Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II

[mormegil]

I got to thinking a bit and I need some assurance from a few who have the time-line down better than I. Is there any chance that Durelin could be the last wolf? Was she de-wolfified the night that Rikae made her last pick? If so, and I think it was, then she is in the clear, if not, then we need to look at her. The reason this comes up in my mind, is it just seems odd that she is still alive.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by mormegil

I got to thinking a bit and I need some assurance from a few who have the time-line down better than I. Is there any chance that Durelin could be the last wolf? Was she de-wolfified the night that Rikae made her last pick? If so, and I think it was, then she is in the clear, if not, then we need to look at her. The reason this comes up in my mind, is it just seems odd that she is still alive.

Hmm... personally, I have also a little hockey in the dates, and the more the rules, so I simply went to believe what was thought to be right. But from what I collected, it was that she was de-wolved, then phantom asked her and the same day Rikae was dead, so there was no way for her to turn her back? I think she would have died, had she been targeted by Rikae the same Night as the one when she was de-wolved (that would be simply targetting by both wizards at the same Night, and there's the rule for that).

[Thinlómien]

Okay, I'm here.

Kath an ordo? Well... I can't say I'm surprised. I always guess wrong.

Gwath the ordo killed? Freaky. I was suspecting him a little, and some others were suspecting him even more, and I can't see how he'd been giving gifted vibes... He was possibly killed to confuse us, or for the very reason Sally says it's odd he was killed. If I was the last wolf and feeling at least relatively comfortable, I would indeed go sporty and kill off the one who won't be participating. More discussion in the village, nicer to play. I don't know how many others here would think the same way as I in this... possibly Roa or Legate?

Gwath's kill kind of points to Roa and like morm very smartly noted, she's too cool and not confused at all. She would have been a good pick for the EW. But I think her tone is rather genuine... (Once again I can't make up my mind, it seems.)

And speaking of the EW's picks - it frustrates me when people suggest that the last wolf would be similar to the earlier picks. It's outright silly to assume that. Rikae could have picked anyone. I can't see why she would have picked someone who would fit with the earlier wolves and her styles. If I was her, I probably wouldn't have been that obvious. I might have to go back to see who have assumed Rikae to behave this way - because if you ask me, it's not only silly, but also suspicious to assume that.

The kills here baffle me. Why is Durelin alive? Why Lalaith? Why I? Why sally and Legate and Eönwë who've all been suspected very little? I'm inclined to think the wolf is someone not very much suspected and s/he's trying to drive us crazy by killing those we suspect and leaving those we don't. If that is the case, I'm really looking at Roa.
(One option of course is that the wolf is over-eager to avoid the ranger. I can understand s/he might be a bit panicky about that, but this seems crazy.)

lastly, I can't believe I trust morm. The world has changed. And speaking of trusting, I do not trust sally. There's something about her that makes me wary, (but on the other hand, I think she behaves just like her innocent self).

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Well, I have been going somewhat through yesterDay's posting and also thinking. To sum things up: I don't find anything particularly suspicious about LG, and I have started to ponder whether Shasta could not be the last Wolf. I mean, the reasons have been stated here: most of all probably his FUR (Flying Under Radar). However, I wish to wait until he shows up and speaks somewhat more. On the other hand, not sure if Rikae would have picked him... I don't think she would as a last Wolf... but as a member of pack, maybe...?

What I am positive on is that she would certainly pick somebody who was not likely a Gifted.

When reading, I was also at the beginning somewhat uncomfortable about Lalaith, thinking about the possibility of her being a Wolf. I mean, if Rikae knew it was her last pick, she may have wanted to go for sure pick (not de-gifting) and even picking Lalaith would have created confusion in the village for a while even if she became suspected - and remember Rikae had (or thought she has) three Wolves at the time, thus, she may not have counted with particularly Lal being the one to remain till the end, but to be one of them for long enough time. However, I guess while reading the thread I was slowly pushed away from this thinking and comforted by almost everybody saying that Lal is likely innocent. Right now I am willing to give her the benefit of doubt, but really...! *finger raised in warning*

[Roa_Aoife]

Legate, I would never give up until the seer revealed me if I was a werewolf. It's a little insulting that you'd suggest so.

In a more serious note: Of course I keep going back to the 4/5 changes. It's the only solid information we have. As for my comments about being a wolf:

Roa puzzles me, as she is plainly discussing what she would or would not do, in fact, she is herself bringing up the subject "I can be a Wolf and why". There is the "I am not a good lone wolf" part - she is technically saying: "I wouldn't be a good pick", but whichever way it can be interpretated, we should remember that it's not about what Roa thinks about herself, but what Rikae could have thought about her. Then there's the point made by somebody (hey, wasn't it even Roa herself...) that Rikae did not know that this is her last Wolf, which is true.

Actually, Lal was saying that I was emphasizing the "team wolf" aspect over the lone wolf aspect because I would make a good lone wolf pick. Which is untrue, and Rikae who has played with me as a wolf more than once would know that.

