Tol-in-Gaurhoth L: Battle of the Fandoms

[Boromir88]

Starting with the shorter one

McCaber

Day 1: He pretty much echoes the feelings of the village. He does say I look innocent, because he doesn't think a wolf would stir that much controversy in the beginning.

Brin seems a little off to me, as does the Captain. Gwath and Mac both look fine by me.

So, he notes CoD feels a little off. And in his other post for the day, he votes for CoD.

I have to go soon, so here's my semirandom vote:

++CaptainofDespair

for cryptic remarks and other general nonsense.

As others have noted, if there was a wolf-on-wolf vote, I think McCaber's looks to be the most likely. It's early enough, it would make a wolf look good, and there wasn't a strong reason (at that time) to believe CoD would be lynched.

Day 2:

Says Gwath looks innocent, and that he certainly talks a lot.

Says he doesn't know what to think about me.

Something possibly interesting:

On my "possibly, nay, probably a werewolf" list goes Nogrod, for an attempt to bandwagon away from a wolf, along with Sally.

Suspects Nogrod and Sally. So, McCaber picks up on CoD and sally, two known wolves...hmm

Yeah, I really don't like the way sally posted yesterDay, what with the "suspicion" of the Captain in quite a lot of posts but her vote trying to lead away from his death. (Old news, I know, but I just woke up. Give me a break.)

Agrees with the reasoning against sally, that her suspect and then defense of CoD looks strange. Later in the post, he said between Gwath and Nogrod, he would rather vote the latter, but believes both of them are innocent just looking for wolves in the wrong places.

Day 2, votes for sally

2 wolves in 2 days. Impressive instincts. Not unlikely, but as Mith would always caution me when we were both wolves, don't make it look like you're completely certain about everything. Plus with the focus on Nogrod and Gwath, perhaps McCaber felt safe about voting for wolf-partner sally, and again it would make him look good.

As another interesting observation, on Day 2 Rikae votes for McCaber.

Day 3:

I still think that the Day 1 voting record is the best to find a wolf. I'm going to take a closer look at those who tried to save the Captain at the last minutes. I know that includes sally, but I'm not sure who else.

Again mentions sally for her attempt to save CoD.

So I'm still convinced that sally is a wolf, but the only other late distracters were Nogrod for Gwath and Boro for Lal. And I'm pretty sure both of them are innocent.

If only sally gave me more to analyze. And I'm still not sure why Lal and Rikae have harped on me as a suspect. I just don't really get their arguments.

Continues to go after sally, if only she "gave me more to analyze." That looks strange, are you trying to find a reason to get out of voting for the wolf sally?

In post 360 he says Nogrod and I are probably innocent. Nerwen, Sally, or Rikae are probably wolves, and Lal is the cobbler.

remarks about Fea's seer revelation:

For some reason I am so tempted to contradict you, but it would serve no purpose. Ah well.

Either Fea is a wolf, or the last wolf didn't believe Fea's seer revelation (or maybe the last wolf thought Fea would get the ranger protection). Anyway, McCaber makes the point that he doesn't really believe Fea.

umm...

++sally

nothing if not consistent.

Ends up being the 2nd vote for sally (puts her in the early lead). Still, a rather safe, early vote. It would make McCaber look good, if sally is lynched, but with all the stir between myself, Mith, and Lal, maybe he thought sally was safe.

And this just doesn't sit right with me, today (from post 451)

So are we finally clear that Mac and Iare innocent? Good.

McCaber comes out and attaches himself to Mac. Both he and Mac voted for wolves twice (McCaber voted for sally two days in a row). But this just seems like he's trying to push the fact that he and Mac are finally "proven" innocent, when really neither of them are.

I'm not liking the look of McCaber, he could have extremely good instincts in this game, but this just looks like he's too certain about everything. Not just who the wolves are but who he thinks are innocent. He felt I was "likely" innocent, he pointed out Gwath and Nogrod going after eachother, but felt both were two innocents looking for wolves in the wrong place.

Now, he comes out and forces the opinion that he's a "known" innocent (and Mac in the process). He's not a known innocent, and I don't like the look of it. I don't know what the wolf strategy was, but maybe with McCaber's style of being more quiet and reserved, plus a good voting record (3 wolves, 3 votes!) this was a strategy to make McCaber look as innocent as possible, and then he could slip into the background.

