WWLXII: Dead Men Do Tell Tales

[Thinlómien]

I think Inziladun's explanation of his vote seems ok, it didn't even make me suspicious in the first place, but this makes me raise my eyebrows:

Originally Posted by Zil

It's no more complex than that. Make of it what you will.

A frustrated innocent or an overreacting mutineer? Could be either.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

This is something I forgot to say before: your little theory assumes Wilwa's not an aggressor. We don't know that. At least I don't.

Good spotting, Nerwen - that is what I'd call a slip. But then again, I have made a rather similar slip when innocent... although when I made the slip I already knew the person I was talking about was innocent, so Sally's slip is a bit different... interesting.

I'm off to make a list.


edit: xed with a ghost

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Good spotting, Nerwen - that is what I'd call a slip.

A possible slip, anyway. Not quite on the order of, say, Agan's last game... but I'd certainly be interested to hear Sally's explanation.

[Macalaure]

While it can happen to the best of us to miss a kill, how can it be that four people missed it? It indeed indicates that one, probably even two, mutineers are ghosted. McCaber and Annu were lynched, Mira and Wilwa left. Do you think two of them could be mutineers? Of the two deserters, one could easily be (both would be a bit much). I don't think McCaber was a mutineer, so that would mean that Annu perhaps was.

As an afterthought, while missing a kill indeed can happen to everyone, it might be helpful to have an eye on the ones who do not post very frequently.

Irrespectively, Gwath and Inzy are very high on my suspicion list right now. I'm not entirely sure about Gwath - he might be a mutineer or innocent, but doesn't feel like a conspirator. Inzy, however, has to be either conspirator or mutineer - unfortunately I'm leaning more toward the former.

Another thing about the night kill: The most likely pick of Rikae was either truthfully Sally or Gwath. If those two aren't mutineers, then the night choice was awfully easy for them, and it would make it all the more puzzling that the kill was missed.

[Boromir88]

Another thing about the night kill: The most likely pick of Rikae was either truthfully Sally or Gwath. If those two aren't mutineers, then the night choice was awfully easy for them, and it would make it all the more puzzling that the kill was missed.~Mac

Well if it was not sending in a kill, then there's really no way to tell why.

But, I would like to hear Rikae's night selection, because if it was Lommy, then that's not looking good for Lommy. If Lommy's a wolf, and they fear the Hunter's picked her, they would want to stay away, but if they kill someone else, that just makes Lommy look even more suspicious. So, the laziness could just be cover to confuse us...still I don't really understand why the wolves wouldn't purposefully make a kill. They just handed us another chance.

But, as Lommy did say, it could have just been a slip up in communication.

Now here's a conspiracy theory...Nogrod, Mac, and Lommy are mutineers who are making it look like we have inactive wolves, so they can get us to continue to lynch the less active.

Whatever it is, just a communication mishap, purposefully not killing, or some whacked out conspiracy theory...would now be a good day to perhaps double-kill and get some concrete info?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I think Inziladun's explanation of his vote seems ok, it didn't even make me suspicious in the first place, but this makes me raise my eyebrows:
A frustrated innocent or an overreacting mutineer? Could be either.

Could be, I agree. I know how the whole incident could appear. I was at work and quite tired when I wrote that. I am again at work after around 5 hours sleep.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Irrespectively, Gwath and Inzy are very high on my suspicion list right now. I'm not entirely sure about Gwath - he might be a mutineer or innocent, but doesn't feel like a conspirator. Inzy, however, has to be either conspirator or mutineer - unfortunately I'm leaning more toward the former.

I'm sorry you feel that way. As I said, I can understand why people would be suspicious. Consider it well, though.

[Rikae]

Yep, I was hunting Lommy.

Today my main suspect is definitely Gwath. I think his reaction yesterday... well, innocents and baddies alike can get irritated in this game, but it reminded me very much of something that's happened to me before when I was evil. Someone accused me of making a slip I most certainly didn't, and wouldn't, make, and I reacted with righteous indignation (which I showed openly in hopes it would make me look more innocent). It looks like Gwath was having the same sort of reaction yesterDay.

As far as Sally's "slop", I'm assuming Wilwa's more likely innocent for the same reason I'm assuming that about Mira, and so it doesn't surprise me that Sally does so too. Besides, she did say "maybe". I don't think it's a slip.

