WW XXXXI: With a Twist

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Isa, you seem to think around similar lines as me. Only in fact, Nerwen did not simply not-vote for Aganzir, she saved her. If Mac is a wolf, this move does not make sense: it may be good to leave alive someone who trusts you, yet sacrificing a fellow wolf is definitely not worth it. Also, this move surely did not make Nerwen look better in the eyes of the others - she ended up dead herself.

And now I am going to sleep. Really.

I don't see Nerwen saving Aganzir as much as I see her voting for Mac... and once again, with Nerwen shown a wolf, Mac looks better 'cos of that vote.

I can't say I understand what the wolves were doing, perhaps it has something to do with the "twists" we don't know about and there's a division among the wolves, I have no idea... and we'll have to cope with the twists as they come. I don't want to speculate on that too much, whatever it is that the wolves were trying to do, it played out in our favour.

About your previous scenarios, I am not against being lynched today, but that'd give the wolves two nights to look for the cursed if they haven't found it yet. Furthermore, if I'm alive not this night but the next and the cursed was turned, s/he is likely to try and get me so that I can't get lucky a third time and dream of that person.

So villagers, it's your call... either way, at the end of the Day things will be much clearer.

[Farael]

Sorry, I wasn't clear on something... the cursed getting me two nights from now means that at least you wouldn't lose another ordo, however if you lynch me tonight and then lynch Mac and Rikae you'll lose three innocent villagaers (barring a Ranger save) if the Cursed was turned.

[Boromir88]

Rikae's a fraud...I'm the ranger, and Farael is the seer...trust him.

Though I am deeply confused because I did protect Mac on Night 3, hence my clue left in my first post. Anyway, yesterday I protected Farael and Night 2 I protected Farael.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Rikae's a fraud...I'm the ranger, and Farael is the seer...trust him.

Though I am deeply confused because I did protect Mac on Night 3, hence my clue left in my first post. Anyway, yesterday I protected Farael and Night 2 I protected Farael.

Thanks Boro you were my Night 2 dream... but I didn't want to flush you out if you didn't do so yourself. But if you protected Mac and there was no kill that means it's likely the cursed was turned..... That'd bad news, but getting rid of Rikae and Macalaure would be a good idea.

[Aganzir]

Villagers- 9
Werewolves- 3

+ two dead werewolves. So the cursed was turned. I guess I will take a look at Days 1 and 2 and see if I could figure out whom Mac & Rikae/Nerwen might have wanted to kill (in case the cursed wasn't Rikae or Nerwen).

Originally Posted by Saucie

Mac, why didn’t you switch to Nerwen to save yourself?
Same question to Aganzir.

Honestly, I didn't realise I could have done that. All I could think on those last crazy moments was that it'd be either Mac or me.

Originally Posted by Saucie

If Mac is a Wolf, why on earth did Nerwen switch her vote to him, rather than to Aganzir?

Especially as Rikae had said she'd switch to Nerwen in order to save Mac. Surely Nerwen hadn't missed that; she had to know she was going to die if she voted him. But if both Mac and Rikae are wolves, what a nice little plan it would have been to clear them both.

**

A piece of information: I will be travelling to London with a friend & her family on Jan 2. I guess there's a net access at the hotel, so I should be able to vote & post at least something. But in the worst case I'll miss Day 6.

edit: xed with Eomer

[Boromir88]

But why would a Ranger hint so obviously, when it could only lead to his death? And why wasn’t he killed last Night?~Sauce

I was fully expecting to be dead, but I think Farael's sudden aggressive attack against Mac yesterday tipped the wolves off so I protected Farael. I'm sorry, with this I have to be, how to say...secretive? But, I'm bound to only say this, you'll have to put the pieces together. Yesterday I said there was someone's judgement whom I trust more than my own and I guarded Farael on Night 2 as well...now figure it out.

++Rikae

I don't know if I can get back before the deadline, I hope to be to get down to who this last wolf will be.

