Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Volo

1. Wolf - scry: Baddies lose one player, goodies gain.
2. Wolf - lynch: Baddies lose one player.
3. EW - scry: EW revealed to GW.
4. EW - lynch: EW revealed to all.
1. is better than 2. and 4. is better than 3. Ah, but for heaven's sake, why don't we just search for Baddies and not discuss how we should do it and whether we should search for only some baddies and not others. Come on!

Exactly my opinion, especially the latter part.

Originally Posted by Rikae

After all, even if we find the EW, she has time to make this a wolf-heavy village before she can be defeated.

I might risk sleeping on the couch by this, but I have to disagree with you, my love. If by the time the EW can finally be defeated we still haven't found him, we find ourselves in a situation that is difficult to describe in family-friendly terms.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Did anyone else wonder at this?

I'm not sure what's worse: Volo making a statement that can be read as a wolf slip (but I remember an ancestor of him making a wolf slip while being innocent, too ), or A Little Green pointing out the quote - without any opinion of her own - in order to have the mob feast on it while keeping her own hands clean.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

My poor father! And my poor... erm... whoever the man was

Sally, thank you for your kind, albeit a little bloodthirsty at first, words. Go and comfort your aunt, I am fine now, and I will voice my opinions among the other villagers... (or should I say: family-members...)

Some comments made on the way to different posts that caught my eye, sorry for it being so long and somewhat badly arranged (and maybe difficult to read for the quotes), but that's just how I went when reading, and the size of the village... Just for now, here we go:

Originally Posted by mormegil

I take statements like this as fairly suspicous comments, all but the bolded one most of all. I don't know why they just don't sit well with me. It always makes me think they are trying to distance themselves with nightly activity.

You mean, trying to distance themselves from nightly activity? If this is so, I don't think so... simply a comment and nothing more.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Or the EW could have counted on people assuming that no one obvious would be picked and so picked the most obvious. We can't know for certain, and so we shouldn't rule anyone out.

Quite.

Originally Posted by mormegil

No, we can't no for certain can we? However, I consider playing the odds the best bet at this stage of the game. If I were the EW, well I would pick...well there's something I must do but I will be back.

I think this doesn't have as big value as you make it seem. The village is too large, the options are too many, peoples' opinions are too different (a Wizard might have picked anybody), although of course yes, such things may be helpful, but they might prove all too tricky if we for example tried to discern whether a person we suspect is a Wolf based on that. "I suspect X, but in fact, I don't think the EW would've picked him, so I say let him go." That would be certainly the worst thing to do with such knowledge. But besides, and we already saw Cailín do that, why not.

Originally Posted by THE Ka

Sorry to sound simple, but if I remember someone saying correctly that both the GW and EW control the actions of their servants, and can overide any decision, action, hidden message and their natures in the game as well. I understand that it makes sense to keep all of your ducks in a row and use them in good time, but why would someone in such a position be so nervous about whom they relate with, if they are the only ones who can talk with them? The seer is the only possibility of ultimately figuring out the identity of anyone, and obviously would be lucky to bag a werewolf, let alone their leader (or, at least figure out who's their fellow gifted).

Like someone before, I am not sure what is meant by this. But simply, concerning this topic: I think the EW would not tell the Wolves who she is, and she could eventually tell them who the other Wolves are, but with some tactic planning - to which size, I can't tell. Well who knows.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

The reason the EW may not want the wolves to know her identity is because if the GW scries a werewolf, that wolf imediately changes sides and becomes an ordo. More importantly, an ordo who knows the identity of the EW and can share it with the village. Each wizard wants to protect their own identity sso that they can challenge the other wizard on their own terms, ie. when the conditions are in favor of their respective teams. So the EW is hesitant to the wolves any information.

Well, quite.

