Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[wilwarin538]

So didn't actually have to go anywhere quite yet (had my times wrong by a bit), so here are all of our Seer's posts, and my personal commentary, aswell as some boldings I've made in the quotes:

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I suppose I need to abandon my hermit lifestyle for a while. *sigh*

(Mnemo quote was here, about her plan)

This seems like an ok idea, but eventually, probably sooner than later, the wolves can manipulate this. How do you plan to organize such an undertaking?

Edit: Eonwe clarified the rules...

Didn't seem too comfortable with the idea, but seemed willing to discuss it.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

This may seem like a good idea, but think about the innocents who will undoubtedly be put on the line. If the seer reveals him/herself and then reveals his/her dreams every day innocents will be revealed to the village, making them easy targets for wolves at Night.

And what if something happens to the ranger early on? Then we have the seer for two days and then it's curtains. If that happens early on, the village will have to go on without the aid of the seer's dreams. Plus by that point a few innocents will be vulnerable.

I understand her concerns here, but don't really agree with them, but from a Seer's perspective I can see that this would make sense. No hints to a dream here though.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I see the topic of discussion remains on Mnemo and Wilwa's conversation regarding the seer revealing. That's not surprising. Though I had hoped for a little more discussion, maybe a big red flag pointing to one of the villagers, declaring him/her "WOLF" in big letters.

However, that hasn't happened and I need to vote in the next twenty minutes. I get off work right at the deadline and there is no guarantee I can make it home at lunch to contribute.

I'm going back to ponder, but I'm thinking the chances of a random vote today are likely.

Her "big red flag" comment here now really stands out to me. I think this pretty much tells us she had not dreamt of a wolf, since she was hoping someone would be "declared" a wolf, and then said it has not happened. This would also make sense since she was against "the plan", if she had found out a wolf she probably would have agreed to it a bit more.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I went back and read Mnemo and Wilwa's conversation (and all posts that responded early on to it). Since this is the highlight right now it seems like a logical place to look for baddies. However, time is short for me so I'll make a few points quick and come home on my lunch break to finish any thoughts.


Mnemo is quick to declare this route this easiest, life in WW is never easy though. It doesn't feel wolfish, not so early, but that doesn't absolve Mnemo.
In answering my query on the idea Mnemo states that the seer has the choice to reveal. Another innocent move, but makes me wonder about Mnemo. However, nothing Mnemo has said screams wolf to me. I want to watch Mnemo over the next few days, but I have a feeling a wolf wolf wouldn't make a suggestion for a reveal so early, but would rather encourage the idea and thrive on any and all confusion.

I will return in a few hours to make a quick statement about Wilwa's role with Mnemo's suggestion and then a vote.

See here how she kinda goes back and forth between finding her suspicious and then not? Could be that she didn't want to blatanly say she was innocent, but then also didn't want her to look too suspicious. I think she may have wanted to bring forward all reasons why someone may find Mnemo suspicious, and then state a defense for it, perhaps to sway people away from voting her. If Mnemo wasn't dead and Kit still was I would have read this and probably thought Mnemo innocent. That is all of course just my own speculation.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I don't have the time toDay to read everything I've missed. But my guard vote won't be totally random. I was going to vote to guard Mnemo, but since she stirred up a lot of discussion she doesn't seem a likely Night 2 kill. Rather I'd like to guard one of those who haven't spoken yet. These sorts are usually kills early on because they leave no trail for the villagers. So that leaves Hakon and alonariel as the only two who have yet to say anything.

++Guard Hakon

alonariel gave a reason for being absent, but Hakon has said nothing.

This is where people started finding her suspicious. It was a very odd move. The fact that she was thinking of guarding Mnemo sort of, at least to me, strengthens what I said about the previous quote.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I have about seven minutes to get back to work.

I've been mulling over the thread, trying to find something/someone who jumps out.

Mnemo and Wilwa both jumped out initially, but neither one feels particularly wicked. Of other, more vocal players, no one has said anything of note that I find over whelming suspicious. The only things I've seen that worried me are Mnemo's vote for Wilwa, but I think that's probably a time constraint thing, and then there's Brinn's vote for McCaber. She stated her vote would be somewhat random, but it surprises me she would pick someone who hadn't yet posted.

