Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[McCaber]

Well, I'm back. And toDay has certainly been more interesting than I originally wanted. We have Legate arguing his innocence, and ... just about everyone but Legate wanting to lynch him.

Right now I'm not prepared to argue either way, but I'll stay connected and think about what this shows about the "everyone but Legate" crowd.

[Nienna]

Sorry I've had to skim the last bunch of posts but I must be off to help pick out furniture before the shops close.

++Legate - for obvious reasons

++ guard Nerwen - because she is the only one so far who I trust even a little bit

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Some list so that you have something to read toMorrow perhaps, if I am lynched.

A Little Green- not been around today much, so hard to say. I really had a bad feeling about her yesterDay, but can't say anything as for toDay
alonariel- not been around at all
Boromir88- somewhat makes me uneasy in the way how he overlookingly threw me among the Wolves. Because I know he is a sensible player normally. I would understand it if he tried to get me slip or something, innocent Boro tries baiting baddies and such, but he hasn't been trying to discuss with me, he just dumped me.
Brinniel- hard to say. Seemed okay yesterDay, toDay I was somewhat unsettled, but that was just a sort of feeling, nothing much more concrete. Like, she was a lot more "okay, whatever" than yesterDay - given that she was the one, I think, who yesterDay said first that she will guard me (?) I believe. She certainly seemed that she trusted me a lot yesterDay, but did not meddle much with the matter toDay. I would ask her about her opinion, by the way.
Hakon- 50-50. Could be either, in some way, seems innocent. By sort of gut feeling now, and also there may be the Kit thing, as noted by Nogrod. (Or both him and Nog are WWs, but that would be quite much chance accumulated to make it happen.) But can be either, really.
Inziladun- I am really letting others decide, because I have no particular idea.
McCaber- not very vocal, could be anything.
Nerwen- by first thought, I thought her innocent. If I started to think of that more after today, I could suspect her. It would be a bit like overcombinating it, but maybe not. Well whatever. Whenever she is a Wolf, she's a good one, so hard to say, really.
Nessa Telrunya- who is that? That exists?
Nienna- seems rather genuine, although a bit too eager to dump me, but then, who isn't.
Nilpaurion Felagund- reasonably seeming and okay.
Nogrod- well that's really hard. I mean, he just sounds so unreasonable and blinded by a few zealous ideas that I can't believe he's innocent. However he got better later, like that Kit thing I quoted lately. Or is it retaliation from too aggressive waters? No idea.
Pitchwife- erk. No real idea, seemed more like innocent to me for a long time though.
satansaloser2005- well, you saw our little interaction late toDay. She could be a Wolf, really. Could be.
Shastanis Althreduin- very silly to easily agree with lynching me, but again, everybody does that.
Thinlómien- probably innocent, unless I start overcombinating.
wilwarin538- probably guilty.

So some more real things?

Things that I dare to say my opinion on more than on 50, or maybe 60 or even 70%:

Lommy - innocent
Nilp - innocent
wilwa - guilty

hmm... almost 50%... nienna-innocent... it's dropping... boro guilty? hakon innocent? sally guilty? mccaber innocent? We are entering a realm of total speculation now. No more to tell. (And I really didn't forget anybody, I can't make as unambiguous or definite judgement on the rest.)

EDIT: x-ed with wilwa

[Pitchwife]

Time to look at some other people, starting with my fellow Kit voters.
Sally - has been very active and helpful yesterDay and toDay, so I fail to see how her retiring to do tallies for the last hour makes her suspicious (actually, it makes me wonder about Brinn and Nog suspecting her for such a frail reason).
Inzil - if I remember correctly from my other games with him, he behaved somewhat inscrutably both as a wolf and an innocent. I'd like to hear a little more from him, as most of his posts have been rather shortish.
Boro - looks good, all in all.
Nerwen - looks really good.
wilwa - has made some outstanding contributions, especially in her latest post; rather unsuspicious.
Lommy - now that's a hard one. I don't really know what to make of her, and her attempts to defend Legate (unless they have to do with life outside the village) don't sit right with me. But is it really probable she and Legs are wolves together?

I find it hard to find fault with anybody's given reasons for their vote (except, possibly, Lommy's - bad vibes is just a little too vague).
As for my own reasons, if anybody hasn't got it yet: I stated I found Kit suspicious based on the points against her made by Boro and Nerwen, at a time when she had only one vote. I certainly wasn't 100 % (or even 80 %) convinced of her guilt, but I suspected nobody else enough to vote for. I decided to vote late and wait if a better option would develop, but 5 minutes to DL there was none that I found more convincing. I had to vote someone (well, technically I might have abstained or done a self-vote, but what would have been the point?), so I stuck with my first suspicion - it wasn't good, but the best I could do at the time.

[Nogrod]

It is interesting indeed how the lists of Legate and Wilwa bring forwards two different pictures of our overall situation... I mean just as I was ready to throw away some of the jammed intterrelations concerning both of them, their posts just rekindled them... Hmm...

What Legate says:

Inziladun- I am really letting others decide, because I have no particular idea.
McCaber- not very vocal, could be anything.
wilwarin538- probably guilty.

And what Wilwa says:

Suspicious
Legate: I suppose suspicious is technically the wrong word for him, it's more that he is a logical choice and that his death could answer some questions and clear up a few things (hopefully)
McCaber: mainly cause his vote yesterday bugged me, I wouldn't vote for him purely on this, I'm just keeping an eye out for him
Zil: his vote, and over all badness vibe coming from him, again will keep an eye out, and will concentrate a bit more on him tomorrow if I'm around

They would be really daring to both be wolves - with possibly the other two involved - and I don't think one has made a jackpot as being innocent. But that makes one think anyway...

EDIT X'd from Brinn onwards... interesting co-incidence in thinking Legate...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Pitchie

Sally - has been very active and helpful yesterDay and toDay, so I fail to see how her retiring to do tallies for the last hour makes her suspicious (actually, it makes me wonder about Brinn and Nog suspecting her for such a frail reason).

A long story but made short it's something like the following: when a wolf is a around the DL and has no problem (the voting is going fine from her perspective) they kind of forget that if they were innocents they could not be that sure and would be bothered about how the voting goes. So just hanging around, posting either nonsense or tallies or whatever without trying to affect the voting or begging others to tell what they are going to do - or telling others what they have in mind to get a response - looks darn suspicious. I mean that's the only steady way of catching werewolves (I've spotted quite a few for just that). And somehow the wolves just don't seem to learn it (well some do but quite a many seemingly do not). And it is understandable: with the final heat they feel secure and get relaxed, and if they feel no pressure they decide to be careful rather than getting involved as any involvement might make them look bad following the outcome of the voting they can't know beforehand.

I mean: if you have no stake in it why to offer your neck to be cut the next Day?

[wilwarin538]

The thing with Sally is that she always waits to the last second to vote, at least from what I can remember. So I don't know really how suspicious that makes her, it doesn't really to me anyway. I think it's just something she automatically does in order to always give, what she thinks is, a good vote. Cause even when someone is innocent they may still do things in order to not look suspicious.

x'ed with Pitch

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

The thing with Sally is that she always waits to the last second to vote, at least from what I can remember. So I don't know really how suspicious that makes her, it doesn't really to me anyway.

It's not whether one votes at the last minute or earlier. It's what you do before you vote when in a tight situation... Are you concerned or do you just sit back and relax looking at others trying to figure out the outcome...

[McCaber]

Well, I am forced away beyond my control. A hurried vote to guard

++ Nogrod

mostly because he's been making a lot of sense, and I'd rather see him alive.

I cannot in good conscience vote Legate after I made a point yesterDay on what to do in this exact circumstance. So this right now is more of a look of suspicion than anything else:

++ Inziladun

[Boromir88]

A quick question about the NG votes, if one wolf goes, would one of the other 3 try to attract the NG vote or not? Something for us to mull over perhaps.

Boromir88- somewhat makes me uneasy in the way how he overlookingly threw me among the Wolves. Because I know he is a sensible player normally. I would understand it if he tried to get me slip or something, innocent Boro tries baiting baddies and such, but he hasn't been trying to discuss with me, he just dumped me.~Legate

I didn't know you wanted to tango, or I may have been more willing. My apologies. Although, I may seem a bit off from my normal combativeness, that is mostly though due to other things. Like not originally intending to play in a game after modding one and being a bit exhausted this week.

[Nessa Telrunya]

My dear people, I sincerely apologize for my prolonged absence! A commission for quite the intricate dress called upon my time.

It seems Legate is widely suspected. It's a valid point, that this is indeed a death that would shed some much needed light.

++Legate


And for my guard vote, ++Nogrod, because I think the village could use his wit and common sense.

[Nogrod]

Well, Legate looks like getting the rope and I do agree he's our best choice even if he made a spirited fight.

If for some reason he turns out innocent I'd say we should look at Wilwa quite closely.

McCaber and and Inziladun will be interesting to read after either of the two is dead and revealed.

I'm somewhat totally undecided with Boro and Lommy: at times they look like the voices of wisdom and on others like creepy wolves. I wouldn't like to see either of them lynched soon but would look at them quite closely as they're both able to pull an act.

With Nerwen I'm the most suspicious on the consensus around that she's innocent. I actually suspected her a bit on Day1 but toDay she has been very reasonable. Like I felt yeaterDay about Mnemo; she's almost too reasonable to be true. So I'm not actually suspecting her but am worried about the consensus eg. betting heavily there being wolves within her guarding-votes. That would be an easy place to meddle in.

Sally looks bad but then she looks like Sally as well. I'm really torn with her. She could be a wolf going against her "already lost" mate - which would be understandable - well even something Legate would have insisted as the situation dawned on them the last Night. But then again I might be totally wrong with her, and Legate to be sure.

EDIT: X'd with a host... well, since my last one.

[wilwarin538]

Alright. Well I'll still be aroud til the DL but I'm just gonna do this now to avoid the rush:

++ Guard Nogrod

This is gonna be the longest 15 minutes of my life....

[Inziladun]

The Legate thing still looks too pat somehow, though admittedly it would be unreasonable to expect people to give him a pass. But it appears he'll be getting the rope regardless of anything I do. So...

++Legate

and

++Guard Nogrod

for Cab's reasons.

[wilwarin538]

a list, some the same from yesterDay, some totally changed:

Suspicious
Zil: his voting so far, all seems like he's trying to sound helpful and blend in, but it just doesn't seem right, may vote him
Boro: I was very sure of him until today, what Pitch said just made me curious so I read through his posts more thoroughly. He officially makes me very uneasy, and he just looks sneaky to me all of a sudden. Don't really have anything concrete that he's done badly, there's just something wrong there. Uneasy...might vote him, have to wait and see
McCaber: still seems off, probably won't vote for him, but I'm still watching him

Innocentish
Nerwen: nothing bad standing out for me here, she seems very logical, might vote to guard her
Nienna: fine with
Sally: seems goodish, not crazy confident about her, but I'm leaning more innocent
Shasta: seems good
Brinn: very comfortable with her, might vote to guard her
Hakon: he seems to be putting in more of an effort, which I appreciate
Pitch: I've gone from being confident to unsure to back to pretty good with

Unsure
Greenie: still under my radar, don't really know how that's happened, I may look closer at her at some point if I have the time
Alona: no posts yet, probably going to be modfired so I won't worry about her too much
Nessa: only the one post from her I believe, so not really anything
Nilp: makes me a bit weary, but he's helpful and amusing, so I don't really know
Nogrod: I don't find anything he's done suspicious, but just because of the single Night kill he's going into this category for a while

So that's that. I'll only be around randomly for the next 3ish hours, my vote will come then since I have to go to work about 30 minutes before the DL.

[Pitchwife]

DL approaching, and I don't want to vote in a hurry again. So:
++Legate
Sorry if you're innocent, but you'll understand we have to find out. (And I do sincerely hope you're not gifted!)

And
++Guard Nogrod
Much as I appreciate his contributions (as noted yesterDay), he doesn't quite seem his usual self, so better err on the side of caution.

EDIT: x-ed with Nog; I'm not quite convinced, but I see your point.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

(And I do sincerely hope you're not gifted!)

I think a gifted Legate would have revealed a long time ago, since it was fairly clear most people would vote him. I admit he could be innocent, but I seriously doubt he's gifted and hasn't said anything.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I think a gifted Legate would have revealed a long time ago, since it was fairly clear most people would vote him. I admit he could be innocent, but I seriously doubt he's gifted and hasn't said anything.

Unless I am a Hunter *boo boo*

As for guard:

++Nilp

I guess I have still the retraction anyway, and if I survive, I won't probably regret that much using it already now... but I will still stay with the vote for a while yet.

EDIT: x-ed suddenly with a bunch of votes