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#1 | |
Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,651
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Rikae, think about it for the strategy to not work the bear would need to be incredibly successful. Hunting wolves at night wouldn't be easy so logically he would start as early as possible.
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
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#2 |
Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,651
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Good night for the time being.
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
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#3 | ||
Fading Fëanorion
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: into the flood again
Posts: 2,911
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#4 |
Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,039
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MY consideration of voting for him was based entirely on his vote retraction and the reason for it he gave. Those who voted for him before that I find suspicious, in that I saw nothing to merit a vote for him at that time. Obviously tum should also be scrutinized for being the deciding factor.
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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#5 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
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!ydobyreve olleH
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EDIT: X'd with Alona.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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#6 |
Wight
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"Puddle! Puddle! Oh, snow! Future puddle!" Last edited by alonariel; 08-14-2009 at 11:04 PM. Reason: X'd with Nerwen |
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#7 | ||
Wisest of the Noldor
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And in fact I can think of three other reasons off the top of my head: 1. The bear thought Hakon a newbie-gifted (erratic behaviour, nervousness). 2. The bear thought he was the cobbler (sidetracking the village with pointless speculation). 3. The bear thought Hakon had spotted him. Anyone else notice this?– #35. EDIT:X'd with Alona at #529.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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#8 | |
Wight
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I hope I worded that right...
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"Puddle! Puddle! Oh, snow! Future puddle!" Last edited by alonariel; 08-14-2009 at 11:23 PM. Reason: X'd with Nerwen |
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#9 | |
Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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#10 | ||
Wisest of the Noldor
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EDIT:X'd with Mira.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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#11 |
Wisest of the Noldor
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I have some more to say, but no time to say it right now. Back later.
!eybdooG EDIT:removed extra E.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. Last edited by Nerwen; 08-15-2009 at 12:43 AM. |
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#12 |
Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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You're right, it was Mira. Sorry morm.
Also, one too many e's, newreN.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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#13 |
Wight
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I mean that, if an innocent is killed, are they able to choose the details of their death and leave hints in their death as to the player they think night-killed/lynched them?
EDIT: If this could be considered cheating, I will shut up now and never re-hatch the subject again.
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"Puddle! Puddle! Oh, snow! Future puddle!" Last edited by alonariel; 08-14-2009 at 11:39 PM. Reason: X'd with Nerwen |
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#14 |
Beloved Shadow
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Finally here. I haven't read a word of the posts today. I am starting to read right now, and will respond as I go. For now- these are my thoughts.
Frankly I was hoping to be offed during the night and be done with this. I said yesterday that throwing late votes on someone who couldn't defend himself properly was a perfect way to lynch a Gifted. Even earlier in the day I said that we should set an artificial deadline to avoid lynching gifteds. The idea was totally pooh-poohed. When people suspected me for suggesting Fea as an option, I said "Why? At least we wouldn't off a gifted that way." And finally Pitch I believe was the only person yesterday that I specifically said "hasn't been suspicious". So yeah, um... I so badly want to say this certain phrase to everyone.... I'm trying to resist... *grits teeth*
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the phantom has posted.
This thread is now important. |
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#15 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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Back, but have a headache (again, dang it) so hopefully I won't be up much longer.
I feel rather dumb; I said yesterDay that if I needed to be lynched in order to save a gifted, so be it, so it should have tipped me off when Pitch voted me. I'm sure that wasn't really his reason (although I can't think what it might have been, since as I discussed earlier it didn't help him out votewise to throw one away on me) but I found it ironic. In other news, I was going to suggest leaving Pitch for toDay since the suspicion of him jumped up so close to DL but I got kicked off the Downs (Boro can vouch, because I was on IM with him screaming to let me back on lol). Too late now, but I want my sentiment known. Back again in a bit. Going to check out the weather, since it was storming on my way home a bit ago. Phantom, Tum, how's the weather for you? Anything pretty? EDIT: x'd since Phantom
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#16 | |||
Beloved Shadow
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My gripe about voting for him was that the votes were conveniently coming when he was absent, and so if he was a Gifted he had no chance to save himself. When I've been a baddie in the past that's exactly what I like to do if someone looks gifted- you wait for them to be gone and then make your move (like with Noggie in Shasta's game). I had made that point about not starting a late charge earlier in the game and I was angry that people were doing exactly what I had not advised them to do. Doing that generally is disasterous. But anyway.... Quote:
Second, my vote wasn't a throwaway. I brought you to within one of his total and there was still a definite chance you could've died instead. If Tum would've gone with you possibly Pitch would still be alive. And there were still retractions out there. And if I could've voted earlier and put feelers out for others who wanted to off you, I would've. As far as why I didn't vote Hakon, I didn't really think he was guilty either. I believe I defended him on a couple of issues more than once yesterday. You were the one I was most curious about and I had a legit chance of lynching you. EDIT: Forgot to mention that at the time I also didn't know precisely what the count was even. I believe I did not have one Pitch vote and Mac's vote for Inzil figured in. I was in a late meeting and I couldn't give much attention to my laptop. So, clear? Quote:
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the phantom has posted.