But I'm down to the wire and have to vote now. I will be more active on Day 2 because work doesn't fall on the deadline that day.

++Brinn

Kinda random, I don't care that she voted randomly for McCaber. That's something I would do, but she gave a reason that "he wasn't contributing" and that doesn't seem right to me. Granted my own reasons for voting Brinn aren't much better. However, I am at a loss for a real suspect.

Despite the suspiciousness of Mnemo's vote, she doesn't want to vote for her, and instead votes for someone with a not-quite-as-suspicious vote.


So there they are, with my thoughts. I feel that Mnemo was the most likely dream choice, but of course I could be wrong. She seems to be the only one she really mentions a lot.

Have to head out for real now, will be back in about 45 minutes or less with all of the duck's posts.

EDIT: Xposted with Boro, and removed highlight from Kit's vote

[wilwarin538]

Here they are. I left out a few of the random banter ones from the beginning. But I'm pretty sure I got all the others, don't think I missed any. No commentary here from me, just wanted to make those available. I might come back to her though, if I have the time.

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

Right.

The easiest way I can see this going forward is if the Seer comes out so that we can vote to guard him/her each night. That way we'll get a virtually limitless supply of dreams so that we can track these foul beasts down and snuff them out.

Thank you for posting before me, Boro; people who post first with cunning plans are startling Day 1 lynch targets and I'd hate to put myself on the chopping block so early.

Not that anyone would want to lynch a face like this...

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

Darn.

Take away all my fun from me, will you?

Unless we wanted to coordinate saves with the Ranger, which really is not a half bad idea when you think about it...

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

It's all up to the Seer and whether s/he wants to come out at this point.

Of course, likely a wolf has already thought of this and would reveal first and/or counterreveal. I don't know how we'd proceed then, unless we wanted to protect both (Ranger one and the village the other, then alternate).

But IF there were a way of knowing the Seer is real, then all we need is a simple majority of ++Guard votes. The wolves would probably be too willing to go along at this point. Next night everyone would vote according to his/her conscience and the Ranger would make the save.

My point is that normally when new and/or weird rules are introduced into the mix the wolves profit from the confusion that results.

But I think in this situation we've been handed a genuine boon, if we can learn how to use it properly.

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

I did not say that the Seer should reveal his/her dreams each Day. That would be the equivalent of sending the Wolves a kill list. So, not unless we nab a wolf. In the meantime, though, if we have a protected Seer we do know that we will be getting dreams to our advantage, and if the Ranger dies then the Seer can reveal all of his/her dreams to the village. Hopefully at that point (depending on dream picks vs. kill picks) we would have enough Known Innocents to keep the wolves busy killing them off while we can focus on the unknowns.

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

Okay, so...

First of all, what about the revealish plan is cheap? It follows the rules! The village should be more than glad to take all rules that give it an advantage and use them!

Second: Lommy, my dear, you are commenting on said plan. So don't complain about the fact that people are still talking about it. Fact is, people are filtering into this village one by one today and they may have thoughts about the matter that haven't been brought up yet.

I'm going to stir the pot a little bit more and suggest to you, Boro, that it is actually more important to start protecting Gifteds now rather than after the Wolves are down to only one kill, because the chances of someone whose special powers may mean the difference between survival and annihilation getting killed is especially high when there are two kills in place.

It looks as if (as I rather expected) no one wants to do this toDay, which is rather understandable. Since I will be busy for the last five hours of the Day I shall have to look over the thread thus far and cast my votes soonish.

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

Nog, I like your style (i.e., keep 'em both alive).

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

Silly, the seer would not be handing us the game. Unless s/he caught a wolf we would still be left to our own consciences when voting, and the Ranger would not last forever under this plan. All it does is give the village a tactical advantage.

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

Currently debating whether to guard Boro, Legate, or Nog. They're all reasonable people, though they're heckawolves, plus they make the day more interesting. I'd hate to lose any of them Night One, until I have more information (since information they will leave) to go off of.

I'm already 90% sure of my lynch pick.

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

Nice catch!

Wish I had time to discuss it more. Since I don't,

++Guard Boro

and

++wilwarin538

Nothing personal, m'dear; just a crack theory I have right now...

Hmm, curious what her "crack theory" was. Really don't like it when people are so cryptic. I almost prefer no reasoning over crypticness.

