Tol-in-Gaurhoth LVII - Chess Game for Middle Earth: Game Thread

[satansaloser2005]

Going through and reading, but I'd just like to say something quick, silly though it may be.


DUDE! Noggie, go to bed. We killed you off last game (that is, Brinn, Nerwen, and I) so you would get some sleep, but this game I'm not evil so you're on your own. Silly man, get some rest. Mistress Sally commands it.


And on that note some things from yesterDay. I'll hopefully do some more analysis on the votes, but the thing that really worried me was Phantom and Brinn right at the end of the Day, both glomping poor Gwathiepoo like that. (And yes, he's going to come from beyond the grave and totally smite me for calling him that, but it's just too fun to resist.) I'd certainly like to know if they x'd or if it was intentional bandwaggoning on one or both their parts. (I suppose if nothing else they both intended to separately bandwagon and both happened to do it at the same time, but it still strikes me as odd.)


And for Little Mnemo, I voted Fea because, of the suspects that were available, she looked the dingiest upon a short readthrough. Notice that Nerwen, Gwath, and I were/are all innocent (not that you'll believe me, but hey) so I still think I made the best choice. Besides, as I said shortly after I voted, I preferred to not have the lynch left up to Shasta and his coin flipping machine. We all know how that can end up. So, of the people who were close to the tie range, again, Fea was the best decision I could make at the time.



EDIT: x'd since....Izzy, I believe. I certainly don't remember seeing that post of Phantom's anyway.

[Kath]

Hi all! Just to say I am here and am currently writing a post. It might take a while to go up as I'm being distracted by the Oscars but it's on it's way.

[Kath]

Alright, quick explanation for yesterDay in answer to mostly Nog I think. I had no time and decided to vote randomly. I decided to vote for the person above me and that happened to be Nerwen. After I had written up to the bolded vote I suddenly realised that leaving the post as it was left me very open to a Night 1 kill and I didn't want to get killed off due to having no time so I added on a silly 'list' that could hardly based on real suspicions because there had been about 20 posts at that point and almost all of them were typical Day 1 silliness.

Now I'll make a proper one based on a good readthrough!

Mnemo - old thoughts on phantom and Fea, pretty pointless post. Fair points on the werebear/werewolf debate. Ah more confusion, but she made a good point through it. Yeah same thoughts on Hansy. I'm intrigued that she thinks Nog is being 'ridiculously' helpful, it's an odd comment. Defends herself - 'if I were something I'd be being far more careful' seems to be the gist of it. Votes Eonwe. Bit random, and a little leaping on the bandwagon-esque, not sure about this.

sally - again a pretty obvious first post. 'Let's get the baddies.' Not keen on her voting reasons. Fea for bad vibes whereas Nerwen for an actual reaction, yet she sticks with Fea.

phantom - silly list with himself, Mnemo and sally as bad guys and Durelin as a good guy. Just as ridiculous as my list I'd say! Defends Fea. Says the werewolves aren't really scary this time round for himself, though I think they are for the white team in general because of the sheer number of possible kills. Interesting thoughts about the Black roles - will they try to work together or work against each other. I don't think we can have any idea yet but it's interesting to see the theories. Good comments on whether it's more worth having pawns dreamt of and Gifted's revealing, I think he's actually probably right though with so many Gifted's there is a lot of leeway for false reveals leading to Days spent trying to figure out who is who. Votes Gwath in order to save Fea, despite in the previous post saying that for once he'd be alright with letting her go. Looks like old friendships got the better of him.

Durelin - votes sally due to a 'gut-feeling'. Hope we get more from her toDay as that isn't a random vote as advertised.

Izzy - says we should only focus on the roles we do know about rather than speculate about the ones we don't. I can see her point but it's often in the discussion that you begin to see role clues. Ooh interesting point about Mnemo there. Sticks to her guns and votes Gwath.

Brinn - complaint about chatter (though it was amusing ), then first bit of serious commenting even if it was obvious. But then someone's got to state it. Sees my point about the possibility for fake reveals. List post seems to say suspicious of Fea, Gwath, Eonwe and Mnemo. Reasons for all. Vote Gwath, pretty consistent.

Eomer - somewhat cryptic, mostly unhelpful. Says I deliberately voted for the only person who had said anything sensible. Wrong but interesting. Says he will be looking out for patterns on Day 2. The wolves know he's a dangerous player and with so little said Day 1 it makes him a sensible kill. Votes sally for saying nothing and then saying something that by the time she said it was pointless - I agree actually.