I got to thinking a bit and I need some assurance from a few who have the time-line down better than I. Is there any chance that Durelin could be the last wolf? Was she de-wolfified the night that Rikae made her last pick?

No, there is no chance she could be the last wolf. I'm surprised you asked this. Phantom declared that he descried the Night before the duel. There is no way that Rikae could have scried her again. Honestly, it's a little sloppy of anyone to try to make her suspicious by this route. I don't know why the last wolf hasn't killed Durelin yet, either, but we have a known innocent among us.

Why is my lack of confusion suspicious? I've never been uncalm in a game before unless I'm upset with someone. Right now I have noone to be upset with. Morm, you aren't acting confused. Lal, you aren't acting confused. In fact, the only ones acting confused are Eonwe and Lommy. Possibly Sally.

If I behaved in an uncalm manner, you would call me jumpy, and accuse me of being a wolf. Since I'm not being jumpy, you accuse me of being a wolf for being overly calm. This is definitely the first that's ever happened.

Also, I don't deny that I would make a good wolf pick. That would be silly. Of course I do, and it's best I admit to it. Rikae thought she had a team. She may have wanted me on it. I can't analyze myself, though, which is why I specifically asked Durelin to do so, since I know she's innocent and not the last wolf. (I think the last one is afraid of me. Doesn't want to kill me in the Night because I'm onto his/her trail *coughmormcough* so instead they are trying to get me lynched.)

I find it interesting that once I expressed suspicion in Lal's direction, she decides to start looking for reasons to suspect me. The same goes for morm. I can accept that he just doesn't trust me. That's for the best. I'm more concerned by the people who do trust me, because I wouldn't trust me. The only people moving with a purpose in this village are me, morm, and Lal. Since I know what my purpose is, they are at the top of my list.

Edit: crossed

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Legate, I would never give up until the seer revealed me if I was a werewolf. It's a little insulting that you'd suggest so.

Well I did not mean really "give up", I was thinking of better words to explain that, but simply... I meant you may try to be a little more careless, or, how to better explain that, daring. Not that you would throw the game away, but simply that you may not be that much calculative and such... you know.

Actually, Lal was saying that I was emphasizing the "team wolf" aspect over the lone wolf aspect because I would make a good lone wolf pick. Which is untrue, and Rikae who has played with me as a wolf more than once would know that.

Well, my point was rather that this is not that much of a point, the main thing was the second part.

(I think the last one is afraid of me. Doesn't want to kill me in the Night because I'm onto his/her trail *coughmormcough* so instead they are trying to get me lynched.)

Hm, that's quite far-fetched-seeming, I think. Why? In the current situation, I'd think the wolf wants to lynch anyone but not himself, while at the same time causing as little suspicion for himself as possible.

In any case, since my first post toDay, my thoughts were (if I put it in the really extreme way): "if Roa is lynched and innocent, Morm should be lynched the next Day". Which is what I think more people would think, including the Wolf. It will be very short-sighted for Morm to get you lynched, as he'd be one to go after you. That's one thought I have about this.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Legate

Hm, that's quite far-fetched-seeming, I think. Why? In the current situation, I'd think the wolf wants to lynch anyone but not himself, while at the same time causing as little suspicion for himself as possible.

I don't think it's far-fetched. The lone wolf will be nervous. The odds are against him. He wants to remove threats. He can't just go with the flow- he has to to make sure that attention is focused elsewhere. So he'll find a way to point the finger at others and keep the focus there. And he'll point towards the more dangerous players first.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

In any case, since my first post toDay, my thoughts were (if I put it in the really extreme way): "if Roa is lynched and innocent, Morm should be lynched the next Day". Which is what I think more people would think, including the Wolf. It will be very short-sighted for Morm to get you lynched, as he'd be one to go after you. That's one thought I have about this.

Actually, I have been thinking along the same lines, which is why Lal is more suspicious to me right now than morm. Especially with the way she agrees with him and yet finds him suspicious at the same time. If I'm lynched and found innocent, then everyone looks at morm, who would probably be lynched, getting rid of two strong players in one move, while be able to kill the people with the least amount of evidence at Night. She's distancing herself.

[Thinlómien]

I have a feeling I'm not getting a grasp on this village. *sigh* So, let's see what I'm thinking...

Greenie - I still have no reason to suspect her. She seems genuine, but I'm afraid she's slipping under my radar. Her vote yesterDay was so suspicious that it actually looks innocent. The wolf would be more careful, I think.

Shasta - Another of these "seems innocent but slips under the radar" -types. I find it hard to believe that he'd actually be the last wolf, but everything's possible...

Eönwë - Seems very innocent. Or then he's fooling us all.

Sally - Nice girl. She acts kind of wrong at times (focuses on odd things, echoes other people's suspicions a bit too much) but she seems very relaxed and like her usual self. She either is really innocent, or then she has taken one more step to the direction of becoming a master bluffer.

Roa - The tone is genuine and she makes sense. Her defense of herself is reasonable and thought-provoking. Is she too good to be good? I can't shake the feeling Rikae might have wanted to pick her, nor the thoguyht that these kills looks like something Roa could (would?) make.

