Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Brinniel]

Guarding:

++Nogrod

[Brinniel]

Why do you want to save her then?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Why do you want to save her then?

I don't. I said I wanted Hakon dead. Big difference, and don't try to turn it around.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Right. So. Since my analysis from the previous DAY still seems to be relevant toDAY, I shall post it here.

One of my best clues for catching Werewolves is the intention behind the vote. Not the given one, but what he actually wishes to accomplish with his vote, which is determined by the recipient, time it was cast, whether it created a tie or broke one, etc. A Werewolf would not put his fellow at unnecessary risk by casting a vote for him when there's a chance that he would be lynched as a result, and there is also a chance that an innocent can be lynched. That being said, it is a pity that Inziladun has participated in two fatal bandwaggons, where it has indeed been proven that the recipients of his votes are innocent, albeit dead ones. However it is to be noted that on DAY 1 he cast a vote for Boro to be Night Guarded, where there was still a chance that Boro might end up 'winning'. (Facts: Inziladun voted almost 3 hours before the deadline, putting Boro in solo second with 2 votes, behind Legate with 3. There were still 12 votes left to be cast.) Had Boro been Night Guarded, and there had been one kill the next NIGHT, would there have been any doubt as to Boro's fate?

Therefore, Boromir88 is 99% innocent to me. Only the Seer can correct me now, and she, unfortunately, is already dead.

On DAY 2 Inziladun cast a vote for Nogrod to be Night Guarded. He was at the end of a bandwaggon (he was 6th to vote), and it was nearly at the end of the DAY (5 minutes before the deadline). Now, the Werewolves do not know for certain what our reaction to a second one-kill NIGHT would have been, despite already having poisoned that well with Legate's body. Therefore having a fellow Night Guarded is still a risky proposition. However the vote's placement still allows for a possible Wolf-on-Wolf. Had Nogrod been lynched the next DAY, and had he turned out to be a Werewolf, then Inziladun would have looked good.

I have no conclusion on Nogrod's innocence or guilt based on Inziladun's vote, and will have to resort to other methods.

Brinniel was the only one to receive Inziladun's vote and survive. Take note that there were not votes for Brinn then, indeed hardly any suspicion. So why? Despite the two votes against him there were no indication that the bandwaggon would have been successful; therefore it would have been better to have voted for someone with suspicion. I have not yet analysed Brinn's voting/posting, something I hope to rectify later, so my only sign so far points against her.

Up-to-date analysis to follow.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Um, well, there are some people who seem to be blocked out my radar. Isabellkya was one, until recently. Another one is Greenie, all apologies to her. Good thing she has but a few posts, making this a quick analysis. Notes:

• DAY 1: (36) Disagreed with the Plan.
• (95, 120, 138) Seemed to have homed in on Nogrod.
• DAY 2: (218) Logical conclusion to the Legate question.
• (290) Voted for Nogrod to be Night Guarded.
• DAY 3: (411) Posted a list with a lot of unknowns (including Inziladun).
• (436) Voted for Sally when it was almost certainly impossible that she would be lynched. (The same, however, could have been said of me on DAY 2.)
• DAY 4: (482) Posted a new list, flipflopping on Hakon's innocence and moving Nogrod from Creepy to Unknown.

She seems to have avoided attention entirely, avoiding most lynching bandwaggons (except the Legate one). However his ever-changing stance on Nogrod's innocence is confusing--and troubling. Not enough to lynch, but--gah! why must there be more suspicious people than innocent-looking ones?

Cos humans are only human.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

McCaber has less posts than most of the dead (non-modfired) villagers.

• DAY 1: (111) Described the possibility of a bluff with a Night-Guarded innocent and a one-kill NIGHT with startling prescience.
• (141) Voted for wilwa for 'silly discussion on the previous page.' (wilwa had no posts on the previous page, and her posts on the page before that is regarding the details and possible problems of the Plan, hardly silly discussion in my opinion. Take note that this was also the DAY Mnemo voted for wilwa due to her 'crack theory.')
• (null) Did not vote for anyone to be Night Guarded. (As did I, but only because I do not wish to spoil my beautiful self-vote. )
• DAY 2: (198) 'We have time for a Legate lynch toDay.' But observe his vote later that DAY.
• (305) Summarised a DAY 'more interesting than I had originally wanted.'
• (319) Guard vote for Nogrod, vanilla reasons. Lynch vote for Inziladun, despite his comments about a 'Legate lynch earlier.'
• DAY 3: (368) 'Told you so' statement. Made a roundabout declaration of innocence by stating that all four Wolves must have been in the Legate bandwaggon.
• (435) Believed Nogrod to be innocent. Commented on the Werewolves possible thought processes. (Him speaking about submarines as possible Werewolves, when it can be said that he is, in fact, one, points to intellectual honesty. Or a moment of boldness.) Commented on the long-dead Plan.
• DAY 4: (514) Comments on Hakon and Pitchwife. Created distance with the Hakon bandwaggon again.
• (null) No vote.

The most striking point against McCaber is his DAY 2 actions. We have his changing intentions regarding Legate, first saying that we have time to lynch him, and then when it seemed that his vote was no longer needed to lynch him, voted for someone else (a fellow Werewolf). To look good when saying 'I told you so'? To cover himself in case Inziladun gets lynched (which did happen eventually)? Lacking more concrete suspects, and since I might have no time to go back and post it--also, no time to read his rebuttal of my suspicions --I shall cast my vote for him. As in now:

++McCaber

and

++Boromir88.

Analyse the data yourself. You'll believe me when I say he's innocent.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Analysis of the others with more posts will have to come tomorrow, provided you or I am still alive by then.

[A Little Green]

I feel stupid.

And lost. Two of my three main suspects (Hakon yesterDay and Nerwen last Night) turned out to be innocent. Which not only makes me seriously doubt my own judgement but also leaves me in a position where I suspect one person (Sally) and have no idea of or don't suspect the rest when there should be three werewolves left... Seems like I have to look at the game afresh and see if there is something I have missed.

Originally Posted by Nilp

She seems to have avoided attention entirely, avoiding most lynching bandwaggons (except the Legate one). However his ever-changing stance on Nogrod's innocence is confusing--and troubling. Not enough to lynch, but--gah! why must there be more suspicious people than innocent-looking ones?

Firstly, about Nogrod. It seems you don't take into account the ever-changing nature of Nogrod's playing in this game. On Days 1 and 2 he was just over-aggressive and intolerant of differing opinions which made me suspect him quite a lot. Then, later, he ceased to behave that suspiciously. So what should I do? Carry on pushing a suspicion I'm no longer sure of (or even almost sure of) just for the sake of continuity?

Secondly, about avoiding attention - that's not my fault, is it? I'm contributing as much as I can, more than many, and if people don't pay attention to me then that's hardly something I can affect other than by screaming "Heeeeeeeeeeey I'm a wolf!" or something like that.


EDIT: x-ed with Nilp x2

[A Little Green]

There seems to be a lot of suspicion of McCaber around. Admittedly, those analyses people write of him make him look pretty bad. I'm only worried about whether it's too easy once again, a bit like what happened with Hakon.

[Nienna]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

There seems to be a lot of suspicion of McCaber around. Admittedly, those analyses people write of him make him look pretty bad. I'm only worried about whether it's too easy once again, a bit like what happened with Hakon.

I'm thinking the same thing. I think more analysis has to be done on the players who haven't come under any scrutiny. I have to go out now but I'll be back later to help with that.

If McCaber does end up being the most suspicious then we should lynch him but there are three wolves so we need to root out the others as well.

[Nogrod]

Well I must join those who were surprised with Hakon not being a wolf...

BUt just few things for starters.

First of all what should we make of the following?

THe last guard-vote tally was given by Stally at 5 minutes before the DL and it stood like this (leaders at the moment bolded by me):

Originally Posted by Sally

Guard:
Nerwen-->Nienna
Greenie-->Boro
Sally-->Nienna (2)
Wilwa-->Nienna (3)
Boro-->Nilp
Hakon-->Nilp (2)
Nienna-->Sally (awwww, thanks!)

After that, at
.59 Pitchwife voted to guard Nerwen (who died during the Night)
.59 Brinn voted to guard me
.00 I voted to guard Nienna (because I thought her more safe to us than Nilp and had a chance to try and make sure she got protected)

Now you might already see where I'm getting at...

If you ask me both Pitchie's and Brinn's guard-votes look odd - and not in a good way. At the last minute they both threw in new candidates even if it was quite clear we had to choose between Nienna and Nilp.

But what does it then mean? I don't know.

I could see a wolf-Brinn throwing that kind of "feel good / look good" guard-vote to me and later when I'm dead she could say she trusted me as much as to protect me earlier.

I could as well - or even better - see a wolf-Pitchie to vote to guard Nerwen with the: "Obviously a good choice, or do I have to explain more?" and then killing her during the Night. That would be classical indeed but still possible.

I'm not too confident both of these cases hold but I'd be surprised if they both were wrong. But they both show a kind of lack of interest of who gets protected which I always find lupine.


On the subject of McCaber then.

I find it especially suspicious that he said we should lynch Legate (we can afford it), then backs off from it avoiding the bandwagon - and then emerges as one keeping the moral highground not being one of the lynchers. Managing to stay away from Hakonwagon - and not only staying away but claiming it openly of not liking it, would fit a wishing-to-look-good wolf's profile pretty well. The pre-explanation of the wolf-tactics on Day1 looks interesting as well as he hasn't otherwise made such good points about the general tactics or possibilities...

So there seems to be reasons to suspect him and maybe even to lynch him. The thing I don't like here is that were he a wolf he might be a bit more vocal and involved. But I'm not sure.

Does anyone remember who was that one who went it all through being a real submarine and won the whole thing? Was it McCaber or was it someone else? Xyzzy perhaps?



FYI: Greenie & Lommy are staying over at my place today so Greenie & me will not be flood-posting toDay...

[Nienna]

Ok kids really? I've already walked to an interview, had the interview, spent much more time and money in a bookstore, walked back, and made this analysis of Brinn. Where is everyone??

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Yikes, I just realised I probably have to vote in less than an hour. Deadline is in the middle of my day which is inconvenient, so I may or may not be back before then.

About this whole seer reveal thing. While on one hand it sounds like a great way to keep the seer both alive and dreaming, it's true that so many things could go wrong. Not only could there be counter-reveals, but if we are unlucky enough to have our ranger killed overNight, then we'll definitely be in trouble. I agree it's certainly something we could do further up the road, in a few Days or at least after the seer has dreamt of a wolf. But Day One seems awfully early for a seer reveal, and really just too risky.

Okay, I don't have time to say much more and I do have to vote shortly. Unfortunately, it'll have to be somewhat random; my bad since I could've done better than random if I had woken up earlier to allow more time.

Thinks seer-reveal could be awesome but it is just too early for that. Will probably random vote.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Must really go now.

Legate so far seems the most sensible and reasonable and innocentish, so I'll pick him to guard:

++Legate

As for a lynch vote...much more difficult. No one stands out as suspicious to me just now so it'll have to be complete random toDay. A lot of players still haven't posted, and hopefully they will show up, but for now I will vote for someone who is not making a contribution.

[lynch vote]++McCaber[/lynch vote]

Hopefully my participation will be better toMorrow. At least deadline will be a bit better in my new time zone..

Guards Legate because she thinks he is innocentish unlike most others who guarded him because they vaguely suspected him.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Yeesh, twice now I have left Day One early only to return to find the seer dead. Surely we learned after last game...but no? Looking back at yesterDay, that Kitanna bandwagon seems off. I actually can't really see why she looked so suspicious. Those who participated in the bandwagon deserve a closer look. I wouldn't be surprised if at least one or maybe two wolves were involved.

So either Legate is a wolf or he's been framed, as others have already stated. Lynching him, there's the risk that we could be falling into a wolf trap...but then again, I think it could be even riskier to let him live if he is a wolf. I'd hate to have a wolf in our grasp, then just let him slip through. That's sort of how we lost last game. I can't really see why the wolves wouldn't want to take advantage of having two kills. Wouldn't they want to maximize the number of deaths while they can?

Btw, did Nessa or alona show up at all yesterDay? I see they didn't vote, but I can't recall whether they even posted or not. Also, any reason why you didn't vote to guard someone, McCaber and Nilp?

I would take a look at the Kit bandwagon now, but it's late and I need to go to bed shortly. If no one has done it yet, perhaps I'll do it tomorrow if I have time.

EDIT: X-ed with Shasta and Nilp (who already seems to be doing a Kit analysis)

Reasonable about the Legate situation, thinks the Kit wagon needs to be looked at.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Looking at the Kitanna bandwagon:

Nerwen is the first to vote for her "jittery reaction to Mnemo's plan." She admits it's weak reasoning, though I think it's probably better reasoning than many others give for Day One votes.

Boro is the second voting her because her reactions were suspicious and the reasons she voted for me. I actually didn't find Kit's vote for me all too suspicious. The reasoning was weak, yes, but it seems like a typical Day One vote and I also was under the impression that maybe she was short on time. Anyway, Boro's vote doesn't stand out to me. Reasoned enough and a bit early to be called a bandwagon vote.

Inziladun is the third voter, voting Kit for her reasons behind voting me. This here looks to be a bandwagon vote and a bit suspicious to me.

Vote number four comes from Pitchwife five minutes before deadline. Doesn't state a reason in his vote post, but in his post before he talks about her behaviour being suspicious, but is still uncertain whether that is wolfish behaviour from her. If he was clueless about whether her behaviour pointed to wolvery, then why vote her? I suppose he could've preferred to see her lynched over the other options, maybe. Slightly suspicious.

wilwa is the fifth voter. Says she does it to save herself, which is understandable. Doesn't exactly point to either wolvery or innocence.

Lommy gives the sixth vote saying she doesn't see why wilwa is so suspicious. Could it be a wolf trying to save her mate? Possibly, though it's not like her vote for Kit came from nowhere since she said she'd been getting bad vibes from her all day.

The last Kit vote comes from Sally. Doesn't give a reason, though earlier she agreed with Boro that Kit "seemed off." Probably the weakest reasoning of the Kit voters. She spent the last hour and plus providing a tally but contributed little otherwise. Now why is that? Seems rather suspicious to me.

So out of the Kitanna voters, in order from most to least suspicious:

Sally
Inziladun
Pitchwife
Lommy
wilwa
Nerwen
Boromir

This analysis of the Kit voters looks good. The one wolf we know was near the top of the suspicious list.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Sorry, I missed that post...which is easy to do when you have to catch up on two and half pages from the previous Day. So you listed a bunch of scenarios for why she voted to guard Hakon if she's a wolf. But if you were so suspicious of her almost two hours before deadline, why wait until exactly deadline to vote her? I understand wanting to wait a little before immediately voting the first suspicious person, but waiting until it's almost past deadline is certainly pushing it.

And why so many tally posts? Yes, they look helpful, but you posted an awful lot of them and really we don't need a new tally every time someone votes. I think your time could've been better spent looking at other players.

Thinks Sally is posting too many tallies. That seems to have been said a lot…

Originally Posted by Brinniel

You asked who I'm voting for, Legate? Well, you'll hate to hear it, but I'll be voting you. You've made your arguments plenty, and while these arguments are well written, they don't convince me. Yeah there is the possibly of being framed, but it still seems more sensible for the wolves to make as many kills possible while they still can. Anyway, I think you're death will reveal a lot. If we lynch you and confirm you're a wolf, then we can toMorrow analyse posts to figure out who your fellows are. Not to mention, it'll prevent any double kills from ever happening. And if you so happen to be innocent as you claim, we can look back at toDay and see the reactions and attitudes of different players to help us figure out which of them are the wolves.

