Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Our odds might be tough...but then again I think it could go either way. Also, don't forget werewolves can be turned back into ordos. Goodness, my head hurts just thinking of all the possible things that could happen these coming Days and Nights. Anything is possible.

Meanwhile, I need some time to mourn over the death of my father as well as Eomer (who was also a kindly man and will be dearly missed). Kath, I need a hug...

I take statements like this as fairly suspicous comments, all but the bolded one most of all. I don't know why they just don't sit well with me. It always makes me think they are trying to distance themselves with nightly activity.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Mormegil

I'm only to this point but I must agree with the phantom here. The EW is the key to our success or theirs. (Oh, I can't wait until people misread that statement!) Anyway the EW is the deciding factor. If we get him/her early on the chance of victory becomes that much greater or rather our chance of defeat that much less, either way it's important. Factors such as RL time and availability are definately plausible factors to consider.

"I'm afraid I must side with the sister of my son's wife in this case, Morm," Shasta said quietly, moving with the stately grace of the aged to stand next to Roa, walking stick planted firmly in the dust. "Should we even begin to be able to search out this evil wizard, I should think it would still take some time before we would be able to do anything - indeed, it seems only her counterpart would be able to affect her in any way. By the time the evil one would be vulnerable, I estimate that there could be as many as six of her minions at work in our village. It makes me wonder, indeed it does, at the seemingly-insignificant way you, my daughter-in-law's sister's husband's brother-in-law, and my inquisitve grandson Phantom, seem to think similarly, in error."

He turned to Roa and offered his arm.

"My dear, you look a bit pale and shocky. Please, do me the honor of accompanying me back to our home. I'm sure my wife can whip up something to help you, and we should carry the news of what has happened to her and my sister, assuming they have not heard already."

[Lhunardawen]

Oh, my poor dead father. You had it coming, I'm afraid...you're too wise to be left alive if the wolves couldn't get you to join them.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Aw, too bad. I lost my future father-in-law! Ah, well at least he died knowing his daughter would be happy.

That is if she lives through this.

I don't like the sound of this, my dear. In fact, I'm not sure I like the sound of what you've been saying so far. Heaven help me if I'm actually engaged to a wizard.

Originally Posted by sally

"Lhuna, my dear cousin, are you sure you know what you're doing? You certainly have picked an odd'un."

You know, this is a perfectly sound question.

I'm siding with Roa that it is more important for us to find the wolves than the EW. I think there will be enough of that during the Nights, with the GW trying to look for her herself (if all her gifteds stay alive, that is), and she could be asking her gifteds to do the same, for all we know. My point is, the GW knows her job and we can trust her to do it. Our role here is to look for the wolves, because they're our immediate foes.

You're right, phantom, that it will be tougher to look for them since we can't rely on connections. But history has proved that lynching a wolf in these circumstances is possible. There are other things to consider, like general posting sense and helpfulness and all that. I guess we could partly be guided by keeping the EW in mind, though. I think the EW would prefer wolves less likely to be lynched than the very brilliant ones who attract the noose like flowers to bees.

By the way, this is just a suggestion, but I think that after the initial rantings about the dead, maybe we could do away with the RPG style of writing. Nogmod didn't require it, if my memory's to be trusted, and they're kind of hard to read through. It will be bad enough to have to crawl through so many posts with this large a village.

[the phantom]

I'd love to stay and chat, but I simply must get some sleep. Early morning tomorrow.

I will check in briefly, go to work for a bit, and then return for the last few hours of the day.

[Roa_Aoife]

I'm afraid I must be leaving as well. I'll be back on briefly tomorrow about 4 hours before deadline, and I'll have to vote then, since I don't get off work again until 2 hours after deadline. Good hunting everyone.

[satansaloser2005]

Drat. I was rather hoping for a flurry of posts while I was gone, but alas....

Okay, I'm going back to my house to get some sleep. I'll try to get up early(ish) so I can post before work. In case that proves impossible, however, I'll find some other way to post before deadline.

Speak up, people! I want to wake up to your lovely voices!

Good night, sweet princes/princesses (wow, that was random),
~~Sally~~



EDIT: x'd with Roa and Durie....of course....NOW people post.... :P

[satansaloser2005]

Oh, that reminds me. Noggie, can the GW/EW scry the same person two nights in a row? I know you can't heal someone two nights in a row, but I didn't know if that applied to scries as well. Reason I ask is that I had a dream last night that the wizards kept fighting over someone and pretty much taking turns scrying them. Pity that I can't remember who it was, but it made me wonder nonetheless.

[Durelin]

The wolves still have a guilty conscience, fear of lynching, and an agenda. It's not really any different. Connections people draw often seem to leave out one wolf who slips by quietly, anyway, even when it seems all is figured out.

Also, what's to say the EW wouldn't let their wolves know each other at least, if not communicate? That is certainly an advantage to them, unless of course the EW doesn't want them to be able to create connections among themselves except by chance. But oh yeah, duh...who's a wolf and who's not can change at anytime.

Originally Posted by tp

Btw, I'd kind of like to be scried multiple times by the two of you during this game. Not on the same night, mind you! I just think it would be fun to switch sides and maybe get to chat with both Wizards in the course of one village.

