Werewolf XLIV: In the House of Tom Bombadil

[Nerwen]

Actually, Rikae, I said yesterDay that I thought Nogrod and Menel might be wolves– though that's partly because it looked to me like they were trying to frame me. And as I said, I don't like the way that even now Menel repeats Nogrod's argument that I've been "suspecting known innocents"– as if everyone hasn't at some point! Please note that, for what it's worth, I am the only person who hasn't voted for one. (Although I would have probably voted for McCaber on Day1.)

On the other hand– Rikae, Volo may look only 50% guilty to you, but from here he looks about 95% guilty; I mean, what would he have to do to convince you of his guilt? You're asking me to take it on faith that he behaves like this when innocent. YesterDay you "knew" Mac was guilty, and a lot of your argument was based on his playing style and your gut feelings. Sorry, but after that I'm not ready to blindly trust your judgement toDay.

And after all, though my feeling is that you're innocent because of your reactions near the DL, I can't be sure. You've certainly done your share of lynching ordos this game.

I am not "determined" to lynch Volo. I just want to get the right person, and I think he's our best bet so far. I don't know whether I'm going to vote for him yet... I need to think.

[Thinlómien]

When discussing my and Nogrod's reactions late yesterDay, please take into account that we were sharing the computer not only with each other but with Greenie also. So that is for example why I did not react to Mac's confession at all - because I did not touch the keyboard after I had voted. Also, Nogrod was not online right the moment when Mac confessed because Greenie was posting then (as you can notice).

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Please go back to the last game and look how Rikae's feelings "shone through" making almost half of the village to believe her emotional posts even if we had almost clear Seer-thing on her... So what are you talking here Lommy? This clearly is unnecessary and wrong. Why would an innocent talk such nonsense as we all know after the last game what Rikae is capable of with showing a feeling? If not to try to bring forwards the feel-good factor? And no innocent can't afford that toDay even if to save one's own neck from suspicion.

Sorry, I'm not just as dumbfounded with Rikae's brilliant performance as you obviously were. Granted, I knew Rikae was a wolf when I read her posts that convinced so many, but I didn't find it particularly convincing. Convincing maybe yes, to some extent, but some people certainly over-reacted it. Basically, you can't blame me for "making the same mistake as in last game"for I never made the mistake in first place - possibly because I didn't have the chance, that has to be confessed.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Lommy knows perfectly well that I never visited the computer after hearing Greenie's lament about not being able to take part toDay too much (we were eating dinner a few hours before the deadline). So suspecting me of being the one killing Greenie at Night because I heard her schedual is just plain wrong and she knows it. The question then arises why did she wish to make a point of it... To try and lay further suspicion on someone she knows is innocent perhaps? Where she just too happy to continue her well-begun wolfy-attack on me so that she just forgot this particular case was impossible???

I'm inclined to respond as heatedly, but it will be of no use if we two start calling each other liar here. But anyway you're either lying or confused. For the thing I know perfectly well is that I and Greenie left your place about 40 minutes before the deadline and I have no means of knowing what you did after that. If you say you didn't go online, fair, I accept it because it would be quite nasty of you to lie here, but you can't assume I have some magic power with which I can know when you're sending wolf PMs and when you're not.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But another thing that bothers me a bit more generally is the seeming consensus that the wolves are "sporty" and they should be found among people who could fit the description. I mean I could see it as well the other way around where a bunch of less loud wolves would leave the loudmouths alive just to tear each other apart while they would just sit back and relax. It might be though that Lommy and Rikae indeed are the wolves here. It's perfectly possible. But what I don't like is the premature consensus.

Am I the only one who thinks Nogrod is a bit panicky here? It's like "darn, Lommy and Rikae both look too innocent, I can't get them lynched, and I'm the only remaining loudmouth, I have to find a different kind of culpirt". Even though, if Nogrod was innocent and truly believed in mine and Rikae's innocence (which he seems not to do) he could act similarly.

I don't like the tone in which Nogrod accuses me. It's too nasty and dishonest to be innocent. I mean, it looks more like a desperate wolf to me. (Even though, one thing worth noticing is that innocents are more desperate right now than wolves.)

Durelin seems taking the suspicion against her quite heavily. Normally I would see it as a mark of an innocent, but I remember previous durywolves acting just like that. I can't really judge Durelin as truth be told I have not focused a lot of attention on her but right now she feels wolfy. It might be just that I'm picking a vague gut-feeling and the common opinion and making it mine so I don't really like it. I will reread the whole game toDay to be a bit more clear on things.

