Werewolf LIII: The Republic

[Brinniel]

I've decided to attempt a monstrous task and analyse Aganzir's death:

Day 1

Aganzir's comments on players:

++Brinniel for rep

Because I agree with her that the less reps there are, the more room for errors, and because she's a player who is generally trustworthy although I always find her so suspicious, and because she probably won't be the centre of attention.

I don't like it how Lommy seems to exaggerate things that seem rather small to me.

Lommy. I know I tend to suspect her, especially on the first days. And to me she almost always seems overreactive and suspicious. But it happening always is not an excuse for me to put her in the Neither cathegory so she's happily here again.

Shasta. Don't really understand where that phantom-Boro-Legate triangle came from. It reminds me a bit of Nerwolf's "their interaction makes me think there might be a wolf involved" in some game ages ago.

phantom. He doesn't give any bad vibes although I am perfectly aware that he could appear innocent even if a wolf. For the sake of my sanity I'm not going to concentrate on him for now, I am sure others will do it more than enough anyway.

Brinn. I agree with her that there shouldn't be very few reps. I'm feeling pretty good about her now that I saw her response to my question why she voted me.

Boro amuses me a lot. He looks innocent and I find myself agreeing with him on several things, but it was the same last time I played with him, and he was a wolf. I'm wary of him based on those past experiences, but I find him more innocent than not for the time being.

Nog. I won't concentrate on him now, either. Although he has posted a lot, I have hard time trying to get a read on him.

Greenie. It's always difficult for me to form an opinion on her. Somehow I'm a bit uneasy as to why she followed me so quickly on voting Brinn for a rep. Not that it was necessarily suspicious, it just seemed too easy.

Nerwen. If it was anyone but Nerwen, I could say I was a bit more inclined to consider her innocent.

The result is that I suspect Lommy and it annoys me because I feel I suspect her just because of the way she is. I also find myself unable to compare this Lommy to any Lommy I know from the previous games. However I wouldn't probably suspect her half as much if not for those carefully self-consciously careless trying-to-say-nothing-or-at-least-sound-normal answers. They vaguely remind me of the pathetic Dueling Wizards wolf me who was trying to avoid suspicion and accusations when they kept piling on me.

I don't know what to do with Lommy.

I didn't find the Gil-Shasta quarrel suspicious. I think that's the way Shasta usually is, which doesn't indicate anything, while Gil looked pretty innocentish.

++Lynch Legate

Because I couldn't decide between him and Eönwë and his way of posting annoys me more. This means that Eönwë has just been saved from receiving two votes and he could thank me by posting a detailed list of his suspicions tomorrow.

What players commented about Aganzir:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Agan - Looks more innocent than not, even if there was not much in her two posts. She's one I wouldn't like to see go this early anyway as I know she can be an asset to the village when having more time and losing one of those on Day1 is always sad.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Though I could also consider Aganzir who also makes wise choices, at least when she's innocent. I usually can get a good read off of her though this time not so much since she's only posted twice (what's up with that?). But voting her as rep would be one way to get a better read of her.

Originally Posted by Shasta

I should probably vote now, just on the off chance that rehearsal runs long. So without further ado...

++ Aganzir for Representative

Originally Posted by Sally

Agan: always a wolf. Always.

Originally Posted by Sally

My original rep choice was going to be Noggie, followed by Phantom, Agan, and Legate in no particular order.

Originally Posted by Boromir

Agan seems pretty genuine in her first post. I would like to go with her as my rep, but have some questions as far as her involvement in the next 24-hour period. Hmm...doubt she'll be back before this 1st period ends.

Originally Posted by Brinn

++Aganzir for rep

Because unlike Shasta, she has one vote and I continue to think we'd be better off with more reps than less.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Then, another thoght... voting someone as a rep is surely a great way of buddying up fellow villagers. That's why the Agan-Brinn and Legate-phantom "alliances" make me wonder... I mean, of course it's just natural too to reward trust with trust and one is subconsciously inclined to trust someone that trusts them and blah blah blah, but such vote exchanges are curious. I'm not sure what to think about them.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Aganzir - pretty silent, but RL hurries are RL hurries. She seemed to be rather tense, but she herself said she was not having a good day... so I won't judge anything either way yet. I'm looking forward to see what she's going to do as a rep...

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Aganzir for Brinniel. I'd agree with her that Brinn seems sensible, but what does she mean by saying she's "usually trustworthy"?