That is the coolest thing about this game.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Sally

I still say it's possible to find connections, as the EW may force them to act contrary to their normal playing style; then again, maybe not. It's worth a shot though, in any case.

Shhh... don't pursue that subject any further.

You are right of course that the WWs might have been given certain... erm... directions... I don't want to be too specific here... I'd rather not have people start posting their thoughts on the matter (ie giving examples). It might be better just to watch for it, for mentioning a specific maneuver may cause the WWs not to use it, where as if we'd keep mum they might do it and then we can spot it if you see what I mean.

Oh, and lovely family tree there.

Originally Posted by Ka

I understand that it makes sense to keep all of your ducks in a row and use them in good time, but why would someone in such a position be so nervous about whom they relate with, if they are the only ones who can talk with them?

I'm not sure I'm understanding what you are saying in this section. Are you questioning the assumption that the WWs won't know each other or the EW?

[the phantom]

As far as thinking about who the EW would pick....

First, the EW didn't actually pick his three WWs- he submitted a list of names, and three people off the list were randomly assigned to be WWs.

In addition, the "who" doesn't matter nearly so much as the "how many". If I was the EW I'd take six mediocre WWs over two brilliant ones any day. In other words the EW will simply pick people that he thinks are not likely to be scried or lynched. If he picks well then the game is his.

Sure, on one hand if he scries me then I can make all kinds of devilish suggestions etc, but if I'm a likely lynch/scry target then it isn't worth it.

Btw, I'd kind of like to be scried multiple times by the two of you during this game. Not on the same night, mind you! I just think it would be fun to switch sides and maybe get to chat with both Wizards in the course of one village.

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I'm not sure I'm understanding what you are saying in this section. Are you questioning the assumption that the WWs won't know each other or the EW?

Mostly that of the WW(s) not knowing the EW, in light of the fact that they cannot become very maverick if all their decisions and acting for the next day is determined via the EW's approval/disapproval. Though, then again the EW might simply use the WW(s)' range of influence individually and still have what they want without loosing any power up to them if they don't know one another, but still they have to submit any ideas off to the EW. That stratification of authority does give everyone else some advantage, but not much.

... I'm going to analyze the rules for the billionith time before I cross my own eyes.

Edit:

Originally Posted by da rules

If the wizard reveals her identity to you you can PM her directly. If she reveals you the identity of your fellow-wolf (or wolves) and allows it you may also PM to them during the Nights. But that's up to your wizard to decide.

Sorry about all of that, just answered my own curiousity... Okay, obviously I need to stop multi-tasking too much with other things while playing.

((Thanks as well to Shasta and Roa, and sorry to bother everyone with stupid questions.))

[Shastanis Althreduin]

((Ka, I could be wrong, but I don't think the WWs communicate directly with the EW unless the EW instigates the communication; I believe they go through Noggie or a sub-mod. ))

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Cailín

And on Day 1, when we have almost nothing to do but sift through roleplaying posts and criticise others for not being helpful, I believe it can be worthwhile to speculate.

I disagree. Even though the degree of randomness is a bit smaller than usual, there are too many different possibilities for speculating to be of any use - it's still waste of time. And just speculating on things like that instead of talking about people benefits only the evil team.

The way Cailín speaks and still leaves the impression of not saying anything makes me uneasy, especially given random comments like that.

Originally Posted by Durelin

It's clutching.

Thanks. Today seems to be one of those days I can't use any word right.

Originally Posted by Durelin

But really, I think you are, too/being defensive. Or maybe you're just frustrated cause you really think I'm an idiot. My argument wasn't just "Isabel's only posted once, Aganzir determines she is innocent, thus Aganzir doesn't look innocent." I didn't take up a whole paragraph just to say that. You make me uncomfortable. I don't know why. Have I played with you before? It shouldn't matter, but...yeah, it probably does.

At least once - in Saucie's game a year ago. But you died on the first night so I'm not sure if it counts.
Anyway I suppose I always get defensive if I'm suspected with grounds that don't really make sense to me.

I don't like Legate (oooh what a surprise! ). He looks probably the most opportunistic this far, I can't really put my finger on it. There's the same kind speaking-but-not-saying-anything air as about Cailín. And his posts look somewhat... formulated and restrained.

I think Mac and Volo look more or less innocent for now.

Great to see that my darling McCaber and Aunt Nerwen have arrived. But what about Nilp, Eönwë and Diamond?

edit: xed with Volo & Greenie

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Mac

I'm not sure what's worse: Volo making a statement that can be read as a wolf slip (but I remember an ancestor of him making a wolf slip while being innocent, too ), or A Little Green pointing out the quote - without any opinion of her own - in order to have the mob feast on it while keeping her own hands clean.

Well, I'm not commenting on Volo's slip because it still baffles me (even though he did explain it - that explanation was a little fishy btw), but I don't certainly think there's anything wrong with Greenie pointing it out: I would have done that had I spotted it.