Originally Posted by Durelin

I also would like to mention to everyone that those of us who are innocent need to not be spread out in our votes. We have all three wolves still alive, and since they only need an innocent lynched toDay to win, there is no reason for them to hesitate to all three vote for the same person. That means we need everyone to talk, too. I'll do my best to be around.

Goodness, I didn't even realise this. Now we have to be extra careful... somehow Durelin saying that looks like she's reminding her fellows of the fact that if they get one innocent voting wrongly, they win. Oh, this is creepy...

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I have to go out now, so I don't have time to look at Lommy in any detail, but has anyone else noticed how she comes in suspecting me toDay?
Why? She never did before– and she gives no reason toDay.

We're now on the stage in which one most virtually suspect everyone. I did start the day with suspecting you a little, but after rereading yesterDay's last post, I suspect(ed) you less. Right now your sort of "keeping all doors open" looks like innocently so, so I'm not actually suspecting you that much.

In fact, I'm agreeing with Rikae that a Durelin-Nogrod-Menel trio looks at least possible, if not probable. *expects a vicious nogrodicissit attack after this statement*

I'd like to hear more of Mith's opinions on things, it could provide extra insight to Mith herself (whom I'm not considering very seriously at all) and to the identities of wolves.

Nerwen - I don't know how much you've played with Volo but I have to agree with Rikae once again: that's just his style. It does not make him look particularily innocent or guilty. I'm very baffled about him and I would like to take a closer look at his posts but I doubt I will have time to do it toDay because lynching him will be quite a shot in the dark anyway... I mean, I don't have time to focus on everybody so I'd rather focus on a few suspicious people and see who (if anyone of them) looks really wolvish. If we lynch a wolf today we can take it a bit easier toMorrow and then we can concentrate on enigmas but I do not think today is the time to do that.

Ok, now or very soon I'm off to reread the thread.

I have the bad feeling that the "fact" that Nogrod is a wolf fits everything so beautifully that I'll start seeing everything in that light... which is not nice because that's exactly what happened with Mac. If there would be a means of staying objective regardless of one's own initial suspicion I'd give a lot for it.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Nerwen - I don't know how much you've played with Volo but I have to agree with Rikae once again: that's just his style.

Well, that's two people now asking me to take it on faith. And sorry, but I don't think I can trust you and Rikae to that extent. I have thought you two were okay for most of the game, but after the Mac debacle, I doubt whether you can both be innocent.

Also, as I see it half the case against Durelin collapses if Volo is innocent... leaving her looking no worse (or not much worse, anyway) than anyone else and me with no idea whom to vote for. I mean, I can't see that much in that comment you and Rikae are talking about.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I'd like to hear more of Mith's opinions on things, it could provide extra insight to Mith herself (whom I'm not considering very seriously at all) and to the identities of wolves.

And Mith herself needs looking at. She was a suspect earlier... and now she's generally considered innocent because, as far as I can work out, she's been quiet for a while– and because she said she was innocent. (Honestly, what is wrong with everyone in this game?)

Not that I suspect her in particular, but I'm not giving anyone a free pass now.

EDIT: fixed bolding.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And Mith herself needs looking at. She was a suspect earlier... and now she's generally considered innocent because, as far as I can work out, she's been quiet for a while– and because she said she was innocent. (Honestly, what is wrong with everyone in this game?)

Not that I suspect her in particular, but I'm not giving anyone a free pass now.

Fair enough but I am notorious for going loopy under the stress of a special role. I have only been a successful wolf once (Roa, novice and rule assisted) - the first time I was Fenrised and the second I confessed out of boredom..... I have declared both times as a gifted.... I am a heart -on-sleeve type, trying to be otherwise takes a huge effort and tends to result in me cracking up...

Rikae may realise this.. of course she may just know I am an ordo cos she is a wolf .......

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

When discussing my and Nogrod's reactions late yesterDay, please take into account that we were sharing the computer not only with each other but with Greenie also. So that is for example why I did not react to Mac's confession at all - because I did not touch the keyboard after I had voted. Also, Nogrod was not online right the moment when Mac confessed because Greenie was posting then (as you can notice).