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

Depends on how much information the mod gives us. If we aren't told whether fewer kills than we expected are due to a Ranger save or due to a lack of wolvish power, then it wouldn't be that helpful to us.

[Inziladun]

Well, interesting turns of events, to say the least. They failed to guard you, Boro, so I trust you didn't have a hand in poor Mnemo's death!

I regret being part of Kitanna's, but her vote and guard struck me as wrong, and no one else was screaming for my vote.
I haven't seen anything much of note in Kit's words, beyond what Wilwa noted about the 'red flag' comment.
Nor Mnemo's. The choice of her as a target seems rather random. I would be curious as to the details of her 'crack theory' about Wilwa though.
Nerwen, if you would be so kind, a song might cheer our hearts.
What to do with the Legate?

*takes a drink of stock ale*

[Nienna]

The Voting:

Lynch:
Nilp--> Nilp – I believe this is fairly typical.
Mnemo--> Wilwa – a theory that I’m sad we will now never know
Brinn--> McCaber – because he hadn’t posted and she didn’t find anyone suspicious
Nerwen--> Kit – thinks she was jittery about the seer reveal plan (which is in hindsight understandable) but there was something that didn’t sit right with her. She acknowledges that she doesn’t really have a proper case against Kit but says she doesn’t have a proper case against anyone. I’m leaning innocent for her at the moment.
Shasta--> Lommy – not sure why… he mentioned that he thought she looked odd earlier and that he had a busy day.
Kit--> Brinn – doesn’t like that she voted for McCaber because he wasn’t participating. She understands random votes but not the voting for someone who isn’t participating. I don’t think that Brinn was the dream.
Boro--> Kit – he thought that her reactions to Mnemo’s plan were suspicious as well as her lynch-vote for Brinn. He had been suspicious of Kit for a while… I’m leaning slightly closer to innocent than guilty for him.
Zil--> Kit – he doesn’t like her vote for Brinn. This seems like a wolf jumping on a bandwagon to me.
Greenie--> Nog – she doesn’t like how he went after Lommy and his post where he ends with “So…” (quoted in her 95). She believes that it looks really evil and she finds him more suspicious than she has ever found anyone on Day One before. Interesting.
McCaber--> Wilwa – “for silly discussion on the previous pages that could have an adverse effect to the village's safety”
Hakon--> Legate – he feels “off”
Pitchwife--> Kit – for lack of something better…he wavered between suspecting her and not suspecting her
Legate--> Wilwa – to give Kit some lynch competition it would seem. This looks innocent.[/sarcasm]
Nienna--> Zil
Wilwa--> Kit – doesn’t like voting without suspicion but wants to save herself
Nog--> Greenie – she is either too trigger happy or evil for voting for him and too much rhetorics.
Lommy--> Kit – she isn’t sure why everyone is suspicious of Wilwa
Sally--> Kit – she mentions that she thinks Kit a bit suspicious but it might be too easy

Guard:
Mnemo--> Boro – no real reason given except that she grouped him with Legate and Nog as reasonable people who are “heckawolves” and interesting to keep around. So this sounds like she guarded Boro because he could be innocent or guilty and she likes having him around.
Brinn--> Legate – she believes him innocentish, sensible, and reasonable.
Sally--> Mnemo – she believes her to be innocent and would be a good person to have on her side because she was coming up with new theories (the seer thing)
Nerwen--> Legate – because he is a likely target if innocent and he has been worrying her a little so he was a good choice in her mind no matter how you look at it
Kit--> Hakon – hasn’t posted yet so would be an easy no-trail kill. I don’t believe he was her dream though.
Shasta--> Legate – he (along with Lommy) looked odd.
Boro--> Nienna – he mentioned earlier that I have good instincts
Zil--> Boro – he wants to keep Boro around but he doesn’t want grief if he (Zil) is wrong about him (Boro). Yep Zil is still flashing wolf at me.
Nog--> Legate – to find out whether he is a wolf or not (I believe)
Greenie--> Nienna
Nienna--> Mnemo
Hakon--> Boro – he feels “innocent”
Pitchwife--> Boro – no reason (unless this is also for lack of something better)
Lommy--> Legate – to know his role … If Legate is a wolf this would seem to point toward Lommy’s innocence
Legate--> Lommy – interestingly he doesn’t try to guard someone with more votes so as to maybe not be guarded so we don’t find out he is furry.
Wilwa--> Legate (not bolded…?... does this mean it doesn’t count?)

