Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Cailín

This Roa/phantom spat seems more than likely two proud ordos going at it. Everyone try not to get too focused on that.

Really? I'm fairly certain that one of them has to be a wolf...I just haven't decided which one.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Other than that, I don't like the casting of random or unreasoned votes yesterDay and not explaining them. I'd still like an explanation from Gwath as I voted him yesterDay because of his suspicious behaviour, a great part of which was his completely unreasoned vote.

Sorry. I voted for sally for the suspicions outlined in my first post toDay, basiucally because her posting style yesterDay seemed markedly subdued from her usual craziness, and almost compromising in places. YesterDay, mind you. She doesn't seem to be doing it toDay.

[Gwathagor]

Man! Ok, I have to vote within the next 40 minutes...

[Durelin]

Hmm, just wanted to note this isn't my quote, Ka, unless I posted in my sleep...

Usual self? But Aganzir's usual self could just as easily be evil. After all, she's been evil in almost half of the games she's played...

Anyway...it's interesting to see phantom on the defensive. Roa can attack anyone like crazy regardless of her role. Have no idea about either of them. I agree these things often tend to be villager on villager. However...I can see Roa EW throwing phantom-wolf to the "lambs"... Yes, she could be the EW again, lucky her.

I actually feel good about Kath because she hasn't been her usual self who seems very active and helpful but slips by with very few posts (though long and decisive). Mostly that seems to be because she's been busy. So I'm probably quite foolish to be 'feeling' anything.

I feel good about Rikae, too, for once. Yeah, I know, she feels I'm innocent-looking for once, so I have to like her too. No...I hope I'm better than that.

Originally Posted by Cailin

Rikae feels less intimidating in this game

I rather agree with this. But I don't feel like worrying about it right now.

Isabel's post bothers me. Completely useless while looking useful. Similar to Nilp, she talks about the village's situation as dire. She doesn't really say anything about anyone, but casts a general sort of suspicion over the "sillyness." All very boring and silly. I think she's a much better submarine than McCaber, and he bothers me, too.

Maybe that's why I like Rikae right now - I always did tend to side with Nogrod in his campaigns against the submarines.

Legate seems too frustrated and argumentative to be a baddie. I know he can be a very smooth wolf, and this is not it.

Originally Posted by Legate

Durelin... who apparently keeps questioning her

I'm enjoying being obnoxious, questioning any logic that bothers me (such as a sort of 'appeal to authority'), regardless of whether or not I actually find it suspicious, much less think it's important at all.

I feel okay about Mac. Have no sense of Gwath. I like Di, don't care to bother with phantom and Roa at the moment. Cailin's creepy. Aganzir, Lommy, and A Little Green all bother me. Nilp is...whatever. I feel pretty good about Lhuna. Brinniel and Ka seem so serious. Whoever I forgot - they're all wolves.

[Gwathagor]

I would like to vote for either tp or Roa. But I can't decide which one is the wolf, so I am going to hold off casting judgement regarding that particular brawl until tomorrow.

Eonwe's vote against tp yesterDay still looks suspicious, but as has been pointed out, he is new. So he gets another day from me as well.

sally has ceased behaving oddly, so I can't justify voting against her. Darn.

So:

++Lalaith

I have to go do the dishes, but here's my explanation: her friendly tone looks to me like a facade which is betrayed by the unhelpful nature of her posts. I'll elaborate later if I have time.....

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Phantom worries me today, moreso than yesterday. I shan't go into why; seems to me more than enough attention has been paid his way today.

To others that seem odd to be are Mac and Legate, at the moment. Now, I've never been good at dredging up a whole page-ful of quotes to respond to, but I'll do my best. (Legate will probably end up just me being vain... )

[Rikae]

Less threatening? Have I lost my touch?
I'll lynch you all!

Hmph.

Anyway, I went and looked at the list and all I can say is, there are too many people in this village flying under the radar already. Most of these people, I can't form any impression of at all, because they are posting too little and/or too blandly - which, to me, suggests the majority of our baddies lurk among them.

A Little Green, Lalaith, Kath, McCaber, THE Ka, Celuien... others that escape me at the moment - oh yes, even Lommy now, who's usually in the spotlight to some extent - are all slipping my mind in this game, and as slippery as my mind may be, that's still bugging me. Gwath's vote for Lalaith looks kind of random, but I can understand it. Still, of that list, I find the quietness of Lommy and Greenie most worrying.

EDIT: Crossed with Shasta, who is also slippery.

[Durelin]

Gwath's 'devotion' seems half-hearted (I think it was Rikae who said he and Sally seemed more devoted to this game than usual?).

A couple of the forgotten...

Lalaith is creepy along with Cailin. There's a nasty pair...

morm is morm.

Oh yeah, sally... Yeah. Might as well be a wolf.

Ohhh, there are two Eonwe's! (Wayyy too lazy to do accent marks.)

Wow, totally forgot Shasta and Celuien. Hmm...

Need to go take a shower (it's noon here...hah).

Edit: Crossed with Shasta and Rikae.

Oh don't worry, Rikae...I'm sure you'll become more and more of a looming threat in the shadows the longer you happen to survive...