Nerwen - wonders whether sally or phantom might have been making a confession through the banter. As she was killed by the wolves I think it's unlikely. This was most probably an attempt to start some real discussion. Same thoughts as most about Hansy, interesting ones about Rikae especially given that Nog spoke for her only a post or two before. As for me, unfortunately Kath votes like that on a fairly regular basis whether good or evil because somehow Day 1's seem not to register.

Hansy - sort of introduction post. Interesting role question, not sure where she/he (?) is coming from with it. Will the black pawn turn into a white pawn if dreamt of by the black bishop. Tis somewhat like what I thought the White Queen might do but it's an odd question from a newbie. Or does she/he mean they will be seen as an innocent rather than the cobbler? Could do with some clarification there. Interesting thoughts about the werebear though again I'm not quite sure. 'Hired gun' for the innocents? Even if the werebear was revealed they would surely not work for the side of good, and indeed the wolves would surely kill them off. You know she/he has some really interesting thoughts resulting from all this role confusion but I do with she/he had just read the rules! Ah! Hansy is male, I shall now remember this. Defends himself ... but not well. Votes Fea - admits it's retaliation. I don't like it.

Eonwe - given what he's said on the admin thread I'm going to leave him be til we know whether he's still playing or not.

wilwa - hmm, also mentions the 'confessions' thing. Obviously no one trusts someone who 'reveals' anymore! Some interesting thoughts about the roles, especially what the White Queen might actually be. Says she is likely to bandwagon because she doesn't know players - odd comment. Suspicion of Brinn, Gwath and Eonwe with some reasoning and votes Eonwe because she didn't want to add a new person to the vote possibilities. I don't know, it's seems likely a perfectly sensible vote but, you know, it is a bandwagon at this point and she had said she was going to join one. Without the earlier comment this wouldn't have pinged at all but as it is I'm not sure.

Nog - 'even a joke should have some meaning' he quotes, yet this post doesn't. Clears up the role confusion pretty well I think. Same point I thought of with the discussion leading to potential slips thing. Worried about Mnemo, sally and Brinn but mostly me. Hopefully I've explained what he was worrying about. Some good points about Hansy. Usual 'why oh why can't they post more often' comments. I agree with him about wilwa being odd though. Doesn't like all the random votes that aren't actually random. Despite the fact that he thought I was doing the same thing I am inclined to agree with him in some cases. Very non-commital in his big post. The only person he seems to have any sure thoughts about is Rikae (innocent), everyone else is 'could be evil, might not be'. Complete turnaround on Rikae. Do you know this makes me think she actually could be a wolf. Nog, with all the love in the world, can be as utterly wrong as any of us and for the only person he is 'sure' of to suddenly look suspicious and for him to change his opinion of his own accord makes him look good and her look bad. Votes Fea but I don't think it's good reasoning, she only mentioned her theory because she decided that he wasn't the Seer, otherwise she wouldn't have said a thing. He is taking a very different line on the Fea thing, which does seem to have divided everyone, but he's got some good reasoning behind it even if I disagree. I hadn't even considered that she might be the Cobbler but then I'm looking at the original comment differently I think.

Fea - defends phantom. Oh Fea noticed that werebear thing from Hansy as well. Votes Hansy, I can see why. He/she seemed to know so much to start with and then suddenly gets so many things mixed up, it's tempting to think it's an act.

Rikae - interesting role thoughts. The White Queen could well be multigifted. I wondered at the beginning whether she might be something like that DW characters in that she might be able to 'turn' a black piece into a white one but then I think it would unbalance the game. Voiced some early suspicion of Nerwen and is as cross with Nog for focusing on the same old things as I generally am. I'm not sure why the suspicion of Nerwen unless it was based wholly on a previous game though. Argues with Hansy and mentions Eomer's distate for Day 1. Says she may vote for Nerwen for what she said before, Izzy or Eonwe. Not a huge amount of reasoning but alright for Day 1, though I'd have liked more detail about Nerwen. Votes Eonwe, the only person in her list for whom she had not explained her reasoning. Would definitely like to know what that was about.