This thread is now important. Last edited by the phantom; 08-15-2009 at 12:20 AM. Reason: extra... |
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#17 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: CT/NY
Posts: 681
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phantom-analysis
#542
Upset about Pitch's death, not pleased with anybody. #546 Responds to Rikae, saying didn't think Pitch was gifted, why he didn't vote Hakon, and to point out that his Rikae-vote did have backing. #549 Agrees with Mira's analysis that he was Pitch's first dream. #552 Makes sarcastic remarks about why people shouldn't vote him #556 Ponders forcing tie every day just to be a jerk Alon - "came under very slight threat halfway through, and so if she's guilty the Pitch voters don't look so good" Rikae - "threatened right at the deadline, so if she is guilty Tum rushing in and retracting her Hakon vote in favor of padding Pitch's lead (effectively savingRik's skin) looks extremely suspicious." If both are innocent we wouldn't have anything at all #558 Responds to Nerwen's question about feelings on Mira, determines doesn't know what to think #626 Defends Mira and her insanely idiotic slip, thinks is cobbler if anything Wants to know why Shasta voted Pitch, says doesn't make sense #644 Wants to know why morm is attracting votes Doesn't like the nickname confusion. Suggests lynching autumne to get rid of it. Sarcasm directed towards Rikae about a comment she made rhinoceros pudding #667 Doesn't want to vote morm or Brinn, tempted to vote Rikae again #672 "What's that you say, Shasta? You'd like to volunteer? Well, I'd love to help you out, but Sally said it first. She has to refuse before you can offer yourself. Sorry." Still picking a fight with Shasta, presumably over his vote for Pitch yesterDay #678 Says can't spot the bear and the people who thought Hakon spotted it are wrong #681 Introduces possibility that Alona and autumne are BFFs Considering voting for Rikae or Shasta or Tum because of nickname thing #688 Responds to Mac's question about why he didn't mention Inzil #691 "Well, now that an admittedly drunk Formendacil has voted Inzil, I certainly can't jump onto that train. See Mac. I just knew it wasn't for me. This is a sign. It confirms it." #712 "Shasta, Rikae, or Tum.... which one.... which one...." #714 Wonders why no one has elaborated on why Tum and Alona might be BFFs Ponders voting for whoever Brinn votes for just because she was nice to him #730 About the statement Rikae had made about being ready to trust him but then he said something that made her change her mind: "Well crap, Rikae. You say something like that so close to the deadline... And now I have to try a mad-speed goose chase to find out what the heck you're talking about. *sighs* Here goes..." #749 Votes Alona for dropping out of the game he modded. "Tonight- you need to come after me. No one's ever going to lynch me. I'm Pitch's most likely dream, and I don't lynch easily even if there is mass support. Just get rid of me already. You need to sooner or later after all." ~~~~~~~ Guess he got his wish on that last one... ![]() Clearly he had a problem with Shasta and Rikae (and Tum for the nickname thing, but that doesn't really count). The other thing that sticks out is the possibility of autumne and Alona being the BFFs. I might take a look at that later, but for now it should probably be bedtime.
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Rise and rise again until lambs become lions. Last edited by Mirandir; 08-16-2009 at 09:57 PM. Reason: xed since my last post |
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#18 | |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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Normally I'd not bother, but this is misrepresentation. I know Dun didn't mean any harm, but I wanna clear it up anyway.
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Didn't mean to side track, but I noticed that and wanted to clear it up for Dun's benefit. I think I need to go to bed. You've got me for....twenty more minutes or so.
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#19 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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So I get here and everyone clams up. Bloody typical.
I'll be in my bunk. (I'll be sleeping in quite late, if all goes to plan, and then I'm going to pop by to see my mother, so I'll be gone for a while but I will return in plenty of time to catch up, chat a bit, and of course vote.)