[wilwarin538]

Another list, just cause they are crazy fun:

Suspicious
Legate: he made sense for the most part yesterDay, though there were inconsistencies here and there. The fact that there was only one kill last Night does point towards him, I doubt the wolves would have given up a second kill purely to set him up, doesn't seem at all worth it for them to do that. Pretty sure I'm gonna vote him.
McCaber: not too too much from him yesterDay, but his vote just bugs me, doubt I'll vote him though, but I'm watching him
Lommy: she seemed very flip-floppy (as Nog put it), the fact that she was quick to disregard both Mnemo's plan and Pitch's suggestion as being "unfair" really bugs me, since they both follow the rules perfectly, and therefore are completely fair

Innocentish, for now
Boro: seems honest and logical, haven't seen anything that I don't like, might vote to guard him
Nerwen: nothing bad standing out for me here, she seems very logical, I understand why she got some guard votes yesterDay
Nienna: not seeing anything badish here
Nogrod: really trusting him, I like his logic and agree with him for the most part, I appreciate that he didn't totally throw out Mnemo's idea yesterDay, pretty sure I'm gonna vote to guard him
Pitchwife: seems fine
Sally: seems good
Shasta: seems good

Unsure, for now anyway
Greenie: didn't really stand out for me when I was reading back through, so don't have an opinion either way
Alona: no posts yet
Brinn: see Greenie
Hakon: nothing but "gut feelings" from him, so really there's not much to say
Inziladun: see Greenie and Brinn
Nessa: nothing from her yet
Nilp: is Nilp, "Confussion" is his middle name I'm sure

So there we are. Gonna go sleep now. Hope to see lots when I get up!

Xposted with Nilp, Inzil and Nienna

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Illustrious Legate and the one-kill NIGHT?

[Nienna]

It may, in fact, be too easy but I don't know if I'm willing to risk letting a wolf slip by with these odds and the wolves being able to kill two people at night. We can either lynch Legate who was heavily suspected yesterDay anyway or we can lynch someone else who has higher odds of being innocent. If we lynch Legate and find out that he is innocent then we know the wolves are messing with us and with their ability to kill two people per night.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

If they had killed two last NIGHT, we would have had two leads to follow, plus Legate's innocence would have been proven.

The single kill is shocking, yes, but not without merit for them.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Then again, I'm not able to make much out of our single *chortles* lead. Except that Mnemo was smart enough to come up with that plan. But she wasn't exactly quiet, was she? She polarised the village along two lines: those in favour, and those opposing. (Plus the usual slackers, but they're always there, so they don't count. )

Then again, nobody voted for her, nobody suspected her.

[Nerwen]

*strums lute in minor key*

Ai! Well, that was a bad start. I feel partly responsible, too... It's yet another example of how hard it is to distinguish between wolfish and gifted-ish behaviour.

At the risk of sticking my head in a noose– I do think we need to look at the Kit voters. Very unlikely there wasn't a wolf involved.

Originally Posted by Nienna

It may, in fact, be too easy but I don't know if I'm willing to risk letting a wolf slip by with these odds and the wolves being able to kill two people at night. We can either lynch Legate who was heavily suspected yesterDay anyway or we can lynch someone else who has higher odds of being innocent. If we lynch Legate and find out that he is innocent then we know the wolves are messing with us and with their ability to kill two people per night.

Well, I found him a trifle off yesterDay myself– but what about your own point here?–

Originally Posted by Nienna

Legate--> Lommy – interestingly he doesn’t try to guard someone with more votes so as to maybe not be guarded so we don’t find out he is furry.

I agree, though, that it does the wolves no good whatever to miss a kill in order to frame an innocent– unless one of the pack was in danger. If Legate's not a wolf, Wilwa might well be.

EDIT:X'd with The Fool.

[Nerwen]

Of course, if Boro– the runner-up in the Guard voting– were a wolf, I suppose a Legwolf wouldn't have voted him.

EDIT:spelling.

[McCaber]

Well so far I don't have any more brilliant insights. Although for what it's worth I think we have time for a Legate lynch toDay, and be ready to sort things out later.

But much of my thought process is pending on what happens toDay yet.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I have just skimmed throught toDay as I don't have that much time, just a few notes.

First, of course the Wolves are framing us, and I would apply on the village to say that lynching me would really be stupid. If that goes on, you can always lynch me later (at most when you don't have any other people and it's some Day Fifty), but this frame-up is so transparent once it's been done. Look at it from the Wolves' point of view, if they had the incredible luck of getting rid of a Seer, and they can still have two kills per every Night, I don't see that it would be too much of a pain for them to leave out one kill. (And especially if they can easily lynch one innocent on this Day by accusing him like this.)

Right now I have a very bad feeling about wilwa, partially also about sally and also about Hakon, who just pops out and says to lynch me yesterday, and then pops out and says today:

Either my gut feeling about Legate being a wolf was right or the wolves are trying to trick us. I hope it is that Legate is just a wolf.

Which just stinks.

Okay, had to go now, will be back later during the Day. You can line up with questions on me meanwhile, if you have any, but it'll be in some eight hours from now at first when I can answer.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Lynch tally with preliminary Kitanna-lysis

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead bolded.)

+3:29 Nilp – Nilp (Nilp – 1)
+18:19 Mnemo – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1)
+18:50 Brinn – McCaber (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1)
+20:22 Nerwen – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1)
+21:53 Shasta – Lommy (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1, Lommy – 1)
+22:09 Kitanna – Brinn (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)
+22:32 Boro – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 2, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)

Tie breaker! Boro needs closer inspection, but for the moment I consider him an 'I dunno what he is.'

+22:50 Zil – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)

Worrying bandwaggon-style vote.

+23:00 Greenie – Nogrod (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1)
+23:12 McCaber – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1)
+23:43 Hakon – Legate (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)
+23:55 Pitchie – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)

Pitchie has been much helpful during the DAY's discussion; therefore I am inclined to think him 'clueless' innocent.

+23:57 Legate – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)
+23:57 Nienna – Zil (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1)
+23:59 wilwa – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 5, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1)

wilwa was in second place for most of the last hour. She said that her vote was to try to save herself. If she is a Wolf I would look more closely at Lommy and Sally (see below).

-0:00 Nogrod – Greenie (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 5, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)

Not a Kitanna vote, but . . . Throwaway much? Last-minute Wolf-on-Wolf? (If I remember right it's also somewhat standard Nog to vote 'with principles.') An innocentish 'I don't know what he is', due to some good stuff said during the DAY.

-0:00 Lommy – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 6, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)
-0:00 Sally – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 7, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)

Doom, gloom, boom. The two lasses created a huge gap between wilwa and Kitanna during the very last minute, so . . . see above.

No vote: alonariel, Nessa

Lunch, Guard vote list, and more analysis. In that order.

[Brinniel]

Yeesh, twice now I have left Day One early only to return to find the seer dead. Surely we learned after last game...but no? Looking back at yesterDay, that Kitanna bandwagon seems off. I actually can't really see why she looked so suspicious. Those who participated in the bandwagon deserve a closer look. I wouldn't be surprised if at least one or maybe two wolves were involved.

So either Legate is a wolf or he's been framed, as others have already stated. Lynching him, there's the risk that we could be falling into a wolf trap...but then again, I think it could be even riskier to let him live if he is a wolf. I'd hate to have a wolf in our grasp, then just let him slip through. That's sort of how we lost last game. I can't really see why the wolves wouldn't want to take advantage of having two kills. Wouldn't they want to maximize the number of deaths while they can?

Btw, did Nessa or alona show up at all yesterDay? I see they didn't vote, but I can't recall whether they even posted or not. Also, any reason why you didn't vote to guard someone, McCaber and Nilp?

I would take a look at the Kit bandwagon now, but it's late and I need to go to bed shortly. If no one has done it yet, perhaps I'll do it tomorrow if I have time.

EDIT: X-ed with Shasta and Nilp (who already seems to be doing a Kit analysis)

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Too easy?

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Too easy?

What's too easy dearie???

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Too easy?

You say it looks easy, I think it looks too clean. Pitch brings up the niche in the rules, Legate and McCaber yesterday say the Night Guard could be used to frame an innocent. Now Legate is spiritly arguing he is being framed.

