T-I-G LVI: Panic at the Prancing Pony

[Beregond]

I'm not feeling very confident, myself. I'm going to flog my "math skills" to make myself feel better.

While I'm not trying to defend Brinn, lets remember that likelihood isn't everything. If Lommy made up her seer list, and picked one villager for each of four nights, then in simple terms the chances of her picking the seer is 4 out of 19 - a 21% chance. Not bad, really. The chances of Brinn picking Lommy on day one, obviously, are higher.

Lommy revealed first, leaving Brinn with few choices than to do something to confuse us all and make us think twice about who is really the seer. She's done that quite well, and her seer list seems to jive with what she's said in the game previously. As does Lommy's, I think.