Actually, I'm starting to wonder about Nerwen - I'd find her suspicious if she wasn't a quasi-known-innocent. Of course, the baddies might just leave her alive to try and force us to check her by double-lynching Greenie, and no one else has claimed to be seer. Best to wait, I guess (this is all sort of stream-of-consciousness).

If we're going to double-lynch at some point, I thihnk it would be best to do so to someone we lynched in the first place, wo we can analyze how everyone acted toward the lynch/bandwagon.

But today, I'm pretty much sure I'll vote for Gwath. Nothing personal, mind you, I just think he's a wolf.

Originally Posted by Boro

But, I would like to hear Rikae's night selection, because if it was Lommy, then that's not looking good for Lommy. If Lommy's a wolf, and they fear the Hunter's picked her, they would want to stay away, but if they kill someone else, that just makes Lommy look even more suspicious

Well, bear in mind, if you thought it was possible that I was hunting Lommy, the baddies might have thought so, too, regardless of who I actually hunted. They might have also thought, like Mac, I was hunting Sally or Gwath.

[Thinlómien]

-Legless Sally Dawkins ~ Carpenter
She's fishy if something. I keep flip-flopping on her - it's difficult to say if she's the evil sneaky Sally or just a busy Sally (or evil busy Sally, you catch my drift). But she does not seem especially innocent, I'm keeping my eye on her for now.

-Puffy Shirt Rikae ~ Cabin Boy
I think she is the hunter and at least it's safe to assume that for now. I was reluctant to talk about it yesterDay but people said aloud everything I was thinking but not saying so I may as well repeat - it is possible she's not the hunter, but then she's just an ordo or a cobbler, not a wolf.

-Gangrenous Inziladun Jones ~ Pilot
A difficult one to judge, no doubt. Not ringing any serious alarm bells but then again he fooled me completely last time too.

-Pirate Boromir the Malformed ~ Gunner
By gut-feeling I'd say he's innocent but I'm not as sure as I was on the earlier Days - the problem is that I know I'm innocent, Rikae seems to be innocent and I don't suspect Nogrod or Mac too much either and it just seems unprobable none of us experienced loudmouths would be evil. Especially as Nerwen seems to be a known innocent, Mith feels pretty genuine and Kath does not ring too many alarm bells either... Well anyway, I'm not very concerned about him.

-Shark Tooth Shasta ~ First mate
I think he is probably innocent. Or then he's a cobbler. But he seems quite genuine and just not very mutineerish. But then again he also slips under my radar. Difficult.

-Snifflin’ Mac Sparrow ~ Cooper
He is hibernating under Rudolph (to paraphrase Eönwë) and that's somthing I don't like. I keep thinking "oh Mac, nice, ok" when I see his posts and I don't like that at all. I have the feeling that he's innocent but I also have the feeling I'm mistaken here. Will watch him closely from now on. (I wonder if this all is due to him being more quiet than normal maybe...?)

-Almost-Blind Nerwen ~ Navigator/Sea Artist
I'm treating her as a known innocent for now.

-Poop Deck Kath ~ Musician (Pipe)
Hibernating under Rudolph as well. And I'm worried - she could very well be evil. The problem is that whenever she's evil, if I happen to catch her it's because she acts incriminatingly with her fellows, but in this game, there is no such evidence to go on. So I'm afraid she's evil and I just won't catch her.

-Cowerin' Gwath Slasher ~ Powder Monkey
I don't know... I still think he's fishy, but his frustration was genuine yesterDay... but wolves can be genuinely frustrated too. I don't know. My suspicion of him has lessened since I voted him but I can't quite give a rational explanation for it. I'm still watching him.

-Pirate Nogrod the Fashionably Late ~ Gunner
I don't like the fact that he can't be around... I keep forgetting to be wary of him. I will return to thinking about him when he returns, as of now I will just remain awaiting and slightly suspicious.

-Ham-Hands Izzy ~ Striker
People say she is slippery or has a fabricated tone to her posts, but she's one of those I feel the best about. There's simply nothing to make me suspicious. And I like her because she's being smart.

-Short Ruth Mithril ~ Cook
I think I can read her pretty well - maybe? - and I'm not alarmed. She seems to be on the busy-ordo-Mith mode right now.

-Stinkin' Eön Bloodbeard ~ Powder Monkey
Seems pretty innocent, I think.

