Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

What Diamond Thinks:

1. Volo was the seer.
2. He voted for Aganzir.
3. Aganzir is evil!
4. Lynch her! Dance in her blood!
5. Volo probably didn't dream about her, anyway.
6. But I do so wish for a good blood-dance.(Di)

There were no NIGHT activity (Seer dream, etc.) on NIGHT 1, so last NIGHT was supposed to be the first dream.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

There were no NIGHT activity (Seer dream, etc.) on NIGHT 1, so last NIGHT was supposed to be the first dream.

DADDY!!!!!! I'm so happy you're safe!!!!!



And good point. I didn't think about that; there's no WAY he dreamed ANYTHING. Thanks for mentioning it. (Can we kill Agan later anyway? )

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Many people before me have made their own voting lists already; my daughter even made one with timestamps. But I want to create my own list, so I can draw ideas from them as I go along. People can say anything they like, but when one makes a vote, one commits to either a person's lynching or salvation.

Problem is, we don't know if the wolves do know each other. Many cases have been made for this, but . . . what if they do know each other? (It makes them more effective by DAY, after all, and if caught, they can explain away whatever connexions come up by saying that they can't be lupine connexions, since the wolves wouldn't know each other.) What if those saying or agreeing to the impossibility of three talking wolves are actually wolves themselves?

Hence, I will go on with my analysis. Since we only have three villagers whose roles are known, I'll focus my analysis on voting motives (why they voted) of people who joined bandwaggons (which are created to kill, after all). Times are GMT + 8. Known innocents are underlined.

08:26pm morm - Brinn (Brinn - 1)
10:24pm Sally - tp (Brinn - 1, tp - 1)
10:54pm Gwath - Sally (Brinn - 1, tp - 1, Sally - 1)
02:25am Kit - morm (Brinn - 1, tp - 1, Sally - 1, morm - 1)
03:34am Nerwen - Cailín (Brinn - 1, tp - 1, Sally - 1, morm - 1, Cailín - 1)
03:48am Roa - tp (Brinn - 1, tp - 2, Sally - 1, morm - 1, Cailín - 1)
04:44am Celu - Izzy (Brinn - 1, tp - 2, Sally - 1, morm - 1, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1)
05:22am Rikae - morm (Brinn - 1, tp - 2, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1)
05:26am Izzy - Roa (Brinn - 1, tp - 2, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1)
05:30am Shasta - tp (Brinn - 1, tp - 3, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1)
05:43am Eönwë - tp (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1)
05:56am Cailín - Nerwen (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 1)
05:57am Ka - Celu (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 1, Celu - 1)
06:00am Greenie - Gwath (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 1, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1)
06:09am McCaber - Nerwen (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 2, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1)
06:10am Mac - Legate (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 2, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1)
06:15am Lal - Nerwen (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 3, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1)
06:28am Durelin - Nerwen (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 4, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1)
06:43am Lommy - Agan (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 4, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1, Agan - 1)
06:45am Di - Nerwen (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 5, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1, Agan - 1)
06:46am Volo - Agan (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 5, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1, Agan - 2)
06:53am Brinn - Agan (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 5, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1, Agan - 3)
06:57am Legate - Agan (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 5, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1, Agan - 4)
06:59am Agan - Nerwen (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 6, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1, Agan - 4)

Bandwaggons:

• The Fantine bandwaggon came up quite early, and it was not sudden - Fantine was being his usual self, provoking strong (often negative) reaction from the villagers. Interesting was Eönwë's vote (q.v.), and his previous post (q.v..) He has made one other post in the game, an in-character one. Nowhere do I see how he came to be suspicious of Fantine's motives 'the whole time'.
• The Nerwen bandwaggon was started by Cailín, who accused her of seeming to be helpful, but actually contributing nothing (qq.v. 105, 165). Most of the other who joined it, however, have less than concrete reasons for doing so (qq.v. McCaber's 175, Di's 208.)
• The Agan bandwaggon was started near the end of DAY 1 by Lommy, who thought Agan to be suspicious from the very beginning, but thought that voting for her would end up being a waste (qq.v. 183, 205.) It is the least suspicious bandwaggon to me.

More later.

[Gwathagor]

Thanks, that's helpful.

[Lhunardawen]

Thoughts on page 2 posts

Mac - said he didn't suspect Roa because he disagreed with her, but seems to have suspected those who agree with her as well.

Originally Posted by Mac

I'm not sure what's worse: Volo making a statement that can be read as a wolf slip (but I remember an ancestor of him making a wolf slip while being innocent, too ), or A Little Green pointing out the quote - without any opinion of her own - in order to have the mob feast on it while keeping her own hands clean.

This suspicion makes me quite suspicious of him. It's too...stretchy.

Originally Posted by Mac

Thank you for liking me, Legate, and apologies for not being able to return that sentiment.

Ring ring ring! Mac is in the red zone.

I still don't understand why some people thought Cailin's list to be suspicious. If that was her way of trying to identify the wolves, then it's her decision. I mean, come on, it's not as if the EW would follow her list. And if she is the EW and with that post tried to influence our lynch choice somewhat, it's not as if we would follow her list. At least she had a mind of her own, shared what's in it, and tried to help out in identifying possible wolves.

Originally Posted by Legate

By the way, Volo's points (like that list 1.2.3.4. of his) make sense, however for some reason I have the feeling that he's not being himself.

Now here's the quote I was looking for! It makes me a bit more suspicious of Leggie (I already am because I think he's an excellent wolf choice) because it could be the reason Volo was killed. If he is thinking as an innocent as he plays, which I think is what should be done by a wolf, he could very well make this comment out loud. Or something. It made sense in my head.

Page 2 summary (I can't just quote everything and say "I agree" or "I disagree" and repeat points):
Mac is highly suspicious.
Legate is suspicious.
Agan and Cailin seem innocent.
Roa is helpful. Thank you, Ma'am.
Durelin feels dodgy.
Sally is quite scary.

Mind you, this is just page 2, so this could change.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Durelin

Hmm...now that you know he's the seer, you totally know how he feels...

Well, I suspected Aganzir yesterDay before Volo was a known innocent and I still suspect her toDay. I see nothing wrong with using a known innocent's quote to support my feelings about another player. Of course, Volo could easily be wrong with her, but as I do suspect Aganzir I think he may be onto something...

Originally Posted by Ka

I'm still sizing her motives now, but so far she seems her usual self, or just more open.

Usual self? But Aganzir's usual self could just as easily be evil. After all, she's been evil in almost half of the games she's played...

Okay, it looks like Roa just made a one mile long post. I admit I've only skimmed through it so far, but I'll re-read to see if I can get any opinions from it. So far it seems she makes a strong argument against phantom, but I don't think she's said much about anyone else. Mommy dearest, as determined as you are to lynch tp, do you have thoughts on others as well? I'm just curious...

Alright, off to read that giant of a post more thoroughly...

[Brinniel]

Read and done. Some thoughts:

Originally Posted by Roa

In this post, phantom tries to make it seem as though the EW's werewolf choice was random, when it isn't. The list of candidates was not that long, and even if there was overlap, it's unlikely that it occured more than once.

I never liked how phantom said the EW didn't pick the wolves because in a way, that's not true. As I said yesterDay:

Originally Posted by me

And yes I know the EW didn't specifically choose the wolves last Night. But they did make a list...therefore each person on that list was chosen for some reason to be considered for a wolf. Anyone who is a wolf is one because of the EW.

Originally Posted by tp

Oh, and as far as deciding who we should try and lynch, the EW or WWs, does it really matter much who we gun for?

Goodness...I never noticed that quote before. Thanks for pointing it out, Roa. Flip-flopping always causes me to raise an eyebrow, especially after there's been increasing pressure placed on the flip-flopper.

Okay, this weird thought suddenly popped into my head: Would it be characteristic of the EW to instruct a werewolf to intentionally not vote? Hmm...though that's probably too much of a stretch...

[Lhunardawen]

Page 3

Originally Posted by Greenie

Sally and Gwath's votes both made me fairly uneasy, though for different reasons. Sally's, like someone said, looked a bit too easy. Gwath's I don't like because voting without stating any reasons for the choice is both unhelpful (if having suspicions about someone, one should at least reason them a bit if he really wants that one lynched) and irritating and never fails to make me suspicious.

I agree, especially about Gwath. Suspicious vote, that.

Originally Posted by Agan

I disagree. Even though the degree of randomness is a bit smaller than usual, there are too many different possibilities for speculating to be of any use - it's still waste of time. And just speculating on things like that instead of talking about people benefits only the evil team.

How can my dear mother Cailin be suspected for being speculative? Given most of us know practically nothing at this point, speculating is about one of the very few things we can do.

Eonwe's first post: Okay, that was really weird. Misplaced. This isn't an RPG, not even an RPG-style game. Why anyone would spend time and effort crafting such a post instead of arguing with someone or repeating obvious points or indulging in far-fetched speculation is beyond me. It almost makes me suspicious of myself for finding it suspicious.

He's either a bored innocent, a clueless innocent, or a wolf wanting to make his presence known but not wanting to give us something to chew on about himself. I don't think the EW would ask him to do that, though - that would be silly.

Leggie is really so sensible, I can almost feel the fur. (Gone are the days when sensibility meant innocence. )

Durelin becomes even more dodgy. Says so much yet says absolutely nothing. And how dare you call my phantom 'dear,' you wretched twin of mine!

Originally Posted by Leggie, to Lommy

I don't like this that much. Not sure why, but following someone with a suspicion like that... my dear sally does not seem suspicious in any way, she is behaving like she's always, and also she simply voted and that's it. Nothing weird there.

Whoa, protective boyfriend! But the EW wouldn't protect his wolf this openly, so no, I still think you're just a wolf. Maybe trying to protect an innocent to gain innocent points. Oh, right, she's your girlfriend.

Page 3 summary: My 'suspicious' list now includes Mac, Leggie, Dury (it was always like this, sally), (speaking of whom) sally, and Gwath to a lesser degree.

This is incredibly time-consuming and probably won't do it for the next pages - at least not like this. But at this point I have quite enough willingness to vote for Mac (more likely) or Legate (less likely).

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by Mac

Rikae has joined the ranks of those who want to go after werewolves and not the EW, which makes her slightly suspicious, at least from my point of view.

Oh, Mac, you are sooo getting my vote toDay. Unless something unexpected happens. Which should happen shortly, as I'm voting soon.

Originally Posted by sally, post #144

*hates her lack of participation*

This is weird. If you check the replies list, she has one of the most posts to this thread. If she still feels she isn't helping much despite that fact, she probably knows she isn't - but why point it out? It feels wolvish to me, like she's trying to get some sympathy for admitting that she can't do something that she doesn't really want to do (i.e. be useful).

To add to suspicious list:
-Eonwe

Is that before or after you've killed them?

Anyway, I've been quite suspicious of his motives the whole time, so:

And he proceeds to vote for him. Lame reasoning, really. If there was any reasoning at all.

-McCaber for being submarine

Be back later, with a vote.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Please, stop posting for a while, so that I can post for up-to-date, okay? I have refreshed when I started to read the last page, but that must be a long time ago... I wonder if the next age won't be up by the time I finish... Whatever.

Like my first post yesterDay, this is noted down (actually, yesterDay I FIRST read it all and THEN replied to the already marked quotes, but whatver) during the course of reading and immediately replied on what I had something to say to. So, here we go:

Originally Posted by the phantom

1) What's with the Lommy-Agan thing? Surely there's something to it?

6) I think Sally was probably innocent yesterday.

1) Not necessarily.

6) That's very well phrased. I would like to point out here that whoever was innocent yesterday, may not be so today, and the same goes for Gifted. Really, at this stage of the game, it is not much about us, but mainly about the GW and the Gifted.

Heh, is it just me or is TP somewhat more cheery today - has he been scried for a Wolf? (the question would be, if not for the other side...)

Originally Posted by Brinniel

My grandpappy and my sister in one night?! Someone is obviously out to get my family...

If it's not you, sis...

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Legate & yesterday's voting. If that wasn't suspicious, nothing is.

"I want to jump the bandwagon as there's even a chance she'd be lynched (and she suspects me) and now I must explain it to everybody so as not to look I was indeed just jumping in the bandwagon!"

My thoughts when voting were nothing more than what I posted (i.e. that schizophrenia). But whatever...

Originally Posted by Durelin

So stop mentioning ____ and making ____ feel he is at the center of attention.

Hey, that's an intriguing idea. Let's make it seem like he is nothing more than air. (Huh... but what if he is the EW? Then it will be up to the GW to scry him. Okay, GW, scry him and we'll ignore him... but wait this will do exactly what he wants... and being scried, he would become a Gifted, if not... hey... but... NOW... SERIOUSLY! An idea just struck me... what if he is the EW and trying to disguise himself from scrying by being so vocal and annoying with his "scry me, scry me"?!???!)