[mormegil]

Okay, I'm back and I see not much has really changed. The discouraging part at this point is how little we've heard from the 'other' group. Only SpM, Agan, Legata and me have posted. Where is Kath, The Might, Isabel and Eomer (both posted a bit but not much). They are four that might bring some help to the table.

The next question I have, is how far do you think that the phantom is willing to go? Meaning how crazy would this 'twist(s)' be? The reason I ask is because there are certain possibilies which in my conspiracy theorist convoluded mind I entertain but am hesistant to bring forward in fear of muddying the waters even further. The reason I don't is because they are so far fetched as to be near impossible, even for the phantom to do.

Now my thoughts haven't changed much and I still think the Boro/Farael combo seems a bit more realistic but the problem I'm having is that I haven't been able to wrap my mind around all the possibilities and widdle it down to the most likely. The variable here is how far is the phantom willing to go. I think for the sake of my sanity, I've drawn a line and stated that the Phantom would not cross this line...and if I do that in all likely hood Farael is the seer.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I protected Macalaure on Night2, Legate on Night3, and Macalaure again on Night4 - and you are the one who is done for, once my role is revealed.

Since I won't have too much time to post toMorrow, I'll ask this now eventhough we don't know yet for certain who is lying.
Why did Rikae decide to clear Legate? I think tp hadn't posted the tally yet when she posted this.
Is Rikwolf continuing with too-obvious-for-a-wolf things & mentioning her fellow wolf there or did she just choose him because he was the only one who agreed with them?

[Boromir88]

Is it possible that Boro is the ranger and Farael is a cobbler, wolf or false seer?

No...plain and simple...no.

If Mac and Rikae are Wolves, I think that you would have been their likeliest target last Night.~Sauce

I disagree. I defended Mac two nights ago, and assumed that I had successfully defended him; hence why I dropped off the hints. But, think about it, if I'm dropping off hints that Mac was innocent, and Mac is a wolf, why would the wolves kill me yet? I went way out of my way to throw full support to Mac, and yesterday I definitely didn't want to see him lynched.

I think it was pretty clear to mostly everyone that I had information yesterday, and I came in definitely thinking I was going to be dead. But, I went well out of my way to give Mac a full defense, if the wolves were tipped off that Farael was the seer, they would obviously go after him, if I was fully believing Mac was innocent. Why kill me yesterday than? With the way Farael was attacking Mac yesterday, and the way that I was defending him, perhaps the wolves felt safe that I did not know who the Seer was and hence felt safe trying to kill him. Where then they could properly deal with me the next day. So, why kill me?

I really doubt this is possible but what got me thinking of it was when Boro said that he expected himself to be killed last night and well there was no death so???~morm

That wouldn't make any sense. Since no one has died the last two nights, one of them had to be a successful defense. I believed going into yesterday I had successfully protected Mac, but I believe as I pointed out in the narration, this was not so. The narration makes it clear that something happened to benefit the wolves the wolves on Night 3, the cursed was therefor turned on that night. ,
Night 4 had to have been the successful protection, unless you are going to suggest that there are two cursed?...Or how about this...everyone is cursed, no one will die for at night for the rest of the game...

Although, I wish I hadn't revealed so hastily, because I can blow holes in Rikaes fraudulant reveal and will do so momentarily. Mark my words, you lynch Farael this village deserves to be devoured by the wolves and I am ashamed to be protecting it.

[Aganzir]

I will have to vote now, as my friends decided they'll come here to celebrate New Year. I'm not sure if I can be online at deadline (12 am here), but I'll try.

++ Macalaure

[Macalaure]

I have to leave now, so this is my last chance to change my vote.

While I think that Boro is clearly more likely a cobbler than the ranger, it is still a possibility that is not negligible. I don't feel like doing the work for the wolves, so I won't switch to him.

