Werewolf XLVI: Getting Back to Basics

[Thinlómien]

(I'm not commenting on anything that Gwath and Legate said about each other since I already analysed that yesterDay.)

Day1

I find it odd that after only one post of Gwath's, Nogrod says "first red lights have been alighted". It seems like overreacting a bit. Of course he claims to be provoking a reaction, which might be true. But I could also see this is a wolf trying to evaluete his fellow's behaviour objectively and ending up overreacting. Okay, I'm probably reading too much into it, but it was just a thing I noticed. Of course this is this weird "making an excuse" of hating day1s -issue, which I don't quite understand, but which looks more innocent than not.

Gwath's words about Nogrod are incredibly fishy:

Originally Posted by Gwath

However, Nogrod, you were awfully quick to identify my post as "wolvish"? You took no convincing whatsoever, so either you are trigger-happy and innocent, as Lhun said, or you really do know whether I am innocent or guilty. And THAT looks suspicious, because the only way you could know that is if you are a wolf yourself. I lean towards trigger-happy innocent, based on the sheer quirkiness and irrationality of your attack on my first post - if there's anything a wolf cannot afford to be, it is irrational. Or so my vast experience of Three Whole Games would lead me to believe. But don't give me reason to think otherwise.

Rather forceful attack (could speak against them being fellows, but I could aslo see Gwath as being slitghly offended by fellow-Nog starting to suspect him early and putting him into spotlight or joining in the fun of accusing fellows) and then backing away and saying "don't give me a reason to think otherwise2, which always sounds quite bad. Hmm... and I'm just wondering, would Gwath's slip (what he said considering Nogrod knowing whether he was innocent or guilty) make sense if Nogrod was his fellow and really knew his guilt? I think it would. (Or it could. I'm aware of falling to my worst ww habit: acting based on a suspicion and interpreting everything as if the suspicion was true. Argh.)

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Of those I expressed a mild suspicion earlier I'd say Gwath's actions haven't exactly made him look better (he's too verbiose and "explanative")

I think this looks quite honest. If he and Gwath were fellows, I think he would rather not even mention this or say that Gwath has seemed more innocent lately.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

However, I can’t say I like the look of Gwathagor, either– he just chimes in with other people– but then, as someone else noted, he always does. (Uh... which I guess means that now I’m chiming in...)

One could say this about a fellow wolf. But on the other hand, at least I keep making statements like this all the time, and I'm mostly innocent.
Gwath later replied this way:

Originally Posted by Gwath

Excuse me? When did I do that? But at least you preemptively acknowledged that you also are "chiming in" with other people (in this case Nogrod). That's good. Acknowledging your own suspiciousness is always a good ploy for averting further suspicion. (Ha!)

I don't think it looks like something he would be likely to say to a fellow wolf.

Kath, she really raises my alarms. She really doesn't have much against Gwath (the only thing she mentions is that he and legate argue in circles) yet she places him in the suspicious category and says she's tempted to vote him, but goes on and votes Legate. This looks like she's sharing the common suspicion to avoid attention and look good if Gwath is lynched, but still trying not contributing to him getting lynched, probably hoping that he can be saved.

I don't like the way that Nogrod slides by the end of Day from having Gwath as more or less top suspect to this Lhuna-Volo connection theory, which is, in my opinion, rather far-fetched and an odd base for a vote in the first place.

Gwath kept being rather forcefully against Nogrod but voted Lhuna. Not sure what to make of this.

I don't have time to go through Day2, so it has to wait. Solely based on this Nog and Kath look quite bad. But half of the work undone, I can't be sure. But a trio like that sounds quite credible to me (although I'm not sure at all... Kath's vote yesterDay would have been rather bold in that case).