I will agree with Inzil that it's been an admirable defense, but that doesn't take away from the fact that the "framing defense" is one of the weakest. Think you're that important to the wolves, eh?

I remember Mac in Brinn's last game after claiming (successfully) to be the Ranger, but still not dying that night passionately, and in some ways convincingly, argued that he was being set up as an easy lynch. Still didn't take away from the fact that it was a bogus defense because if he wasn't a wolf and declared he was the Ranger, the wolves would have killed him, but they didn't, ergo Mac had to be one of the wolves.

Now Legate is arguing he is being framed as an easy lynch, after setting up for the apparently "solid" defense the previous day. I say apparently solid, because shouting a "wolf set up conspiracy against me" is in fact...weak and the only reason Legate would use such a weak defense is because it's the only one he's got left after one wolf kill last night.

And now to other things

[Nienna]

A list:

Evil:
Legate
Zil

Leaning Evil:
Sally
Nilp

Leaning Innocent:
Brinn
Boro
Shasta
Nog

Innocent:
Nerwen

No idea/haven’t posted:
Everyone else

[satansaloser2005]

Very interesting example, Boro. As I remember it, you've experience as claiming the ranger as well, haven't you?



Anyway, let's just say that if Legate does turn out to be innocent I'm going to feel awful. I think it would be stupid of us to let a Leg-Wolf get away so easily though.


What are you all thinking about guard-wise? I actually have a feeling about Brinn, but I'm not sure. I'd almost rather try to guard the fourth wolf (if in fact it isn't Legate) but we won't know until Sundown if he's furry so we can't make those sort of connections until toMorrow.


EDIT: x'd with Nienna. Aha, that was the other person I thought might be a likely Night kill. Again, just a hunch.

[satansaloser2005]

Heh. Watch, I have some sort of mad power in that, instead of saving someone, my guard vote condemns that person. I mean as far as I know I'm an ordo, but Steve could be up to anything. I'm rather afraid now.

[Boromir88]

Very interesting example, Boro. As I remember it, you've experience as claiming the ranger as well, haven't you?~sally

I've got experience at claiming lots of things.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

A note...

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Anyway, let's just say that if Legate does turn out to be innocent I'm going to feel awful. I think it would be stupid of us to let a Leg-Wolf get away so easily though.


What are you all thinking about guard-wise? I actually have a feeling about Brinn, but I'm not sure. I'd almost rather try to guard the fourth wolf (if in fact it isn't Legate) but we won't know until Sundown if he's furry so we can't make those sort of connections until toMorrow.

=> A SLIP!!!!????

She corrected it, but she wrote it nevertheless. "I'd almost rather try to guard the fourth wolf (if in fact it isn't Legate)". Well, Freudian slip? You know that you SHOULD write that you are not certain if I am a Wolf or not, because it's not known yet, but you write it as if assuming that I am actually NOT! As if assuming that after dusk it will became known that there are still four of them! Why???

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Hakon

Eönwë said that if it was a ranger save it would be clear in the narration.

I think he meant the last Night of the game, dear, not necessarily last Night.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

It could have been hard to kill me later, like I said in some of my first posts this afternoon (I think it was my first after I returned), because the Ranger and the NG could take switches in guarding me, if I was a known innocent and the village decided that I am valuable enough.

And if I were the Ranger, I would have probably said so by now.

Heh. I was kidding about the ranger thing, of course; that would be rotten luck though. And fair enough, but if the ranger is forced out, what then? (I'm hoping it won't happen, but if the ranger is out....well, no offense dear, but if you're innocent you're dispensible compared to them.)

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

=> A SLIP!!!!????

She corrected it, but she wrote it nevertheless. "I'd almost rather try to guard the fourth wolf (if in fact it isn't Legate)". Well, Freudian slip? You know that you SHOULD write that you are not certain if I am a Wolf or not, because it's not known yet, but you write it as if assuming that I am actually NOT! As if assuming that after dusk it will became known that there are still four of them! Why???

Nice try, lovely, but no. I'm just leaving in the possibility that you may not be a wolf and thus we'll have to worry about the real fourth baddie. You know, you really do want to twist my words, don't you? Nassssty boy....