[Kath]

Day 1, page 1:

Volo - I think it's been decided now that the Seer didn't get a dream on Night 1 which does mean I don't have to search for clues. From his first post I can see little in the way of clues that he's the Seer at all.

Shasta - IC. Finally something of substance even if it is a rule clarification. From what I recall of the last game I think this is right, that EW and wolves communicate through the mod, but that doesn't hamper communication in any way if the EW wants it.

Agan - IC.

Kitanna - IC.

Ka - IC. Post 35, would you mind re-explaining it as I don't really get what you meant. It looks interesting but I can't quite figure it out. Oh! Ignore that, you do explain. Again there I'm taking the view that if you've chosen wolves you think they're going to be good and so you don't really need to control them in that way.

Roa - IC. Takes the complete opposite end of the stick to phantom, saying we must get wolves. Yes true, but pegging the EW would be fantastic. I think they're both arguing for the same thing just from opposing views. Argues that we do need to catch wolves. Claims phantom is deliberately giving out false information which I don't think is the case. Gets that the EW is important but thinks focusing on the wolves is more effective.

phantom - a lot of statistics. Said that we need to find a way to rank the likelihood of those who might be the EW, yet much of his argument with Roa toDay revolved around that fact that this wasn't done. This may be due to those two concentrating on every little mention by the other and maybe we should come back to this. Cailin tried it as I recall, but got pretty much everyone down as evil! We might have to wait til we've had some more information for that to be worthwhile though. To be fair to Roa I don't like how he downplays the serious nature of the wolves. I think it imperative that we aim to find any evil roles, whether they be found through connections (unlikely) or other methods. Has a point about not discussing possible werewolf tactics, in fact doing that generally gets you suspected.

Brinn - a little over the top with 'how much does my head hurt' comments. It's a bit 'oh poor me' and Brinn isn't usually like that. But then, this game is hell on your head.

Durelin - IC.

Sally - IC. Interesting idea that the EW might ask their wolves to play differently but I think it unlikely. The EW set out a list of wolves, so people they thought would be able to pull it off in this game, therefore whichever of those people ended up as wolves the EW shouldn't need their playing style to be different.

Lalaith - IC, though a mention of Roa and phantom's argument.

morm - agrees with phantom that the EW is the key but as he is also trying to figure out who might be wolvish or not (phantom in this case) he seems to take more of a midpoint between Roa and phantom. Thinks Brinn suspicious.

[Kath]

Hmm, and just a note as I've looked at the latest posts, Rikae has a very good point about Lommy. I don't see floodposting, flipflopping and general presence. Definitely something to look at.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Really? I'm fairly certain that one of them has to be a wolf...I just haven't decided which one.

Are you for real, Gwathagor? What makes it certain that one has to be a wolf? The fact that they are arguing? That you can't decide whose side you are on, yet whoever ends up less persuasive to you is a wolf, is really quite odd reasoning.

[A Little Green]

Okay, I'm here to post a little postie before being off to work a little. The thing is, I have very little to say. I don't have a clue about anything and I'm getting frustrated. Gwath looks better toDay than he did yesterDay. As to who looks bad... no one and everyone.

Originally Posted by Dury

However...I can see Roa EW throwing phantom-wolf to the "lambs"... Yes, she could be the EW again, lucky her.

I agree that it looks like a possible scenario, except that didn't Roa do something very like that in her last game as EW? I don't know whether she'd do the same in this one...

Bah. I'm really much too frustrated at the moment. I guess I need to think a little and come back with substance (hopefully).

What comes to Lommy being quiet, well, she studied for some hours, then went off to see her friends, and is going to a concert in the evening. She'll be back well before the DL, I think..


EDIT: x-ed since Rikae

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Macalaure - Day 1

#52 - Speculation on how wolves might act. Wonders why we don't just go for whoever simply appears evil, rather than WWs or the EW. Suspicious of Roa (because wanting to look for WWs is wolfish, apparently), Shasta for agreeing, and I can't make out whether he suspects Lhuna or not, but she agreed with Roa as well, so... Says morm, Ka, and Phantom are unlikely to be the EW because... they're too controversial? For starters, I don't believe morm had posted much of anything, if anything by the time you posted this, so I don't see how he could be classified as controversial unless you're talking about personality, which (I assume) wasn't a major factor in Nogrod's decision. In fact, if you're talking about personality, the same could be said of Ka and Phantom. Really not sure what you mean by that, Mac. Anyway, closes by admitting to be baffled by Cailin.

#64 - Agrees heartily with Volo's bulleted list of possibilities. Mentions how dire the situation will be if we haven't found the EW by the time she can be defeated (Day 4). Points out Greenie's way of drawing attention to Volo's wolf slip, while drawing attention to it himself.

#76 - Why are you posting in increments of 12, Mac? Thanks Legate for liking him, but uses this post to point out his own suspicion against Legate. Mentions that he's aware he needs to not suspect people solely for agreeing with Roa. Thinks Legate's way of emphasizing Roa's point about being unable to know anything for sure about the EW is suspicious. Assumes Legate to be discarding Phantom's opinion simply because he does not share it. Puts forth his opinion that the EW could have more risky tasks for her wolves than in a normal game. Also, his likes and dislikes appear here.

#113 - Becomes more suspicious of Legate.