Gwath - spoke to Mith, pointed out Mnemo's Who reference. Makes no sense. We should focus on neither the wolves nor the bear? That's going to help. Good point about wilwa. Votes Fea, because of what Nog said, which I think was wrong anyway. I do wish we could see more of his own thoughts. The poor guy does get lynched early so often but, and again without wanting to sound harsh, it does seem to be entirely his own fault. Actually is working from a really funny angle as regards Fea because the bit he is quoting is after the fact, she's outing her theory, she's saying she's wrong and that's what he picks up on not the previous hint - yep, can definitely see why he died.

Mirandir - wants Fea lynched. Well thus far she's not said a lot but I'm sure a few posts further in I'll be agreeing! Says he won't vote newbies, fair enough.

Lari - good role thoughts, I think that yes the Black Queen would die even if she killed the Hunter because the Hunter takes down whoever they've picked if they die. I agree with her about what would happen if anyone tried to 'blackmail' the Black Queen. List post: ends up with Fea, Nog and Rikae looking suspicious. Didn't quite follow her reasoning about Nog but possible wolf collaboration between Fea and Rikae is an interesting idea. Votes Nog, ah and now I understand the earlier comment. Well, she'll have a field day with this if she thinks analysis = guilty!

Bleurgh that got long. So, from this I'd say (ignoring those who died):

Possibly guilty - for all of them because I didn't like the vote mostly, either because it didn't seem to follow on or wasn't explained well:
Mnemo
sally
Hansy
wilwa
Rikae

Possibly not - for the first three because of their consistency:
Izzy
Brinn
Lari
phantom - he's too laid back, too not involved to be something important.

No idea - mostly would simply like to hear more from them:
Mirandir
Fea
Nog
Eonwe
Durelin

[Kath]

And Day 2 - it's getting late for me though so I may have to be a bit less thorough here.

Mnemo - first post makes me feel better about her. Good point about Eomer and about sally. I believe it is the former when it comes to phantom and Nog, two egotistical innocents battering each other.

sally - I certainly don't think it's odd that phantom voted to save Fea, he thought she was innocent, don't know about Brinn. Now do know about Brinn, think this is still odd.

Fea - fair explanation.

Mirandir - says she would have voted Gwath to save Fea, useful to know, would be nice to know why she wanted to save Fea.

Brinn - ah Brinn being pessimistic, now that makes me feel good about her! Fair points on the kills and her follow-through on sally is interesting. Odd comment at the end though, saying that actually Fea and Eonwe dropped off her suspicion list yesterDay though they aren't off the hook. If they're not baddies then how can they be on the hook?

Rikae - interesting that she figured Nerwen out, no one else seems to have had any idea. She's a bold enough wolf to come out and say it. That said I agree with her about Fea. Hmm I can see her points about Izzy. Actually I really can, from what I recall about Izzy in past games she has been really good at coming up with original ideas and posting well and this game she hasn't done much of that.

Lari - suspicion of Hansy for what he said about Fea.

wilwa - good point about Mirandir though she did explain it. To be honest this list post is like Nog's yesterday, no real opinions just 'could be this, not sure, will keep an eye open'. Except Mnemo, whom she seems pretty certain of. Votes Mnemo - well it's consistent.

Nog - interesting thoughts about how to find the werebear, though of course that says nothing about role as both sides want rid of them. Not sure the White Queen would have an extra kill, if she got it wrong and we had three kills a Night ... that's a lot of deaths. Hmm, with the letters. I think K stands for King, Shasta is the mod and therefore the king, then d is going to stand for pawn, why it's not a p I don't know, and that then Q is queen and B is, well bishop I gues but wolves in general. The numbers though I think are random. Fea did answer the question you know. Still, he's decided she's the Cobbler and will thus leave her be and so I see no point in spending time debating that with him. I disagree with him about phantom. phantom believes Fea is innocent. If Fea turns out not to be innocent then and only then will phantom follow Nog. Seems clear. Aww Nog you still hate me because I always seem to have RL reasons Day 1? You know I always make up for it. Fair point about sally. Votes Izzy which is interesting as, while I agree with the reasoning, I don't think he'd mentioned her a lot before.

Hansy - says he would have voted for sally. Thinks Nog is evil. I disagree, I think Nog got the different end of a stick. The whole thing between him and Gwath smacked of two innocent fighting it out to me.