So, in conclusion:
not suspicious of - Rikae, Nerwen, Izzy, Mith, Eönwë
not suspecting too much - Zil, Boro, Shasta
wary of - Mac, Kath, Gwath, Nogrod
suspicious of - Sally

And if my opinions change a little in the course of this post, don't worry, it's just that I think and write at the same time so the whole process gets kind of recorded.


edit: xed with everybody

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Mac

While it can happen to the best of us to miss a kill, how can it be that four people missed it? It indeed indicates that one, probably even two, mutineers are ghosted. McCaber and Annu were lynched, Mira and Wilwa left. Do you think two of them could be mutineers? Of the two deserters, one could easily be (both would be a bit much). I don't think McCaber was a mutineer, so that would mean that Annu perhaps was.

As an afterthought, while missing a kill indeed can happen to everyone, it might be helpful to have an eye on the ones who do not post very frequently.

As well as looking at those who do not post very frequently, we should look at those who have been away (like Nogrod). And this all verges on the edge of what is fair play and what is playing on out-of-game reasons (it would be easy to start checking who has posted on the 'Downs during the Night phase etc).

Besides, it can also be misleading. Imagine I - a rather active player who was online on the 'Downs yesterday - was a mutineer. The deadline happens to be 7am my time. Imagine my fellows are Americans who have their most active hours after I go to bed in the evening. What do I do? Probably send my suggestions on who to kill to my mates before I go to sleep and trust them to send the kill to the mod. They are all so called not-so-frequently posting people and they miss the kill (say, one is dead, one appears a few hours before the DL, sees the last one hasn't posted, sends a PM and leaves it up to them, and they don't turn up at all because of some unexpected hindrances). Now, by your logic, it would easy to say that I'm not likely someone to miss the kill, although it is exactly what happened in this example scenario. So, summa summarum, no use making hasty conclusions.

Originally Posted by Mac

Another thing about the night kill: The most likely pick of Rikae was either truthfully Sally or Gwath. If those two aren't mutineers, then the night choice was awfully easy for them, and it would make it all the more puzzling that the kill was missed.

Originally Posted by Boro

But, I would like to hear Rikae's night selection, because if it was Lommy, then that's not looking good for Lommy.

Excuse me, gentlemen, but just how on earth do you expect the mutineers to know Rikae's pick?

Mac, you expect the mutineers to have reached the same conclusion about Rikae's possible picks and furthermore, you expect your guesses to be correct. Ever heard of a bluffing hunter? You think too simply for me to be comfortable with you. And you assuming the mutineers to think like you looks like your pack had a nice chat last Night.

Boro - what on earth do you think we gain from knowing whom Rikae really hunted? The mutineers didn't know it either. Whether Rikae really hunted me or just threatened to wouldn't have affected their choice of action, because they had no way of knowing whom Rikae hunted. It doesn't incriminate me any more if Rikae really hunted me or not, what matters is that she threatened to. But there's no way a mutineer-me would have known whether she was bluffing or not, or a mutineer-anyone else would have known it. So, in short, the mutineers couldn't have just acted blindly on the assumption that Rikae hunted me, nor could they have chosen to attack or not attack her based on whom she hunted because they didn't know it.

Huh, you two confuse me.


edit: xed with Rikae

[Boromir88]

Boro - what on earth do you think we gain from knowing whom Rikae really hunted?~Lommy

I thought Rikae was pretty serious it would be sally if she was lynched, and you at night, considering the circumstances she was in and the threat of being lynched. Of course she could have been bluffing the night selection and the mutineers would have no way of knowing who she was really hunting, but if they feared one of their own was someone being hunted they wouldn't want to kill her. If they thought she was hunting an innocent they would. Simple as that.

I took who she said she was going to hunt as not a bluff, and well...maybe the mutineers did too.

By gut-feeling I'd say he's innocent but I'm not as sure as I was on the earlier Days - the problem is that I know I'm innocent, Rikae seems to be innocent and I don't suspect Nogrod or Mac too much either and it just seems unprobable none of us experienced loudmouths would be evil.

It wouldn't be the first time that none of us were...our Cap'n might enjoy watching the loudmouths lynch off eachother after tension builds and the first few days. If you feel I'm innocent, than trust it, don't let your feelings that it's "illogical" that none of the loudmouths are wolves to cloud your judgement of who you feel is innocent or not.

But look at the night kills...Greenie and Eomer, two players who are thoughtful voters, but were less active on this ship. Why wouldn't they kill off the loudmouths, why would they kill off their cover? And look at our lynches...McCaber, Mira, and Annu...how successful have we been? I don't know, maybe the time is right to check one of them. We could end up with some real information if we lynch one of those 3 again.