#126 - Continues being more suspicious of Legate. This is mostly because he feels Legate has repeatedly not elaborated on his dismissal of Phantom.

#138 - Increment of 12 again. Thinks Brinniel states the obvious too much. Begins to suspect Rikae for siding with Roa and crew. Says his main suspects are Roa, Legate, and Shasta. Seems to be mainly because of the WW vs EW opinion. Discounts his previous list as being of very little help.

#143 - Ecstatic and enthusiastic agreement with Aganzir about Legate. Dismisses any more talk of WWs vs. EW as uninteresting.

#178 - Predicts the wolves will stay away from voting Phantom. Votes Legate.

Macalaure - Day 2

#346 - Comments on the deaths of Volo and Kitanna; Volo was unlucky, but can be replaced, has no idea on Kitanna. Says the Nerwen bandwagon yesterday was ridiculous. Remarks "If I was evil"... which strikes me as odd; no point in giving the EW ideas if they haven't thought them up on their own. Becomes more actively suspicious of Lhuna for not being specific enough in her own suspicion of him. Also for Lhuna's comment on Eonwe (I don't know how to do accents...). Skipped the Roa/Phantom argument.

#349 - Acknowledges Lhuna's comment about suspecting people that don't agree with him with a "rueful grin". Agrees with (or at least doesn't argue against) Lhuna's thought that he would make a good wolf, but intimates that he could also be gifted.

#352 - Dissects the Nerwen bandwagon. Concludes that Phantom could be the EW, but otherwise doesn't really say anything. This particular quote:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

The dissuaders, Aganzir, Lommy, and Brinniel look good, but since evildoers like looking good, it doesn't automatically point towards innocence.

seems to be one of those classic wishy-washy wolf maneuvers. Dissects Volo's death. Notes that Volo was most inconvenient to (thus, those with the biggest motive to kill him are) Aganzir and Legate, his main suspicion from yesterday. Thinks Legate's suspicion of Volo yesterday was halfhearted and thus suspicious.

#353 - Adds that Aganzir's reaction to Volo was an eyeroll. Notes that her reactions to Lommy's's accusations against her were pretty lethargic until late in the Day, when she began to accumulate votes. Notes a discrepancy in Nilp's theory.

So far, I'm thinking Mac a 7, if 1 is "completely innocent" and 10 is "completely bad". I wouldn't be averse to voting him today. Now to look at Legate.

[Kath]

Day 1, page 2:

Roa - good point about the EW not wanting to share information.

Lhuna - agrees with Roa about looking for wolves rather than wizards (and why does that remind me of Horcruxes or Hallows? ) but also agrees with phantom that it will be tough.

Durelin - points out that wolves can slip up of their own accord.

Gwath - agrees with phantom that it's the EW that needs to be focused on.

Brinn - good point that looking for connections is possible because the wolves and the EW know each other. Actually this post settles the Roa/phantom argument for me, if only they agreed.

Izzy - basically what Brinn just said.

Cailin - repeats above and does what phantom wanted, tried to work out who might be an EW. Oh, no it was a list of wolves not wizards.

Mac - good point that wolves can be sacrificed because the EW can always make more and that we should simply lynch those who appear evil. Looks at Roa for a comment, some suspicion of Shasta too. Good point about Greenie just pointing out Volo's potential slip and then leaving the outcome to everyone else.

Greenie - suspects phantom some, especially for his attention-grabbing ways.

Volo - ooh very good point about no one using actual names in Night discussions just in case, which ends with him saying it's the EW we need to focus on. Different idea to everyone else, that the GW is better with wolves and we're better with the EW. It's certainly an idea, I'm not familiar enough with the rules to know if this is really right. Someone give me a simple answer here, how do the good guys win? If we lynch the EW what happens? If the GW scries the EW what happens? I admit it, I didn't read the new rules, I'm going on what I recall from the last game.

Rikae - thinks Mac is overreacting a bit and that Roa was right to face phantom though she doesn't think him suspicious. Does think morm a little suspicious though.

morm - voted Brinn on a hunch, no explanation.

Kitanna - repeats a lot of what has gone before conclusion wise, also says not to rely on lists because they're as much use to the EW as the rest of us.

Lommy - sides with Roa about finding the wolves. Agrees with Brinn about connections. Suspects Agan. Has phantom and morm as innocent (though morm less so, there's no definite conclusion there).

Celuien - again mentions that the EW and wolves may not communicate so it might not be possible to find connections.

Ka - makes sense about better to go after wolves than the EW when the EW is going to find it easier to hide.

I've got to post 67 but my head has gone a bit (I need food) and my battery is dying so I'll return later. I'm finding this going through it all quite helpful but I will likely leave it for the rest of the Day and focus on toDay when it comes to voting. Anyway, back soon.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Legate - Day 1

#67 - Slightly in-character entrance. Replies to morm (disagreeing), Roa (agreeing) morm again (disagreeing), Ka (confused, states opinion on whether or not the EW would reveal her identity to the wolves), Roa (agreeing, again), Gwath (disagreeing), Roa again (agreeing), Izzy (agreeing), Greenie (unsure about Phantom - this is the post that Mac bases most of his suspicion of Legate on, Day 1), Mac (disagreeing), Volo (agreeing, but suspicious), Cailin (agreeing), Mac (agreeing). Sums up with liking Mac and Lommy and Aganzir, doesn't like Volo, suspicious of Greenie and Gwath, doesn't know what to think about Phantom. In my opinion, lots of agreeing going on, as well as "who knows" and "why not". Not one to rock the boat, is Legate.