Durelin - interesting point about Brinn, will look at that. Have looked, no she said Gwath and Fea were both on her suspicion list so either way she voted it would have been consistent.

So from that:

Possibly guilty:
sally - don't like her reasoning yesterDay or toDay.
Izzy - for what I said above.
Rikae - because I think she could be an incredibly bold wolf.
Hansy - still not keen.

Possibly not:
Fea - yeah I'm still not convinced about the Black Pawn thing.
phantom - again too uninvolved to be anything.
wilwa - that consistency has just made me happier about her.
Nog - he's a misguided innocent, he has to be. Any argument like the one between him and phantom has to be innocent on innocent.
Mnemo - I'm much happier about her toDay.

No idea:
Mirandir - want to see more from her, a lot more.
Durelin - would like more of an explanation about Brinn.
Brinn - want an answer to that question before she goes in a list.
Lari - I'm just not getting anything here.
Eonwe - as I said, leaving him alone.

Ha, I'm impressed Mnemo thinks I'm coherent though. It's 1 in the morning and I'm falling asleep. Therefore I shall vote and go.

It's between sally, Izzy, Rikae or Hansy - just as it would have been yesterDay. I think the only way my vote would be useful is if I went for Izzy or Hansy and as I have a dislike of bumping newbies off early:

++IZZY

[Rikae]

In reply to Kath's first post: I put my reasons in the vote post. Not much, true, but the best I had to go on at the time.

Now, a spanking (a spanking!)... er, a list:

Mirandir – Who knows what evil lurks in the heart of Mirandir? Really, there is very little there, and what little there is is a tad dark looking.
Durelin - She seems more or less innocentish; straightforward, confident, but not edgy.
Fea– Maybe she is, and maybe she isn't. The white wizard will know.
I'm leaning toward innocent, though. I really don't think Nog's case holds up to scrutiny (it makes him look worse, not her).
Isabellkya – I don't like what I see.
the phantom – He looks very sensible. I suppose he's good enough to do so while evil, but I haven't seen anything to cause me to suspect him.
Brinniel – Seems sensible and a bit grumpy. Like last game... she was evil last game. I'll keep an eye on her (two, when I can spare them).
satansaloser2005 – I disliked her vote from yesterday and I haven't seen anything to put her in a better light.
Lariren Shadow – She has done some slight things to make me wary. I would like to have a closer look at her, but I don't have the time now.
wilwarin538 – I like what I see.
Eonwe – Cautious, under-the-reindeerish, likely to be ignored, which may be dangerous.
Nogrod – Went single-mindedly after Fea for weak reasons - but I didn't find that unusual. However, the way he now goes after tp for even weaker reasons is much, even for him. He does share my thoughts on Izzy, which looks a bit better, but then I have to remember that he has been a backstabbing wolf before, and that one could also be a werebear. I'm unsure, but more and more would like to know his role.
Mnemosyne – Difficult to read, since I'm not familiar with her, but I don't get any evil vibes. She's active and takes the initiative, which I like to see.
Kath – I'm glad she's back, and what I've seen is reassuring about her.
Hansy – I don't like all the talk about cheating, but that's not the same as suspecting him. No read at all.


Suspect most:
Izzy, Sally


Suspect moderately:
Nogrod, Steve, Lari

Suspect a bit:
Brinn, Mira

Neutral/Somewhat innocent:
Hansy, Kath, Mnemi, tp, Fea

Most innocent:
Wilwa, Durelin

And voting:

++Isabellkya

EDIT: X'd with Hansy

[the phantom]

Wilwa ++Mnem
Nog ++Izzy
Kath ++Izzy (2)
Hansy ++Nog
Rikae ++Izzy (3)

Well, well... off to an early lead.

What do you have to say about this, Izzy? You have just under four hours to move to a safer square on the board.

EDIT: x-post Fea

[Isabellkya]

ToDay...

It might just be me, but Mnemosyne; you looked awfully cold-hearted and blood thirsty with your "Who're we killing today?" bit in the first post after Night two ended.

#249, Rikae you do a vote recap with the relevant posts.
I think you made a bit of a mistake there, as I don't recall "tying" Steve/Eonwe? and Sally to Gwath at all yesterDay - let alone in post #196. Maybe you confused me with phantom who did?

#259, Wilwa posts her thoughts on everyone, and will most likely vote for Mira or Mnemosyne with the possibility of Sally.
At first read, I thought Mira had written this post, so when she said she might vote for herself - I was like... o.O Did someone just out themselves?