[Boromir88]

Triple-posting, I won't have time to look at Mac today, but with the wolves being wrong about Brin (being the seer). I'm going to look into Rikae's post to see if maybe the wolves thought she was the seer (as I made note of Rikae's vote for McCaber on Day 2).

Edit: Mac ruined my first ever attempt at a triple post.

[Boromir88]

Rikae

Day 1 votes sally.
Day 2 votes McCaber.
Day 3 goes back to sally.

Can't speak for the others (two of whom are high on my own suspicion list at the moment), but it's been easy for me to be consistent because no one seems to agree with me.

Could this be taken by the last wolf that Rikae is a seer trying to get people to listen to her?

I find Rikae's 306 post interesting, she puts herself on the naughty list:

Rikae - Naughty, as always, but not wolfishly or cobblerishly so (unless my right hand doesn't know what my left is doing ).

Could that be taken as a hint that Rikae was someone gifted? She's on the naughty list, but not wolf nor cobbler?

Notes she doesn't like Izzy's way of poking around.

Yep, I don't like the way Izzy hangs around the fringes of things, occasionally "poking" at someone as if in an attempt to see if she can get suspicions flowing that way.
That's one thing that was bugging me

And next post she votes for sally.

Izzy, McCaber, and sally make it on Rikae's wolf list. Rikae votes sally, sally ends up being a wolf. Did either Izzy or McCaber believe Rikae was then the seer?

I don't know if there's enough evidence to drum up against McCaber, but I have to go soon and I got a feeling either him or Izzy is the last wolf. Taking into account I don't like McCaber certainty (or his entire post 451)

And I figure that between the mob killings and the seer dreams we can kill/exonerate the five (or so) SPs (suspicious persons) remaining without much difficulty. I hope it doesn't come to that, though.

Seems a bit hasty to go after the 5 remaining "suspicious people," obviously you're off that list McCaber? I think it is McCaber. And this is so rough, because now is as good of a chance as any to finally get Lal out of the picture....

++McCaber

[Boromir88]

Oh and before I go, if anyone is still doubting my sincerity that I am not the cobbler. Why would I drum up a case against someone who is presumed innocent by everyone (McCaber) when I could try to steer people towards easier targets?

I seriously think McCaber's the last wolf, and it's been attempted to clear his name, slip under the radar. The only person who could counter that would be the seer. Rikae found McCaber and sally suspicious. Rikae ends up dead.

If you don't want to go for McCaber today, Nilp, I say check him out.

edit: bolding the names

[Nerwen]

Oh yes, I must have skimmed past this:

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Izzy, McCaber, and sally make it on Rikae's wolf list. Rikae votes sally, sally ends up being a wolf. Did either Izzy or McCaber believe Rikae was then the seer?

I don't know if there's enough evidence to drum up against McCaber, but I have to go soon and I got a feeling either him or Izzy is the last wolf. Taking into account I don't like McCaber certainty (or his entire post 451)

Seems a bit hasty to go after the 5 remaining "suspicious people," obviously you're off that list McCaber? I think it is McCaber. And this is so rough, because now is as good of a chance as any to finally get Lal out of the picture....

++McCaber

I read your analysis of McCaber, and I just thought it was an honest attempt to cover all bases, but now I see you actually voted him... on awfully thin grounds.

This thing about the wolves thinking Rikae was the Seer, because she mentioned Izzy, McCaber and Sally as guilty– with that premise that Izzy or McCaber is the last wolf– look, at least half the village has mentioned one of the three as a possible wolf at some point.

Had Rikae been the Seer, she couldn't have dreamed both wolves, or she would have told us, wouldn't she? The wolves would know this.

EDIT: X'd since my last post.

[Nogrod]

Izzy!

Check out my #486 and Mac's following one before voting and consider them. You could also look at Nerwen's last one...

If Nerwen is innocent we need her and Nilp can check her the next Night.

We've had enough hasty votes in this game even if everything has turned out well so far. Some mighty providence in the air?