#71 - More in-character. Thinks Agan is clever, tells Sally to vote Phantom while saying he probably will not... This sets my alarms ringing, for some reason.

#77 - Answers Mac's first suspicion regarding Phantom.

#95 - Continues to answer Mac's suspicions regarding Phantom. Believes Nerwen to be innocent. But this quote:

Originally Posted by Legate

Nerwen's posting, especially her post #82 actually looks sensible, and innocentish. However, I can as well imagine her evilly grinning behind this innocent mask. But that's just the tiny bit of feeling.

is reminiscent of the quote I posted of Mac's earlier; wishy washy. "However", "but". Another odd quote:

Originally Posted by Legate

Actually, I also - although I see I already meddled in that - don't see a point in such discussions, respectively: don't see a point in their subject. What people say, and that they interact and actually say something, is another thing and it's good. But otherwise, I think that simply everyone should do what he thinks is the best and then something will happen.

I don't understand this at all! It seems vaguely child-like to me, which isn't like Legate at all. Anyway, is still suspicious of Greenie, Volo, and Gwath.

#104 - Mentions Lommy. Suspicious of her for pointing out a difference in Sally's normal posting style.

#119 - Begins to get irritated (one could say, defensive, but he looks irritated to me) with Mac's continual suspicion regarding Phantom.

#131 - Has finally had enough of Mac and drops the subject completely.

#136 - Elaborates on his suspicion of Volo for Volo's benefit.

#171 - ...I really don't know what to make of this post. Legate, help me out?

#181 - finds McCaber's vote so soon after Phantom's suspicion of her to be suspicious.

#199 - Finds Lommy's lack of a personal opinion to be suspicious. Would rather not see Nerwen or Phantom lynched. Thinks Agan a possible EW.

#214 - Doesn't want to vote for anyone voted for thus far. Doesn't like metagame.

#221 - Begins to be wishy-washy in who he wants to vote for, with lots of ellipses. Can't decide between Agan and Nerwen. Says he will vote for Agan, implying he wants her to be lynched, but says he'd be comfortable with Nerwen being lynched.

#224 - Reiterates. Implies, now, that he doesn't want Agan lynched. Very suspicious.

#229 - Finally votes Aganzir, fobbing the decision off on others.

#233 - Replies to Shasta. Implies now that he didn't want to vote for Nerwen or Agan!

#236 - Replies to Brinn. Says he doesn't want to waste his vote at such a time, but effectively does by his own admission earlier (throwing the decision to the people who haven't voted). Really not liking Legate's vote at all.

Legate - Day 2

#332 - Replies to Phantom; thinks he could have been scried for a wolf.

A quote of Aganzir's that I hadn't seen until now, that sums up what I was thinking about Legate's vote perfectly:

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Legate & yesterday's voting. If that wasn't suspicious, nothing is.

"I want to jump the bandwagon as there's even a chance she'd be lynched (and she suspects me) and now I must explain it to everybody so as not to look I was indeed just jumping in the bandwagon!"

(Legate basically dismisses this.) Becomes very... hyper? jumpy? about Phantom. Says he is more suspicious of Phantom today. Offers the possibility that the wolves are roleplaying their kills. Wow, this is an extremely long post... okay. Thinks Phantom could be the EW. Wonders if Volo had the chance to dream. Thinks it's possible Roa is evil and Phantom gifted. The requisite "But..." line follows. Thinks Roa to be genuine, but another "but..." line rears its ugly head. Agrees with Lhuna. Another "But..." line. Suspicious of Sally's excuse for voting Phantom. Wonders why Durelin states the obvious. Exhorts people to post shorter posts ( ). Answers Brinniel's question about a submarine. Doesn't like Brinniel's reaction to Volo; thinks it ungenuine. Dismisses Shasta's theory completely (there's my vanity kicking in... ) States the obvious in noting that Roa goes after Phantom. Hyper Legate again, in Ka's direction this time. Thinks Ka's backing of Celuien looks odd. Is sick and tired of Phantom's constant chatter. Notes for Cailin that Volo wouldn't have had a dream and thus would have given no signs. Lots of broken up smileys. Becomes EXTREMELY hyper because there's another page to read. (Whew, finally done. Short posts, eh Legate?)

#334 - *sigh* Agrees with Brinniel that Roa is possibly focusing too much on Phantom, but thinks her suspicious anyway. Thinks Eonwe's style to be normal, but other things about him odd. (More wishy-washyness?) Thinks Brinniel is too nice to be anything other than evil. Complains about Phantom some more.

#335 - Notes that he'll be gone for a bit today.

#340 - Analyzes Brinniel. Much like I'm doing to him now. Some of his suspicion of her is alleviated.

#341 - Asks Brinn to elaborate on the Nerwen voters. Wants to see more of Greenie. (Back off, whippersnapper!)

Legate seems pretty bad to me as well. There are a few things (most notably his vote yesterday) that just don't speak of innocence. In fact, I'd be comfortable voting either him or Mac today.

