Werewolf XLVI: Getting Back to Basics

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Oh dear. I just realized I left Mith out of my last post. Sorry!

I thought she was pretty innocent until her last post. I honestly don't think Lhuna dreamt of her, and Mith assuming that she did rubs me the wrong way. Hopefully nothing, but worth mentioning.

I didn't .... and how was it suspicious in my last post but not my first?

THAT looks odd to me...

[Mithalwen]

++Nogrod

[Mithalwen]

May not be fair but it is consistent and I just don't trust him ....

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I didn't .... and how was it suspicious in my last post but not my first?

THAT looks odd to me...

Because I missed it the first time. *sheepish face*


EDIT: Sorry, past DL. Oh well. Life goes on....

[Meneltarmacil]

"Gwathagor! Nogrod!" said the villagers. "Time for you werewolves to die!"

"Wait!" Gwath pleaded. "We need a fair trial. Plus, we can't have two people being lynched at the same time."

A die was rolled to determine who would die. Unfortunately for Gwathagor, it was him.

"Objection!" shouted the lawyer. "We don't have enough people here to make a proper jury, and I don't think anyone here is qualified to be a judge, either."

The villagers put his head into the noose despite his arguments.

"Well, since legal arguments won't work, I guess I'll have to use a more physical approach," threatened Gwath.

He dropped onto all fours. Thick gray fur suddenly grew all over him as he increased in size. Yellowish fangs sprouted in his mouth. His transformation into a large wolf complete, Gwathagor snarled viciously and lunged at the villagers.

However, he still had a noose around his neck, and just as they had with Lhuna, the villagers pulled with all their might on the rope, lifting the werewolf high in the air and choking it to death.

As they lowered the dead wolf to the ground, the villagers gave a sigh of relief. A werewolf had been killed.

Alive:
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mithalwen
Nerwen
Nogrod
Oddwen
satansaloser2005
The Elf-warrior
Thinlomien
Volo

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Crushed under falling cow by Wolves on Night 1.
Lhunardawen (Seer): Hung by villagers on Day 1.
Aganzir (Ordinary Villager): Made into shoes by Wolves on Night 2.
Gwathagor (Werewolf): Objections aside, hung by villagers on Day 2.

Night 3 begins. Villagers may not post until the beginning of Day 3. I need names as well.

[Thinlómien]

(I'm not commenting on anything that Gwath and Legate said about each other since I already analysed that yesterDay.)

Day1

I find it odd that after only one post of Gwath's, Nogrod says "first red lights have been alighted". It seems like overreacting a bit. Of course he claims to be provoking a reaction, which might be true. But I could also see this is a wolf trying to evaluete his fellow's behaviour objectively and ending up overreacting. Okay, I'm probably reading too much into it, but it was just a thing I noticed. Of course this is this weird "making an excuse" of hating day1s -issue, which I don't quite understand, but which looks more innocent than not.

Gwath's words about Nogrod are incredibly fishy:

Originally Posted by Gwath

However, Nogrod, you were awfully quick to identify my post as "wolvish"? You took no convincing whatsoever, so either you are trigger-happy and innocent, as Lhun said, or you really do know whether I am innocent or guilty. And THAT looks suspicious, because the only way you could know that is if you are a wolf yourself. I lean towards trigger-happy innocent, based on the sheer quirkiness and irrationality of your attack on my first post - if there's anything a wolf cannot afford to be, it is irrational. Or so my vast experience of Three Whole Games would lead me to believe. But don't give me reason to think otherwise.

Rather forceful attack (could speak against them being fellows, but I could aslo see Gwath as being slitghly offended by fellow-Nog starting to suspect him early and putting him into spotlight or joining in the fun of accusing fellows) and then backing away and saying "don't give me a reason to think otherwise2, which always sounds quite bad. Hmm... and I'm just wondering, would Gwath's slip (what he said considering Nogrod knowing whether he was innocent or guilty) make sense if Nogrod was his fellow and really knew his guilt? I think it would. (Or it could. I'm aware of falling to my worst ww habit: acting based on a suspicion and interpreting everything as if the suspicion was true. Argh.)