#261. Rikae analyzes me. I had been referring to Hansy's ideas of the BQ trying to work with the village as a "hired gun", so as to live longer and to try for second place. It happens sometimes where Hansy, Shasta and I have played together, outside of the BD.

#265 - Lariren replies to Rikae. Says she might look at Hansy.
She can't see Fea doing such a thing.
----- I could see Fea doing such a thing like Hansy discussed. It doesn't seem to be so far fetched to me. Mainly because I recall Fea claiming seer for the fun/heck of it before. So if she is bold enough to do that, then what says she wouldn't do something just as crafty now? Though in this instance, I don't think it is as bluffing - her response and reasoning to what happened with the whole Han/Solo thing, seemed genuine. Does it make her clear of being a baddie or up to no good, because she is bold enough to do such things? No way.

This response Lari bugs me just a bit, because it seems that you are almost blinded to the ways of Fea. It would be like your gran holding onto an image of you as a child - thinking you could never do wrong.


I dare say I have probably crossposted with a bunch of people, having inadvertently taken a nap after picking my niece up from school.

Sheesh. X'd since Sally's #275

[Mnemosyne]

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

It might just be me, but Mnemosyne; you looked awfully cold-hearted and blood thirsty with your "Who're we killing today?" bit in the first post after Night two ended.

Oh, absolutely.

And suddenly everyone (for certain definitions of everyone) is voting Izzy.

I just reread her posts and she sounded thoroughly bland. I think the one with the best case against her is Nog and his "why did you vote and then just chill?"

Although I must admit that endDay can get so hairy it's sometimes better for your own sanity to do all you can, and then just sit and wait.

I'd love to hear some self-defense, Isabellkya.

[Isabellkya]

Continuing on....

#275 - Sally finds the 'glomping' of Gwath yesterDay by Phantom and Brin worrying.
----- What worries me about this post, is Sally's claiming of innocence - twice. It seems a bit overdone. She claims to be not evil, and innocent - she even says "not that you'll believe me, but hey". Well, to what purpose are you claiming innocence twice in one post; when you haven't really posted much at all?

#279 - Nog might vote Phantom for his response to Durelin. Likes how he plays, but thinks he actually has reasons to suspect him.

#280 - Nog is ready to vote for Kath, but if there is a bigger post coming, he won't.
Sally and Brin bother him - Sally for her vote and Brin for her carefulness and agreeability.
Dury is too straightforward to be a baddie.
Rikae, his gut yells she is a baddie. He will have to reconsider voting for phantom.

#281 - phantom claims to be an obsessive self-defender

#282 Nog doesn't like Mira's vote tally seven minutes prior to DL, then not voting.
He doesn't like my seeming unconcern after I voted roughly twenty minutes prior to DL, then "hung around".
----- Did I feel easy at the time I was voting and through to the DL?
Absolutely not. I didn't think Gwath was even going to be lynched. When I saw phantom and Brin bring out the save votes at the end, I said a word that isn't appropriate to post on the thread. I stick by my vote, sorry Gwath. I would rather place my vote on someone who I am unsure and have doubts about, as opposed to rolling a die between others who I had not looked into.

#284 - Mnemosyne is pleased with Nog's voting of Izz.
Is bothered by Brin's vote from yesterDay.

#285 - Kath makes a list of possibly guilt, possibly not, and no idea from Day one.
----- What do you mean by Mnemosyne "a little leaping on the bandwagon-esque, not sure about this."?

#287 - Mnemosyne going to start with looking at Brin.
#288 - [b]Mnemosyne[/b[ would like to see more of Brin.
----- Is it Brin's vote from yesterDay that made you start looking with her? If it is, it seems that Brin went from "bothering you" to "less suspicious". DO you mind elaborating on it?

#290 - Kath makes a list of people for toDay.
---- Why does your reasoning for voting for me, look very similar to that of Nog's? It looks quite contradictory to me. You say that I have not been as "original" as past games, yet you do this. Mind elaborating?

It seems to me that the reasoning behind the votes - are not being original as usual, for understanding Hansy and my voting of Gwath.

