WWLXII: Dead Men Do Tell Tales

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Mehbe Willa was the kill, so Brinn didn't modfire her because....well, because I suppose, since she was just going to be ghosted anyway. What do you think? Plausible?

Nah. Either it's a Ranger-save, or else the baddies forgot to send in the kill... and the narration indicates the latter.

Which might mean we've managed to knock off one or two of them.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

If that's the case I'm suing for plagiarism, because I totally thought of it when doing my game.

Why doesn't that surprise me?

[Nerwen]

Anyone around?

[Eönwë]

Hmm... So I'm guessing that either the wolves forgot/weren't able to send their kill or a modifiring takes the place of a kill to give us clueless innocents more of a chance.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Nah. Either it's a Ranger-save, or else the baddies forgot to send in the kill... and the narration indicates the latter.

I tend to agree with this. The narrative didn't appear to say anything about ranger involvement.
All this time and no one else has been here? After the chaos yesterDay?

[Eönwë]

And just before I start being accused of bandwaggoning (like Gwath already did yesterday), I would like to say that I was working on my list and vote post at the same time (on different tabs) and so didn't see Wilwa's vote until I refreshed the thread before posting my vote post (if you look carefully you'll see I added the x-post bit just before I posted my vote post).

Just wanted to point that out...



Now to mutineer hunting! (No, that's not a reveal )


edit: didn't x-post

[Annunfuiniel]

Ah, I love my death scene to pieces! Not the most noble way to go, but definitely entertaining.

I forgot to vote before going to bed and then didn't hear my alarm in the morning. Don't know if it would've made any difference if I had been here though... Anyways, all you managed to do was to lynch a plain ordinary innocent. So, not a total disaster because you hit none of the gifteds but still... Can't honestly say "Keep up the good work".

But I'll be around, or at least half of me will be.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I tend to agree with this. The narrative didn't appear to say anything about ranger involvement.
All this time and no one else has been here? After the chaos yesterDay?

Lying low, it seems...

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Mehbe Willa was the kill, so Brinn didn't modfire her because....well, because I suppose, since she was just going to be ghosted anyway. What do you think? Plausible?

This is something I forgot to say before: your little theory assumes Wilwa's not an aggressor. We don't know that. At least I don't.

[Thinlómien]

I think the narration implies quite clearly that the mutineers didn't send in a kill. Why, it is an interesting question. The most probable reason is that they messed it up - someone promised to send in the kill and forgot, the others left it up to one of them and s/he didn't happen to come to be around before DL, anything. That's happened before. Or then, they didn't send in a kill in order to confuse us. I think our Cap' has done that as a wolf and with rather confusing results. So, sadly, I don't think we can deduce much of the kill - except that I'm slightly inclined to agree with Nerwen that if the mutineers were all alive, the chance to such a slip would be smaller (if it was a slip). And with no clear reason this missing kill makes me suspicious of the missing Nogrod.

[Thinlómien]

I think Inziladun's explanation of his vote seems ok, it didn't even make me suspicious in the first place, but this makes me raise my eyebrows:

Originally Posted by Zil

It's no more complex than that. Make of it what you will.

A frustrated innocent or an overreacting mutineer? Could be either.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

This is something I forgot to say before: your little theory assumes Wilwa's not an aggressor. We don't know that. At least I don't.

Good spotting, Nerwen - that is what I'd call a slip. But then again, I have made a rather similar slip when innocent... although when I made the slip I already knew the person I was talking about was innocent, so Sally's slip is a bit different... interesting.

I'm off to make a list.


edit: xed with a ghost

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Good spotting, Nerwen - that is what I'd call a slip.

A possible slip, anyway. Not quite on the order of, say, Agan's last game... but I'd certainly be interested to hear Sally's explanation.

[Macalaure]

While it can happen to the best of us to miss a kill, how can it be that four people missed it? It indeed indicates that one, probably even two, mutineers are ghosted. McCaber and Annu were lynched, Mira and Wilwa left. Do you think two of them could be mutineers? Of the two deserters, one could easily be (both would be a bit much). I don't think McCaber was a mutineer, so that would mean that Annu perhaps was.

As an afterthought, while missing a kill indeed can happen to everyone, it might be helpful to have an eye on the ones who do not post very frequently.

Irrespectively, Gwath and Inzy are very high on my suspicion list right now. I'm not entirely sure about Gwath - he might be a mutineer or innocent, but doesn't feel like a conspirator. Inzy, however, has to be either conspirator or mutineer - unfortunately I'm leaning more toward the former.

Another thing about the night kill: The most likely pick of Rikae was either truthfully Sally or Gwath. If those two aren't mutineers, then the night choice was awfully easy for them, and it would make it all the more puzzling that the kill was missed.

[Boromir88]

Another thing about the night kill: The most likely pick of Rikae was either truthfully Sally or Gwath. If those two aren't mutineers, then the night choice was awfully easy for them, and it would make it all the more puzzling that the kill was missed.~Mac

Well if it was not sending in a kill, then there's really no way to tell why.