Thanks for pointing that out.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Am I the only one who thinks Nogrod is a bit panicky here? It's like "darn, Lommy and Rikae both look too innocent, I can't get them lynched, and I'm the only remaining loudmouth, I have to find a different kind of culpirt". Even though, if Nogrod was innocent and truly believed in mine and Rikae's innocence (which he seems not to do) he could act similarly.

He does look panicky. The probliem with using that as evidence is that Nogrod almost always acts panicky when seriously suspected.

Lommy, you're awfully quick to agree with me on pretty much everything...

[Rikae]

Quadruple posting, again (where is everybody?) -- one thought that's been haunting me is: what if Noggy and Lommy are wolves together? Of course, by going agaisnt each other like this toDay they'd be risking the quick victory, but also making the survivng wolf look quite good. I find it rather odd that they started the day off (Nogrod, actually, in his last post yesterday) suddenly suspecting each other. Also, Nogrod appeared to be buddying up to me on previous days, and Lommy seems to be toDay. It's an excellent strategy for them to keep me around, and, from this point on, we need to lynch a wolf every day. If I'm not killed at night, I can't become a known innocent without this ending the game. I have a feeling the wolves (or at least one of them) is/are trying to win me for an ally while hiding behind me, and I don't much like it.
I'm at least 90% confident that one of them is a wolf. If I can possibly find time, I'll analyze Lommy too, and their interactions.

[Rikae]

Oh, why not go for the record... quintuple post.

I would really like to hear Mith's opinions on everyont.

I am not 100% sure of Nerwen's innocence. She has an innocentish feel, but seems to go after people with bad reasoning. Her reactions to Mac yesterday could very well have been faked (I mean, this is Nerwen we're talking about here!)

If we can lynch a wolf toDay and toMorrow, we're headed toward a very desperate, but very exciting, endgame (just to look on the bright side!) I have always wanted to participate in a 3-villager, 1-wolf final day.


If we can't lynch a wolf toDay, we've completely disgraced ourselves as a village and have no business complaining about gifteds again. I'm at the top of the list of those deserving a public flogging, too.

Nogrod, you have mostly been defending yourself and attacking Lommy and I, if I remember correctly. What do you think of Menel, Nerwen, Volo, Durelin and Mith? I would particularly like to know why you've left Menel alone since Day 1, even though he is the submariniest submarine there ever was.

EDIT: X'd with Lommy. Mist! Spoiled my record.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Nogrod, you have mostly been defending yourself and attacking Lommy and I, if I remember correctly. What do you think of Menel, Nerwen, Volo, Durelin and Mith? I would particularly like to know why you've left Menel alone since Day 1, even though he is the submariniest submarine there ever was.

You haven't been giving me too many chances to do other things with your pressure on me.

Menel I'm pretty torn with. Boro's point of him being that way everytime took me off his tail back then but I sure need to reconsider him toDay. Volo is in the same category: sometimes I think it's just Volo and sometimes I tend to think he's the real tricksy wolf using a perfect cover (remember he can play that way as a seer so why not as a wolf?).

Mith and Durelin have flown under my radar basically the whole game and I know I'd need to do something about it. I'll try it later toDay

There wasn't a tie between Nerwen and Mac which I thought there were but she's one of my top suspicions still.

So if I had to give my hunch of the moment I'd say Lommy - Nerwen - Volo. They could produce the Nightly kills, there would be at least one Gwathwagoner & Boro-friend, Nerwen and Volo against each other would be nice tactics while both made it so monomaniacally that no one believes it - and Lommy looks like detaching herself from the two.

Okay that's just one scenario but now I really must go back to work.

EDIT: X'd with Mith x2

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

If I'm not killed at night, I can't become a known innocent without this ending the game.

Why not, Rikae? I don't get it.

Originally Posted by Rikae

You don't have to take it on faith - you can go look at some of his past games. A good example would be the one I modded, WW XXXIII, whre he was the seer and claimed, on Day one, to be immortal. He ended up doublt-lynched with Mac, a wolf. Looking at any of his past games should give you a good idea of how he is, though. I suggest you do so before voting toDay.

I've done so.

Oh. My. God.

Volo in WW XXXIII:

My role is called the Reincarnation of Tolkien. And because Tolkien is immortal, I can't be killed. I am on the side of the Innocents. My goal is to lynch the Wolves. If I am to be lynched or killed at Night, my role will be revealed, but I won't die.

I take your point, Rikae. (And thanks for a good laugh .) I still think he's likely a wolf, though, but I'll revise it down to... I don't know... 75%. (Anyway, I'm not about to vote anyone in a hurry.)

