Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXVIII: A Full Moon Over Innsmouth

[Kitanna]

Inzil
Post 1: In character
Post 2: Comments on a post made by Greenie. Mentions there is a difference between playing style and a "a non-entity that slips quietly through the cracks"
Post 4: Thinks Nogrod and SpM overreacted to Pitchwife's first post.
Post 5: Comments on Craydon's idea of asking questions of the village.
Post 7: Comments on Hakon's vote. Mentions SpM, but it looks like this is only an example of not using meta-game voting.
Post 8: Throws some suspicion Loslote's way. Also he mentions Nienna's reaction to Morsul's vote as seeming a bit odd. Decides to stay away from Craydon based on newness and Hakon for being his usual self.
Post 10: Asks Pitchie if revelation was a bit premature.
Post 11: Votes SpM
Post 12: Says Pitchie could be the agent, but decides whatever happens on Day 1 will give us something for Day 2.
The posts I left out weren't anything of real interest, mostly just quick responses to this or that.
In conclusions, Inzil doesn't seem good or bad either way. He voted like everyone else did after the reveal so there's nothing to go on there. He mentioned all three of the knowns (SpM, Greenie, and Pitchie), but didn't really say much about any of them. As far as I can tell Inzil didn't really find anyone suspcious, though he did have a few things to say about Loslote and Nienna, but none of that suggested he'd have voted for them yesterday.

Lariren
Post 1: Mostly Day 1 jabber. Agrees we should stay positive about catching a wolf that day.
Post 2: Puts a little suspicion out there on SpM, suggesting he could have been trying to hint to the wolves to "play their parts". Suggests Hakon may be trying to throw off suspicion by throwing it on SpM. Questions Loslote's jump on Craydon's idea.
Post 3: Vote count, lists suspects. Loslote, Hakon, SPM, and Brinn make her need watching list. Wilwa alone falls in the "keep them around" list.
Post 4: Explains what she meant about keeping Wilwa around, wanted to say seems innocent in a new way. Mentions Nienna's reaction to her vote, but doesn't find it anything special. Another vote count.
Post 5: Wary of Pitchie's reveal, says she'll vote SpM or possibly Hakon.
To me Lariren seems a bit more dodgy than Inzil, but not by a lot. In her list she says who she wants to watch and why, but doesn't say much else about what she thinks. Her vote for SpM isn't a surprise and I think she might have voted that way regardless of the reveal.

That's what I have time for now. ToDay is a bad day for me because of work. I'll be around for an hour or so in a few hours then I'll reappear once more about four hours before DL. I'll finish my looks into those SpM suspected and talked about later.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

As far as I can tell Inzil didn't really find anyone suspcious, though he did have a few things to say about Loslote and Nienna, but none of that suggested he'd have voted for them yesterday.

Actually, until Pitch's reveal, I have to say I was leaning toward Loslote. I didn't like her vote for Pitch, as it seemed to me she was simply grasping at the comments made by SPM and Nog (that I had noted earlier I thought were overreactions on their parts), and using them to justify her suspicion of Pitch.

[Pitchwife]

Good morning, fellow citizens! Cthulhu smiled on us yesterDay, but last Night the waters of my dreams were cloudy as far as the scrying of wolves is concerned. I can identify an innocent, but unfortunately that will not help us much, as the wolves have revealed her role before me. In other words, Greenie was my dream (because she really fooled me last time around, I have a bad habit of not looking at her closely enough, and she hadn't posted much to judge her from otherwise).
Unfortunately, it looks like I won't be able to help Innsmouth much more except by ordinary guesswork - unless the Priest pulled off a daring gamble last Night and refrained from protecting me. Makes me have second thoughts about that early reveal now... but it can't be helped.

[Pitchwife]

While I'm talking - I'm not sure how much we'll gain from The Saucepan Wolf's posts. I reckon he'd be cunning enough not to implicate his packmates in any obvious way, and I wouldn't put it beyond him to passingly suspect, or even vote, one of them. His vote for Lottie surely makes her look innocent for now, but it's not conclusive evidence.

