The Changing of Middle Earth

[Tuor in Gondolin]

Originally posted by Mnemosyne
The most obvious forms of help (i.e., the Istari), only have a 20% success rate, and even subtler ones (i.e., the wind from the Sea around March 15 and Sam seeing Earendil in Mordor) can't be attributed to them at all.

And there's perhaps the most crucial intervention, Bilbo's finding the ring
(although it's unclear who's the agent, the valar or Eru).

Was the eagles saving Thorin and Co. another example?

Perhaps an interesting example of the lessening influence of the valar in
Middle-earth is the decreasing influence of fate/predetermined history.
In Beleriand very strongly with the Children of Hurin, but also
Osse explaining to Tuor how he (Osse) can intervene to help but only to
a limited extent:

So it shall be while I endure, a secret voice that gainsayeth,
and a light where darkness was decreed. Therefore, though in the days
of this darkness I seem to oppose the will of my brethren, the Lords of the
West, that is my part among them, to which I was appointed ere the
making of the World.

Good maps above, but, other then Karen Forstad's atlas, haven't seen much
on the bulk of Middle-earth to the east and south. While barely glimpsed
vistas are integral to the historicity of Middle-earth, it would be nice to
know more of that region (and the Blue Wizards and the other dwarf
houses).

Btw, shouldn't the wizard success rate be 30% ? Radagast didn't
go to the dark side, and presumably did some good keeping some
kelvar and olvar"good" (at least around Eriador and Rhovannion).