WW XXXXI: With a Twist

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Mac, you seem to suspect anybody who suspects you...it's not healthy, trust me. Sadly, I have a habit of doing that and more often than not I am wrong about it. It's a problem I'm working on...I think I'm on step 8 of a 12 step program. So while I understand the knee-jerk reaction it doesn't help allay my fears of you.

You know, usually I don't automatically suspect anyone who suspects me. In fact, I frequently find myself thinking people who suspect me innocent. But this time I simply fail to see why I'm being suspected. I've heard a lot of "it's possible that he's a wolf" but very little that goes beyond that. Rikae's "his case against Aganzir is too weak" is probably the best one of them. I also can't shake off the feeling that at least some of the suspicions against me are wolf-made, but I yet cannot decide which.

[Farael]

Sorry folks, I'm feeling a little under the weather (Trust an University student to get sick right when he has time off to enjoy)

There's been a lot of talk since the last time I checked the thread, and I don't have the energy to do a comprehensive post with quotes and theories... believe it or not, and even if they sound far-fetched, they all take some effort.

So I'll write my thoughts on all the players as I may, paraphrasing and without quotes to back them up... I'll do my best to be clear as to what I refer to, but I don't think I can go quote-hunting right now

Looking Innocent
SPM: Trusting him dangerous, but I always tell myself that each village is a different world and that (while caution based on past experience is necessary) you can't suspect someone solely on the fact that they (pardon my french) screwed you over before. He is reasonable, calm and collected... I can't suspect him.

Boromir: He has a swagger about him and that may rub people the wrong way, but he has answered every concern raised against him reasonably. While "being defensive" is wolfish, he's not defensive, he's just genuine on what he says. Or at least, he seems genuine.

Mac: Sorry folks, but on Day 2 you have to put your chips somewhere and he is just not a good bet. True, it could be a smart plan by the wolves (And if it is, may Mod help us all... ) but right now I think it's not the time to go looking for far-fetched theories. Let's cover our bases first, if that does not work, we can take a look at Mac.

Looking alright

Legate: Perhaps he has not said enough for me to suspect him, but so far so good for Legate

Morm: He seems jumpy, but he did the same thing last village we played in when he was the Ranger. i am torn, as it may either mean that he has "a role" again (which could be anything from gifted to wolf) or that being jumpy is just Morm's style. The same I said for SaucepanMan applies for him... I'm not willing to let him off the hook because last time he acted like this he was a gifted, but for now I'm willing to give him a pass.

Aganzir I don't quite see how his vote for Nogrod makes him look bad...

Feeling unsettled about
Rikae this is a case of a player I never trust. She seems a little flippy-floppy on Mac and this may be because I understand they have a RL friendship, but it just doesn't look good to me... also, her vote for Valier looks awful safe yet...

Valier gotta say I have a soft spot for Valier. She joined the 'downs about the same time I did and we used to talk a fair bit... but that's not clouding my judgement enough for me to notice that she has almost no reasoning behind her suspicions. Now, I'm known for latching on to people and suspecting them to the bitter death (of either of us ) based on a hunch... but when I did that, I tried to make some sort of a case. Valier is just saying "I have hunches, trust me"... and she's been doing it for a couple games at least. She just can't be the Seer in all games!!!

Nerwen: She seems lost. Could be a misguided ordo, or a wolf who knows that looking clueless is a good way to avoid suspicion for a while. I can't figure her out

Might: Is anyone else finding him odd(er)? he posts little, and he said he missed the deadline last Day. I'm willing to trust him on that, but does that really make him look better? his missing of the deadline may have been what caused Nogwolf's plan to go awry.

Izzy: Can't get a feel for her.

Eomer: The Perma-distrusted, I suspected him earlier but now he's not looking as bad. Still, I'm not willing to give him a pass.

Zali: Can't say anything.

Edit: X-ed with Aganzir
Edit 2: Fixed poor grammar

[mormegil]

Here is an up to date and accurate voting count...I think

Valier for Agan (Agan 1)
Legate for Valier (Agan 1, Valier 1)
Boromir for Morm (Agan 1, Valier 1, Morm 1)
Valier retracts Agan and votes Nerwen (Valier 1, Morm 1, Nerwen 1)
The Might for Eomer (Valier 1, Morm 1, Nerwen 1, Eomer 1)
Nerwen for Valier (Valier 2, Morm 1, Nerwen 1, Eomer 1)
Rikae for Valier (Valier 3, Morm 1, Nerwen 1, Eomer 1)
SpM for Valier (Valier 4, Morm 1, Nerwen 1, Eomer 1)
Mac for Morm (Valier 4, Morm 2, Nerwen 1, Eomer 1)
Morm for Nerwen (Valier 4, Morm 2, Nerwen 2, Eomer 1)
Agan for Mac (Valier 4, