Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II

[Roa_Aoife]

I don't have much time, so just a few points.

Firstly, Lal, I make a terrible lone wolf. I'm good as a team member or a leader. But I have a tendency to get myself lynched, either because people assume it's safer to kill me off, or because I tend to make more enemies than friends with my harsh analysis.

Secondly, Sally, you weren't there, but I have done the whole "kill off the people who suspect me because no one would ever believe I'd do something so obvious" trick in the past. That was the only game of werewolf I ever lost.

Thirdly, Morm, yes, I do chime in with early rhetoric because A. I like rhetoric, I find it helpful to the village as a whole, and B. the deadline is 2 hours before I get off of work- early is really the only time I have. I'm not trying to control the village, I'm trying to help. I'm tying to work through an analysis of everyone, but I have limited time. Everyone is free to take from the analysis what they want.

Fortunately, I may have more time to actually be around at deadline tomorrow. So, I'll see you then.

[Lalaith]

Ok, I’ve had a closer look at Morm.
The first thing that I noticed was that he’s participating more now. However, this isn’t necessarily a guilty thing - my own participation has been variable due to RL, plus I think a lot of us felt a bit more pro-active since wolves stopped being served up to us on a plate.
His eye of suspicion does seem to rove a bit. He starts off suspecting me, Legate and Shasta. He then goes on to give both Lommy and Roa a hard time. He eventually goes back to voting for Shasta, but then says that he’s so sure of Kath’s innocence that he’d switch his vote to Green. This part puzzles me, as Green hadn’t really seemed to register on his radar, and to me Kath really felt suspicious yesterday. (Otherwise I wouldn’t have voted for her myself )

Today I’ve felt quite sympathetic to a lot of what he's said about Roa.

too emotionless for me, you don't seem lost, if you know what I mean

This is a good point, Roa’s been putting a lot of emphasis on who’s changed since day 4/5. Well looking through the posts I think that most of us have changed, and that’s to be expected. We all knew what to do before: vote Nilp, vote Cel, etc, and now we don’t. Roa’s been the player who’s stayed the mostly the same throughout, and I think that’s actually more suspicious.

I do however agree with this comment of Roa’s about Morm:

how normal he could seem while being evil

Which is why I’ve just had a good look at him. Morm is a scarily good player, even when he's RL busy.
But on balance I am more worried about Roa right now. Because of this assurance thing, and also the double-think.

Lists like this one that conveniently place oneself out of suspicion also bother me

This is precisely what Roa herself has been doing, just in a much more cunning way, by her wolf-profiling.

[Lalaith]

Some thoughts about other players.

Shasta's breezy behaviour yesterday did little to make me feel better about him.
I want Eonwe to explain why he didn't vote.
Sally I don't know what to make of. She is nice and fair to other players, which I like, but seems to vacillate a lot. YesterDay she said that she was suspicious of Kath but wanted to wait on her and give her another day. Then at the end of the Day she was so sure Kath was innocent that she was offering to eat her voting notes. What happened to change your mind so dramatically, Sally?
Her analysis of Gwath today however, was helpful - the point about him suspecting Roa and its pro/con significance was interesting.
I think Sally's point about me not being treated like a known innocent is quite reasonable. Despite what Roa said in her analysis, I did not put myself in the same category as Lommy, I said was 'fairly' rather than very unlikely as a scry. I still do think Lommy is an extremely unlikely scry and thus in my mind at least she is innocent. Given that Rikae did not know that all old wolves would be gone, when she scried her last one, and thus everyone started with a clean slate, she had no reason to think that the high suspicion of Lommy would not continue. Rikae may, as Sally says, be 'twisted', but it would have been beyond reckless, IMO, to have scried Lommy.

Anyway, aside from the innocent Durelin, this leaves Legate and Little Green. Legate I agree should be given a chance to play toDay before we focus on him. Little Green I've never played with before, and I'm finding it hard to get a feel for her. She came in for a lot of suspicion yesterday, and I need to read the thread, yet again, to try to see why.
However, it's a lovely sunny day in RL and I want to enjoy it a bit. I'll see you all later.
.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Why didn't Eon vote yesterDay? We all know he was around for a while, he posted a bit, but he didn't vote. Why? Sorry, it always irks me a bit when people don't vote and there's a tie.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I want Eonwe to explain why he didn't vote.

