Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II

[Thinlómien]

Oh, and I thought I'd mention this. Lalaith has been screaming EW to me in every single post of hers toDay.

I also just pondered the possibility of Rikae being the EW, but then she'd have very little reason to anything like she just did. Or not any reason I can quickly think of.


edit: exed with Roa, Di and Legate

[Thinlómien]

Di - that's a valid point but I can't see why she'd do that. I can't see any reason for wolf/EW Rikae to take such drastic means to take attention away from Cailín. Unless Rikae is a wolf and Cailín's the EW and Rikae knows her identity, but still that might seem a little... drastic? unreasonable? I mean, if I were the GW, I'd have scried Cailín already for a long time ago. She has a sort of wizardish air and I can't say she looks perfectly innocent. (Although, given the schizophrenia, I would really need to look at her more closely to judge her better.)


edit: xed with everybody since my last post

[Thinlómien]

Somehow Cailín saying "The Rikae grand reveal has confused me as much as the rest of you." does not sit right with me at all. That "me as much as the rest of you" sounds like she would know more about the matter, or hold a special role in this drama. Most of all, it really sounds like she's the EW...


edit: xed with Cailín and phantom

[Roa_Aoife]

If Rikae is the EW, then she wouldn't risk trying to save her wolf with such a ploy.

(See, phantom, now that I can apply personality, I can make a judgement on what the EW would do.)

If Rikae is a wolf, then it's highly unlikely she knows who the EW is, or who any of her fellow wolves are. And its even more unlikely she would try such a risky move to save them in either case.

If Rikae is the GW, then she may be trying to save the innocent Cailin.

And here's a possibility no one has thought of (intentionally, perhaps?): Rikae may be a gifted, posing as the GW under direct orders to do so, so we can finally have a known wolf in front of us. If she's not answering our questions, then it may be that she doesn't know the answer because the GW didn't tell her everything.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

And here's a possibility no one has thought of (intentionally, perhaps?): Rikae may be a gifted, posing as the GW under direct orders to do so, so we can finally have a known wolf in front of us. If she's not answering our questions, then it may be that she doesn't know the answer because the GW didn't tell her everything.

Hey that's an excellent point. I think you just made me a fan of this theory.... it might make the most sense. (Although - even in that case, wouldn't she have done her "revelation" more carefully...?)

Anyway, I wouldn't be too worried anyway. We lynch either Legate or Rikae, and we know what the other one is. And ith good luck, we'll find a wolf.


edit: xed with Roa

[Thinlómien]

I'm going to quickly go through all posts posted that have come during my absence and reply to things I feel I have something to say. This Rikae-Legate thing is surely important, but let's not use all our energy on it. It will just benefit the evil team. The simplest course, anyway, is to lynch either Legate or Rikae.


edit: xed with Roa

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Somehow Cailín saying "The Rikae grand reveal has confused me as much as the rest of you." does not sit right with me at all. That "me as much as the rest of you" sounds like she would know more about the matter, or hold a special role in this drama.

Originally Posted by Di

The more I think about it, the clearer it gets.

Yes, yes... I'm feeling better and better about this. The people that I generally trust seem to be getting the same exact feeling.

All right- I've pretty much made up my mind.

Rikae is not the GW.

Roa, your thoughts are good, however there's one thing that could be going on if Rikae was on the evil side. Unfortunately I can't say what it is. Or I can say, but I shouldn't.

I want to say it really bad because it's absolutely brilliant (a compliment to Rikae for trying it and to me for thinking of it), but it could seriously play into the Evil team's hands if I were to speak it.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Roa, your thoughts are good, however there's one thing that could be going on if Rikae was on the evil side. Unfortunately I can't say what it is. Or I can say, but I shouldn't.

I want to say it really bad because it's absolutely brilliant (a compliment to Rikae for trying it and to me for thinking of it), but it could seriously play into the Evil team's hands if I were to speak it.

If you really think that, then why aren't you considering voting for Legate, who is would be a certain wolf in that case? And why are you focusing on Cailin when you realize that Rikae may be trying to save her because she's innocent? Instead, you're leading everyone to think the exact opposite.

[Diamond18]

If no one is willing to consider that Cailin is a baddie (perhaps even the EW) then I will have to say... if you think we MUST vote for either Legate or Rikae, I find Rikae to be a wiser choice.

If she's bad, we've revealed the EW. Or killed a wolf.

If she's the GW, we just confirmed what she told us.

If she's a gifted, would she have self voted? Encouraged us to lynch her? Don't think so.

My gut, my impressions from all her posts, tell me Cailin is bad.

You're far more into the cold hard logic game, Roa -- I'm more about smelling evil coming off a person's tone and actions. But I've always known you to be able to get the village on your side, not matter what side you're on, because of how collected you seem. So I'm going to let this matter rest for a bit, and say that if people are going to disregard my suppositions, at least lynch Rikae. I don't think that, whatever she is, we'll be killing an ordo or gifted if we do so.