In a general response. I don't think I am ever original in ideas; in werewolf you really can't be. Because the game has been around for years, and I've only been a part of it for a relatively short amount of time. If you think I have in previous games, I thank you - but reject the "praise"; as I don't believe anyone can truly be original nowadays. Because by this time, actually seeing something "new" is quite few and very far between. In regards to Hansy, I don't really know what else to say on the matter - other than what I've already said. With Gwath, I'll point upwards in the post, to my response to Nog.


I'm going to take a short break now, my hand is threatening to cease functioning.


X'd with Mnemosyne and Mirandir after my #298.

[Mirandir]

Okay, so I'm gonna finish reading and then go do my massive amount of homework.

Originally Posted by Kath

Mirandir - wants Fea lynched. Well thus far she's not said a lot but I'm sure a few posts further in I'll be agreeing! Says he won't vote newbies, fair enough.

Actually, I said I was going to vote Gwath in order to not lynch Fea.

Originally Posted by Kath

Mirandir - says she would have voted Gwath to save Fea, useful to know, would be nice to know why she wanted to save Fea.

I explained in the post where I said I was probably going to vote Hansy why I don't want to lynch Hansy, Fea, or the phantom quite yet. They're too valuable to have around to kill so early on and offer good insights even when they are evil.

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Mirandir seems utterly clueless. Sorry, dear. Please don't poison me Wednesday when you cook dinner for me while I'm in class. Innocent. Or at least, not radar-lighting evil.

No brownies for you.

Okay, seriously doing homework now.

[Mnemosyne]

Just read through Lari's posts.

No red flags, but some very bright yellow ones!

On the one hand, the Nog vote doesn't seem to be particularly evil, though I have to disagree with her philosophy: you can poke holes in analysis! You can't poke holes in silence or vagueness!

The very vague list of yesterDay: seems fairly ordo-ish, again, but I'm used to thinking of baddies as holding strong opinions.

ToDay she's done little more than defend yesterDay's vote, and then defend not defending it.

Before that, there was Queen spec and also some engaging of Hansy's meta-type questions. Which are fun but ultimately do not help out the game that much.

So, basically, she's been quiet, rather unhelpful, and non-commital.

I still want to look at the other players I've listed above, but I am seriously considering voting her at the moment.

[Lariren Shadow]

Fea and I finished the bio homework and this is me not reading my Ireland homework(from a book that is horrible).

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

So, basically, she's been quiet, rather unhelpful, and non-commital.

I also haven't been around much so I haven't had much to comment on. I just went through all the posts and now have something to say. I can't really be helpful if I'm not here.

So list:

Mira: Hasn't been here much either. Has said some interesting things, but nothing that much. Defended what she did yesterDay and explained the vote situation. Not sure anything is suspicious there. I want to see more out of her, but right now there isn't anything that's saying she's evil at all.

Durelin: I agree with her about the voting. Yes, we should not play favorites and I would vote Fea or Mira(even at the risk of not getting brownies either) if I thought they were guilty. I can't really get much else of a read on her though. I would like to see her analysis.

Fea: I can't get a firm read on her. I read her posts once and think "oh she's innocent" and then I read them again and think "wow, she's evil". I can't get a good read. I can tell she was frustrated yesterDay, but other than that I can't tell if she lies more evil or more good(and that looks horrible and sounds horrible in a sentence).

Izzy: I don't know what to think of all the accusations against her. I can see where some of them are coming from, but I'm not sure how to look at them. She hasn't really responded to some of the accusations, but more like made her own. I think she needs to be looked at and that she doesn't look that innocent.

the phantom: I would like to know some of his suspicions because they generally make sense. I don't think he's guilty(though earlier I did come up with this: "tp is cleaning. Cleaning is evil. By the transitive property of equality tp is evil." but then thought better of actually posting it as a reason). His posts seem to lean more innocent sounding.

Brinn: Was pessimistic at the beginning of the Day. Either this is an ordo lamenting about things or its a wolf trying to look innocent. I want to hear more out of her, but I'm more leaning towards the wolf rather than not at this point.

Sally: I have no idea. Honestly I don't think I've ever been able to get a good read on her ever.

Wilwa: Is looking more towards being innocent every time I look at her. Her vote seems innocent enough.

Rikae: Is another one that I can't read. I was convinced last game she was guilty and she's acting in the same way. But she turned out to be innocent. I'm not sure what to make of her at all. I might need to think about her more and see what I can come up with.

Eonwe(Steve): I'm not going to vote him toDay. Let him recover.