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#20 |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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Okay, now I managed to read through Day1 and these are the impressions I got based on it:
alonariel - cute avvie, but I still keep mixing her up with all the other newbies and half of Fea's gang autume- not much to go on, slightly fishy (ha!) when switching her vote Brinn- really touchy feely, whether due to a stressing role (werebear, anyone?) or bad day, no idea Durelin- I like her Formendacil- I like him Inziladun- quite okay this far, I don't get the suspicion against him Macalaure- not quite as suspicious as last time I played with him ![]() Mira- the banter-girl morm- good ol' grumpy morm, I like him ![]() Nerwen- when reading her posts I realised I missed her jokes when I was away from BD for several weeks... so it may be biased when I say she seems fine Nessa- don't get why everybody suspects her Nienna- totally under the radar Rikae- could take a relaxing holiday (maybe together with Brinn, aww, wouldn't that be sweet? ![]() sally- innocent enough Shasta- gives me bad vibes the phantom- messing around as usual Now I'm off to read toDay. I will comment as I read in order to save time so sorry if I end up parroting people!
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#21 | |||||
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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I think the bear might have though Hakon was the cobbler (I would have agreed with him/her there!) and killed him because of that. Rikae is making herself look like a cobbler. What, Mira is speculating about gifted identities? What's that?! More cobblers! Quote:
Hey people, btw, if you quote someone, can you put the name (and the real name, not the role name!) of the quoted person there? Otherwise it's difficult, especially for those who need to read through quickly. Rikae confuses me. Mac has kind of double standards because he says some things should not be talked about and then he continues that himself. Quote:
I skipped Mira's Hakon-analysis out of tiredness (sorry!) but read the conclusions and disagree. If a Rikaebear was seriously annoyed by some player, I think she could kill him just to be rid of him. I know she protests, which slightly alters my opinion but not totally because a) unless I'm mistaken, she has lied about never doing something before when being a baddie and more importantly b) if you have to survive through all of the game alone and someone is constantly attacking you and annoying you by that, it is perfectly honourable to kill them! Oh, Nerwen seems to have summed the possible reasons to Hakon's death quite nicely. Ai ai, I just realised that the death of seer doesn't only take from us the dreams, but also half of the evidence from the wolf-kills. I don't like this at all... Argharghargh it's going phantocentric again! Hey people, can't we just treat him like we treat everybody else, please? Rikae, love, please cool down. I like you personally. Quote:
Mmh I have played two games of RL ww recently and nailed every single wolf (Aganwolf & Legatewolf + Greeniewolf & Spawnwolf & nondownerwolf) but now I'm so much at loss looking at avatars instead of people's faces and having at least double the amount of players as before... and ok ok I'll stop gloating. ![]() Quote:
![]() And just fyi, I will have xed with everyone. Off to read more!
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#22 |
Fading Fëanorion
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: into the flood again
Posts: 2,911
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#23 |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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Just referring to the Mira-slip incident. The comment maybe doesn't make any sense anymore since everybody started to talk about it anyway, but back when it occured to me it made more sense. But I guess the basic point remains that you brought the slip to spotlight by talking about it - even though the wolves would have (probably) noticed it anyway. You just handed it a bit fishily, that's all.
edit: xed with Dury and tp
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#24 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: CT/NY
Posts: 681
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Rise and rise again until lambs become lions. |
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#25 |
Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,039
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Lovely. Thanks.
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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#26 |
Fluttering Enchantment
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Mira, how much work would it be for you to make one for my little victory scene? Those things are pretty awesome!
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Comme une étoile amarante Comme un papillon de nuit C'est la lumière qui m'attire La flamme qui m'éblouit Fenris Muffin
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#27 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: CT/NY
Posts: 681
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Rise and rise again until lambs become lions. |
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#28 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: CT/NY
Posts: 681
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Ugh that occurred to me in the shower, and believe me, I am bashing my head against the wall like it's my job. Which would probably be better than my actual job which will take me away for most of tomorrow again. Ugh.
On to Hakon-analysis!
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Rise and rise again until lambs become lions. |
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#29 | |
Laconic Loreman
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Unless I missed someone, Lommy, Mira and Nerwen did not vote yesterday. Lommy warned me well in advance about not being able to participate much in the first couple days. Plus she is with family and 'Downer guests, which I believe to be more important than checking into a game. So, her missed vote will not count towards the mod-fire rule. Mira did give proper warning about business and possibly not being able to vote. Yet she did not make use of the ++No Vote rule that I put up in place, mostly for those reasons. So, Mira, if you do not vote today, you will be mod-fired. This is negotiable, but outside of spontaneously imploding, having your computer blow up, or some other serious reason, I doubt I'll change my mind. Nerwen, has a habit of missing Day 1, but still with no reason provided as to why, the same will go for her. No vote today you'll be mod-fired. (Again this is negotiable, but again it will be difficult to change my mind). If you care to hear why I am such a heavy stickler on voting, I can explain, but I doubt anyone wants to hear a Moderators grumbling about missing votes. ![]()
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Fenris Penguin
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#30 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: CT/NY
Posts: 681
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Analysis Part 2 of 3: Hakon
For the sake of my own sanity, I'm going to skip the meaningless banter posts from the first few pages.