Originally Posted by the phantom

My question about the voting is this- did the WWs or EW even have to bother worrying about anything?

Good point, because I think they didn't. However the way you are posting this makes me feel like you are too forceful in suggesting something. So while I agree on that, I don't know, the feeling from you... is simply worse than yesterDay.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

It seems like someone wants to clip the Volo family tree from the root up! I'm the only gaffer left now...

Speaking of that... don't you think someone may be just "roleplaying"? At least on the first Night, I would think, there wasn't many concrete things for the Wolves, resp. EW to choose from... you know, like, they could technically target whomever they wish.

Di is... whatever. Let me use the too common phrase: "I'll be watching her" - which, in this village of the size of a smaller suburb of New York, means a lot!!!

Nilp, your sig popping at me in the middle of the thread irritates me - if at least it weren't boldened...

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Why are they killing off my family?!?!?! First Nogrod, then Nerwen, then Volo and Kitanna! Hide yourselves, Legate and Brinn! Quickly!

Of course, mum, what do you think I am trying to do... *takes a sheep from the herd* I hope the Wolves haven't read Odyssey...

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

(And Legate darling, by the way, you best explain your little bit of flipflopping yesterday, voting Agan and yet not wanting her killed. Acting like that could get you lynched, and you know I wouldn't want that)

Sally, my dear, you only should look at what I said there. I really did not know what would happen and did not have time to think it over. Thinking of that, I could have taken tp's lazy-relaxing stance and just not vote at all - but that's a habit from the WW games, the obligation to actually vote; so I did. It did not matter in the end anyway, not?

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

I'm not sure what to make of this killing all in one family thing. One far-fetched theory I can contrive is that the wolves probably come mostly from the Greenie line (not to suspect Greenie herself of anything), and are killing off the Volo line because killing their own will reduce their connections and make it more likely for them to be lynched. But then it was already learned from history that placing all eggs in one basket (gifteds/wolves in one family) is a bad idea, and it would be rather odd for the present EW to do as the past GW did. Hmm.

I don't think so, cf. above what I said about the possibility of "roleplaying". Even now, let's consider this: even if all the wolves were from the green line, sorry, Greenie line, they most probably just post their ideas to the EW and he/she picks one of them, or goes with some idea of her own. And there will be surely a space for someone to kill even in the Greenie family. But mainly, this was Night 1. Or 2, actually. Whatever. And that is, I think, as I said above, that it did not matter much whom they pick - they had very much of a free hand, at least now.

(Phantom in reply to Lhuna about him being a Wizard)

Originally Posted by the phantom

Now that would possibly be even more fun than switching sides! More pressure and all, but still fun no doubt. So much power... mwu ha ha ha!!

Hmm... Let's think here... if I am indeed a Wizard and your finger-pointing leads the other Wizard to discover me... well, that seems almost suicidal on your part, cause you know I'd feel like killing you then.

So that makes me think you don't really believe it, or that you wouldn't mind dying to expose a Wizard. But which one do you think you are exposing, eh? If you think I'm the GW then you're probably evil. If you think I'm the EW then you must be aware that I will kill you, thus I seriously doubt that you are gifted (a gifted would not take that sort of risk).

Ieee. Judging from this, TP could very well actually BE a Wizard. The latter paragraphs make it seem as if he was somewhat... nervous.

Originally Posted by Diamond18

Hnuh? But the Good Wizard did Scry hin on Night 1, right? If he didn't get to then dream, what's the point? It's like getting a badge that says I'm A Seer, Ask Me How but not getting to actually be the Seer yet.

I wonder if, according to the rules, Volo got the chance to dream on Night 2? (will someone verify it in the rules? Please please, I am too lazy now ) So I think he HAD one dream, only he did not much enjoy it himself (that's to you questioning his usefulness).

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

You know, I'm really curious about all these people who say, "Phantom can't be a wolf- he's too noisy/loud/obvious/whatever." Since when has NOT been that way, wolf or not? But I have seen him as both, and I've seen him take a real leadership role and really help out the village... when he's a good guy. I've seen him be loud and distracting and post erroneously... when he's a bad guy. Phantom is nothing if not bold, no matter what role he has.

And I'll add this- last Dueling Wizard's game, I looked at phantom with two options: wolf or dead. I erred on the side of caution and picked dead. I don't believe this EW is the same. And phantom's posting thus far had really convinced me that he is not on the villagers' side, whatever his role may be.