This will get me in trouble, but I don't care at this point...I wouldn't have passed up a night kill. I would have thought that would exonerate me completely.

But, I should say Lommy, your last post looks pretty innocent because it is so flippy-floppy . If that makes any sense. I could tear it apart for all the inconsistencies in there, but that actually makes you look better.

[Boromir88]

Just spit-ballin' here, knowing Mira's role could be really beneficial. It may sort out that sparring to lynch her or not, and could shed some light on Eomer's nightly death.

McCaber's could be good too, considering somehow he got lynched, with Shasta and Nogrod in danger too. But last minute bandwagons tend to include innocent's and may not involve the mutineers at all...still could be useful.

I never really was suspicious of Annu, so I don't know if his 2nd death would give us something, I will have to check the end of Day 3, but maybe someone thinks that could give us something? Care to explain, if you do?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Boro

But, I should say Lommy, your last post looks pretty innocent because it is so flippy-floppy . If that makes any sense. I could tear it apart for all the inconsistencies in there, but that actually makes you look better.

The post where I replied to you and Mac? I thought the other one was slightly illogical due to me writing and thinking at the same time but not that one...

And Boro it still doesn't shed any new light on the mutineers' actions that Rikae now confirmed she hunted me. (Speaking of which, I'm glad she was not killed, in that case. I hope she chooses better the time they really decide to go for her. )

Originally Posted by Boro

It wouldn't be the first time that none of us were...our Cap'n might enjoy watching the loudmouths lynch off eachother after tension builds and the first few days. If you feel I'm innocent, than trust it, don't let your feelings that it's "illogical" that none of the loudmouths are wolves to cloud your judgement of who you feel is innocent or not.

Nah, I doubt our Cap would do that. But you're right - I am clouding my judgement. Because it is silly to divide people up to completely random categories like "loudmouths" and expect a certain percentage to be wolves, it's the same as taking a category like "those who wear red socks" and assume a certain percentage of them is wolves. (Or okay, slightly less silly because mods may regulate how many loudmouths they take into a wolf team but not how many people wearing red socks they take - or at least I assume so. ) But anyway, whether my reasons to start looking for faults in fellow loudmouths were good or not, I'm glad I did start doing it because I was kind of ignoring people.

And Boro if you're a mutineer I'm saying this now already - you should be ashamed of how you try to manipulate me. But if you're innocent I can just take it as big brotherly advice.


edit: xed with Boro and Rikae

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I thought Rikae was pretty serious it would be sally if she was lynched, and you at night, considering the circumstances she was in and the threat of being lynched. Of course she could have been bluffing the night selection and the mutineers would have no way of knowing who she was really hunting, but if they feared one of their own was someone being hunted they wouldn't want to kill her. If they thought she was hunting an innocent they would. Simple as that.

Even if Gwath or Sally is a mutineer? They might have considered it too much of a risk. They couldn't have known for sure who Rikae would pick.

I think it's safe to say that if the baddies failed to send in the kill on purpose, it would mean at least one of those three (Gwath, Lommy & Sally) is probably guilty.

EDIT: X'd since Boro at #450; clarification.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I thought Rikae was pretty serious it would be sally if she was lynched, and you at night, considering the circumstances she was in and the threat of being lynched.

Actually, I was hunting Kath yesterDay. I just wanted to see how people would react to a Sally-kill.

Originally Posted by Boro

It wouldn't be the first time that none of us were...our Cap'n might enjoy watching the loudmouths lynch off eachother after tension builds and the first few days. If you feel I'm innocent, than trust it, don't let your feelings that it's "illogical" that none of the loudmouths are wolves to cloud your judgement of who you feel is innocent or not.

Hmm. I don't really like the way you latch on to the idea that none of us are evil - shows an awful lot of certainty wrt Mac, Nog, etc.

Originally Posted by Boro

We could end up with some real information if we lynch one of those 3 again.

I'd rather lynch Gwath toDay, and try the double-lynch toMorrow.

Originally Posted by Boro

This will get me in trouble, but I don't care at this point...I wouldn't have passed up a night kill. I would have thought that would exonerate me completely.

One reason not to kill anyone... it's been done before.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Actually, I was hunting Kath yesterDay. I just wanted to see how people would react to a Sally-kill.

Well, at the risk of being Captain Obvious, it certainly looks as if it can't be Gwath and Sally.

Why Kath, though?