Originally Posted by Boromir

Agan is calling on her true form, that's good to see, but I will go back and look at this Lommy-Agan back-and-forth, or whatever you want to call it.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Agan - Her case on Lommy seems somewhat fabricatied. Though I agree with her that Lommy was exaggerating when talking about our trust in Brinn, I'm not convinced that it's a good reason for suspicion. Neither do I see anything suspicious in Lommy's filibuster post. Her first post toDay looked innocentish, but the whole Lommy-thing makes me wonder.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Honestly, Aganzir's suspicions strike me as rather forced. I think she's merely trying to grasp any kind of behaviour she can call suspicious and make a horrible mess out of it. And she claims I'm exaggerating. How rude. Simply put, I don't think her behaviour looks like hunting wolves, it looks like hunting supicious behaviour. I cannot phrase it so that it makes any more sense, but I hope at least someone can understand that.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Aganzir - No alarms, I'm glad to see she's here today.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The row between Aganzir and Lommy. Argumentwise I'd say Agan looks the more innocent one, feelingwise I think Lommy looks the more innocent (she felt genuinely frustrated - although a wolf might feel the frustration as well to be sure). So I just can't avoid the idea that it's two innocents tearing each other apart.

Originally Posted by tp

Aganzir... she's either playing well as a WW or she's innocent. So I'd like to give her a pass for today.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Aganzir - argues innocentishly

Originally Posted by Boromir

Agan, you made a case against Lommy. Have the spine to admit it. You listed Lommy as guilty and have gone after her, that's a case. Don't try to play it off like you really didn't mean anything by quoting Lommy repeatedly, post after post, and play it off like Lommy is being over-defensive.

And now you're backing off, after a couple people say Lommy is looking genuinely frustrated (i.e. makes her look innocent)? Trying to seperate yourself from someone you wanted to get lynched?

Originally Posted by Rune

You are right that Aganzir posted plenty, infact she posted so much that it could seem like unauthorized filibustering.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Aganzir: Nothing about her rings any alarms. Is it just me or does seem she and Lommy always fight in WW games together? Anyway, whatever's between them, I think it's ordo-on-ordo.

Day 2

Aganzir's comments about players:

In my opinion Lommy's frustration looked more innocent than wolfish. Maybe I underestimate her but I believe she would have got rather jumpier if she's a wolf.

Of these Ilya's reaction seems the most suspicious to me.

If Lommy's a wolf, I could see Boro's reaction as wolfish as well since he attacked me for attacking Lommy. On the other hand it's also possible that he just wanted to try me so as to see if I broke under the pressure. But I have a bit hard time trying to see his reaction as honest - it looked like he was up to something.

My suspicion list is now as follows (in no particular order):
Ilya
Eönwë
Greenie
Lommy (not that I'm actively suspecting her, I just want to keep an eye on her)
Nog (keeping an eye on him until I have time to go through his posts)
Nerwen (I agree with morm's latest about her - planning to go through her posts when I have time anyway)

++Boro for rep

I really have no time to think about it more now and I trust him.

I can agree with Lommy that Ilya has looked much more innocent today. However I have no idea if that is because her fellows have had a chance to give her advice in the night or if she's just got more used to the game. Her defense and the reasons she gave for the things she did look pretty genuine though, and she kept her cool pretty well even when accused.

I think Nerwen doesn't look very suspicious apart from her reaction to morm, which could be that of an innocent as well. So I'm pretty much at a loss now, because at the same time I know she's capable of all sorts of nasty things and I just wouldn't want to stop suspecting her like this, just to be on the safe side.

I didn't really care if Brinn is innocent or not, although I do feel quite good about her right now. And if she's a wolf, her behaviour and interaction with others will hopefully reveal something after her death, so it doesn't even matter that much if a wolf got to be a rep on day 1.

I am feeling better also about Eönwë now, and there's yet another person I'm unlikely to vote today. He's a bit weird at times, but mostly he comes across as pretty genuine.

Guilty
Nerwen. Okay, her speculation about Cab's death and reaction to Ilya & Brinn's reactions is suspicious, plus her fierce defense of herself.
Nog. Still want to read his posts at some point.

Innocent
Boro. I am worried about my trust in him because he has completely fooled me before but I agree with him quite a lot, so he's here for now.
Brinn
Gil
Lommy
Kath
Rune
Shasta
phantom

Neither
Eönwë. Could go either way. Now it's rather indecisiveness on my part than lack of information.
Greenie. I'm planning to review her posts as well at some point.
Gwath
Ilya. I'm really undecided about her right now.
morm. He looks quite innocent. When I was reading through day 1 during the night after it, an inexplicable thought "morm's a wolf" just suddenly occurred to me. I agree with him on a lot things he says. I'm worried I seem to trust him so much. So frankly, I have no idea.
sally
Ka, another one I should review.

