest- Wilwa, Pitch- Dreamer
gives reasons for each

Sound ideas, but mostly what had already been said, reasoning and all.

Post 2- Corrects the odds of finding a wolf. Agrees that we should leave the "gifteds" alone for now, says we'll only know for sure if Pitch dies tonight

She confuses the roles a bit, but since they have different names it;s not surprising. I can understand her point.

Post 3- Apologizes for mixing up the roles.

Post 4- decides to look at Legate's posts "at random", decides Legate is an ordo.

I found this post confusing, because her response to alot of Legate's posts make it sound like she thinks Legate is suspicious, but at the end she just drops it. It seems very non-sequitor.

Post 5- Votes Nogrod because of post #238, doesn't feel very secure about his vote.

The vote for Nogrod came out of nowhere, but it seems she felt rushed and confused, which is understandable given the events of the Day. Aside from from looks like non-sequitor reasoning, there really isn't anything suspicious.


Day 3

Post 1- Thinks Hakon is a wolf. Suspects Brinn- first post was very similar to SPM, and has generally been ignored- and Nogrod- for his suspicion on Roa?

I don't follow her reasoning on Nogrod, but I can see how Brinn would make her uneasy.

Post 2- Doesn't suspect Inzil, Roa- can't say, Legate- fluffy but not furry, Crayon- unsuspicious, Lari- nothing, Waiting for Pitch

At least she's very clear about her opinions.

Post 4- still worried by Brinn, thinks she is the other wolf

Post 5- reclarifies for Roa the suspicions about Brinn

Post 6- further clarification, per Roa's request

Honestly, I see nothing suspicious about Loslote. Her reasons remain structurally sound, even if they seem non-sequitor to me. But then, not everyone uses the same reasoning I do.

[Roa_Aoife]

I am just posting this to help myself and others focus a bit. It's less overwhelming that way. If we ignore Hakon and Wilwa, and we each take our own role into account, that leaves 7 people for each of us to look at in order to find the last wolf.

Knowns:
Pitchwife- seer
Nogrod- Innocent
Morsul- Agent

50/50:
Hakon- wolf/priest
wilwa- wolf/priest

One of these is the last wolf:
Inziladun
Loslote
Roa
Craydon1
Nerwen
Legate
Lairen Shadow
Brinn

Legate, you forgot Loslote in your list, unless you're convinced of his innocence.