Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Many people before me have made their own voting lists already; my daughter even made one with timestamps. But I want to create my own list, so I can draw ideas from them as I go along. People can say anything they like, but when one makes a vote, one commits to either a person's lynching or salvation.

Problem is, we don't know if the wolves do know each other. Many cases have been made for this, but . . . what if they do know each other? (It makes them more effective by DAY, after all, and if caught, they can explain away whatever connexions come up by saying that they can't be lupine connexions, since the wolves wouldn't know each other.) What if those saying or agreeing to the impossibility of three talking wolves are actually wolves themselves?

Hence, I will go on with my analysis. Since we only have three villagers whose roles are known, I'll focus my analysis on voting motives (why they voted) of people who joined bandwaggons (which are created to kill, after all). Times are GMT + 8. Known innocents are underlined.

08:26pm morm - Brinn (Brinn - 1)
10:24pm Sally - tp (Brinn - 1, tp - 1)
10:54pm Gwath - Sally (Brinn - 1, tp - 1, Sally - 1)
02:25am Kit - morm (Brinn - 1, tp - 1, Sally - 1, morm - 1)
03:34am Nerwen - Cailín (Brinn - 1, tp - 1, Sally - 1, morm - 1, Cailín - 1)
03:48am Roa - tp (Brinn - 1, tp - 2, Sally - 1, morm - 1, Cailín - 1)
04:44am Celu - Izzy (Brinn - 1, tp - 2, Sally - 1, morm - 1, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1)
05:22am Rikae - morm (Brinn - 1, tp - 2, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1)
05:26am Izzy - Roa (Brinn - 1, tp - 2, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1)
05:30am Shasta - tp (Brinn - 1, tp - 3, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1)
05:43am Eönwë - tp (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1)
05:56am Cailín - Nerwen (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 1)
05:57am Ka - Celu (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 1, Celu - 1)
06:00am Greenie - Gwath (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 1, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1)
06:09am McCaber - Nerwen (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 2, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1)
06:10am Mac - Legate (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 2, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1)
06:15am Lal - Nerwen (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 3, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1)
06:28am Durelin - Nerwen (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 4, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1)
06:43am Lommy - Agan (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 4, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1, Agan - 1)
06:45am Di - Nerwen (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 5, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1, Agan - 1)
06:46am Volo - Agan (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 5, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1, Agan - 2)
06:53am Brinn - Agan (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 5, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1, Agan - 3)
06:57am Legate - Agan (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 5, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1, Agan - 4)
06:59am Agan - Nerwen (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 6, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1, Agan - 4)

Bandwaggons:

• The Fantine bandwaggon came up quite early, and it was not sudden - Fantine was being his usual self, provoking strong (often negative) reaction from the villagers. Interesting was Eönwë's vote (q.v.), and his previous post (q.v..) He has made one other post in the game, an in-character one. Nowhere do I see how he came to be suspicious of Fantine's motives 'the whole time'.
• The Nerwen bandwaggon was started by Cailín, who accused her of seeming to be helpful, but actually contributing nothing (qq.v. 105, 165). Most of the other who joined it, however, have less than concrete reasons for doing so (qq.v. McCaber's 175, Di's 208.)
• The Agan bandwaggon was started near the end of DAY 1 by Lommy, who thought Agan to be suspicious from the very beginning, but thought that voting for her would end up being a waste (qq.v. 183, 205.) It is the least suspicious bandwaggon to me.

More later.