++ lynch Nerwen

Players' comments on Aganzir:

Originally Posted by morm

As for my possible reps today those who I trust and have shown enough dedication are:
Agan
Boro
Brinn
Nog

Originally Posted by tp

Aganzir- I thought her Rep vote was straightforward. Her accusations have good reasoning, and her attack on Lommy was understandable (in my reread, early Lommy looked guilty to me too). And then Agan backed off her (exactly the way I found Lommy less guilty later).

Originally Posted by tp

And good to see Agan. Speak your mind, dearie, for today I trust you.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Aganzir - her case against me was weak and I dislike her flip-flopping on Legate. However, now that I'm not annoyed anymore, my gut-feeling of her would be rather innocent.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Aganzir - She no longer gives me innocent vibes so she belongs in this category. I don't know why, maybe it's because she seems more tense and more stressed than usual.

Originally Posted by morm

I will continue to be around on and off for the rest of the day (RL), I should be around most of tomorrow (RL) but perhaps a bit more intermitent. Anyway I am going to vote for Aganzir as my Rep because a lot of her suspects are those who I suspect, namely Nerwen being the top. I would like my rep to vote the way I feel and since I have a greater degree of trust in Agan than many others it's a satisfactory match for my vote.

++Aganzir for Rep

Originally Posted by Rune

Aganzir: Tells Little Green to“Elaborate on more tense and more stressed than usual.” I actually think this is an unfair question, LG was not making a massive case against Aganzir. . . She was giving an overview about how she felt about the different people and in such a case you judge also on the feel that you get from the post, something that is often in describable. Now if LG had attacked Aganzir and was confident that she was a wolf, then she would have to elaborate.
Anyways this seems to be Aganzir’s style and I must say it annoys me a great deal.

Originally Posted by Ilya

Aganzir - I still have this gut thing against Agan, although at the time I think her posts were running together with Legate in my head, and the thing with Lommy seems more harmless than not. However, I do not like the implication she made about a rep not voting and irresponsibility today (521). These aren't sacred offices or anything but reps do have an obligation. As to throwaway votes, it's not a bad way for a shy wolf to act - everything's all tied up, so I'm just gonna go Nader. Or, you know, the phantom and his brand of jokery. I guess, in short, voting is important, and anyone who says otherwise bothers me.

Originally Posted by Boromir

++Aganzir for rep

Originally Posted by tp

I have less of an idea about where she stands, so I'd feel safer going with Agan (as far as her lynching someone I'd like lynched), but if you're leaning towards making Agan a Rep already yourself then I'd like to give Kath a shot and see what she does. At the least I do feel that she is innocent.

Originally Posted by Rune

Aganzir: Her way of tracking wolves and posting annoys me. Also I have trouble telling apart what is just “normal” Aganzir and what is suspicious, so I would also like her to go simply to make my life easier. Also I don’t get why it is much more suspicious to say you’re a newbie in subtle way, than doing it straight forward. (ok Boromir just explained it, I don’t know what to make of it)

Originally Posted by Kath

Agan - she is very, very determined this game. Thing is I do play with Agan a fair amount and yet she always seems slightly separate somehow. I don't have any understanding of her usual style of play. Is this ... well, almost persecution of a person like with Lommy normal with her?

Originally Posted by Shasta

Lommy and Aganzir also feel good.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Aganzir is as vibrant as ever.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Now, I don't think I'm being biased... Aganzir is being very erratic, and doesn't seem to feel the need to explain. I don't know what it means, since it seems too clumsy for an Aganwolf... but it's not something I can ignore either.

Originally Posted by Boromir

Anyway, my thoughts, are Agan's harmless. Unless you're a wolf, because she's a pretty intense investigator and interrogator.

Edit: P.S. Oh great, I probably just signed Agan's death warrant now. Sorry my lady.

---------------------------

Ouch. All those quotes can hurt your head after awhile.

Thoughts:

It seems yesterDay Aganzir was suspected by half and considered innocent by another half, and several others placed her somewhere in between. She's obviously not a no-trace kill since she left plenty of posts with substance.

I think suspected seerism is likely. Perhaps the wolves thought she was a seer who dreamt of Lommy on Night 2. After all, on Day 1 she at first suspects Lommy then says she'd like to keep an eye on her. And the next Day she suddenly finds her innocent. Or it's possible she was killed to set someone up. Though I think the former is more likely. Which means I think Lommy's probably innocent.