But, I would like to hear Rikae's night selection, because if it was Lommy, then that's not looking good for Lommy. If Lommy's a wolf, and they fear the Hunter's picked her, they would want to stay away, but if they kill someone else, that just makes Lommy look even more suspicious. So, the laziness could just be cover to confuse us...still I don't really understand why the wolves wouldn't purposefully make a kill. They just handed us another chance.

But, as Lommy did say, it could have just been a slip up in communication.

Now here's a conspiracy theory...Nogrod, Mac, and Lommy are mutineers who are making it look like we have inactive wolves, so they can get us to continue to lynch the less active.

Whatever it is, just a communication mishap, purposefully not killing, or some whacked out conspiracy theory...would now be a good day to perhaps double-kill and get some concrete info?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I think Inziladun's explanation of his vote seems ok, it didn't even make me suspicious in the first place, but this makes me raise my eyebrows:
A frustrated innocent or an overreacting mutineer? Could be either.

Could be, I agree. I know how the whole incident could appear. I was at work and quite tired when I wrote that. I am again at work after around 5 hours sleep.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Irrespectively, Gwath and Inzy are very high on my suspicion list right now. I'm not entirely sure about Gwath - he might be a mutineer or innocent, but doesn't feel like a conspirator. Inzy, however, has to be either conspirator or mutineer - unfortunately I'm leaning more toward the former.

I'm sorry you feel that way. As I said, I can understand why people would be suspicious. Consider it well, though.

[Rikae]

Yep, I was hunting Lommy.

Today my main suspect is definitely Gwath. I think his reaction yesterday... well, innocents and baddies alike can get irritated in this game, but it reminded me very much of something that's happened to me before when I was evil. Someone accused me of making a slip I most certainly didn't, and wouldn't, make, and I reacted with righteous indignation (which I showed openly in hopes it would make me look more innocent). It looks like Gwath was having the same sort of reaction yesterDay.

As far as Sally's "slop", I'm assuming Wilwa's more likely innocent for the same reason I'm assuming that about Mira, and so it doesn't surprise me that Sally does so too. Besides, she did say "maybe". I don't think it's a slip.

Actually, I'm starting to wonder about Nerwen - I'd find her suspicious if she wasn't a quasi-known-innocent. Of course, the baddies might just leave her alive to try and force us to check her by double-lynching Greenie, and no one else has claimed to be seer. Best to wait, I guess (this is all sort of stream-of-consciousness).

If we're going to double-lynch at some point, I thihnk it would be best to do so to someone we lynched in the first place, wo we can analyze how everyone acted toward the lynch/bandwagon.

But today, I'm pretty much sure I'll vote for Gwath. Nothing personal, mind you, I just think he's a wolf.

Originally Posted by Boro

But, I would like to hear Rikae's night selection, because if it was Lommy, then that's not looking good for Lommy. If Lommy's a wolf, and they fear the Hunter's picked her, they would want to stay away, but if they kill someone else, that just makes Lommy look even more suspicious

Well, bear in mind, if you thought it was possible that I was hunting Lommy, the baddies might have thought so, too, regardless of who I actually hunted. They might have also thought, like Mac, I was hunting Sally or Gwath.

[Thinlómien]

-Legless Sally Dawkins ~ Carpenter
She's fishy if something. I keep flip-flopping on her - it's difficult to say if she's the evil sneaky Sally or just a busy Sally (or evil busy Sally, you catch my drift). But she does not seem especially innocent, I'm keeping my eye on her for now.

-Puffy Shirt Rikae ~ Cabin Boy
I think she is the hunter and at least it's safe to assume that for now. I was reluctant to talk about it yesterDay but people said aloud everything I was thinking but not saying so I may as well repeat - it is possible she's not the hunter, but then she's just an ordo or a cobbler, not a wolf.

-Gangrenous Inziladun Jones ~ Pilot
A difficult one to judge, no doubt. Not ringing any serious alarm bells but then again he fooled me completely last time too.

-Pirate Boromir the Malformed ~ Gunner
By gut-feeling I'd say he's innocent but I'm not as sure as I was on the earlier Days - the problem is that I know I'm innocent, Rikae seems to be innocent and I don't suspect Nogrod or Mac too much either and it just seems unprobable none of us experienced loudmouths would be evil. Especially as Nerwen seems to be a known innocent, Mith feels pretty genuine and Kath does not ring too many alarm bells either... Well anyway, I'm not very concerned about him.

-Shark Tooth Shasta ~ First mate
I think he is probably innocent. Or then he's a cobbler. But he seems quite genuine and just not very mutineerish. But then again he also slips under my radar. Difficult.