[the phantom]

Roa for tp
Lhuna for Mac
Nilp for McCaber
Gwath for Lal

Originally Posted by morm

I still can't shake the feeling I've got about Brinniel and will likely revote for her today.

People keep bringing up Brin, but every time I reread her stuff she moves lower down my list. morm, laddie- if you're feeling inclined to trust me today, I'd let her be. She's one of the few I have a fairly firm opinion on.

Originally Posted by Rikae

YesterDay I thought he was just trying to stir the pot and get people talking, a day 1 technique I approve of

Well good.

Originally Posted by EDIT: Rikae

but toDay he is defensive and overly focused on Roa's attacks

That's not how I started the day, nor is it how I planned on spending the day. She kind of forced my hand with her million word post featuring bunches of misinterpreted quotes from me. I kind of had to respond to it. Believe me, I think the entire affair is at best a pointless distraction.

I've liked the way Kath has been talking today.

I like Shasta less with every posting he makes.

I'm still flip-floppy on Legate.

[Rikae]

Hey! I'm not Roa. (Sheesh, we aren't even twins... )

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Hey! I'm not Roa.

Ha ha ha! Sorry. I guess it's because both of your names start with "R". I shall go back and edit the mistake.

All right, here's where I stand right now on whether or not I would mind lynching people.

I do not want to lynch these people because I find them innocent, or I think I will be able to get a read on them, or because I'd rather watch them for now.

Green
Nilp
Izzy
Eonwe
Kath
Sally
Mac
Rikae
tp
Di
Cailin
Lhuna
Brin
Legate
Lal
morm
Cel

I would be willing to accept the lynching of the following, either because I suspect them, because I don't have an opinion on them, or because I think their death might tell us something.

Shasta
Lommy
Dur
Roa
Agan
Ka
Gwath
McCaber

[Rikae]

What is it you find suspicious about Shasta? Just curious...

[Rikae]

To add something to the above, I didn't like his analysis of Mac much, but then, I always think I understand my husband better than anybody else does - I did think he had some good points about Legate, though that analysis also seemed a bit... skewed? Not sure.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Originally Posted by Legate
Nerwen's posting, especially her post #82 actually looks sensible, and innocentish. However, I can as well imagine her evilly grinning behind this innocent mask. But that's just the tiny bit of feeling.

is reminiscent of the quote I posted of Mac's earlier; wishy washy. "However", "but".

This - well, I think we all get hunches, but Legate is wording it rather cautiously (only a tiny bit of feeling), and cautious people set off my alarm bells.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Rikae

What is it you find suspicious about Shasta? Just curious...

I'm kinda curious too, Phantom, considering you haven't had a word to say about me till now.

[the phantom]

To add something to the above, I didn't like his analysis of Mac much, but then, I always think I understand my husband better than anybody else does - I did think he had some good points about Legate, though that analysis also seemed a bit... skewed?

That's certainly part of it. I don't agree with the way he has analyzed either one of them.

Plus his statement that I'm worrying him more today than I did yesterday. I find that puzzling. I'm not being nearly so insane today- it is no longer the time for it. What does he find worrying? The fact that I responded to an attack? Or the fact that I am now stating opinions on various villagers?

It seems like an easy set up to me- he is trying to, without giving any actual reasons, set himself up to vote my direction if the wind begins to blow towards me. At least that's the gut feeling that I took away from it.

I know there was something else though. I went back and searched for it but couldn't find it. I could've sworn something he did yesterday pinged my radar, because I remember writing his name down as I did a read-through.

Ugh. I'm tired... I'll be back in a bit.

[the phantom]

considering you haven't had a word to say about me till now

Actually, I did. From my first post of the day-

3) I'm a bit suspicious of Shasta.

That was before you had even posted anything today, so I know I saw something yesterday that I didn't like.

I'll look for it after lunch.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Phantom

Plus his statement that I'm worrying him more today than I did yesterday. I find that puzzling. I'm not being nearly so insane today-

That's part of the point, yes. I'm beginning to wonder if you haven't been "forcibly constrained".

And what's wrong with my analyses? You know, this happens every time; I exert myself and immediately get suspected for it. It's depressing.

[the phantom]

That's part of the point, yes. I'm beginning to wonder if you haven't been "forcibly constrained".

As if anyone could do that to the phantom.

And what's wrong with my analyses?

Mainly that your feelings aren't always matching up with mine.

I know that's an unfair gripe, but that's what helps keep you on my lynch list- I don't mind getting rid of someone so much if they don't seem to be headed the same way as me.

Not that I'm trying to send the mob your way right now. I'd much rather see a continuation of the Lommy versus Agan battle. Or it would also be fine to see Roa lynched since the EW might have given her "get TP lynched so we don't have to waste a kill/scry on him" instructions. So don't get too nervous. I am willing to lynch you. That does not mean you are my target of choice.

And at any rate, at this point in the game very slight suspicion is sort of the best we have to go on. After all, we haven't caught a baddie yet. Once we do I believe we can start coming to some harder conclusions.

I can't even think straight now, anyway. The fact that I didn't fall asleep until 5 AM is really starting to catch up to me. Two hours of sleep has a way of making a guy feel very dull-witted. Perhaps I should take a nap.

