T-I-G LVI: Panic at the Prancing Pony

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Yes, you didn't explain it well because that makes no sense to me. You find me more honest, but would rather trust Lommy?

No I was talking merely about the ways you two revealed. In general I trust Lommy more than you because I find it rather easier to see you as a baddie than her.
Plus, I doubt a baddie who is practically not at all suspected would pretend to be the seer. Yeah to draw out the real seer, but I doubt it. And to be honest, I'm not sure Lommy would do it even if she was the cobbler. It just doesn't seem like something she would do without any provocation.

edit: xed with Legate. What difference would it make? The seer would know in the morning anyway that Frodo was a wraith.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

edit: xed with Legate. What difference would it make? The seer would know in the morning anyway that Frodo was a wraith.

It makes a difference. If it is so, it makes it clear that Sally is not Frodo by any means. Because neither of our Seers mentioned Sally as being a RB - they both said she is a Wraith.

So it seems (if it indeed was so) that Sally tried to confuse us by making us think she was Frodo. Where she wasn't. (So once again, I may take back what I said above I am really brilliant in this game, seemingly.)

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

It makes a difference. If it is so, it makes it clear that Sally is not Frodo by any means. Because neither of our Seers mentioned Sally as being a RB - they both said she is a Wraith.

Oh yes. I just didn't realise you were talking about sally & our seers and not the RB role in general.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Yep. Okay, whatever.

We vote

++Sally

aka the Wraith from the beginning,

whereas we may take a look at her posting and try to find out if there are "friends" of hers to be found based on the interaction.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Oh, and another reason why I don't believe Brinn. Not only she is so lucky that she happens to be a Seer when Lommy just called her a Wraith, but also she was soo lucky again to dream of Lommy on first Night! To dream of the Wraith who just called her a Seer. Lucky indeed, eh? This is so rusty.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Oh, and another reason why I don't believe Brinn. Not only she is so lucky that she happens to be a Seer when Lommy just called her a Wraith, but also she was soo lucky again to dream of Lommy on first Night! To dream of the Wraith who just called her a Seer. Lucky indeed, eh? This is so rusty.

Oh sorry. I take it back. Brinn actually said she dreamt of her as an Ordo, thereby coming to the conclusion that she is Ferny. Oh my, what's wrong with me?!? Really. Somebody else than just me should post, or I will only make a mess again.

(However, still it is lucky for Brinn to dream of Lommy. So many random chances? Does that even happen?)

[Aganzir]

Legate, for one time in your life you're funny.

I always find it rather a coincidence that there are two seers. Some day when I'm a wolf I want to try revealing before the real seer and see which one is believed. It would also be funny to mod a game with two of each gifted and no one knowing about it.

[Beregond]

I'm not feeling very confident, myself. I'm going to flog my "math skills" to make myself feel better.

While I'm not trying to defend Brinn, lets remember that likelihood isn't everything. If Lommy made up her seer list, and picked one villager for each of four nights, then in simple terms the chances of her picking the seer is 4 out of 19 - a 21% chance. Not bad, really. The chances of Brinn picking Lommy on day one, obviously, are higher.

Lommy revealed first, leaving Brinn with few choices than to do something to confuse us all and make us think twice about who is really the seer. She's done that quite well, and her seer list seems to jive with what she's said in the game previously. As does Lommy's, I think.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Legate

So it seems (if it indeed was so) that Sally tried to confuse us by making us think she was Frodo.

Of course she's trying to confuse us. She's a wraith who's just been exposed. My best advice is to not listen to anything she has to say.

Originally Posted by Legate

Oh, and another reason why I don't believe Brinn. Not only she is so lucky that she happens to be a Seer when Lommy just called her a Wraith, but also she was soo lucky again to dream of Lommy on first Night! To dream of the Wraith who just called her a Seer. Lucky indeed, eh? This is so rusty.

This is hardly a valid argument. First, I never called her a wraith. Secondly, why not dream of Lommy? Is she that unusual for a seer pick? Anyways if I were a wraith, wouldn't I have chosen to make my life much easier by claiming I hadn't dreamt of her and she could either be a cobbler or wraith? I'm not choosing to make my claim look more doubtful. I dreamt of Lommy because in last several games we've played, she's managed to deceive me. Lommy is some who has a tendency to look innocentish and I wanted to be sure she wasn't a wraith.

EDIT: Okay, I see your correction. Fair enough, as we all make mistakes. But I still hold to the second half of my argument.

Gotta go to class now..