[Diamond18]

OK I said I'd let this go, but not without one more comment:

Originally Posted by Roa

Lynching Cailin won't answer any questions for us.

Yes, it will. It would tell us who Cailin is; good, bad, wizardly. You can't say it won't answer ANY questions. That's just a completely untruth, no matter what Cailin's role is.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Diamond18

If no one is willing to consider that Cailin is a baddie (perhaps even the EW) then I will have to say... if you think we MUST vote for either Legate or Rikae, I find Rikae to be a wiser choice.

If she's bad, we've revealed the EW. Or killed a wolf.

If she's the GW, we just confirmed what she told us.

If she's a gifted, would she have self voted? Encouraged us to lynch her? Don't think so.

My gut, my impressions from all her posts, tell me Cailin is bad.

You're far more into the cold hard logic game, Roa -- I'm more about smelling evil coming off a person's tone and actions. But I've always known you to be able to get the village on your side, not matter what side you're on, because of how collected you seem. So I'm going to let this matter rest for a bit, and say that if people are going to disregard my suppositions, at least lynch Rikae. I don't think that, whatever she is, we'll be killing an ordo or gifted if we do so.

That's just it, Di. You can't know that she isn't a gifted. And if she is the GW or a gifted, then not only have we revealed that fact for certain to the EW, not only have we killed a gifted, then we've also passed up a wolf that's been handed to us on a silver platter.

It's better to lynch Legate. In any case, Rikae is not foolish enough to lie about that claim unless she was handing us a wolf to make us believe her. He's stated already that he is not a gifted, or at least not the seer, so we lose that risk right there. It's far less risky to lynch him than her.

Curious: Why not Legate?

[Lalaith]

Roa, are you saying that the EW wouldn´t do anything to save a wolf but the GW would do anything to save an innocent? This just doesn't make sense.
If Rikae is on the evil team, she's got one motive. To wreak havoc and confusion in the vilage. And she's succeeded.
There's another thing. Legate, lets say you are what you say, an ord. Lets say Rikae is lying. In which case she's either a wolf or she's a wizard, but the evil kind. If she's the EW, and we lynch her, she doesn't die. So we think she's the GW. And then perhaps she's planning on turning you in the night, and making her own statements come true. Even more confusion in the village than there is already. Oh hell, oh spite.

For what its worth, Legate, I had been kind of thinking you were innocent. The wolf Legate I played with, before, was urbane, helpful and charming. Who's this rude git, I wondered?

Lalaith! She is actually playing? I said something about submarines yesterDay, but if there are any which are really, really deep, then it is her. Unbelievable. I knew she was a subject to vote and such, but if I try to remember anything about her from this game, I don't recall anything.

The innocent version?

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Roa, are you saying that the EW wouldn´t do anything to save a wolf but the GW would do anything to save an innocent? This just doesn't make sense.

Isn't it the GW's job to ensure our victory? Isn't one way to do that saving the innocent and pointing out the evil? And did you entirely miss the idea that Rikae may be a gifted acting under the GW's orders?

I'm saying that a Rikae EW wouldn't risk it. I think that a Rikae GW might. I think that any GW may very well use a gifted as an emissary to the village. It's not as risky as you think.

I knew who Gurthang was for Days, before I challenged him. In fact, I didn't challenge him until I was revealed. The GW may safely reveal and the EW won't do a thing abut it except try to guess the gifteds.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Oh, and I thought I'd mention this. Lalaith has been screaming EW to me in every single post of hers toDay.

That's another thing. But on the other hand, she suggests lynching Rikae, although quite plainly without much doubt, at least I find it unlikely for her to be a part of "conspiracy" . Now Lommy is saying this against her, so what if Lommy is part of the conspiracy too... For the sake of it, let me point out a (possibly overstrethed, I am aware) theory: What if Lommy is the EW and Rik is a wolf? It will make sense then when it comes to what I said above.

The thing, what Di says, about out-focusing from Cailín is interesting point.

EDIT: x-ed since Lommy I quoted.

And I wanted to leave for now, at least for a while, but it's not quite good maybe at this situation, however... eh. But maybe if for a moment I leave, if no one has any things to ask me right away or something, I may.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I also just pondered the possibility of Rikae being the EW, but then she'd have very little reason to anything like she just did. Or not any reason I can quickly think of.

See my below response to Roa. The EW has way more reason to do this than an actual GW. The more I think about it, the clearer it gets.

Originally Posted by Roa

Or Rikae may be trying to save Cailin because Rikae is the GW an knows that Cailin is innocent. Don't be hasty on that front.