Now... err... what to make of that... let's say, I think, that if Roa is evil (EW/wolf), she may as well be going after tp, who, in this case, will be a goodie/ordo.

But that's just one idea. It is "what if", a condition that would have to be fulfilled, i.e. her being a baddie, or him being a goodie - and we could start to think further from that.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

I gave continuous reasons for believing phantom to be a baddie. I backed up with posts and reasoning. Sally did not. Her vote appeared almost random. I am not like some people *coughMaccough* who only distrust people who don't agree with them. I don't care if you agree with me or not. If you don't have good reasoning, or your reasoning is clearly faulty, I will suspect you. It's as simple as that. I'm not convinced that Sally truly thought phantom was guilty, or that she wasn't trying to start something in that direction.

Hm, hm... Roa seems logical and genuine here. Very genuine. Arr, but I know she is clever enough to *seem* so if she wishes; what more, if she is a Wolf, she may actually BE genuine (especially if the EW did not tell them who she is or who the other Wolves are; and even if she would do things like give them a list of people to go after, as it has been mentioned before, then Roa would surely find between themselves a person with "faulty reasoning" - and bingo) - following a certain pattern of behavior is a good way for a Wolf to cover himself with, as we all know even from normal games.

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

the phantom is a relatively easy lynch target. I mean, if I had my way, I would have him lynched now just to be sure of his allegiance. This is one reason I think he might be a wizard, because he posts as if he has nothing to lose by getting himself lynched. (But hmm, the same could be said of some ordinary villagers.)

But then, the EW might have assumed he would not be lynched because
1. the villagers would think as I thought
2. the phantom is just so much fun to be around

and turned him into a wolf. Tada! Instant protection.

I was thinking exactly along the same lines lately. But... well, who knows.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Honestly, you're sort of right. I'm not used to Phantom's behavior, and from anyone else it would scream "vote me vote me" so I did. I didn't expect him to get lynched (and at the moment I'm happy he didn't; if nothing else he's entertaining) but of the people whose posts I had time to look at, he looked the most suspicious at the time. I'll try to be more careful with my votes in the future though.

Hey, but this is very weird. Somewhat troubling. My dear, are you SURE you do not have sinister intentions here? This is really like a wolfy-style excuse. I don't like that.

Originally Posted by Durelin

Volo openly agreed with Lommy (and we know now he was the seer, yeah, whatever),

Yeah, whatever, so why mention it, as we know he couldn't even know anything? Let us remember that he didn't, otherwise we may be mislead, like, I believe it was Di on the page before? Yes, it was her.

People, it's nice to read, but post at least shorter posts, like the ones before 299... that was so nice and smooth and fast to read!

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I feel kinda stupid for asking this, but what exactly do you mean by "submarine-like"? Maybe you've already explained this, but with six pages of Day 1 I'm bound to miss something...
(...)
I think I missed this post yesterDay, but it's a good quote on how I also feel about Aganzir. Especially about the bantering...what Volo wrote here is how I feel but was unable to put into exact words.

Ad submarine: I thought about it already yesterDay, and I think she means "under the radar"-fly... er, swimming.

But what you say to Volo's post... I don't know why, I don't feel it's genuine. Odd, but today I am growing more attentive of you, sis.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

It's already annoying to me. I won't lie, that was part of the reason behind my vote. Most of it, though, was the simple fact that even if Phantom is innocent, he doesn't seem to be helping very much. I wonder (assuming he's a wolf) if the EW didn't tell him to draw as much attention from everyone as he can... it certainly seems to be a possibility, given that most of the recent discussion has revolved around him.

No, that's a thing I don't believe. Besides, cf. what I said above - these posts are at least short to read... : )

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

No, the two are not mutually exclusive, especially if you are both wolves who don't know each other, or Sally is wolf who doesn't realize you are the EW, or she's the EW and she just wants to kill you to look good (as I did with Nogrod in the previous DW). So, once again, you post faulty logic in an attempt to clear yourself.

And how many times have we seen the "I know you suspect me, but I think your just a mistaken innocent," line from a wolf trying to not appear overly defensive?

Roa really goes after the phantom (oh really? What a discover I made here! I'm sure no one of you noticed that before). I outlined something above... But really... not all too sure what to think of it.