Rikae is the ranger unless a) Farael is a false seer but one of his dreams happened to be correct b) he is a cobbler and accidentally outed a wolf. Other than that, I have to say that more or less all evidence points towards her speaking the truth. I wonder what it is that Boro promised to come up with.

I know Farael is not the real seer. As a cobbler, he deserves to be lynched. As a false seer I'd feel sorry for him, but he's of no more help than an ordo (me). In fact, he is even less helpful, because as a false seer, he will involuntarily be very confusing for everybody.

I think I will keep my vote where it is. From my point of view, it makes the most sense.


Happy New Year to everyone!

[Boromir88]

I became suspicious of Rikae after Nerwen's lynching yesterday, mostly because of her Day 1 activities.

If you notice, Rikae managed to get into a tustle with Nogrod over his playing style, yet anyone who suspected Nogrod she tried to get suspicion turned towards them...she did the same for anyone who suspected Nerwen. Shasta was after both Nerwen and Nogrod, morm was after Nerwen, and Rikae throughout Day 1 says that both Shasta and morm was acting "jumpy." hmmm...

Or how about the playful attitudes between Mac, Nogrod, and Rikae through Day 1?

Rikae calls out Nogrod for his desire to lynch the "quiets." Nogrod says Mac and Rikae are plotting against him. Rikae points out that Nogrod always seems to accuse her and Mac of plotting together. And when I explained to Rikae what I thought Nogrod's typical thought pattern was she says, she knew but she always gets into an argument with Nogrod over it. In the midst of all this stuff between the three they seem quite jovial about it, using all sorts of smilies and winks. It looks all too much like a group of wolves who are not only willing to lynch eachother to look innocent, but are having a good time laughing about accusing eachother.

Let's look now at Day 3 and Rikae's vote for Nerwen to save Mac. Rikae was trying to save Mac...quite the noble thing to do actually, and to answer why doesn't she vote for an innocent? Since Mac is a wolf, and there is no doubt in me now that he is a wolf, what looks better for Rikae if she's trying to save him? To vote and lynch an innocent, or she could cast a vote to hang another wolf partner of hers who as in trouble. Also. I haven't checked the times but Rikae's last vote turns out to be a waste, as my vote for Nerwen sealed the deal.

[Aganzir]

I'm feeling worse and worse about Legate. And Isabell's today's posts give me also quite a bad feeling... She seems to be a little too reluctant, if you know what I mean. A bit like a wolf who knows her pack will be dead soon.

Happy new year everybody.

[Boromir88]

What I want to try to figure out here, Rikae is definitely a wolf...but I can't figure out Mac.

I chose to protect him on Night 3, from the narration it looked like it was a successful defense, and hence why I was so staunchly defending him yesterday and why I left this clue...

If it was up to Me, that is, Another choice may prove to be Catastrophic...

Edit:

But if you protected Mac and there was no kill that means it's likely the cursed was turned~Farael

Oh that's what this must have met in the narration...darn tricky narrations I got to thinking I had two successful protections.

"Nay!" answered the fog. "It is I who have had the victory this night."

[Boromir88]

Oh...and before I leave in a little bit, sorry if this puts you in danger buddy, but morm is innocent too. I was able to communicate with Valier, and her last choice to kill was morm. That is why I suddenly switched after Eomer pointed this out. I missed that little bit at first :

I note that the Hunter only kills if her chosen villain was indeed a wolf (from the game rules).

[The Saucepan Man]

Cripes!

OK, so if I have it right, there are two possible scenarios, one of which is the correct one:

1) Farael is the Seer, Boro the Ranger, and Mac and Rikae both Wolves. In this scenario, it looks likely that the Cursed was awakened on Night 3.

2) Mac is an Ordo, Rikae the Ranger, and Farael and Boro both Wolves (or one a Cobbler). In this scenario, it seems that the Cursed may have been awakened last Night.