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Of those I expressed a mild suspicion earlier I'd say Gwath's actions haven't exactly made him look better (he's too verbiose and "explanative")

I think this looks quite honest. If he and Gwath were fellows, I think he would rather not even mention this or say that Gwath has seemed more innocent lately.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

However, I can’t say I like the look of Gwathagor, either– he just chimes in with other people– but then, as someone else noted, he always does. (Uh... which I guess means that now I’m chiming in...)

One could say this about a fellow wolf. But on the other hand, at least I keep making statements like this all the time, and I'm mostly innocent.
Gwath later replied this way:

Originally Posted by Gwath

Excuse me? When did I do that? But at least you preemptively acknowledged that you also are "chiming in" with other people (in this case Nogrod). That's good. Acknowledging your own suspiciousness is always a good ploy for averting further suspicion. (Ha!)

I don't think it looks like something he would be likely to say to a fellow wolf.

Kath, she really raises my alarms. She really doesn't have much against Gwath (the only thing she mentions is that he and legate argue in circles) yet she places him in the suspicious category and says she's tempted to vote him, but goes on and votes Legate. This looks like she's sharing the common suspicion to avoid attention and look good if Gwath is lynched, but still trying not contributing to him getting lynched, probably hoping that he can be saved.

I don't like the way that Nogrod slides by the end of Day from having Gwath as more or less top suspect to this Lhuna-Volo connection theory, which is, in my opinion, rather far-fetched and an odd base for a vote in the first place.

Gwath kept being rather forcefully against Nogrod but voted Lhuna. Not sure what to make of this.

I don't have time to go through Day2, so it has to wait. Solely based on this Nog and Kath look quite bad. But half of the work undone, I can't be sure. But a trio like that sounds quite credible to me (although I'm not sure at all... Kath's vote yesterDay would have been rather bold in that case).

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hm, actually, what Lommy wrote up here makes sense a lot to me. It really may be that Nog was voting Gwath yesterday simply because there was no one else to vote (although it was last minute and still other votes could have been cast f.ex. for me, like from Sally or Volo who voted about the same time... and Nog himself says he x-posted there with a lot, so who knows how it were?), it will also give one more reason to Gwath to vote me and not Nog, even though the bandwagon against him was already started (i.e. there was one vote for Gwath and one for Nog, now there was suspicion against Nog and Gwath voiced even some himself, so it might have been convinient for a wolf to simply jump on the bandwagon in the case Nog were innocent). It's just all their exchanges which would have to be made up by them... I don't really know.

As for Kath, that's another thing, and it's also possible for her to be Gwath's fellow packmate.

In any case, I'll be leaving now, but will be back in let's say three hours. I will probably have to vote early also today, short after that, and won't be here for DL. I can't probably think of much more than until now, so I will probably just vote for one of these two, or eventually some Oddwen if something else will happen. If Elf-Warrior or such is a Wolf, I won't bother with him now, as he's not around, and who knows, he may be modfired or whatever. In any case, there are other things to worry about, and if he is a wolf and we lynch all others, it will eventually surely come to lynching him when the village has four or so people

[Mithalwen]

Hi I am here. Won't have much time til later.

Well it is now quite evident why Lhuna died - she clearly put the wind up the wolves with her suspicion of Gwathagor whoever she dreamt off ...

However wolf picks can be quite random - especially if there is a ranger or the possibility of a ranger, so it may be wise to focus on what the people we don't know about are saying than too much on the words of a dead ordo.

[Kath]

Hmm, some answers and then another look at what's going on I think now I've finally made it into the right thread.

So, Lommy. You didn't like me making everything very black and white and just having lists. That's how I've decided to work. I used to analyse a lot and turn myself in circles and just be confused, so now I make snap decisions and it seems to work a little better. For example, I had Gwath, Legate and Nog as suspicious and one of those at least turns out right! Of course I had little basis for suspicion, it was Day 1, I had very little more suspicion of Legate but just enough to edge him in front. Had I been trying to protect Gwath I would not have mentioned Lhuna possibly dreaming of him.

As to now, I think Volo's death makes sense. He hadn't been around much, looks like an attempt at a safe kill to me. Suspects wise, I'm actually inclined to stick with my previous ones: Legate and Nog. Although Nog is looking less suspicious to me toDay. He has toned down the aggrieved act a bit which definitely helps though it's still there. Legate ... I have nothing concrete against Legate but whenever I read his posts it just feels wrong, like every word is being too deliberately thought out.