Originally Posted by THE Ka

While I cannot be completely certain that this was the case this time, I'm going to find it a bit hard to place suspicion on him simply for first-day indecisiveness (world knows I'm 'guilty' of it as well, take Legate's last WW for an example. I don't even think I voted the first day because I hadn't a clue).

Hey, hey, hey, but YOU were a WOLF back there!!! JUST A MO...!!!
What, are you trying to signalize to me, trying to pick a fellow wolf? Bad guess, miss! I am not one! ARE YOU???

Besides, there's something in your post... all the calculating about which wolves would the EW save for later or whatever it was... and your kind-of backing on Celuien... which look odd to me. (The question is, if it would make sense for a wolf to behave in this backing-way in such a big village where nobody may as well care [at least for now], unless Cel were made a wolf overnight - or you, for that matter [and she were a wolf already from before] - or unless, err, and I forgot what I wanted to say. Great. Later, maybe.)

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Also, I don't know why you are so certain that the EW gave her wolves possible lynch candidates. I never did, and my wolves did just fine. The GW did something like that for the entire village, but only after his role had been revealed. In fact, I even encouraged my wolves to lynch as they liked. Someone acts suspiciously? Lynch them! It makes the wolves harder to trace because they aren't having to lie about their suspicions.

Right, that was just what I said about you and your "I will lynch whomever I see unreasonable" thing above.

Oh my, Tp, I don't mind you posting baseless and silly posts, as long as they are short, but your most annoying posts are the frequent ones when they are long. Shut up already and let the rest of us talk :P

Besides, your "statistic" remind me of tgwbs.

Originally Posted by Cailín

So they got a Seer. Bad luck? Or something more? I suppose the evil team were trying to guess who the gifteds were -- considering who a wizard might choose, and also perhaps any subtle hints within their words. I'm not sure what these would be but let's have a look. (Mind you, it's also likely wolves wouldn't want a kill that leads back to them).

Volo

#9 role-playing

#55 madness, madness! and dangerous, dangerous! Funny stuff from Volo, but could it be interpreted as a sign?

#84 Numerous vague suspicions: Green, sally, phantom, Celuien, Cailin.

#85 Mentions his typo ''We Wolves''. Maybe mind is stretching too much here but could that be interpreted in a different way?

#114 Nothing really

#128 Chastises Lalaith somewhat

#133 Questions Legate

#150 Suspects Aganzir, but also agrees with Aganzir in suspecting Legate

#154 Defends phantom

#159 Questions Eonwe

#163, 173 Nothing of note

#194 Speculation about wizard choices (and #201 I suppose)

#209 Votes Aganzir

(Plus 3 other joke posts)

But WHY would Volo give out any signs? He had no dream yet, and unless he were in the danger of being lynched or something, there was no need for him to give hints about his personality. Unless the Gifteds were not informed of each other's identities... but then... well, it could have been, but would he really wish to contact the others? A Seer, I would think, would not do so... although Volo might. : D

Originally Posted by the phantom

Anyway, it's almost 2 and I have to get up early for work. I'll try and check in then but I won't really be able to post much till around lunch time (6 hours before the deadline).

Thank Eru! ; ) : D

NOOOO! THERE IS ANOTHER PAGE ALREADY!!!

AND A LONG ONE, TOO!!! NOOO!!! (It must have been there already when I refreshed! AAARGH!!!)

I AM GOING TO POST. NOW. I HAVE ENOUGH OF YOU.

The thoughts on Page 9 coming up after this. Hopefully.

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by Le Fantome

You know good and well that the GW has been thinking about me more than anyone thus far.

And who would think of the phantom more than anyone?

the phantom.

I so called it.

[Aganzir]

Only a short post since I must soon be off.

Originally Posted by the phantom

There's no need for the Seer to drop hints and such, or even indicate that he knows anything about anyone, for his dreams will survive him with the GW.

True, but the GW cannot reveal them to the village while remaining hidden herself. It would make sense that the seer left some hints, at least if he has dreamt of a wolf. I suppose naming people known innocents might be too risky.
But this doesn't really matter right now as Volo didn't get a dream on night 1, which also means that my theory of him finding Legate a baddie is not valid. I couldn't find it in the rules if he got a dream last night or not, but in this case it doesn't really matter as the GW was able to dream herself anyway.

Originally Posted by THE Ka

While I cannot be completely certain that this was the case this time, I'm going to find it a bit hard to place suspicion on him simply for first-day indecisiveness.