Originally Posted by Roa

I highly doubt that SPM would seriously try to lynch a fellow wolf so early in the game.

In my eyes, giving somebody a single vote without a solid case behind it long before DL doesn't exactly amount to 'seriously trying to lynch' her; but I suppose you're more familiar with SpM's style than I am. If we only consider her own posts, Lottie looks unsuspicious enough to me.

[Nienna]

Nog analysis:

Note: I've had to remove the smilies as one isn't allowed to post more than 3 in one post.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

That is an interesting concept for the new cosmology... we may need to study that further...

Well, of course you don't as no one has done anything.

So think of a detective.... How does one get to start making conclusions? Well, when there is data to build the deductions on. And are there any right now? No.

It's so sad a student of parallel universes has to tell you this universe is dull and void...

And without meaning.

Unless we find some. Let me see...

First post… wants to find some data to build suspicion on

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Let's take the infamous rule that one of the first posters is a wolf as they have a desire to be active...So SPaM, Pitchie, Inzil, Loslote...?

I would be surpriesed indeed if one of them was not a wolf but then again being among the first ones to post should not be a reason to lynch anyone on any Day as such.

Anyway, shouldn't you guys be able to make even one case against someone so that we could get actually started?


Let me show you an example at this time of the Day... (sad it is but it's something compared to what you have done this far)

SPM is just so nice (and a perfect cover making that funny list and all) - but as he has not been around for years I would not like to suggest lynching him toDay on that... Be there real reasons it'd be different.

I get a bit disturbing feeling from Pitchie's first post. It feels like he tries to look like a critical and autonomous person but still rubbing Spm the right way... Also the way he praises Greenie for great points looks more like trying to make friends than actually giving a verdict on something to the benefit of the townsfolk. So slightly worrying.

Inzil manages to post thrice to say nothing in particular. Suspicious.

Loslote looks either lost (with time?) or just pure evil. Nienna looks no better...

But Wilwa then? All the showed optimism and the explanations of not being around all the time... Just what a wolf would write... keeping up appearances, you know?

Lari I'm a bit baffled about as she says basically the same the others before her but I'm not as suspicious of her. Maybe that means she actually is a baddie?

I always suspect Greenie - and she is always a bad girl! Now this much praised talk of the general terms is just what an intelligent wolf would do. Stay on the abstract level and speak of things people would like to hear and agree on. The most basic wolf-tactics...

Legate seems a bit disinterested as well. Nothing to go for without some toil, sure but maybe he's being too easy?

The thing fitting for every wolf: the more we just keep on saying "hi there, nice to meet you" or "let's kill the bastards"; or taking the meta-level in the beginning like "the quiet ones can be productive / should be lynched immediately"; or just plain refusing to "open the game" with any suspicions...

So let's do the town a favour and not lynch the controversial people but a nice one.

The wolwes need to be nice, we don't. The wolves don't need to find the culprits, we have to do that.

They can rub you the right way anyrime, we can't afford that with anyone.

Think about that unless you had more important things to think about...

This post is interesting. He makes comments about early posters and it actually turned out that the first person to post was a wolf. I’m not really sure why he brought that up as it doesn’t seem like a point most people find serious… maybe he had insider knowledge?

The rest of the post is basically a normal Nog rant about killing the quiet ones.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Why wouldn't you do it Wilwa?

And I actually mean it whatever your role is. If you get lynched early because of what you say but thus help us others to spot a wolf you'll be a hero. So be brave and open your mind! Why can't you?

And anyway, why will not everyone say things aloud?

Okay the first posters are a thing in themselves as there is nothing to build any opinios on but already now I think there is a lot to be said (which I have kind of tried to exemplify in my last post).

So there are no more excuses to say just "hello", "have a good Day" or "let's get those bastards"...

That's like over and done with.

It would be much better if you actually said something yourself and not just called for others to say something - as reasonable as that call is in itself.

The wolves love to take that kind of a posture: say what is wise but not expose their own necks to actually do that which they think the others should do...

Okay. Sleep for me as well now but I'll be back later in the Day...

Reaffirms points from his last post, challenges Wilwa to actually say something controversial that may expose a wolf. He keeps saying things like this but then doesn’t really say anything controversial of his own…

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Exactly. Although it should be added that it's difficult, or probably even impossible , to ignore all the meta-reasons one has for suspecting people on Day1. But it's a different thing to have suspicions based on some meta-reasons than to try and argue for ones votes with them.

Like I just can't help it that because Greenie has so totally fooled me a few times lately and I have the feeling she's always a baddie it makes me suspect her also on this Day. Or if I thought the mod had made a slip in the narration I couldn't help that thought affecting my suspicions, but I couldn't argue my "case" based on that slip as it would be kind of "unsporty" (some of you might remember Glirdan's game where he slipped the gender of the last wolf in the narration that one being the only one of that sex left).

So let's try not to suspect people based on meta-reasons and at least not use them as arguments...


Okay. Off with the meta-reason discussion with me.

I need to make a pie for the girls but I will think while doing it. But just from the last posts a few little things...

Somehow the way how Lari makes her comment on wilwa strikes me: It may be that she just wished to express herself differently (there are many of whom she says only "seems innocent" or "pretty innocent looking" etc.). But of wilwa she says that we should keep her around with actual backing / arguments for why she thinks so. And I think there had been some suspicions raised on wilwa, so that would fit "nicely" ...

Secondly I do share Legate's concern on Nienna. The way she reacted to one badly backed vote early in the voting really looks like she felt the whole village was after her. And that's something the wolves tend to feel more easily than innocents.

EDIT: X'd with wilwa

Doesn’t want to use meta game reasons for suspicion, begins to find me suspicious because I defended myself against Morsul’s vote. This seems like a timid latch onto Legate’s suspicion maybe to see if it would lead to my lynching…

Originally Posted by Nogrod

It's interesting you say that you think that those who see Nienna's reactions to a first vote of the Day as over-nervous á la wolves are suspicious but then base your own vote on something as solid as what you say in the quote above...

Wouldn't this quote of yours describe also your vote and your reasons for it?


Okay. Yes, there's very little to go on as usual on Day1 and we all have to find whatever there could be to help us in our judgements. I think you Spm are reading way too much in Loslote's indecisiveness and I see more merit in the fact that Nienna reacted so strongly on the vote on her. I don't think either is a good "case" in any way but both are better than nothing.

But are they or either of them correct arguments? That's the tough one...

EDIT: X'd with Roa

Wolf on wolf with SPM and Nog?... I don’t know…

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Okay.

Apart from Nienna I seem to have only one decent pair of candidates which is Lari and wilwa - and I need to run for the choir rehearsals in a moment.

Now I see many people have raised concerns with wilwa but just suggesting that people should talk a lot even if they don't have a lot to say is not the greatest possible argument against her. Actually it doesn't make her look guilty in any way. But the sudden defence of her by Lari (with actual points why - which she gave practically of none else) when some suspicion started to emerge raises my eyebrows to be sure.

I just saw Nienna's post and am not sure what to say of it. Her explanation feels genuinish but it reminds me of yet one thing that looked so overdefensive about her, eg. quoting herself in the admin. thread before the roles were dealt. If that is not over-defensive then what is?

And I am a bit confused about her vote as well...

Bah. Needs to vote now.

++ Nienna


EDIT: X'd with Kit

He votes for me even though he thought my explanation was genuinish, but then said that I was over defensive and apparently that makes me a wolf. This seems like a pretty good way to start a bandwagon.

In summary I think Nog is one of the more suspicious people toDay.