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

I can't remember who said what exactly (it's late for me), but it seems like the key here is to try to track down the Evil Wizard, because he/she is constant whereas the wolves can change any day. In the couple of games that I have played, a case is usually built against a player over a period of several days, based on voting records and other accumulated evidence and suspicion. Hardly ever is the first person lynched a wolf, which I think demonstrates that a single day is rarely enough to identify a baddie, which is why I think it's better to make a concerted effort to find the EW, than to scramble about every day trying to flush out that day's unique wolf line-up. No, I'm not saying "don't look for wolves." But I do think most of our energy should be directed towards tracking down the EW. In my opinion.

Not sure about this. I think the wolves are somewhat more important to take care of, but...

Originally Posted by mum Roa

I'm not saying that the EW isn't important. Obviously both wizards are fundamentally important to the game. (That's why it's Dueling Wizards.) However, I don't think finding her is as "key" as you think it is. Keeping the wolf population low should be our first priority.

Yes, the wolves are the most important thing. But in any case, if one suspects a person for being a Wolf, or the EW, simply, he should go for it. It does not matter in the end - baddie is a baddie.

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

Why must it be a choice of either focusing on the wolves, or focusing on the EW? Can we not multi-task? The GW is perhaps better equiped at finding the EW, yet there is no crime in helping her out.

That's what I thought, summing it up quite nicely.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Firstly, I'm quite baffled by the phantom (actually, I'm quite baffled about everything...). I don't get the meaning of this, I'm afraid, and I don't like the way it's phrased. Also, I'm uneasy about the way he seems to be deliberately attention-seeking with all the "if I was the EW" and "please scry me" and -comments. I don't think the EW would behave that way though, and I'm not entirely convinced that a wolf would, either, but... There's something weird about him, but I can't say what. (Mac, my son, whatever did you and that Rikae feed him when he was a kid?)

I am not sure about tp. If you ask what they fed him, I would guess they fed him cobblers - but that's (fortunately) impossible. By the way, let me add a corresponding thought.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Anyway, I wonder whether wolves will act differently in this game than usual. I mean, usually they fall somewhere in the interval between just staying hidden and actively trying to lynch innocents. Here, they could have the additional task to divert our eyes (and the eyes of GW and seer) from the EW. Also, since the wolves can be remade, the loss of one is not as crucial as it is in a regular village. This might be less careful about not being lynched than usual.

Even though someone mentioned the possibility of Wolves given suicidal tasks here, it is still a loss for the EW if a wolf is lynched; she cannot win that way. She wins by getting huuuundreds (okay, maybe not as much. Just huundreds) of wolves here (of course, she can win by delaying... but by delaying, the possibility of a scry on her rises).

As for phantom, I think he is just "showing off" and trying to really be scried by the Wizards because he wants to enjoy it - in this I'd believe him saying his honest feelings

Originally Posted by Volo

I strongly doubt that the EW has solely chosen her Wolves from "our less famous, vocal and illustrous villagers". Thinking that way is dangerous, dangerous! If I were an EW I'd put a bit from her a bit from there. One or two "famous, vocal and illustrous villagers", one or two less so and one or two of completely not so (if we have any of those around).

Good point, however then as the Wizards sent a list, it may happen that let's say there were three "famous etc" villagers, and three "normal" etc. and it ended up being picked that there are three "famous", you get what I mean? But that's just to mention this option.

By the way, Volo's points (like that list 1.2.3.4. of his) make sense, however for some reason I have the feeling that he's not being himself.

Originally Posted by Cailín

I had not noticed but I doubt it is anything but a typo. If anything, it makes Volo look more innocent, because werewolves would be more careful to avoid mistakes such as that.

I also feel to not giving it any value. However as for seeing him more innocent because of that, I would not think so, as he may have been given a task, bah, whatever... I simply think it makes no sense to give any value to it.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I'm not sure what's worse: Volo making a statement that can be read as a wolf slip (but I remember an ancestor of him making a wolf slip while being innocent, too), or A Little Green pointing out the quote - without any opinion of her own - in order to have the mob feast on it while keeping her own hands clean.

I also thought similarly.