I agree with you here. I know I'm probably contradicting myself now, but his vote is one of those easy, suspicious things a wolf would love to accuse of *coughBrinncough* (though that doesn't make him innocent, especially as we don't know if the wolves know one another).

Originally Posted by Ka

If I was out harvesting likely wolves to act in my best interest I'd definately pick Agan because she's a natural, but not immediately because it is likely there would be suspicion. I'd rather save my best wolf for last, when everyone's gotten, scryed, etc. to the point where thinking someone is an actual wolf is old news.

Thanks. I am flattered.

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

How can my dear mother Cailin be suspected for being speculative? Given most of us know practically nothing at this point, speculating is about one of the very few things we can do..

Maybe it's just differences in personal playing styles, but to me speculating means rather "talking something that's not really necessary and wasting time". I am aware that we have to start from somewhere, but even halfway through day 1 there should be other topics to be found.
I suppose I just like to keep things more simple than many others, but finding the wolves & the EW should be more important than endlessly discussing possible tactics.

I think Eönwë isn't really that suspicious. This is his first game (as far as I know Eonwe has played earlier, but Eönwë hasn't), and his vote really looks more like newbie-ish than wolfish. Personally I doubt the EW would pick a newbie wolf, but then again no one usually wants to lynch the newbies right in the beginning, and people are also otherwise more willing to forgive newbies if they do something weird, so I can't say I'm sure. But I would let Eönwë live for a while now.

Ok must go now, I'll be back and elaborate on Brinn & Lommy later.

edit: xed with Greenie and two Legates

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I got to irritate at least one person here - my work is done.

I've been thinking about the NIGHT's kill, and I came up with this notion: The Dark Side fears killing the Hunter above all.

Think about it: they have four Wolves now (=2 kills/NIGHT), and with the absence of double lynching, we could kill only a maximum of one Wolf per DAY. So, even if we get one lupine pelt today, with a successful EW-scry, they would still have 2 kills.

Therefore, the only thing they fear is a kill beyond the DAY's lynching. That only means the Hunter.

So I've looked at the posts of the NIGHT's victim, checked whom they suspected, decided that they are probably innocent.

Kitanna voted for morm, and suspected . . . well, no-one else.

Volo voted for Agan; suspected Legate, Greenie, Sally (mildly), tp (at first) Celuien, and Cailín; and defended tp and Agan (at first).

So morm, Agan, and Legate are probably innocent. (Or they are controlled by a very bold EW--or perhaps even one of them is! But I'll stick with what I said first.) Greenie, Sally-poo, and tp are less so.

I kept thinking along the same lines and came up with another thing: Since they can maintain 2 kills/NIGHT from this point on (so long as they don't stumble upon a Hunter that knows his job), the EW could tell the Wolves the identity of their fellows (well, perhaps not all). Since there's no double lynching, even a reformed Wolf with knowledge of two (or even three) cannot damage the Dark Side all that much, since the EW can replace the Wolf lost to lynching . . .

(If the EW is confident that all of her minions will survive DAY 1, she could even have them talking from the start!)

I have to vote soon, so I have to find someone to vote for. *sigh*

[Macalaure]

The Nerwen-waggon:

There's some talk about her on page 3, but with only Durelin and Cailin finding her suspicious. On page 4, Lalaith mentions concerns.

On page 5, Cailin starts the waggon, at a time when it was not obvious that it would take off. Her pointing out that it's not a retribution vote raises my eyebrow, though. phantom starts directing people towards voting for Nerwen, on the sole reason that she's a possible wizard. McCaber chucks in his vote. If TP and MC are in cahoots, this would have been too glaringly obvious, so I don't think so. Both, however, look bad on their own. Lalaith adds her vote. Aganzir mentions she doesn't understand the waggon. Durelin adds her vote. Lommy mentions concerns about it, agreeing with Agan. Volo and Brinniel are against it, too. Legate starts his fence-sitting on the matter.

Page 6: Diamond chucks her vote in, and I don't know what to think of it. Legate decides against it. Aganzir votes her to save herself.

phantom indeed looks like the EW here, but would he really play like this if he was a wizard?
I will pay more attention to Di and McCaber. Lalaith, too.
I don't agree with what Cailin and Durelin said about Nerwen, but at least their votes make sense.
The dissuaders, Aganzir, Lommy, and Brinniel look good, but since evildoers like looking good, it doesn't automatically point towards innocence.
I don't know what to do with Legate.