My internet just died! I don't know why. It just stopped suddenly, just as I opened Internet Explorer. Hopefully, though, its all sorted out, do I'll be able to post more today (and VOTE).

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Roa’s been putting a lot of emphasis on who’s changed since day 4/5. Well looking through the posts I think that most of us have changed, and that’s to be expected. We all knew what to do before: vote Nilp, vote Cel, etc, and now we don’t. Roa’s been the player who’s stayed the mostly the same throughout, and I think that’s actually more suspicious.

ooh yes... that too.

It didn't occur to me before, but now I think about it, yes.





But then contrary to mty previous post, I must conclude that even though Roa has acted suspicious, I don't think she's a WW.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

His eye of suspicion does seem to rove a bit. He starts off suspecting me, Legate and Shasta. He then goes on to give both Lommy and Roa a hard time. He eventually goes back to voting for Shasta, but then says that he’s so sure of Kath’s innocence that he’d switch his vote to Green. This part puzzles me, as Green hadn’t really seemed to register on his radar, and to me Kath really felt suspicious yesterday. (Otherwise I wouldn’t have voted for her myself )

morm is a tough one. He looks like he would be an excellent wolf, but now he doesn't seem like he's as careful as he would be in mormwolf mode (well, I think so). His posting has actuallly become louder and more forthright than before


Now with hextuple(or is that sextuple) WW-slaying busting! Wa-hey!

[Eönwë]

Well, that might be all I'm able to post until its almost the DL.

Bye for now.




PS. Please someone else post. I feel like I'm talking to myself. O, how I miss those Days of yore (earlier in this thread)

edit: x-ed with Legate. Someone's finally on the thread!

[Eönwë]

Roa the WW?

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Firstly, Lal, I make a terrible lone wolf. I'm good as a team member or a leader. But I have a tendency to get myself lynched, either because people assume it's safer to kill me off, or because I tend to make more enemies than friends with my harsh analysis.

Are you sure you're not just falsely reassuring us? Sounds like something a WW would say, especially since you've not been seriously suspected yet, even though if I had done such posts as you I would have been lynched on Day 1.

And I must agree with morm on this;

Originally Posted by mormegil

Roa, you will neither understand nor agree, but I will articulate what I can. You seem to be trying to wrest control of the village and to sway popular opinion with early retoric. The problem is, you specialize in this and do it very well. So in and of itself it's not suspicious and acutally is fairly normal. However, my concern is the vibe you are sending me. I am putting myself in the 'lone wolves' place right now and thinking of how I would behave and it's strikingly similar to how you are.

But I've never played any WW, so I don't know how you usually play. I'll go and check some threads......

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hello all ye people, I am back!

Well, I have gone somewhat through what's been posted. I am just trying to settle my thoughts. As I haven't been much around before, let me go aloud through some things which have been no doubt mentioned here, but these are for myself.

We are a little bit like in a situation similar to a normal Day 2, because we just got one unknown Wolf (apart from the things we can conclude about his/her identity from what Rikae and/or, as someone mentioned, Celuien posted and/or how do we think Rikae might have picked her Wolf. There's the thing of course, that Cel may not have been informed by Rikae about the other Wolf at all).

As for the people who are around. Sally, it's nice from you to be so fair to everyone, however this of course has nothing to do with the game itself... let us bear this in mind. Anyway, she made good point about Roa, which has been mentioned. I have the feeling more people are going to stop by this. Roa puzzles me, as she is plainly discussing what she would or would not do, in fact, she is herself bringing up the subject "I can be a Wolf and why". There is the "I am not a good lone wolf" part - she is technically saying: "I wouldn't be a good pick", but whichever way it can be interpretated, we should remember that it's not about what Roa thinks about herself, but what Rikae could have thought about her. Then there's the point made by somebody (hey, wasn't it even Roa herself...) that Rikae did not know that this is her last Wolf, which is true. Anyway, there she is continuing, concerning the possibility of her killing Gwath while he suspected her. This is more interesting. "But I can kill a person who suspects me," says Roa to Sally, which we can read simply as: "I may have killed him!". A logically thinking person must think: why would she say that (if she's a Wolf), as it destroys one argument for her innocence? And now we may start to think: Is it just Roa, or is it pre-emptive strike because someone could say that instead of her "but Roa actually did once kill..." and then when she says it about herself, it won't look as bad as if somebody else said it; or is it something else - like that Roa-wolf simply confuses us... whatever. But anyway, then Roa continues: "This was the only game of WW I ever lost." It may be merely stating the fact. But it may be also (from Roa-wolf) a negation of the before said, as it subtly says: "I lost because of it, so (as you readers must conclude) I won't be that stupid to do it again!"
It may also be that she is simply "giving it up", or, how to say that, playing not too carefully and doing things like that, playing "the odds for me are not great, so let's just have fun with the playing, try to confuse them by posting like this and if I am lucky, they'll let me win".