[Macalaure]

Hey! An analysis of me.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Why are you posting in increments of 12, Mac?

It's a code.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Says his main suspects are Roa, Legate, and Shasta. Seems to be mainly because of the WW vs EW opinion.

It was not entirely because of a difference of opinion. Note that my suspicion of Lhuna and Rikae was much lower and my suspicion of you ebbed away later. It was the way the opinion was stated. There was something of a manipulative feel to it. Difficult to explain.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Remarks "If I was evil"... which strikes me as odd; no point in giving the EW ideas if they haven't thought them up on their own.

Come on, that's not true. If you want to catch a criminal, you need to think like a criminal.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Notes that her reactions to Lommy's's accusations against her were pretty lethargic until late in the Day, when she began to accumulate votes.

Actually, she started to do it earlier, iirc, but it seemed like she ignored them as long as she could.


I wonder why people become suspicious of Shasta because of his analyses. While I don't share one of his conclusions (guess which ), I think he looks very innocentish today.


Something else... Kath, no offense intended, but are you sure your posts today are very helpful? It's a lot to read, but there's actually rather little new to learn from them...

[Kath]

Right! I'm fed, watered and battery-full, and all earlier than I expected so I shall at least finish the page I was on before.

Day 1, page 2, part two:

Legate - little confused over his comment on morm, as he says 'no don't look at things through the EW's eyes' but then says 'but actually, why not?'. Agrees with Roa's side, that we should focus on the wolves but more generally just go for anyone who looks suspicious which, of course, agrees with what was said earlier. Some suspicion of Volo for not being quite himself. Perhaps, if Legate is not a wolf/EW himself, this is what they picked up on. Also wariness of Greenie and Gwath though no reasoning there. Disagrees with sally about phantom.

Agan - thinks phantom's words look a bit planned. Thinks Brinn suspicious for being 'certain' about the wolves not communicating. I'm not sure about that, Brinn had been summing things up in that post I believe so I don't think she was certain about it, it was just the consensus most people had reached. Puts Ka, phantom, sally, Gwath and Brinn on the suspicion list. There is reasoning for most of it but it does look a little forced in places. It was Day 1 so it's sort of understandable but it's still a little odd. Thinks Durelin is trying too hard to build a case against her.

sally - votes phantom because he bothers her the most. I'd say this is like someone playing with a suicidal Nilp for the first time, the sheer unfamiliarity breeds suspicion. That's not to say though that she isn't right, again thinking about Nilp it's occurred before that a newcomer has seen right through him where oldtimers haven't.

Roa - makes a good point. She has done this before, her experience is important for us to think about. Again I think she's taken the phantom's post a little wrong, with the 'there are no wolves' thing. The way he puts it is useless but I don't think he's saying that there's no way to find them, simply that he doesn't think it as important to find them.

Gwath - votes sally, no reasoning.

Durelin - thinks Cailin's list useless. Well, yes, it was really, but it probably gave her a way to focus the way she thinks about the village. That's why I do these after all. Thinks Ka isn't bein interesting enough, nor sally, and is bothered by Agan. Mentions phantom possibly being the EW. Sadly, the problem is that anyone could be the EW. Either phantom who is playing it so loudly or Nilp who barely speaks. You could make a case for being the EW against practically anyone. This is why I'd prefer to look for the wolves, yes you could do the same with them but you generally have something more to go on. Thinks Agan is being too defensive, I wouldn't have said so, she replied to an accusation quite calmly.

Mac - has Shasta, Cailin and Roa as suspects, little real reasoning.


Hmm, there's quite a fight brewing between Durelin and Agan there too, it's just overshadowed some by Roa and phantom. I'm having a think about Mac as well, I think something earlier struck me as a little off, I might check that out.

[Isabellkya]

I am here, and about halfway through my re-read.

I do have something I would like to comment on now. It may be discussed further along, but I don't remember it being so. Either way, I'm commenting! :P

#241 - Diamond asks phantom why he didn't vote yesterDay.

#244 - phantom in reply to the question, asks a question. A valid point, however he doesn't answer Diamond.

#248 -

Originally Posted by the phantom

Bingo. Since I was at risk, I was holding my vote till the very end.

And then the end arrived, and I was wondering if the late Agan bandwagon would charge all the way to the front to tie with Nerwen and I, and so I was deciding who I should vote for out of those two. Like I said I thought that there had to be something going on with with Lommy and Agan and was thinking that I might want to vote that way just to see if anything turned up. Ner went ahead and I felt slightly safer but still felt like I might have to choose between the two, and next thing you know Nog posted.

I actually had my vote typed out and everything (it was for Nerwen but I had Agan's name ready to paste just in case) and was ready to post it in the final seconds, but when I refreshed my other window I saw that Nog had already posted so I figured I wouldn't bother.

phantom elaborates a little more, though it seems he only did so because in #243 Ka had given a possible speculation as to why he (phantom) had not voted.

I don't buy phantom's reasoning as to why he didn't vote. The reason itself is plausible - though coupled with the happenings before deadline yesterDay and his avoiding Diamond's question until a few posts later - is quite suspicious.