Wow! I knew that we had bold Wolves. I worked out overNight that only two living villagers have never voted for a Wolf - Farael and the Might - which indicates that, unless both are Wolves (which I thought unlikely then, and think even less likely now), there has been at least one Wolf-on-Wolf vote ending in the death of a Wolf. But it seems that they are even bolder than I imagined.

Right now, I really don’t know who to trust. After Nerwen’s death, I must say that I thought Farael looked bad. After all, his vote on Day 2 meant that Valier died instead of Nerwen and his vote yesterDay might be construed as an attempt to save Nerwen.

That said, I have suspected Mac throughout much of the proceedings, and would not be at all surprised if he turned out to be a Wolf. I also found Rikae’s last minute switch to Nerwen yesterDay strange and wondered whether it might be a Wolf-on-Wolf vote. I find it quite credible that the Wolves would sacrifice another of their number, given that she was under such pressure, to gain credibility in future Days. In fact, if either Boro or Rikae is a Wolf, then there was most definitely a Wolf-on-Wolf vote to kill Nerwen. Note, whichever one is a Wolf, they could have voted differently, and probably killed an innocent, yet chose to vote Nerwen (although it is, I suppose, possible that Boro is a Cobbler rather than a Wolf).

As for Boro, well I have pretty much trusted him thus far. I noticed the hints yesterDay (but didn‘t get the Mac thing), and that lends some credibility to his story. But why would a Ranger hint so obviously, when it could only lead to his death? And why wasn’t he killed last Night?

I also think it worth raising one further possibility. We know that there are a number of secret roles, giving rise to a twist or twists. Is it possible that one or more of toDay’s revelations are a consequence of this? Might there be a false Seer? Might other revelations be the product of some secret role bearing its own agenda? Even if this be the case, however, I cannot see that there would be two Rangers, or even a false Ranger. Surely, either Boro or Rikae is up to no good.

I would suggest that the best way forward is to compare toDay’s revelations against the background of the past few Days’ votes and behaviour. My instinct is to trust Farael and Boro, but I cannot be at all certain at present.

[The Saucepan Man]

Some quick thoughts from the votes and past behaviour.

Given that Nerwen is a Wolf, Kath, Isabellkya, morm and Eomer are, for their continued attacks on her, looking quite good to me right now. Although I would be interested to know why Eomer changed the habit of the previous two Days and voted for The Might yesterDay.

The Might’s defence of Nerwen on Day 1 makes him look quite bad. But, unless he is a Wolf to Farael or Boro’s Cobbler, he could not have been a Wolf on Day 1.

Rikae voted in bandwagons against innocents on Day 1 and Day 2. Yet put in a decisive vote for a Wolf yesterDay. What I would like to know from her is why she has appeared to suspect Mac throughout Days 2 and 3, yet pulled back from voting for him both Days, claiming that he should be given more time. Also, why she protected him at Night when she was openly suspecting him during the Day. I think that Mac and Rikae’s interaction throughout will be worth reviewing. Funnily enough, it was Nogrod that first raised the possibility of them being Wolves together. Perhaps, as I said before, he was telling a truth to conceal it.

As for the voting yesterDay, some more questions:

Rikae, why did you switch at the last minute to Nerwen?
Same question to Boro.
Mac, why didn’t you switch to Nerwen to save yourself?
Same question to Aganzir.

Also, a point that Legate raised, I think, but worth raising again. If Mac is a Wolf, why on earth did Nerwen switch her vote to him, rather than to Aganzir? Is Aganzir the Cursed? Strange that she should make such a case against Mac, if that be the case. Or did they decide to reenact Day 1 and agree that one of them could be sacrificed to make the other look better. If so, why didn’t Mac vote for Nerwen? That switch of Nerwen’s is the one thing that really makes me hesitate over Mac being a Wolf.

It's late here, and I have neither the time nor the inclination to go back over the proceedings thus far to do any detailed analysis. I shall try tomorrow, but it is New Year's Eve in my head and I have imaginary guests coming, so I don't know how much I can be present in this village.