And I do have to go now and won't be back, so:

[lynch vote]++Legate[/lynch vote]

Note: There's only an hour left, so let's not spend the rest of the Day discussing Legate. The wolves want us distracted, so I suggest we don't let ourselves get distracted and focus the attention elsewhere at other players who could be wolves too.

I'll guard:

++Shasta

He's made few posts so far, but the ones he made do make me think him innocentish. I find Shasta is a good person to trust, so I'd like to know for sure that I can.

Votes Legate like most people. Guards Shasta because his few posts were rather innocent and he is a good person in general to trust. Notes that the village should start looking at other people so that we won’t be distracted which is what the wolves would want.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Hmm...I think the best thing to do now is to look back at everyone yesterDay. We obviously can't make much judgment on the votes themselves, but picking up some comments and behaviours players had towards Legate's guilt could help give us some clues to which of them are the wolves. That's something I'd like to do, but I don't have time now, so it must wait.

The one-kill tactic isn't the smartest plan since it does give us more opportunities to lynch, but it still leaves us with uncertainty. We can't know for sure whether the wolves chose one kill or if Nogrod is actually guilty. We obviously don't want to repeat our mistake from yesterDay, but at the same time, we can't just disregard him. We need to lynch based on suspicious behaviour and not just from the results of the Night Guard. That's how it should be.

Btw, I'm not sure how active I'll be toDay since I am in the process of finding furniture for my bedroom.

Thinks that the wolves might not have been smart not killing two people when they had the chance but now we are unsure of the people who have been guarded. She recommends using normal means of finding suspicion and to not rely on the NG.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

One thing I realised about this one-kill thing. Not only do the wolves prevent known innocents, but they are forcing us to change our strategy. If the wolves had done two kills, we would probably continue the strategy of guarding those who are suspicious to figure out their role. That means if those we suspect and choose to guard turn out innocent, the wolves lose potential lynch targets. Once those suspicious innocents are cleared, the wolves become much easier targets, especially if they are acting suspicious. But now since we can't know innocents, that strategy cannot work. So perhaps because a wolf (or more) was considered suspicious they decided to do the one-kill so that suspicious innocents who could be lynched would not be guarded and then cleared.

I should look back and see which players were attracting some suspicion in the previous Days. Right now, only wilwa and Inzil come to mind.

Good point about the wolves’ strategy. This could be insider information but it just feels like a solid theory.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Just some highlights from yesterDay...


First post of the Day. She seems a bit careful, not wanting to go completely one way or another. Perhaps waiting to see the others' reactions before taking a side.


Is the first to seem slightly certain of Legate's guilt.


Interesting catch, though it doesn't necessarily point to McCaber's guilt. His comment could've just given the wolves the idea.


I believe was the first to come up with the theory that one or the other was a wolf. Many others continued to state that theory as the Day went on.


Is the first to vote and vote for Inzil. Not sure what to think of that.


Pointing out Legate's comment about being guarded.


Seems certain of his guilt and very eager to lynch him. But is that eagerness because she really did think we were going to nab a wolf or was she a wolf eager to lynch an innocent?


The way she says this almost sounds like she's expecting him to end up innocent.


Legate pointed this out as a slip, though I'm not sure it is. It's just worded a bit strange, I think.


Interesting comment. But has he done that yet? I can't remember.


Comments on the situation, but seems to restrain from giving his own opinion on the matter.


It is strange she shares a moment of doubt not long after the theory that either she or Legate is a wolf is discussed.





Interesting. These votes look particularly bad from Inzil and Hakon. Very bandwagonish.

Good summary post.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Where did this come from? Inzil, you seem to have this habit of latching onto other people's opinions.

Wolf-on-wolf? It doesn’t seem likely.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Thoughts at this time...

Suspicious:
Inzil
wilwa
Sally

Keeping a close eye on:
McCaber
Nienna

Under the radar (and should be better looked at toMorrow):
Greenie
Boromir
Nessa
Pitchwife

Not sure:
Nilp
Hakon
Nogrod

Leaning Innocent:
Shasta
Nerwen

I left out alona since it looks like she will be modfired.