All in all - I like Mac, I feel good about Lommy... and maybe even about Aganzir (although, you'd better stay away from my girlfriend, okay? If you have any problems, it's no longer my concern! ! ) I don't like Volo, somewhat I am aware of Greenie and of Gwath, but then I know it may be a mistake... although the last time he was... hmph. I don't know what to think about phantom... though I would think he's ordo... anyway, there's so many people I can't name them all.

EDIT: x-ed with Cel and Ka

[satansaloser2005]

It's good to see more people talking, and though it's a fairly typical first day it's shaping up fairly nicely. Sadly, I took an afterNoon nap (aka I slept in) so I don't have time to read the posts as thoroughly as I'd like. For now, though, the player that I remember bothering me the most is Phantom. Now, Legate, I know he's a good business partner and all, but for today at least my vote must go towards him.

++Phantom



(I'll probably be out for the rest of the Day, unless I manage to snag some wireless over break, so provided that I'm not lynched or night killed or something I'll see you all toMorrow)

Oh, and Noggie, thanks for clearing that up!

[Kath]

*hugs Brinn* ... and beats morm over the head for voting for my loved one!

I'll admit it, this is a checking in post, I have been charged with sorting dinner out so I won't be around for a bit. You'll have me all evening though!

Just something though as I did skim the posts on my way through. I understand what phantom was saying about needing to focus on getting the EW, but I think we're more likely to catch wolves than wizards and we do need to ensure we get some of those as well or we're going up to scary numbers of deaths in a 48 hour period and lessening our chances statistics wise.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

*whispers to himself, looking at Aganzir* Now I recall why I liked her... Oh my. She makes sense. She was always clever. Only she had to become such a hateful person...

Anyway, I guess I'm going to be off for a short while... but will return soon to see what's happened.

Sally, my dear, feel free to vote for Phantom, I am not going to blame you for that... although I probably won't stand by you in this decision, you must understand he has been my friend and business partner for too long... not to mention he is my cousin (well who isn't, right... apart from you maybe...). But as I said, at least for now, I won't even suspect him that much. I think he has always been like that...

Will be back.

[Roa_Aoife]

Quick post before I head off to work- I'll be back on my lunch break to vote.

Originally Posted by Mac

Now I just talked about wolves maybe acting differently, and then I spot a classic "I'm not suspicious, but I'm suspicious" already on the first page.

It was only his first post. Even I'm not that good at wolf spotting. I'm suspicious of everyone. I'm extra suspicious of phantom, but I'm not certain. Or at least I wasn't after one post. Is that a better way to state it?

Originally Posted by Mac

The GW is going to search for the EW with his scries. Picking someone as a wolf who could be assumed to be the EW is unwise, because the chance that the person will be turned back into an ordo due to the searching GW is high.

Every EW will work differently. The EW could have picked someone who was high profile as a smokescreen to hide behind. Look, the second we start ruling people out, those are the people the EW will pick. Trust me on that one- I was there. Let's not make the choice any easier for her. Trying to avoid the GW was only one of concerns, and it was more from the fact that I'd be discovered by him if we scried the same person at the same time. He was theonly one who could stop me, and so he was the only one I feared. That is no longer a problem.

When I was the EW, I picked wolves from all over. I had high profile wolves, I had under-the-radar wolves, I had wolves that I planned to sacrifice. I'm trying to share what I learned from my experience with the village. Never rule anyone out as a potential wolf, and no one except the GW is a known innocent until they're dead.

Originally Posted by Cailin

Rikae: Too argumentative. Will make enemies. Enemies with pitchforks.

Roa_Aoife: See Rikae. It’s a family thing.

Again, I don't think anyone should be ruled out, but this made me giggle all over.

Originally Posted by Cailin

At this point, I think our best chances as a village lie with the scrying and seering. The usual daytime teamwork patterns can't be counted upon as a way to look for evil since there's no way to know if the wolves know each other's identities - and I would doubt that at this early point that they would as there's too much chance of flux from one side to the other. By the same token, it's high unlikely that they know the EW's identity. And other sneaky behaviors can't even be counted on because the wolves are perfectly replaceable while the village is still this large, and for all we know might be out there as cannon fodder to distract and confuse the search for the EW, who's really the one that has to be discovered to stabilize the werewolf population flux and make it possible for the village to be victorious.