[Boromir88]

And Boro if you're a mutineer I'm saying this now already - you should be ashamed of how you try to manipulate me. But if you're innocent I can just take it as big brotherly advice.~Lommy

I know I am pretty manipulative when I'm evil, but I still would live by a code and wouldn't be that evil.

Says he who missed yesterday's deadline because he fell asleep.~Mac

Haha, you try laying down on it and staying awake!

Hmm. I don't really like the way you latch on to the idea that none of us are evil - shows an awful lot of certainty wrt Mac, Nog, etc.~Rikae

I'm actually still most suspicious of Nogrod, but he did tell everyone he would miss today, and it doesn't feel right to push a lynching with someone who won't be here for a day. It may seem contradictory to why I wanted to lynch Mira, but we knew she would not be back and would be gone...Nogrod has assured his return.

[Rikae]

Inzil - I'm still wondering what to make of his "if Lommy isn't an aggressor, they might as well just kill Rikae" of yesterday. My first thought was that it was a cobbler pointing out to the baddies that I was probably bluffing about my pick, since it wouldn't serve my interests to be honest, in he guise of an ordo wondering why the hunter would announce a pick at all... now I'm wondering if it was an ordo's attempt to help me bluff, in spite of the earlier distrust... nah, now I'm spinning far-fetched theories Nogrod-style. Anyway, I'm inclined to think he's either a conspirator or an ordo.

Sally - Lying low, as Lommy mentioned - fishy. Then again, always seems a bit evil. I can't remember what the especially evil looking thing she did earlier was - I'll have to go back and look.

Gwath - Top suspect for reasons mentioned before.

Mac - Quiet, which I think is mostly due to having the flu. - though that doesn't make him innocent. I don't think he'd be one to miss the kill, though, and he's on EST now, so... leaning innocent.

Lommy - I agree with her that it's unlikely Mac, Boro, Nog, Nerwen, Lommy and I are all innocent. I'm not so sure she's innocent, though, and I have my doubts about Boro, too. Actually, I'm not sure about anyone but myself.

Boro - Looks innocent enough, which makes me think he's quite possibly guilty. By that I mean, I don't see any of his usual tricksiness. At this point in the game I would have expected an innocent Boro to have more of an impact. Still, that's just a negative suspicion, and therefore not that strong.

Nogrod - He seems more orless like himself, except that he hasn't gone after me, and he and Mac haven't gone after each other - which is actually very strange. I get the impression he's lying low, but is that what an aggressor-Nog (or ordo-Nog) would do?

Izzy - Flying under the radar, reminds me vaguely of the time I was a wolf with her...

Nerwen - as I said earlier, unsure, but don't see the sense in double-lynching Greenie to check her now.

Kath - Not only flying under the radar, but what she does post makes me uneasy.

Eonwe - I think he's probably innocent.

Shasta - likewise

Mith - I still don't have enough to go on.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Boro

Well if it was not sending in a kill, then there's really no way to tell why.

Not definitely, but some scenarios are more likely than others.

Oh, and I forgot about Lommy up there - it looks a bit worse for her, too.

Originally Posted by Lommy

-Snifflin’ Mac Sparrow ~ Cooper
He is hibernating under Rudolph (to paraphrase Eönwë) and that's somthing I don't like. I keep thinking "oh Mac, nice, ok" when I see his posts and I don't like that at all. I have the feeling that he's innocent but I also have the feeling I'm mistaken here. Will watch him closely from now on. (I wonder if this all is due to him being more quiet than normal maybe...?)

That is not vague at all...

Originally Posted by Lommy

we should look at those who have been away

Those, too, yes.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Besides, it can also be misleading.

I don't expect in the least that we could catch all mutineers this way, of course not. But I find the scenario where all mutineers are active and involved and they still missed the kill unlikely (though not impossible).

Originally Posted by Lommy

Ever heard of a bluffing hunter?

Duh. But, if I'm a wolf and the claimed hunter states he is going to pick me then I'm a lot more cautious about killing him than in the case that he states he thinks I'm not suspicious.

Lommy, why are you so defensive about this thing?


You are right, though, that it borders a bit on the "meta" level. I do not advocate lynching someone only because he's more quiet or has been away, just saying we should have an extra eye on them. We are sorely lacking knowledge, so every little valid assumption is helpful.

Originally Posted by Boro

I wouldn't have passed up a night kill.

Says he who missed yesterday's deadline because he fell asleep.