Re: Lommy and Nogrod– yesterDay, in my analysis of Lommy's Day 1 posts, I said,

Comments: Well, on Day One Lommy is indecisive, throws suspicion around, and now and then it looks as if she's taking instruction from Nogrod.

but I dismissed it.

I need to re-consider Lommy. Most of the game I've been pretty sure she was innocent and being unfairly targeted... but maybe the fact that she kept saying she thought I was innocent has biased me in her favour? It's easy to do.

On the other hand, Rikae, you must realize I'm not at this stage prepared to trust anyone else either, including you. As I said, I think it's very likely either you or Lommy is a wolf– though if it's you, you did a brilliant job of acting after Mac "confessed".

EDIT: X'd with everyone since Rikae at #254.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Why not, Rikae? I don't get it.

Because lynching one innocent will end, and lose, the game.

[Nerwen]

Sorry, brain wasn't working– I didn't realize you mean that. It's late here.

I just realized, my last post X'd with heaps of people.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Lommy, you're awfully quick to agree with me on pretty much everything...

Possibly because I simply happen to think along the same lines in many cases.

If I was buddying you up intentionally, don't you think I would be a bit obvious? Or transparent rather? A bit overdoing it?

I've reread a bit and while I have not managed to arrange my thoughts nor do I have time to do so right now, I must say that if possibly, rereading has made me even more confused. Rikae started to look more guilty, Nog and Dury more innocent... but I have still something against Nogrod (this will be elaborated on) and Dury as well and Rikae would seem less innocent had she not said a couple of things I doubt she'd lie about..

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

If I was buddying you up intentionally, don't you think I would be a bit obvious? Or transparent rather? A bit overdoing it?

No more than you already are.

I see you're sticking with the "if I was a wolf" tactic... it has served you well thus far, hasn't it? I never thought it was innocentish, myself, but it's not enough reason to lynch you, either, especially in our dire circumstances.

I'm interested to hear what else you have on Nogrod. He is my top suspect right now (by a slight margin, ahead of... everybody but Mith.) What makes him look more innocent, too? And what makes Durelin look more innocent?

[Mithalwen]

Sorry not to have been around before - day from Mandos yesterday. To answer someone's question I am still alive not because I am a wolf (I am not) but because I am, a bit clueless . Why I keep getting asked to play is beyond me. I have been quieter than usual and a bit shifty looking. I suspect that there is at least one wolf who finds me a useful foil and why kill someone at night who you might get lynched? Remember the wolves form a powerful bloc now.

This is our last chance isn't it...... I have a little time now and will be back for the last bit.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

On the other hand– Rikae, Volo may look only 50% guilty to you, but from here he looks about 95% guilty; I mean, what would he have to do to convince you of his guilt? You're asking me to take it on faith that he behaves like this when innocent.

You don't have to take it on faith - you can go look at some of his past games. A good example would be the one I modded, WW XXXIII, whre he was the seer and claimed, on Day one, to be immortal. He ended up doublt-lynched with Mac, a wolf. Looking at any of his past games should give you a good idea of how he is, though. I suggest you do so before voting toDay.

[Rikae]

While you're at it, look at some of Mith's games and see if she's the type to blatently lie.

[Nogrod]

This is looking all the more creepier.

Okay answering two things in a way to both Lommy and Rikae: my tone was a bit "frustrated" I'd myself say it was as I first see you two looking like forming an alliance to get me lynched - and thence give the victory to the wolves - and then Lommy goes on making untrue RL arguments to give me one more push.* I was indeed quite disappointed with her - and in a sense am still.

About the "buddying up" thing. As you have yourself noted already I'm against lynching vocal players early in the game unless there seems to be reasons to actually suspect them over others - and I also know that loudly voiced suspicions may end up generating a lynch. Had I seen something that looked as wolfy as Mac's posts in the early Days I would have surely jumped on either of you two (or Boro for that matter).

Also it's funny that as my last reaction to Mac's revealed innocence was that people should look at Lommy and Rikae if I'm not around anymore the next Day begins with those two buddying up to get me lynched...

But this is no time for retaliatory actions. Two miss-votes toDay and we're done for. And it could be anyone... any three. I mean even if Nerwen is one of my top candidates still I must agree with her that Volo being Volo just isn't enough to let him fly under our radars. And I would like to hear something from Mith.