From yesterDay -

#216 @ 350pm PDT - phantom does a vote tally.
#219 @ 352pm PDT - He asks who hasn't voted yet.
#237 @ 400pm PDT - Another vote tally. (Last post before Nog's)


The last 13 votes had not been for phantom, I can understand his concern in being lynched - because no one ever really wants to be.. save for maybe a Cobbler. Yet it just doesn't quite fit. The last minutes of yesterDay seemed to be more of a decision between Agan and Nerwen. With Nerwen clearly leading for the last ten minutes or so of the Day.


X'd with Phantom, Mac, and Kath.

[Kath]

Ah, just saw this:

Something else... Kath, no offense intended, but are you sure your posts today are very helpful? It's a lot to read, but there's actually rather little new to learn from them...

Now who said I was trying to be helpful to others? These are mostly for my benefit, if anyone else gets something from them then good but it's not necessary. Also, maybe there's not a lot new to be learned, indeed there won't be much as it is often a summary with me commenting where I find something to comment on, but then I suppose it's giving you some information about me. I am sorry that it's a lot to read, I find that myself.

[satansaloser2005]

Holy buckets! So many posts! Stop it, geez, you're going to give me a coronary!

*skims as quickly as possible*


Okay, a few people are bothering me, but I'm not ready to vote yet as I've just given them an essentially cursory inspection....and stuff....

Phantom's beating the tar out of Madam Roa and vice versa, which I think is a little over the top, but since it's Phantom and I'm actually (sort of hehe) getting used to him now I'm all right with it for now.

Cabbie is quiet. Too quiet. Or have I missed his posts?

Let's see....who else? Grandpa Shasta, don't feel bad. I get suspected for being helpful too. It makes life fun.

Ummmm....snap I've got like five minutes. I know how Leggie feels....too much to sift through at the moment.

At the moment, and this is subject to and in fact probably will change, I'm leaning toward voting Cabbie due to his....well, due to nothing; that's the problem. He's suspicious based on the fact that he's not suspicious. Does that make sense? Didn't think so.

Bye for now! I'll read everything hopefully, but my vote post will be quick and painless, if I can squeeze one in at all. *mutters*



EDIT: crud. x'd with Grandma Izzy and my sis

[the phantom]

Izzy- I don't think you quite understand the last portion of my no-vote explanation. Perhaps I didn't explain well.

Originally Posted by me

I actually had my vote typed out and everything (it was for Nerwen but I had Agan's name ready to paste just in case) and was ready to post it in the final seconds, but when I refreshed my other window I saw that Nog had already posted so I figured I wouldn't bother.

I was actually going to vote at the very end. I was going to post it. It was going to be in time.

But Nog went ahead and ended the day. If you'll look at the time on his post, it is 11:00 PM GMT. In other words, he cut the thread off before the actual deadline for voting (11:01 PM GMT).

Originally Posted by Nog

All those votes with the marking 11.00 PM GMT will be counted. All those going over it will not be counted.

[Aganzir]

Ok, so I'm back, much later than I expected to be but anyway. And eeks, both my poor mummy and darling boyfriend already have a vote!

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

And who would think of the phantom more than anyone?

the phantom.

I so called it.

Ah, but about whom would the GW think more than anyone? The EW.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

The Lhuna thing I could have passed, but consider this one: Now what the heck is this about? "If you go on suspecting me, I'll have you lynched even though I think you are innocent!" ?

I think Greenie is being overreactive here. She takes a minor quote, misinterprets it and then makes a big fuss about it. I've seen it before that someone votes for a person just out of personal annoyance, and besides you're doing it yourself now (well not voting but) - phantom irritates you and therefore you behave like you were suspecting him, which may eventually lead to voting.
The way Greenie starts suspecting tp looks a bit forced to me, yet is less suspicious than the fact that she's still seemingly indecisive about people. It reminds me of a wolf who doesn't know her fellows.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Huh, why me? And you are talking about Legate, right?

Sorry if I was unclear (and I indeed was), I was in a hurry.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

And my dear brother Legate...voting for Aganzir but not wanting her lynched is very odd. And his explanation for it confused me even more. (Hmm...maybe it's because old love never dies ) But as suspicious as it is...I wonder if it's too suspicious. I mean, would a wolf actually act in such a way? Only if the EW told him to...

I think Legate's wavering with his vote was suspicious, but I was already suspicious of him. You on the other hand found his vote strange yesterday, yet today you raised the issue just a bit and immediately downplayed the possibility that his vote was wolfish.
ALSO... Legate suspected Brinn, analysed her and found her more innocent-looking. I find this interesting, and I'll certainly go through their posts when I have time.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

So I've looked at the posts of the NIGHT's victim, checked whom they suspected, decided that they are probably innocent.

Well I don't know. In the first game ever I played I learned the golden rule of being a hunter (thanks Nogrod ): "the hunter cannot be completely honest of his suspicions". So if the hunter does his job well, the wolves cannot be sure who his real main suspects are when they attack him.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I also noticed that Aganzir was very laid back about Lommy's accusations until rather late in the Day. It gives me a little bit of the feeling of a baddie trying to not put any unnecessary spotlight onto the points others give against her.