Volo:

Without a seer dream, and with probably only very limited knowledge given from the GW, I doubt Volo was killed because he somehow revealed himself, unless the evil team thought his "we" slip meant something. I think he was involved and therefore inconvenient. He was mostly trusted, but and apparently the EW didn't see him as a future wolf. I wonder how much the EW dictated his wolves and how much he let them make their own decision. The ones Volo was most inconvenient to are Aganzir and Legate. Both had more dangerous opponents yesterday, but if the evil team was looking for a common denominator, Volo could have been it. Legate's suspicion of Volo is half-hearted, which I think is at least slightly suspicious.

I have the nagging feeling I'm interpreting too much into this...


PS: Both Volo and Nerwen have their names in their signatures, which makes searching for their posts very convenient, because I didn't have to scroll down after finding a post.

[Macalaure]

I forgot to add Aganzir's reaction to Volo yesterday. It basically comes down to one "". I also noticed that Aganzir was very laid back about Lommy's accusations until rather late in the Day. It gives me a little bit of the feeling of a baddie trying to not put any unnecessary spotlight onto the points others give against her.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Mac always suspects those who disagree with him (shamefully), so I don't find that suspicious in itself.

Eh? I know I have a reputation for auto-trusting those who agree with me, but I don't think I always mistrust those who disagree.

Originally Posted by Nilp

Therefore, the only thing they fear is a kill beyond the DAY's lynching. That only means the Hunter.

I agree about the evil team's fear of the hunter, especially since the GW can give him all information about dreamt of wolves (high hunter success rate!). I just wanted to add that they also fear that a wolf is taken away by the GW's scry.

It's funny that we have similar ideas, but reach completely different conclusions.

There was no seer dream yet, and the hunter doesn't necessarily pursue the same people at day and night, so I don't think the risk was very high - this early.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Interesting was Eönwë's vote (q.v.), and his previous post (q.v..) He has made one other post in the game, an in-character one. Nowhere do I see how he came to be suspicious of Fantine's motives 'the whole time'.

I was reading the thread throughout th day (at school), Its just that I by the time I'd finished reading there were always more.

Originally Posted by Durelin

I am almost positive Eonwe has played before.

I have never played WW before, anywhere.

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

Eonwe's first post: Okay, that was really weird. Misplaced. This isn't an RPG, not even an RPG-style game. Why anyone would spend time and effort crafting such a post instead of arguing with someone or repeating obvious points or indulging in far-fetched speculation is beyond me. It almost makes me suspicious of myself for finding it suspicious.

He's either a bored innocent, a clueless innocent, or a wolf wanting to make his presence known but not wanting to give us something to chew on about himself. I don't think the EW would ask him to do that, though - that would be silly.

I'm somewhere in btween the first two (after all, I've never played any form of WW before.

Ok- thats cleared, hopefully. I've never played Werewolf.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

To add to suspicious list:
-Eonwe

And he proceeds to vote for him. Lame reasoning, really. If there was any reasoning at all.

That was not the reason. I had already built up a whole case, but sadly never had time to post it (and now it's lost, (precious, lost!)). I was also a slight joke (Digest? Hmm?). Anyway, I still find him kinda suspicious. The "Vote me! Lynch me! scry me! curse me" idea and there's the whole "Am I a WW or am I the EW" thing too.

Anyway, I'll finish reading posts and then post my thoughts

x-ed with Cailin

[Durelin]

Have you ever played with Di, Cailin?

[Durelin]

Oh yes, you must have. I remember your EW pick list.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Ah, but about whom would the GW think more than anyone? The EW.

Ah! the phantom is both, the good and the evil wizard at once!

Originally Posted by Di

Everyone else seems so vanilla in comparison that I'm having trouble forming opinions or focus on any of them.

That's how I feel, too. Less joking, less niceness, more blood, please.


Well, I haven't become any wiser on who to vote for since my last post. Here's my options for today:

Somewhat suspicious
Legate, Aganzir

A vague bad feeling
Kath, Rikae, Diamond, Cailin, Roa, Lalaith, Celuien, McCaber

Not really suspicious, but not too sure
Lily, Izzy, Nilp, Sally, phantom, Lhuna, Brinniel, Ka, morm, Gwath

Rather unsuspicious
Shasta, Lommy, Eonwe, Durelin

As you can see, I have very sharp opinions on almost all of you.


edit: cross-posted with.... many