EDIT: x'd with Boro and Lommie

[satansaloser2005]

Legate, think of it this way. If you are innocent and we lynch you toDay, you'll help us figure out exactly how gutsy these wolves are (as in, they wasted a kill just to frame you). Personally I would be upset at being lynched as an ordo (as I'm sure most of us would be) but if it helped the village figure out the plans of the wolves I wouldn't argue so much. I understand you defending yourself but it seems off to me. If you're dying toDay and you're an innocent leave something more for the village than just self-defense.

Of course, if you're a wolf we'll dance over your grave and giggle like mad. Just in case you didn't see that one coming already.

[Hakon]

I have to go now. I will be back by deadline. Before I go I want to put in my lynch vote.

++Legate

I also want to say that I think Alona is lurking. I have nothing to back up this thought or anything that makes it seem true. It is just something that I thought of and I think that is the case. My guess is she will pop up before deadline and make her vote.

Pitchwife, you suggest guarding Legate again and to me it makes it sound like you want him to live. If Legate turns out to be a wolf it suggests that you are also a wolf.

[Eönwë]

After commenting on the sorrowful loss of their Seer, the people of Upper Downsbury quickly turned their thoughts towards Legate.

First Sally commented, saying, "Either Legate's a wolf or it's a wolf trick, but I don't think it's likely that the wolves would give up that extra lynch."

Then Hakon said, "I've always thought it was Legate, I hope he is."

Nienna agreed, starting a massive bandwagon by saying, "I think it's worth it- lynching Legate, I mean."

Soon it seemed that everyone was willing to accept that it was not a wolf trick, and that Legate was, in fact, a wolf, which had lead to there only being one killing during the Night.

The Fool, Nilpaurion, who always spoke his mind, had something different to say. "Isn't it too easy? Don't you think that the wolves are tricking us?"

And Shasta went into denial about killing the Seer, realising that villages always killed their seers early, before they could be of much use.

Legate appeared, and appeared to be defending himself quite well against the accusations, but they kept coming and people ignored his replies. "Don't you realise that you're being used by the wolves?" he said. "Can't you see that they're going to take control. Don't do what they want you to do. And at least if you're going to kill me today, please talk about whoever else you think is evil, otherwise you've wasted the day, just like they wanted you to!"

Nerwen fought back, but it didn't matter. Even though they were thinking about what he was saying, the people still wanted to kill Legate.

The people were shouting, "He's a wolf! He's a wolf" and brought him to Eönwë

"Can we kill him, please?" someone shouted.

Eönwë paused for a moment. Now, what makes you think he's a wolf?"

"He looks like one." was the general clamouring voice of the crowd.

Legate, who was wearing a grey fur coat and fake teeth, came forwards. "I'm not a wolf," he said.

"But you are dressed as one," replied Eönwë.

"I don't look like this. They put these on me," Legate said, and took them off.

"Well?" said Eönwë, raising an eyebrow inquisitively at the crowd.

"Well," said Pitchwife, "we did do the teeth."

"The teeth?" the mayor inquired.

"And the coat," he admitted. "But he's a wolf!"

"Kill him! Kill him!" cried the crowd in a frenzy of bloodlust.

"Did you dress him up like that?" asked the mayor.

"No! No! No... Yes... Yes..." the crowd eventually admitted.

"Has he actually done anything to show he's a wolf?" asked Eönwë.

"He bit me!" exclaimed Nogrod.

"Really?" asked Eönwë.

"Well... I got better," he replied.

"Kill him anyway!" shouted Brinniel, soon to be echoed by the rest of the assembled lynch mob.

"Quiet, quiet!" Eönwë tried to calm the crowd. "There are ways of telling if he is a wolf."

"Tell us, tell us!" shouted the crowd.

"Well... what can float?"

"Wood!" shouted McCaber.

"Bread!" shouted Nessa.

"A wolf!" shouted Pitchwife.

"Exactly" verified Eönwë. "So logically, if he can float...

"...then he's a wolf!" shouted Brinniel triumphantly.

"And then we can kill him!" shouted the crowd.

"Precisely." said Eönwë.

So they took Legate to the river. They tied his hands and feet together and Brinniel and Pitchwife flung him in.

A little blood came up, but was washed past by the river. But there was no sign of Legate.

"He was innocent after all." said Eönwë. And everyone went back to the village square, downcast. "It just goes to show that money can't give you everything.