Frankly, I got annoyed with her later in the day. It's ok if someone just says I don't sit right with them, but I disliked the way she started to use her RL knowledge of me as a basis for accusations (see, now everyone for instance thinks that I'd love to be the EW which is something she invented herself, and besides she was wrong). And thus far she has always said she can't really read me (which, I think, is not something every player here knows), and now all of a sudden she claims to be the one who can figure me out the best (yes, she said she usually can't, but the way she behaves suggests completely the opposite).
I think if she's innocent she should just know better.

Originally Posted by THE Ka

I was a protector, and unfortunately a very obvious one not only to wolves, but others spotted as well.

Maybe because you kept dropping ranger hints all the time since you wanted to have fun? And we never figured out whether you were the cobbler or the ranger, and I actually thought the former.
Ok, that for nostalgia.

Originally Posted by Ka

then again, Agan have you been an ordo before? I don’t think in any WW we’ve played together.

Yes. But not before in any game I've played with you.

Since two of my main suspects have already been analysed while I was gone, I'll take a look at Lommy soon.

Ha, and I just noticed a quote by Gwath:

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

sally has ceased behaving oddly, so I can't justify voting against her. Darn.

This reminds me of the wolfish Gwath of some game who asked a player why he voted for Menel and told to give a reason so that he could vote for him, too.
Gwath, do you honestly think sallywolf couldn't change her playing style back to normal once that she's been spotted? I'll interpret your words again: "I don't really care whom I vote, sally's not my fellow/she's on the innocent list the EW gave/whatever, but now I don't have a reason to vote for her anymore as she's back to normal!"

Originally Posted by Legate

Speaking of that... don't you think someone may be just "roleplaying"?

I didn't even notice this before reading Shasta's analysis. Quite honestly, I think it has about the same amount of sense as (wolfish) me suggesting the wolves killed Valier because of her hunches instead of suspecting her to be the seer.

Originally Posted by Legate

Of course, mum, what do you think I am trying to do... *takes a sheep from the herd* I hope the Wolves haven't read Odyssey...

:-DDD
I must laugh at this a bit since you remind me so much of a recent RPG character of mine.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Legate seems pretty bad to me as well. There are a few things (most notably his vote yesterday) that just don't speak of innocence. In fact, I'd be comfortable voting either him or Mac today.

I'd be interested to know what those a few things are.

edit: xed since phantom's #378

[mormegil]

++Brinniel

Same reason as yesterday, she's not sitting right with me. I promise to get fairly caught up once life calms down a bit. I've been hit with far too many things lately.

[Isabellkya]

That is all well and good, but why do you need to push the rules?
The deadline is there for a reason, usually when people say any votes with the deadline timestamp on them will be counted, is for those last second/minute votes to slip in.
I don't believe it is intended for someone to plan ahead, to make their vote at the exact deadline time.

It still does not explain why you chose to wait to vote, and thus did not vote at all. You had time to vote - nearly 23 hours; yes you were in some amount of danger of being executed, however in the last ten minutes - Nerwen and Aganzir were in more danger than you.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I'd much rather see a continuation of the Lommy versus Agan battle.

I have a feeling I'm being... an object.

[Celuien]

5 more pages? I don't know how I'm going to catch up on this. I guess I'm just glad I made it back in time to read some of it. *sigh*

That's exactly what I'm going to do. Be back in a moment.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I'd be interested to know what those a few things are.

1. He seemed very agreeable, more of a "go-with-the-flow" type, early on (post #67 - I didn't write about every single subject in that post because it would have taken ages, it was gigantic!)

2. Post #71 - Early on, Phantom was gaining votes more than anyone else. Legate seemed to be encouraging Sally to vote for Phantom, while being able himself to stay away.

3. #95 - his first bit of wishy-washyness regarding Nerwen.

4. His flipfloppy vote. First, can't decide between Agan or Nerwen (#221). Votes Agan, but hopes she's not lynched (#229). Replies to Shasta, saying he didn't want to vote Nerwen or Agan (#233). Gives a contradictory reason for his vote (#236).

5. #332 - Comes across as flipfloppy regarding Phantom; first thinks he could be the EW, then thinks he's gifted, leaving himself open to change that opinion.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by the phantom

But Nog went ahead and ended the day. If you'll look at the time on his post, it is 11:00 PM GMT. In other words, he cut the thread off before the actual deadline for voting (11:01 PM GMT).

If you had voted at 11.00 and it would have read in your post your vote would have been counted in even if I had posted before at the same minute.

I'll promise to send the deadline post at 11.01 toDay so it looks neater if someone posts on 11.00.

But the rule is clear: All those votes with the marking 11.00 PM GMT will be counted. All those posted later will not be counted.


That also means that we continue going with the 'Downs time even if it seems now to be more like 4-5 minutess off.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I think Legate's wavering with his vote was suspicious, but I was already suspicious of him. You on the other hand found his vote strange yesterday, yet today you raised the issue just a bit and immediately downplayed the possibility that his vote was wolfish.
ALSO... Legate suspected Brinn, analysed her and found her more innocent-looking. I find this interesting, and I'll certainly go through their posts when I have time.

Good call. I don't think we should rule out the possibility that at least two wolves know each other, after all, and they might even have stumbled into being less cautions with their connections because everyone assumed they didn't.

I am leaning most toward voting for tp or Legate at the moment.