Nog: He seems more innocent looking toDay. Not completely innocent, but more than he did yesterDay and enough more that I wouldn't want to vote him again because he does seem to be asking the right questions and getting to the right points.

Mnemi: Looking at her again, I think she comes out more innocent than anything else.

Kath: Epic posts of epicness. It looks rather safe. I can also see that maybe it was to sort of prove that she has been paying attention and try to get the vote off of her for not being around. It doesn't make bad points.

Hansy: I tried to go back through his posts. I just kept getting more confused. I know others like the way he thinks but I don't. I don't know if its me or what but I don't like his logic at times. Not at all.

It looks like I'm going to probably pick between voting Hansy or Brinn, mostly because I seem to have such a hard time reading most everyone else.

And I was wondering this, and its probably a stupid question, but does the cobbler get to contact the wolves in anyway in this game? I'm just wondering because in the two others I've played here the cobbler has done that...this probably should have been asked yesterDay.

Edit: x-posted since post 304

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'm thinking...

And it would make sense to me if Nog was the cobbler. It would explain why he has spent so much time yammering on about something that nobody else thought was worth the bother: he's trying to cause a scene.

Now don't take this as an accusation, more like a hypothetical... I'm thinking aloud...

It would just sort of explain it. So basically, for Nog I'm thinking that he's either the cobbler trying to cause a scene, or he's ordinary and just can't help it.

I don't want to vote for a mere pawn when so much is at stake every end of Day, so I shan't vote Noggins.

The trouble is, I know what roles I think people don't have, but that still leaves a bunch of possibilities for what they might be. It doesn't do much to narrow down my wolf-suspects.

I already said that I don't think the following are Black:

Nog
the phantom
Mira
Rikae
Sally
Lari
Wilwa

That leaves the following as possibles:

Kath
Durelin
Izzy
Brinn
Steve
Mnemo
Hansy

I'm going to think in a tangent for a bit...

I'd like to get the Black Queen early, because killing xer stops the double kills, but it's hardest to track somebody who has no allies by nature.

I'll satisfy myself by wolf-hunting, hoping that we catch xer by accident, or that the wolves get xer at Night. That would be ideal, really... It would be convenient as all heck of the BQ picked a wolf to die the same time the wolves picked xer. The village would be down two baddies at once, without losing any of themselves.

I just had some thoughts about Night dynamics between the BQ and the Wolves, but they're really disorganized and all hypothetical anyway. Mostly I was trying to think of how the Rangers impact behavior at Night. I settled on the assumption that the Black Ranger would want to alternate between protecting the Hunter and the Seer, xer cohorts.

The Black Ranger can't protect the same player twice in a row, but the White Ranger can't protect the same player twice.

This makes me kind of nervous, and very curious. I'd hate to have the role of White Ranger in this game, because how do you choose? Do you protect the person you think will be attacked? Or do you gamble and hold onto your ability to protect that person later in the game, when it might make or break everything? What happens if you get down near the end and your only available protect option is a known wolf?

I'll need to think about this more, to see if anything useful will come of my thoughts on the matter.

In a role heavy game, everything matters.

But back to my voting...

Since I think everybody but these people is White, it kind of forces the assumption that the Blacks are in this group:

Kath
Durelin
Izzy
Brinn
Steve
Mnemo
Hansy

Four out of seven. I've got more than a fifty fifty shot, as long as I'm accurate about who I think is innocent, at picking a bad guy out of this group.

The problem is, "not innocent" doesn't mean I have any idea of actual role.

Gah. I'm probably wrong about this stuff anyway.

I just want to go to bed...

I'm not voting Steve, because he RLdied.

I'm not voting Brinn or Kath because my suspicion of them is more of a lack of comfort than a distinct suspicion.

Dury, Izzy, Mnemo, or Hansy.

Hansy and Mnemo are still quite new, so my suspicion of them might be based entirely on them trying to get a footing in terms of actual Barrowdowns Werewolf playing experience. For that, I'll leave them alone.

And now I'm left to wonder, how did I end up crossing off everybody but Dury and Izzy when like two posts ago I said that I really didn't think Izzy was all that scary looking?

I give up at life.

++Izzy.

I don't trust my judgment on either her or Dury, but at least I'm not alone in systematically narrowing down my list of possibilities and reaching Iz at the end.