Legate - *sigh* I wish I could trust him, but I can't. There's an innocentish tone in his posts but I have the feeling that I might be ignoring him with possible catastrophic results. Yeah, this must be the first game ever he's slipping under my radar. I guess I don't suspect him, but I'll keep an eye on him. (By the way I just realised I can type without looking at the keyboard. Yay! )

Lalaith - Something in her manner bugs me a little, but I can't say what. It's more uncomfortability than suspicion, though.

Mormegil - I think he seems very innocent but since everybody's been suspecting him I have the nagging feeling of what if I'm wrong...

So, "top suspects": Roa, Sally, Lalaith
But I really don't suspect even them, not much, at least.


edit: xed with Legate

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Roa - The tone is genuine and she makes sense. Her defense of herself is reasonable and thought-provoking. Is she too good to be good? I can't shake the feeling Rikae might have wanted to pick her, nor the thoguyht that these kills looks like something Roa could (would?) make.

... *sigh* So now being thoughtful and reasonable is suspicious? "Too good to be good?" Really? Is that what it comes too? "Oh Roa is calm, reasonable, and helpful- she must be evil." I can't win...

Edit: Crossed

[A Little Green]

Gah. I have to leave early one Day, and when I come back for the next one I see I received three votes.

Originally Posted by Lal (speaking about morm)

His eye of suspicion does seem to rove a bit. He starts off suspecting me, Legate and Shasta. He then goes on to give both Lommy and Roa a hard time. He eventually goes back to voting for Shasta, but then says that he’s so sure of Kath’s innocence that he’d switch his vote to Green. This part puzzles me, as Green hadn’t really seemed to register on his radar, and to me Kath really felt suspicious yesterday.

This is much along the same lines with what I thought about morm's behaviour yesterDay after I had left. If he is a wolf, he knew Kath was innocent and guessed that she'd probably be lynched and wanted to look good by declaring his trust in her
innocence. On the other hand, if he was an ordo and really thought Kath innocent, he would have wanted to switch his vote to me... I see my logic still isn't working.

I'll make a list (for change), because otherwise I'm bound to forget considering someone.

Shasta - My own husband who voted for me. *angry murmur* On a slightly more serious note, I can't get a read on him.

Lommy - Hasn't done anything suspicious and I have considered her innocentish this far (and still have no real reason to suspect her), but I don't know, something in the tone of her latest post, and the fact that she's brilliant in fooling those who think they know her well enough to catch her if she's bluffing... So to say, I'm not as easy about her than I was, but don't truly suspect her yet either.

Eönwë - Still can't get a read on him, but at least he hasn't seemed wolfish this far.

Sally - I'm not very suspicious about her either, but the very fact that I am not makes me uneasy about her. (What a logic, again!)

Dury - Innocent, obviously. (No idea why she's on my list.)

Roa - Puzzles me, as before. Seems genuine, but I bet she would even if she actually wasn't.

Legate - He seems much more composed toDay than he did earlier in the game. I don't know whether I should draw conclusions on that or not, because no one posts in an exactly same way throughout an entire game.. Other than that, I haven't much to say about him.

Lal - Still looks very innocentish.

Morm - Very puzzling. I don't know, he might very well be the last wolfie. The way he flip-flopped with his suspicion yesterDay was odd, considering the way he usually seems so certain about one suspect and concentrates on that one.

That's all for now, as I haven't much more to say. I'm off to think.


EDIT: x-ed with Leggie. Hooray, someone's here!!

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

And speaking of the EW's picks - it frustrates me when people suggest that the last wolf would be similar to the earlier picks. It's outright silly to assume that. Rikae could have picked anyone. I can't see why she would have picked someone who would fit with the earlier wolves and her styles. If I was her, I probably wouldn't have been that obvious. I might have to go back to see who have assumed Rikae to behave this way - because if you ask me, it's not only silly, but also suspicious to assume that.

Lommy, the point has been to see if we can narrow down the field. I think it profitable to see if we can find any commonalities in her picks...I'm sure she didn't think of it as being obvious, people never do but subconciously we all have certain mannerisms or habits that others notice but we are oblivious. This is what I was trying to do so I don't see why this line of thought bothers you so much. It's similar in nature to asking why the wolves killed so and so. We may not know but we may be able to establish a pattern of behavior that leads us to the wolves.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Lommy, the point has been to see if we can narrow down the field. I think it profitable to see if we can find any commonalities in her picks...I'm sure she didn't think of it as being obvious, people never do but subconciously we all have certain mannerisms or habits that others notice but we are oblivious. This is what I was trying to do so I don't see why this line of thought bothers you so much. It's similar in nature to asking why the wolves killed so and so. We may not know but we may be able to establish a pattern of behavior that leads us to the wolves.

She might have had a certain intuitive way of picking the wolves, yes, but she's definitely clever enough not to let it ride over her reason. Now that was badly explained. Hmph. Well, she's clever enough that she can use what she thinks is best, not what she feels is best. Which does not mean that she necessarily follows her instictive picking pattern (if she has one), but she could. And thus it's not wise to get stuck on that.