#20 Wants to know why morm said lynch phantom first in the admin thread. #25 Actually attempts analysis on Day 1. ![]() #35 Agrees with phantom's points (bear kill wolves, gifteds leave clues, psuedo-deadline) thinks phantom is probably gifted #132 Contemplates importance of the surveys #137 Reeeally wants to look at surveys. *insert lots of posts about the surveys and bantering with Rikae and a case of mistaken identity here* Really started getting on a lot of people's nerves (especially Rikae's) with the whole survey business. Could he have been distracting from something else? Such as a slip he had made previously that I missed? Maybe. /end mini-analysis #170 "I still think the bear can kill at least one person we are suspicious of." Thinks the bear will help the village *insert morm vote for Hakon* #178 Admits is very arrogant. What can he hope to gain from this, Mira wonders. Still thinks the village can convince the bear to do its bidding. *insert Rikae getting really annoyed and threatening to vote Hakon out of sheer irritation* #182 "If we figure out who the bear is, the bear will either end up lynched or a wolf will kill it. So if we figure it out then during the night phase the bear can kill a possible cobbler or wolf since the second the next day phase starts the bear will most likely by lynched or the bear will die int he night phase because a wolf kills it." Makes what I (and apparently Nerwen) think is a completely useless statement. #184 Still harping on the bear. #189 Says this topic is causing an unnecessary argument and we should focus on the wolves. *insert morm retracting vote for Hakon and locking in vote for Hakon* *insert somehow getting back on the topic of surveys which I thought we had already dealt with* #237 "For players I trust I think I had said Mac and Shasta. For players I distrust I think I had said Nessa and Inziladun." #263 Thinks Rikae's optimism about lynching a wolf Day 1 is because it happened in the past 2 games. #268 Feels people need to vote Fea or Hakon will die. #273 Responds to Rikae's analysis of mod-choosing of the roles about trusting and not trusting certain people and the likelihood of having feared or distrusted people as the seer. "As for the wolves one is probably a feared, one is a distrusted person and the final one a trusted person." *insert sally not wanting to discuss surveys* *insert Rikae saying Hakon is a safe vote, easy lynch, and probably innocent* #278 Doesn't like morm's vote for him. Cites last game as reason why he shouldn't by lynched. #288 Agrees with Brinn that morm voted Hakon because of Hakon's comment about morm fearing phantom. #296 Likes the idea of voting Fea. #303 Wants Rikae to take Inzil off her suspicious list on the grounds that he has been around and contributing unlike some other people. If he wasn't a known ordo I would suggest he was trying to protect a fellow wolf. Boro, when the cobbler is killed is his role revealed as such or as an ordo? #315 Suspicion list: 1. morm - nothing but a gut feeling 2. sally - might be cobbler 3. phantom - "He actually seems very innocent it just that he is very active and suggesting good ideas. In in my opinion that is the best way to hide being a wolf." 4. Rikae - might be bear #322 Thinks the bear is someone who talked about the bear a lot, such as Rikae. #350 Would like to know why Pitchwife finds Nessa the most cunning of the newbies. #387 Doesn't like autumne's wagon-vote for him. #394 Thinks Shasta makes a good point about Pitchwife #463 Votes Pitchwife to save himself. ~~~~~ The one solid connection I've found between the two dead that I've analyzed so far is that Rikae had a lot of interaction with both of them. This could be nothing or she could be evil. Hakon thought she might be the bear, but I seriously doubt that a Rikaebear would make such an obvious kill choice. The bear is probably someone who was annoyed by Hakon and his speculation about the bear role (or in general).
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Rise and rise again until lambs become lions. Last edited by Mirandir; 08-14-2009 at 11:02 PM. Reason: x-ed since my last post |
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#31 | |
Wight
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"Puddle! Puddle! Oh, snow! Future puddle!" |
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#32 | |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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Victim role, well, I'll be totally honest - I get the impression I'm being set up. Framed. In fact, I'm so irritated I'd better not post for a while. |
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