I actually wouldn't be enormously surprised if we had a Gwath-Legate-Nog wolf triad. It may have been a bold move to suspect their own so early but I know Nog is a bold player and I wouldn't put it past Legate either.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I think Kath's above post makes my view of her worse, the way she acts looks somewhat wolfy, just overall, explaining yet staying back... simply, I had a bad feeling from it.

Originally Posted by Kath

Of course I had little basis for suspicion, it was Day 1, I had very little more suspicion of Legate but just enough to edge him in front. Had I been trying to protect Gwath I would not have mentioned Lhuna possibly dreaming of him.

This is merely taking up one point I mentioned earlier toDay as an counter-evidence for Kath not being a wolf. Why not, but it's the only point, and it may be so that Kathwolf simply quotes it as well because she knows others (namely me) thought about it too, and also of course if she were a wolf, she might have mentioned it in the first place just for this reason. If there are other reasons why we should not think she were united with Gwath, she could add them and not just mention this one. You know what I mean? Maybe there aren't and she is simply clinging to what was voiced.

Or, if we have three wolves, then it's Gwath-Nog-Kath and then it'd be solved.

I don't know now, will, as I said, have to vote fast. I am not very comfortable with it and I also think I could have put more effort because I actually believe if we really properly looked through older posts, now when we know that Gwath was a Wolf, we could find the remaining one or two wolves by good analysis this time. Alas, I don't have time for this. Will be back in about an hour and cast my vote. Isn't it so quiet here?

[satansaloser2005]

Sorry, late night. Just got up and already have to run to class,
so I'm going to be quiet for a while.

Originally Posted by Legate

Or, if we have three wolves, then it's Gwath-Nog-Kath and then it'd be solved.

Gwath and Noggie? Um, I find that highly unlikely as a wolf pairing. Kath, on the other hand, makes a lot of sense. I've been finding her kind of fishy for a while but haven't had any evidence to support it. I would be happy with a Kath lynch today, just to put that out there in case anyone wants to know.

Okay, I need to go to class; just felt the need to post SOMETHING before I went away for a while.



EDIT: x'd with Lommy

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Kath

Had I been trying to protect Gwath I would not have mentioned Lhuna possibly dreaming of him.

But I think someone had already mentioned the possibility, so it didn't matter.

But Kath... you confuse me. Your response is too defensive yet there's something innocent in it. Also, I have the feeling that two of the remaining wolves will be found in the group formed by you, Nog and Legate, and you accusing them so loudly makes me wonder. Either I'm right, you're innocent and our minds work similarily or I'm right, you're not innocent and you're trying to win something by separating yourself from them so forcefully, or I'm not right and wolves are laughing at me. Anyway, at least one of you is a wolf, or I'll eat my head. If the other remaining wolf is some sneakie excellent at playing innocent (Nerwen? Oddwen? even Mith or Sally? or the absent Elf-warrior?). But, whatever you say Kath, I think you're most probably guilty of you three, not because you're more suspicious than the others, but because it all fits better with you and one of Nog or Legate being fellows than with the two of them together.

edit: xed with Legate

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Legate

Or, if we have three wolves, then it's Gwath-Nog-Kath and then it'd be solved.

What? Why "or, if we have three wolves"? Isn't that the probable scenario? Or are there just two wolves in this game and they were you and Gwath and you just slipped? This is starting to be more and more confusing...

edit: xed with Sally

[Nogrod]

Sorry but this day seems to be much more busier I anticipated. But I have a few moments now and then before the deadline.

On the basis of votings there are three people I'd say are more innocent than not. In the order of their innocence in my eyes they are: Sally, Lommy and Oddwen.

Sally brought Gwath level with me yesterDay at the last minute while it would have been easy for her to vote me just saying something like "let's check Noggie out then" or something and thence gen an innocent lynched & save her mate. And as I said earlier it would be a bit too high a price with this many villagers left for a wolf to buy "credence" with a fellow-sacrifice.

Lommy's vote in the end of Day1 would have been really dangerous as wolf-game. When she voted four players hadn't voted yet and she brought Gwath to be the runner-up in a last minute.