I find any post that says, "Oh we can't find the werewolves, best not to try" to be not only flawed but suspicious. Wolves still lie. They still misdirect. They are still trying to kill the village. Cailin's post here echoes the post by phantom (not his first) that really sounded off my warning bells. Why, exactly, should the wolves being replaceable decrease the usual sneaky behaviors?

Tight now, I'm a little suspicious of the wafflers, "I think this, but I also think the opposite," but I haven't seen enough yet to form any hard opinions, so I'm not pointing them out (yet.)

Originally Posted by phantom

Bah! Why bother trying to find Wolves?

There aren't any!

At least, not what any of us would call Wolves.

In other villages the WWs work together and know their fellow pack members. In this village... well, honestly, there's no way the EW told all his WWs who he is and who their fellows are. That would be too risky.

Thus a "Wolf" is simply an Ordo who counts as a WW in the tally.

This post is both unhelpful and deeply flawed. It's basically telling us to ignore all methods for hunting wolves, even the ones that have nothing to do with connections, by suggesting that they won't work. This is misinformation, a common tactic used by werewolves. At least high profile illustrious werewolves.

I have to go (I'm late already) but I find the people who keep ruling out the "high profile" wolves to be suspicious, especially the ones who are conveniently high profile.

Edit: cross posted with legate onward

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

*whispers to himself, looking at Aganzir* Now I recall why I liked her... Oh my. She makes sense. She was always clever. Only she had to become such a hateful person...

Anyway, I guess I'm going to be off for a short while... but will return soon to see what's happened.

Sally, my dear, feel free to vote for Phantom, I am not going to blame you for that... although I probably won't stand by you in this decision, you must understand he has been my friend and business partner for too long... not to mention he is my cousin (well who isn't, right... apart from you maybe...). But as I said, at least for now, I won't even suspect him that much. I think he has always been like that...

Will be back.

It didn't seem very clear to me, Legate. It looks like an "I'm leaving" post, with a bit of support for Phantom thrown in, but by "feel free to vote", you seem to be subtly encouraging Sally. I suppose I could be delving a little too in-depth, but it's worth an eyebrow-raise, surely?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Phantom, are you going to post anything more of substance, or are you confining yourself to vote counts?

Edit: Dury, you look more Chaotic Neutral to me.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by THE Ka

Not to start yet another, I’ve been mulling over Legate’s actions while I’ve been away. Don’t really want to vote for him, because I’d rather have a better case than to do such a thing rashly on the second Day, but his strange nature the past two Days has sparked my curiosity. Usually he only acts this way on the first Day, not nearly all the way through the second. Might just be playing WW with exams overhead (probably a similar why reason I’m so ‘serious’ right now and can’t think of anything besides them), but I’d rather ask why instead since I don’t like to assume.
Why are you acting more anxious than usual? Just curious.

May be a combination of several factors. Partially it may be the mood conjured by the exams (the time of relief after one completed with the anxiety of the view of other coming soon), and if you say I act more like first day, it may be also because I feel still like the first day - not very much idea of what's going on, who may be who; the more in such a big village. I can't concentrate on all - there are LOTS of people I hardly even noticed, or, noticed but could not reflect upon... and such. Something like that, probably.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

It didn't seem very clear to me, Legate. It looks like an "I'm leaving" post, with a bit of support for Phantom thrown in, but by "feel free to vote", you seem to be subtly encouraging Sally. I suppose I could be delving a little too in-depth, but it's worth an eyebrow-raise, surely?

No, it isn't. The statement "feel free to vote" is from both sides outlined by the words "Sally, my dear," and "I am not going to blame you for that". It's an, how do you call that gramatically, inserted sentence.