Agan is definitely not sitting right with me. Really. There's something too... cunning and sneaky in her manner. I don't trust her a little bit. Something in her manner sharply reminds me of her in the Day0 of Volo's game where she was wolf but did not know the identity of her fellows. I can't say what exactly is the thing that is similar, but there is a freaky similarity. I think it has something to do with a certain devil-may-care attitude when it comes to accusing people. I bet that if she's a wolf who has not been told her fellows' identities, she does not care if she lynches them or not, she just wants to stay alive and thus accuses those that genuinely seem wolvish to her. Also, she's not the tiniest bit concerned about flushing out gifteds. I may be reading too much into this, but I think there's this sort of recklessness behind her posts and I do not like it. But if we better wolf candidates, I'm all for keeping her as she's quite sharp and can benefit us as much as her own team.

Originally Posted by Agan

I don't know about sally, but she makes me feel uneasy. Usually she's crazier and somehow less careful.

Oh but this is a very good point. Where is her characteristic cheer and carelessness? Is it just because this so different from any other game she's played this far, or are there more sinister reasons behind this?

Originally Posted by Agan

How come you're so sure?
This looks awfully much like a Brinn-wolf who doesn't know her fellows and states the fact as her opinion as she's afraid she might slip it later.

I really don't get Agan's point here...

Originally Posted by Durelin

phantom to Evil Wizard...not much of a stretch.

Indeed.

Originally Posted by McCaber

I'll be back with some more solid info, but that'll have to do for now.

Info???

I really love Nerwen's grumpy attitude. Besides she makes a lot of sense.


edit: xed with Nerwen and THE Ka

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I disagree. Even though the degree of randomness is a bit smaller than usual, there are too many different possibilities for speculating to be of any use - it's still waste of time. And just speculating on things like that instead of talking about people benefits only the evil team.

The way Cailín speaks and still leaves the impression of not saying anything makes me uneasy, especially given random comments like that.

You can consider it a waste of time if you like, but if I wish to hunt for possible baddies using a method that I think makes sense then I will continue to do so. I believe that much of what other villagers are saying can be construed as a waste of time, but I'm prepared to give them more time to get their thoughts sorted.

I leave the impression of not saying anything? And I suppose everyone else in the village has been chock-full of useful tidbits? Of course not! It's Day 1 and very little of interest has been said.

And nothing I say is random, you insolent girl.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by THE Ka

Mostly that of the WW(s) not knowing the EW, in light of the fact that they cannot become very maverick if all their decisions and acting for the next day is determined via the EW's approval/disapproval. Though, then again the EW might simply use the WW(s)' range of influence individually and still have what they want without loosing any power up to them if they don't know one another, but still they have to submit any ideas off to the EW.

The reason the EW may not want the wolves to know her identity is because if the GW scries a werewolf, that wolf imediately changes sides and becomes an ordo. More importantly, an ordo who knows the identity of the EW and can share it with the village. Each wizard wants to protect their own identity sso that they can challenge the other wizard on their own terms, ie. when the conditions are in favor of their respective teams. So the EW is hesitant to the wolves any information.

[Kitanna]

Commenting as I read...

Morm~On to wolves, I don't think the EW would pick those who are more obvious, so to speak. I doubt the phantom would be picked at this stage but he could honestly be the EW, though I doubt that.

Or maybe the EW anticipates the village thinking like that and has chosen the most obvious to be wolves. A sneaky and competent EW could pull it off.

Morm~I take statements like this as fairly suspicous comments, all but the bolded one most of all. I don't know why they just don't sit well with me. It always makes me think they are trying to distance themselves with nightly activity.

This is in regards to one of Brinn's posts, a standard opening day post as far as I see. I'm just looking to better understand why you feel this way Morm.

Roa~I'm not saying that the EW isn't important. Obviously both wizards are fundamentally important to the game. (That's why it's Dueling Wizards.) However, I don't think finding her is as "key" as you think it is. Keeping the wolf population low should be our first priority.

But isn't the best way to do that giving the EW the ax early? Though I must say it is more likely we'd catch a wolf early on rather than the EW.

Lhuna~I'm siding with Roa that it is more important for us to find the wolves than the EW.

Cailin~ Let me add to the EW and Wolves discussion (my future son-in-law phantom already managed to evoke some strong reactions, which is always good) that we should attempt to do both find the wolves and guess at the EW’s identity

Aye. Concentrating too hard upon finding one or the other is only going to harm the village. It'll be easier to peg a wolf simply because there's multiple wolves and only one EW.

It's possible to even lynch a wolf today. It's even possible to figure out the EW, but in a village this size it'll be a miracle. The problem with Day 1 is we're pretty blind until Day 2. The problem with all days this time is that wolves can become ordos and a wolf one night could be scried and be good the next after gaining heavy suspicion.

Calin~Kitanna: Another good survivor, not too controversial and may be overlooked by the GW.

If only that was true.

Now I wonder about others on Cailin's suspected wolf and innocent list. Putting out a list such as that could give the EW ideas. "Well, these players are going to be suspected innocent for a while, I should get at least one of them on my side." Given the complex nature of this game, I'd not relay on lists like that. It's often better to read between the lines here. Or at least that is how I see it.