[Nogrod]

To me it would be then either Fëa or Lal. If I'd have to vote right now I would go for Fëa as Lal's style of play would be a bit risky.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Had Rikae been the Seer, she couldn't have dreamed both wolves, or she would have told us, wouldn't she? The wolves would know this.

Exactly. Of course, you could argue if McCaber is a wolf and suspected Rikae to have her knowledge of Sally via a dream, he would have known for sure that he'd be next. But then again, he would have asked himself why she hadn't dreamt of him already (she seriously went after him on Day2, after Sally on Day3) and concluded that Rikae was just smart/lucky. He would have avoided killing her (and hoped she would just find somebody else to go after) to not frame himself.

[Isabellkya]

Well, I suppose I'll not vote for Nerwen and leave her in Nilp's hands.

Boro seems a throw a way vote to me, same for Lal since they are both so darn Cobblery.

Which leaves me with..

++Fea

X'ed since 494

[Macalaure]

Where am I?

Nerwen I suspect but won't vote for the reasons Nogrod gave above.
Fea I highly doubt is the wolf because of her (presumably) fake reveal. Cobbler maybe.
Boro is unlikely to be a wolf - again, possible cobbler.
Nilp is the seer (unless he's the cobbler).
Nogrod is proven innocent (").
McCaber I don't suspect.
Shasta is proven innocent (").
Mith might be a wolf, but I'd like to take a closer look tomorrow.
Izzy I'm not sure about. I'd like to take a closer look at her, too, before I'd want to vote for her.
Lal I have a hard time imagining as a wolf. Another possible cobbler.

May I abstain?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Don't vote for me! I might be irritating and unpredictable, but I'm ordinary (again. tragic. i pined when i learned it...).

++LALWENDE

Because enough other people suspect her that I'm willing to test the theory even though I'd prefer Boro go. But if Nilp dreams of Boro tonight and the Ranger (sorry to go against your orders, Nilp) protects Nilp...

[Nerwen]

The votes so far.

Nilp --> Lalwendë
Lal --> Boro
Boro --> McCaber
Shasta --> Nerwen
Isabellkya --> Fea.

A wide field.

EDIT: X'd since Isabellkya's vote. I see we've all been busy...

[Mithalwen]

Nerwen - Creepiest
Feanor of the Peredhil - Tweedledum
Boromir88 - Tweedledee
Nilpaurion Felagund - Seer soi-disant. No reason to doubt.
Nogrod - Seer named ordo
McCaber - Creepy but ...
Shastanis Althreduin - Seer named Ordo
Mithalwen - Self named Ordo
Isabellkya - can't writer her off quite despite that vote.
Lalwendë - Cobbler - de facto or actual
Macalaure - Perhaps ought to check my assumption of innocence to prevent self looking silly.....

[Nogrod]

Nilp -> Lalwendë
Lal -> Boro
Boro -> McCaber
Shasta -> Nerwen
Izzy -> Fëa
Fëa -> Lal2

X'd with at least one tally & others...

[Nogrod]

Nilp -> Lalwendë
Lal -> Boro
Boro -> McCaber
Shasta -> Nerwen
Izzy -> Fëa
Fëa -> Lal2
McCaber -> Boro2

Let's not lynch an innocent - even if possibly a cobbler - if we can go for a wolf...

I think Fëa might be the best choice (how come she suddenly emerged in the time of trouble for herself...)

[Boromir88]

Let's not lynch an innocent - even if possibly a cobbler - if we can go for a wolf...~Nogrod

If you don't want to go with my feelings on McCaber today so be it. But get the cobbler out of the way, and I'm asking you trust my instinct that it's Lal.

If I'm wrong, I'll vow one day of silence.

[Nogrod]

I mean I really don't understand your vote McCaber... I must agree with Boro here.

But if we leave Nerwen for toNight, then what say you? I suggest Fëa but it would require a few votes...

X'd with Boro and Nerwen...

[Isabellkya]

Here is where my head is at, at the moment.

"known" innocent:
Nog
Shasta
Nilp

Looks pretty innocent:
Mac
McCaber

Cobblery:
Boro
Lal
Fea


undecided:
Nerwen
Mith


So my vote will go to one accused of Cobblery, or I don't have a read on.

X'ed with Nog, Boro, Mac.