A lot of this is really based on yesterDay and before. I haven't had a chance yet to really look closely at toDay's posts and unfortunately, I won't have time to do so since I must go soon.

EDIT: Three posts in a row? Where did everyone go?

Wolf as her top suspect and innocents in her innocent category… she seems to be doing pretty well.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

How strange it is that two people just voted to guard both players I find innocent. A coincidence?

Well, I'm still voting for one of them anyway. Since Nerwen has been more useful to this village compared to Shasta who's hardly posted, I'll choose to keep her around toNight.

++Nerwen

Now who do lynch? I'm quite suspicious about Inzil too, but I'm a bit wary of this massive bandwagon against him. Has anyone else received votes? Oh yeah, me.

wilwa looks pretty bad too, but I wonder if she would act in such an obvious manner as a wolf. Hmm..

Sally still looks suspicious, but I don't think enough to vote her.

Doesn’t really want to join a bandwagon but is still suspicious of Zil.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Bandwagon or no, his behaviour is still the most suspicious to me.

[lynch vote++Inziladun[/lynch vote]

And hopefully this bandwagon won't result in the same disaster as yesterDay.

Votes Zil. She was the last vote for him. At this time it looked pretty sure that he would be lynched but there was still enough people and time left for her to be able to start a different bandwagon.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I don't really care for Pitchwife's defense in his first post toDay. It's the first thing he does at the very beginning of the Day before anyone even starts to accuse him of anything. Preparing a defense before the accusations are made can be a very wolfish thing to do.

I'm wondering how likely it is Hakon's a wolf. His strong defense for Inzil is bold and looks quite bad, but would he be so obvious were he a wolf? Though Hakon is still pretty new to WW and I don't think he's been a wolf before, so I suppose there's a chance it could've been a newbie wolf error.

She doesn’t really think that Hakon is a wolf. There is a chance but it doesn’t seem likely. Doesn’t like Pitchwife’s opening defense post.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Suspects...

Hakon is either a misguided innocent or a newbie wolf. As to which, it's still a toss-up for me. For that reason I'm not all too eager to be joining this bandwagon against him.

McCaber has been gathering some attention of late, and as I recall from Day 2, he did look a bit furry. When it came to sharing opinions on the whole Legate matter, he seemed very careful and retrained in his words like he didn't want to give too strong of an opinion one way or another.

Sally's behaviour creeped me out a bit on Day 1 and Day 2. But that creepiness has sort of faded, and lately I have been feeling a bit better about her.

I find Pitchwife's posts from the end of the Day a bit suspicious, but I'm still not sure about him.

I still think wilwa's behaviour on Day 2 was quite suspicious and I find it strange that a lot of attention and suspicion on her has been dropped recently. That alone makes me nervous as I remember that is how the wolves won last game.

Boromir keeps slipping under my radar and I can't figure out why that is.

Her suspects… pretty straight forward. Makes a good point about Wilwa suspicion and the lack of Boro.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Voting for the one who makes me most uneasy of the those I mentioned in my last post:

[lynch vote]++wilwa[/lynch vote]

We can guard someone a second time, just not consecutively right? I'm considering voting Nogrod since he seems innocent to me and quite helpful to the village.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Why are you so sure of wilwa's innocence, Sally?

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Guarding:

++Nogrod

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Why do you want to save her then?

The thing with Sally at the end of the day seems a little weird… but maybe it was just because I understood that Sally thought Hakon more suspicious than Wilwa not necessarily that she was sure of Wilwa’s innocence.

On the whole I’m leaning toward Brinn’s innocence. Her posts seem helpful and straight forward. She is having suspicions of people who do look suspicious (and in one case was a wolf). She could easily have jumped on the Hakon-wagon if she was a wolf but decided to vote for someone else. I would love to hear her suspicions of Wilwa because I can’t wrap my head around her.

Edit: x-ed with Nog. YAY!!