"And who shall we save for the night?" asked the mayor.

"Nogrod!" was the general consensus.

And so, the Night guards took up their positions for the third time, this time outside Nogrod's house.

Living:
A Little Green- the village butcher
alonariel- the village blacksmith
Boromir88- the village pig farmer
Brinniel- the village witch
Hakon- the village innkeeper
Inziladun- the village brewer
McCaber- chief (only) miner, head of miners' guild
Nerwen- a wandering minstrel
Nessa Telrunya- the village seamstress
Nienna- the village potter
Nilpaurion Felagund- the village fool
Nogrod- the retired bourgeois
Pitchwife- the village mason
satansaloser2005- The village librarian (Mistress of the books)
Shastanis Althreduin- the village apothecary
Thinlómien- the village chief gardener
wilwarin538- the village barmaid

The Dead
Kitanna- the village hermit - Seer
Mnemosyne- the village coquette - Innocent
Legate of Amon Lanc- the village broker - Innocent

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I think the wolves would be silly to not make two kills while they still can, but I also see Legate's point about a good frame job. The problem with his theory, however, is that if we strike gold and kill a wolf they can't make any more double kills, and as some others (Wilwa maybe? Heck if I remember) have pointed out it wouldn't be that hard to kill Legate at some point anyway. Still, I'm torn between lynching him and thinking it's simply too easy. Legate, you're not the ranger, are you?

It could have been hard to kill me later, like I said in some of my first posts this afternoon (I think it was my first after I returned), because the Ranger and the NG could take switches in guarding me, if I was a known innocent and the village decided that I am valuable enough.

And if I were the Ranger, I would have probably said so by now.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

You say it looks easy, I think it looks too clean. Pitch brings up the niche in the rules, Legate and McCaber yesterday say the Night Guard could be used to frame an innocent. Now Legate is spiritly arguing he is being framed.

But is it not true that NG can be used for people to be framed? Anybody can see that it's true, that it can be done (and I alone, and four Wolves somewhere around here, know that it IS being done right now), and the Wolves could have thought of that regardless of who said it in the first place (or if McC is one of them, then no problem of course, but thinking of that, why would he say it aloud on the thread if he were one), or even if some people would not have thought of it themselves, they could have thought of it once it's been said aloud.

I will agree with Inzil that it's been an admirable defense, but that doesn't take away from the fact that the "framing defense" is one of the weakest. Think you're that important to the wolves, eh?

Like I said, with all humility, if making two kills would mean making me a known innocent, who could be theoretically protected for the rest of the game (as long as the Ranger stays alive), I can imagine that I am not one of the most desireable people in the Wolves' eyes to get that role, the same like for example you or Nogrod or some others would be. Or is it your wolf pride resounding here, boiling inside you to show that you are not afraid of me at all, because that was not your reason to frame me?

Now Legate is arguing he is being framed as an easy lynch, after setting up for the apparently "solid" defense the previous day. I say apparently solid, because shouting a "wolf set up conspiracy against me" is in fact...weak and the only reason Legate would use such a weak defense is because it's the only one he's got left after one wolf kill last night.

Of course that's "the only one defense I have left", as that's defense against the only thing I have been accused of. What kind of a logic is that, Boro?

[Pitchwife]

Hi everybody, I'm back.
I must say, I like both sides of the discussion between wilwa and Legate. Both are trying to clarify the implications of the Night Guard thing, and their disagreeing with each other doesn't per se make either more guilty than the other.
I'm truly puzzled about Legate at the moment. As I said before, I found his #153 yesterday looking more innocentish than some of those before, and his arguments toDay are well reasoned, even if they happen to be in his own defense. There remains the one kill last Night when he was guarded. I can see the possibility of the wolves framing him - with the Seer dead, they may think they could afford losing one kill; and if he's innocent, he's attracting so much suspicion right now, detracting it from the wolves themselves, that they would be in no hurry to see him killed or lynched.
But that's all maybe; one way or another, we have to find out the truth. Suppose we Guard him one more night, would the wolves again be content with one kill?
That method would become useless, of course, if we happen to have the unbelievable luck of lynching a wolf toDay (instead of our Ranger or Hunter, or a plain ordo). It might be safer to lynch him toDay and lament him toMorrow, if he turns out to be innocent.