[Nerwen]

Thanks, Brin.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Thoughts:

It seems yesterDay Aganzir was suspected by half and considered innocent by another half, and several others placed her somewhere in between. She's obviously not a no-trace kill since she left plenty of posts with substance.

I think suspected seerism is likely. Perhaps the wolves thought she was a seer who dreamt of Lommy on Night 2. After all, on Day 1 she at first suspects Lommy then says she'd like to keep an eye on her. And the next Day she suddenly finds her innocent. Or it's possible she was killed to set someone up. Though I think the former is more likely.

Or both; I rather think the wolves are multi-tasking. I expected to find Agan dead toDay, and I hadn't even seen the significance of her switch on Lommy. You're probably right about the Seer-hint, though.

EDIT: fixed quotes.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Ilya

Wherein you do a triplebluff where we all expect that you know that we know that you knew Agan was a formidible anti-wolf force, so you know you that someone would call you on it so you know to say that that's obviously what the wolves know, even though you know that's what we know.

Honestly, this is what y'all sound like sometimes.

I definitely know the feeling.

It seems now is the time of Day when only me and Nerwen are around... I've read everything quickly through, but have to digest a bit - I've read, what, three and a half pages today and feel a bit baffled still.

If I had the time I'd love to have a good look on the Eönwë lynch. I'll be off soon, but will be back probably in several hours, and will most definitely have a list by then. I had some comments about yesterDay but forgot them. Gosh, I must seem horribly confused.

Overall impressions:
- I'm glad to have seen more of Sally. She seems innocentish this far.
- Agan's kill can lead to a myriad directions, I'd love to have a better look at it too. (It seems I already have loads of stuff I'd like to have a look at...)
- I'm torn about Nerwen. The problem isn't the classic no read -problem, but a problem of having both innocent and suspicious vibes about her. She's a one I'll definitely have a look at if I have the time. (See? SEE?)
- I don't trust Ilya. I don't right know where I got that assumption from. Suppose I have to look at it ()...

Like I said, I'll be back in some hours, hopefully with more substance. I have no time to start doing anything real, so this crappy post is all you'll get of me for now. More coming in time. And that's a promise.

[A Little Green]

Unless... Nerwen, are you still around? I'll be leaving in a bit less than twenty minutes, but if you are here we could have a little (green) chat.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by phantom, to Boro

4) The Seer has almost certainly checked us by now.

Why do you think so? Or rather, it's somewhat obvious what the reasoning behind that is, the question is what makes you reason that way? (Oh, and it wasn't me who complained about complicated sentences, was it? ) My, that question really is horrible. If you don't get what it means (I'm almost ready to call you genius if you get it), then just answer the original question. Sorry to be so unclear. Just too little sleep, you know...

[A Little Green]

Hee-hee, quadruple posting! Hooray! ...except that this last post is just to say that I'm going now and leaving the computer to Lommy. I'll go and have a nap now before returning to school. Post a lot while I'm gone, will you, dearies?

[Nerwen]

Yes, I'm here.

EDIT: x'd with two Greenies. So you're going. Well, 'bye then.

[Thinlómien]

My first reaction to all that's happened was: "WHAT?!?"

Not because I'm particularily surprised to see Agan go (and revealed innocent after all...) or anything. But the reactions to her death are most baffling.

Boro's "ooh see they tried to frame me" looks just so false. I don't think Agan's death points at Boro especially, so he just seems to be exaggerating way too much.

Also, Nerwen's laconic words

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, that was predictable.

strike me as fishy. I cannot see the kill as that predictable. I mean, I'm not surprised to see Agan go but I didn't expect it either. Nerwen's reaction looks like the classic wolf mistake of supposing their kill was more obvious than it actually was. (On the other hand, all this criticims towards her comment also looks like the classic mistake of taking one random comment too seriously... )

Ilya's overreacting too, but in her case it looks the most innocent. She's still rather new to this game after all, and her feelings sound genuine-ish.

I will be back in some hours and will post more. I want to talk about the tp-Boro issue for it certainly deserves some criticism...

[Nerwen]

Let me explain.

When Boro did that little bit about "signing Agan's death-warrant", and tp joined in by proclaiming that if Agan died he would go after Boro, I thought it looked like a set-up.

I guessed that either

a.) they were innocents trying to sick the wolves onto Agan because they'd both independently decided that she wasn't the Seer and might become a lynch-candidate... in which case the wolves might well take a look at her and decide that yes, she looked appetising.

or

b.) they were guilty and were going to kill Agan and then make the above claim.

So I thought there was a good chance Aganzir was going to get it.

EDIT: word left out.