I'm not. If you'll see, I said that between Cailin and Legate, I find Cailin more evil. C and L had been getting the most suspicion, it seemed, with Rikae being gungho on Legate and phantom/Gwath being gun-ho on Cailin. The GW would want to step in to save good Cailin and get evil Legate lynched, but is that so wise? So early in the day? The GW loses more by revealing.

The EW (gains more by revealing, deflecting suspicion from a wolf, and getting the village to waste a lynch on an innocent or waste it on a Wizard who can't be killed.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Diamond18

See my below response to Roa. The EW has way more reason to do this than an actual GW. The more I think about it, the clearer it gets.



I'm not. If you'll see, I said that between Cailin and Legate, I find Cailin more evil. C and L had been getting the most suspicion, it seemed, with Rikae being gungho on Legate and phantom/Gwath being gun-ho on Cailin. The GW would want to step in to save good Cailin and get evil Legate lynched, but is that so wise? So early in the day? The GW loses more by revealing.

The EW (gains more by revealing, deflecting suspicion from a wolf, and getting the village to waste a lynch on an innocent or waste it on a Wizard who can't be killed.

Di, stop and think. Wolves are replaceable. The EW would not do this to save a wolf. Especially not Rikae, who has totally agreed with me in that past about sacrificing our fellows. (I've been a wolf with her.)

The EW gains nothing by this move. If we lynch Legate, and he's innocent, then we know that she is evil, and she can't go on in secret making more and more wolves. Why risk a possible two or three or even four more wolves to save the life of one? It isn't logical, and it isn't the way Rikae thinks.

[Roa_Aoife]

Phantom and Di's exuberance in trying to turn this back to Cailin has me rather convinced. As Lommy said, it's simplest lynch Legate or Rikae. Lynching Cailin won't answer any questions for us.

I can think of two reasons the GW may have revealed:

She wanted to save an innocent.

She wanted to give us a wolf while everyone was still around to vote on the matter.

It's possible that both are true. It's also possible that Rikae is a gifted posing as the GW to achieve both these ends.

Phantom and Di's reluctance to accept that this is a possibility concerns me greatly. Especially phantom. Because that just makes want to believe in Rikae even more.

[Roa_Aoife]

I can't hang around at the moment, but I'll be back in intervals checking in. To people who AREN'T so hell-bent on getting Cailin, please consider all the possibilities before you simply mistrust Rikae.

[Celuien]

Oh my goodness.

This is certainly a very confusing turn of events... and none of it really makes sense to me at all. At this point in the game, the village is down by one gifted with Mac's death last night - we only have a hunter and seer. Against four wolves. So with those numbers, it doesn't make sense for the GW to reveal - it would make more sense to try and get another gifted in the roster. Especially since there's no dueling allowed until toMorrow. And again, why reveal to the EW when there's no way that the EW could have found out who the GW is without a reveal? So, no, this doesn't make sense to me at all.

At the same time, I can't think of any good motives to impersonate the GW either... there didn't seem to be any indication that the GW was going to be flushed out of hiding (unless I missed something in my rather cursory skimming of the last few pages). All it does is cause distraction and confusion - look at us all sitting here and debating what the reveal means!

Now, it would make sense for a wolf to try to cause this kind of distraction. I think that this might be the most logical explanation. The EW may have given instructions to cause confusion today - and I've seen some gifted impersonation in the past by tricksy werewolves, so this would fit the pattern.

I don't think there's any attempt to shield Cailin involved. Wolves are fairly expendable so long as the EW is around... And it makes no sense at all for the EW to protect a replaceable wolf with such a dramatic gesture, so I think that excludes a Rikae/Cailin wolf/EW combination. I also don't think they are both wolves because I still hold to the theory that the EW wouldn't necessarily tell the wolves each other's identities while the GW could potentially unscry one of them to become an ordo, and then end up with (at least part) of the pack given away.

So, after all that, I think that Rikae is probably bad to the bone because she's the one doing the distracting right now. Despite the timing of the reveal, I don't think it tells us anything one way or the other about Cailin for reasons given above. At this point, I'm very inclined to vote for Rikae. If she's telling the truth about being the GW, we can't lynch her anyway - and she'll still have tonight to give one last gifted - and we won't change the duel tomorrow if we confirm her identity. If she's lying, we've rid ourselves of another nasty wolf. But I'll lurk a little longer before casting my vote.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by phantom

Lommy, remember that WerePenguin game? Remember the way Boro and Ang set off my alarms from the get-go. That's how I'm feeling with Cailin.

As I recall, I was the only one cally for Boromir's lynch on Day 1, until the seer, who was almost lynched, came forward and confirmed what I was saying. Stop taking credit for my work. :P

[Roa_Aoife]

I find it amusing that most of the people who have raised my suspicions are the ones for lynching Rikae.