So what then? I'm sadly still having piles of essays to read and can't play much but I will come back later and try to do my best then.


* Just a quote from the roles & rules, the first lines.

Originally Posted by Agan

-Three werewolves. They may PM at Nights and pick a kill, which should be sent to me at least an hour before the deadline - otherwise there will be no kill.

Lommy herself said they had left 40 minutes before... But okay, no more of that from my part.

EDIT: X'd with many Rikae's and one Lommy

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

About the "buddying up" thing. As you have yourself noted already I'm against lynching vocal players early in the game unless there seems to be reasons to actually suspect them over others - and I also know that loudly voiced suspicions may end up generating a lynch.

You always advocate leaving loud players alone, but I've never actually seen you act on it so extremely before. I have also never been thought innocent by you for so long.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

* Just a quote from the roles & rules, the first lines.
Lommy herself said they had left 40 minutes before... But okay, no more of that from my part.

I wonder whether you needed to PM at all, though. Perhaps you could just speak to your fellow wolf?

All this is beside the point, though, really. I think the issue is that you might have killed Greenie knowing she wouldn't be around? This actually makes me wonder whether Lommy was giving us her own reasoning behind killing her sister...

At any rate, please give us your opinions on everybody else -- I'm quite anxious to hear them. Also, can you explain why you helped the Gwath wagon, and then denounced it... and why you voted for Mac so halfheartedly, but only after he was already done for?

EDIT: X'd with Nerwen

[Nogrod]

Okay, absolutely the last post for the time being (I'm going to shut the PC down so as not to be able to see any more posts in a while).

Originally Posted by Rikae

At any rate, please give us your opinions on everybody else -- I'm quite anxious to hear them.

What I gave just a few minutes ago in #461 sadly is the best I have now time for...

Also, can you explain why you helped the Gwath wagon, and then denounced it... and why you voted for Mac so halfheartedly, but only after he was already done for?

You could go back and read your summary or rather my posting then - and I explained it once already the next Day after being asked. He was looking suspicious but as the Day draw closer to the end I started to have second thoughts among many others - and as I saw still the huge wagon emerging including half of the village I thought it too fishy as there had to be wolves there and they wouldn't lynch a partner that easily on Day1 so Gwath was more probably innocent than not.

I voted Mac as soon as I got the computer from Greenie and I had seen him confess his wolvery, therefore the "as it actually looks pretty clear now, then...." - if that's what you mean. I don't know if that is halfheartedness but more like a statement of the inevitable (he confessed so let's be done away with it then).

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I voted Mac as soon as I got the computer from Greenie and I had seen him confess his wolvery, therefore the "as it actually looks pretty clear now, then...." - if that's what you mean. I don't know if that is halfheartedness but more like a statement of the inevitable (he confessed so let's be done away with it then).

Originally Posted by Nogrod's vote

But as it actually looks pretty clear now, then...

++ Macalaure

But that done I must say I'm not at all too happy with this whole thing. There were too many easy bandwaggonings toDay and I must agree with Volo that I do not like it. With the unanimous decision the fellows have just slipped in to join.

Okay, I see... I misinterpreted. I thought you hadn't seen his confession yet. It is strange, though, that you take such a pessimistic view of lynching a "known" wolf, at any rate.

[Rikae]

Okay, Nogrod looks a little better, considering the above.

I'm uneasy about the fact that, although she has been talked about as being creepy, no one (but me) is seriously suspecting Durelin. I actually would tend to think, considering the general creepy feelings mentioned about her, the wolves would have taken the opportunity by now to scapegoat her, were she innocent. I also dislike the way that Menel is being completely ignored. To me, his behavior has been more blatently suspicious than Volo's.

So, a summary:

Suspicious:
Menel
Lommy & Nogrod (like I said, I think one is a wolf, probably not both)

Unsure:
Volo
Durelin

Of the two, I think Durelin's more likely a wolf because Menel appears to be protecting her, and there is so much silence around her. No one seems willing to analyze her (I fear I might not have the time, myself). Volo's voting is the one thing about him that really looks particularly suspicious to me.

Innocentish:
Nerwen
Mith

Nerwen has an air of sincerity, though I'd still consider the possibility she's a wolf. Mith I'm basically leaving alone for now, for reasons previously mentioned. Even if she is devious enough to be a wolf after her previous performance, there are two other wolves out there.

I really don't like the fact that so few people are really analyzing - now, when we need it most!

EDIT: Removed redundant "about him"