-Snifflin’ Mac Sparrow ~ Cooper
He is hibernating under Rudolph (to paraphrase Eönwë) and that's somthing I don't like. I keep thinking "oh Mac, nice, ok" when I see his posts and I don't like that at all. I have the feeling that he's innocent but I also have the feeling I'm mistaken here. Will watch him closely from now on. (I wonder if this all is due to him being more quiet than normal maybe...?)

-Almost-Blind Nerwen ~ Navigator/Sea Artist
I'm treating her as a known innocent for now.

-Poop Deck Kath ~ Musician (Pipe)
Hibernating under Rudolph as well. And I'm worried - she could very well be evil. The problem is that whenever she's evil, if I happen to catch her it's because she acts incriminatingly with her fellows, but in this game, there is no such evidence to go on. So I'm afraid she's evil and I just won't catch her.

-Cowerin' Gwath Slasher ~ Powder Monkey
I don't know... I still think he's fishy, but his frustration was genuine yesterDay... but wolves can be genuinely frustrated too. I don't know. My suspicion of him has lessened since I voted him but I can't quite give a rational explanation for it. I'm still watching him.

-Pirate Nogrod the Fashionably Late ~ Gunner
I don't like the fact that he can't be around... I keep forgetting to be wary of him. I will return to thinking about him when he returns, as of now I will just remain awaiting and slightly suspicious.

-Ham-Hands Izzy ~ Striker
People say she is slippery or has a fabricated tone to her posts, but she's one of those I feel the best about. There's simply nothing to make me suspicious. And I like her because she's being smart.

-Short Ruth Mithril ~ Cook
I think I can read her pretty well - maybe? - and I'm not alarmed. She seems to be on the busy-ordo-Mith mode right now.

-Stinkin' Eön Bloodbeard ~ Powder Monkey
Seems pretty innocent, I think.

So, in conclusion:
not suspicious of - Rikae, Nerwen, Izzy, Mith, Eönwë
not suspecting too much - Zil, Boro, Shasta
wary of - Mac, Kath, Gwath, Nogrod
suspicious of - Sally

And if my opinions change a little in the course of this post, don't worry, it's just that I think and write at the same time so the whole process gets kind of recorded.


edit: xed with everybody

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Mac

While it can happen to the best of us to miss a kill, how can it be that four people missed it? It indeed indicates that one, probably even two, mutineers are ghosted. McCaber and Annu were lynched, Mira and Wilwa left. Do you think two of them could be mutineers? Of the two deserters, one could easily be (both would be a bit much). I don't think McCaber was a mutineer, so that would mean that Annu perhaps was.

As an afterthought, while missing a kill indeed can happen to everyone, it might be helpful to have an eye on the ones who do not post very frequently.

As well as looking at those who do not post very frequently, we should look at those who have been away (like Nogrod). And this all verges on the edge of what is fair play and what is playing on out-of-game reasons (it would be easy to start checking who has posted on the 'Downs during the Night phase etc).

Besides, it can also be misleading. Imagine I - a rather active player who was online on the 'Downs yesterday - was a mutineer. The deadline happens to be 7am my time. Imagine my fellows are Americans who have their most active hours after I go to bed in the evening. What do I do? Probably send my suggestions on who to kill to my mates before I go to sleep and trust them to send the kill to the mod. They are all so called not-so-frequently posting people and they miss the kill (say, one is dead, one appears a few hours before the DL, sees the last one hasn't posted, sends a PM and leaves it up to them, and they don't turn up at all because of some unexpected hindrances). Now, by your logic, it would easy to say that I'm not likely someone to miss the kill, although it is exactly what happened in this example scenario. So, summa summarum, no use making hasty conclusions.

Originally Posted by Mac

Another thing about the night kill: The most likely pick of Rikae was either truthfully Sally or Gwath. If those two aren't mutineers, then the night choice was awfully easy for them, and it would make it all the more puzzling that the kill was missed.

Originally Posted by Boro

But, I would like to hear Rikae's night selection, because if it was Lommy, then that's not looking good for Lommy.

Excuse me, gentlemen, but just how on earth do you expect the mutineers to know Rikae's pick?

Mac, you expect the mutineers to have reached the same conclusion about Rikae's possible picks and furthermore, you expect your guesses to be correct. Ever heard of a bluffing hunter? You think too simply for me to be comfortable with you. And you assuming the mutineers to think like you looks like your pack had a nice chat last Night.

Boro - what on earth do you think we gain from knowing whom Rikae really hunted? The mutineers didn't know it either. Whether Rikae really hunted me or just threatened to wouldn't have affected their choice of action, because they had no way of knowing whom Rikae hunted. It doesn't incriminate me any more if Rikae really hunted me or not, what matters is that she threatened to. But there's no way a mutineer-me would have known whether she was bluffing or not, or a mutineer-anyone else would have known it. So, in short, the mutineers couldn't have just acted blindly on the assumption that Rikae hunted me, nor could they have chosen to attack or not attack her based on whom she hunted because they didn't know it.

Huh, you two confuse me.


edit: xed with Rikae