Or it may be a brutal frame-up against Roa.

In that case I would suggest it coming from Morm.

Okay, anyway. I see my post has turned into a Roalysis more than anything else. There is not also probably much more I can post at the moment... the other important things are:
- I agree that likely, picking Lommy would have been quite too dangerous for Rikae.
- Eönwë I can't get much read on... I think his post is more or less the same as these ones on Days before.
- LG... hard to say anything specific...

*scratches head* Must think on the rest. But hope you have at least something from me to chew... and all... anyway, I am around. Hooray, see ya.

EDIT: x-ed with Eönwë's 1419 and after that. He looks... quite normal, I'd say. If he's a wolf, he can do it the way that he seems ordinary.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

x-ed with Eönwë's 1419 and after that. He looks... quite normal, I'd say.

Hmmm.... What should I think of this.

[mormegil]

I got to thinking a bit and I need some assurance from a few who have the time-line down better than I. Is there any chance that Durelin could be the last wolf? Was she de-wolfified the night that Rikae made her last pick? If so, and I think it was, then she is in the clear, if not, then we need to look at her. The reason this comes up in my mind, is it just seems odd that she is still alive.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by mormegil

I got to thinking a bit and I need some assurance from a few who have the time-line down better than I. Is there any chance that Durelin could be the last wolf? Was she de-wolfified the night that Rikae made her last pick? If so, and I think it was, then she is in the clear, if not, then we need to look at her. The reason this comes up in my mind, is it just seems odd that she is still alive.

Hmm... personally, I have also a little hockey in the dates, and the more the rules, so I simply went to believe what was thought to be right. But from what I collected, it was that she was de-wolved, then phantom asked her and the same day Rikae was dead, so there was no way for her to turn her back? I think she would have died, had she been targeted by Rikae the same Night as the one when she was de-wolved (that would be simply targetting by both wizards at the same Night, and there's the rule for that).

[Thinlómien]

Okay, I'm here.

Kath an ordo? Well... I can't say I'm surprised. I always guess wrong.

Gwath the ordo killed? Freaky. I was suspecting him a little, and some others were suspecting him even more, and I can't see how he'd been giving gifted vibes... He was possibly killed to confuse us, or for the very reason Sally says it's odd he was killed. If I was the last wolf and feeling at least relatively comfortable, I would indeed go sporty and kill off the one who won't be participating. More discussion in the village, nicer to play. I don't know how many others here would think the same way as I in this... possibly Roa or Legate?

Gwath's kill kind of points to Roa and like morm very smartly noted, she's too cool and not confused at all. She would have been a good pick for the EW. But I think her tone is rather genuine... (Once again I can't make up my mind, it seems.)

And speaking of the EW's picks - it frustrates me when people suggest that the last wolf would be similar to the earlier picks. It's outright silly to assume that. Rikae could have picked anyone. I can't see why she would have picked someone who would fit with the earlier wolves and her styles. If I was her, I probably wouldn't have been that obvious. I might have to go back to see who have assumed Rikae to behave this way - because if you ask me, it's not only silly, but also suspicious to assume that.

The kills here baffle me. Why is Durelin alive? Why Lalaith? Why I? Why sally and Legate and Eönwë who've all been suspected very little? I'm inclined to think the wolf is someone not very much suspected and s/he's trying to drive us crazy by killing those we suspect and leaving those we don't. If that is the case, I'm really looking at Roa.
(One option of course is that the wolf is over-eager to avoid the ranger. I can understand s/he might be a bit panicky about that, but this seems crazy.)

lastly, I can't believe I trust morm. The world has changed. And speaking of trusting, I do not trust sally. There's something about her that makes me wary, (but on the other hand, I think she behaves just like her innocent self).