[Pitchwife]

And stating the obvious, Roa looks pretty good up to now. She was quite energetic in her suspicion of SpM and the only one who voted him before I revealed.
Among those who voted after said reveal, Lari is the only one who had voiced suspicion of SpM earlier and, as Kit points out, might have voted him anyway. Looks good as well.

[Nienna]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

And stating the obvious, Roa looks pretty good up to now. She was quite energetic in her suspicion of SpM and the only one who voted him before I revealed.
Among those who voted after said reveal, Lari is the only one who had voiced suspicion of SpM earlier and, as Kit points out, might have voted him anyway. Looks good as well.

I don't know as I would write off either Roa or Lari based on their SPM suspicions just yet. Especially Roa as before you revealed it didn't seem likely that people would vote for SPM if only because he has just returned to WW. A wolf might think that suspecting him would take the heat off of them if he was found out a wolf exactly like you are doing now. I'm not saying that they are in any way guilty but I don't know as I would say that their suspicion of SPM makes them innocent either.

[Pitchwife]

Nienna, point taken - but 'looks good' is not a synonym for 'is innocent', it just means 'looks more unsuspicious than suspicious to me until further evidence'.
I was about to give Nog bonus points, too, for commenting on the infirmity of SpM's 'case' against Lottie, but now you mention it, his wavering in the question of your over-defensiveness seems noteworthy.

[Pitchwife]

Where is everybody? I haven't got all day, and that Zann toccata's waiting for me; if nobody's talking, I'll go on working on that for a while, hoping to finish the transcription while I'm alive. Back in a couple of hours.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hello, fellow villagers! Yog-Sothoth!

Okay, let's see now. As for what happened, I would say the death of Greenie is very, very probably a no-track kill. Unless the WWs are really good in reading minds and it was there to intercept the Dreamer's dream, which I doubt, though.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

"I don't like him" because of his bad logic. I think that's fairly logical. I came on yesterday expecting to do a random vote cause it was still fairly early and I hadn't yet seen anyone suspicious, but I saw the "Inzil's been a wolf so many times he might be now too" and found it to be the most suspicious thing so far, therefore I voted for him. Better then a random vote, which is what it would have been otherwise.

Okay, fair enough, I see the point now. Does not call back watching you, but point taken...

As for SpM, though...

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

SPM throws serious suspicion at Pitchwife (who we know to be innocent) and Loslote. I highly doubt that SPM would seriously try to lynch a fellow wolf so early in the game. It’s simply not his style.

I think so too. Actually, as far as I can recall, it would really seem SpM-ish to me that he would mention one of his fellows, and that's about it. And he would not even need to suspect him, necessarily. I think he is usually not the type to do that, not that early anyway. So basically, what Roa said. Which, by the way, makes me think good of her, as it looks like genuine reasoning (unless they are culprits and are diverting our attention, of course, but I don't think so now).

As for the people SpM posted about. Loslote then is very likely clear for me. I don't know that much about Inzil, but I must confess I haven't been paying that much attention to him, so I may as well start to do it now and get a better picture of him anyway. As for Lari's interaction with SpM (especially such as on the second page), well, I must say I was slightly suspicious of Lari by the end of yesterDay, after looking at SpM's posts, but on the other hand, orchestrating a Wolf-on-Wolf suspicion on such a weird comment, like saying that SpM is an Agent... unless it would be a deliberate way of creating a "shield" to defend SpM in the future (the Wolves could then say "hey yes, he is suspicious, but he's likely just an Agent, so let's not waste a lynch on him"). But for some reason that sounds to me quite too much complicated plan, which I don't think the Wolves would pull so soon.

Oh, by the way. We have an Agent here. Let's not forget it. He could make a lot of mess. Just to keep it in mind.

Well, I am not sure if I will be around now, it's rather late here, though I will be certainly (or hope I will be) more active tomorrow, that is, in some ten hours... or maybe a bit more, not to be too optimistic. Or maybe I'll pop in yet now, and be around for a while.