Oddwen began voting Gwath and there clearly was a general mood in the air that Gwath might be one of the main candidates that Day. So a pretty bold move for a wolf - even if not as bold as Sally's or Lommy's were they wolves.

Anyway. I'm going to leave these three out from my condsideration as to who's our remaining wolves for a moment. It helps to focus.

EDIT: x'd with many...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Lommy's vote in the end of Day1 would have been really dangerous as wolf-game. When she voted four players hadn't voted yet and she brought Gwath to be the runner-up in a last minute.

Okay, good, I remember to do that to my fellow when I'm a wolf...

Seriously though, now I'll finish the analysis on Gwath & Day2...

[Oddwen]

My suspicions are strongest of Nogrod - and only slightly less of Sally, I've yet to be convinced she knew she was casting the tying vote between Gwath & Nogrod & thought it was a "safe" vote - Lommy is behaving much the same way as Nogrod, not sure if that's the family resemblance - there are also suspicions of Nerwen & ElfWarrior, Kath, Legate.

I guess that leaves Mith, who seems honest. I don't know about innocent, but honest certainly.

Drat, time flies when you need it to pause.

Late for work again,

++NOGROD

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I read briefly and not too deeply up to about post 241 (hey this is just what I said - all the time NOTHING ,and now a million posts when I don't have time ). Anyway, just some things...

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

What? Why "or, if we have three wolves"? Isn't that the probable scenario? Or are there just two wolves in this game and they were you and Gwath and you just slipped?

Nope, that's just a matter of expression - imagine brackets there instead of commas. That is : "Or (if we have three wolves) ..." Speaking of it, I consider both as probable as the other - two or three.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Sally brought Gwath level with me yesterDay at the last minute while it would have been easy for her to vote me just saying something like "let's check Noggie out then" or something and thence gen an innocent lynched & save her mate. And as I said earlier it would be a bit too high a price with this many villagers left for a wolf to buy "credence" with a fellow-sacrifice.

OH MY! AGAIN! But Nog, you have said clearly the opposite at the start of the day. What caused this change of opinion? You were all "Why do you think Sally was innocent?" and when it was explained by that she leveled Gwath with you, you still said something like "And so what?" What the heck? Did you rethink it? Well nothing against it, but your behavior... oh my...

Anyway, heck. I am going to go for Kath now, but Nog sir, if you are a wolf, don't laugh, you won't see the daylight for much longer. I have to take care of my frogs now. Fare all well folks, except for the wolves!

++Kath

Although I must confess I feel uneasy. But whatever. See ya later...

P.S. And just can't resist:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Anyway, at least one of you is a wolf, or I'll eat my head.

Oh poor my, I hope that's not going to happen

[satansaloser2005]

I think I'm cursed. Every time I try to post, my computer/Internet freezes up. Maybe a quick post about something else will break the "curse."



Noggie's stranger-than-usual behavior towards myself....

Originally Posted by Noggie

Legate: have I missed something or why do you think the wolves should have killed Sally?

Basically confirming that I shouldn't have died that night, and that killing me would make no sense. Maybe he was just second guessing the killing of Volo? I don't know

Originally Posted by Noggie

So? I still don't see the point...

And a word of caution to my suggestion of watching Lommy: the voting records just caught my eye. Lommy voted for Gwath on Day1 as the second last voter (one minute before the DL) bringing him one vote away from Lhuna. In the end there were three people who didn't vote that Day but I'd say that would be really bold move from a fellow-wolf because she couldn't know who would vote and whom! I'll take that as an argument on her favour. It would just have been a bit too risky.

Doesn't even acknowledge the fact that A: I saved his tush, and B: I was the instrumental vote in getting Gwath lynched. Still doesn't see this as important even after Legate and I explained it to him.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Sally brought Gwath level with me yesterDay at the last minute while it would have been easy for her to vote me just saying something like "let's check Noggie out then" or something and thence gen an innocent lynched & save her mate. And as I said earlier it would be a bit too high a price with this many villagers left for a wolf to buy "credence" with a fellow-sacrifice.

Suddenly I'm given the all clear from him? Why? For the exact reason he didn't understand/agree with previously. :eek!:



Sacred bovine! He set me up!!!!!




EDIT: x'd with Kath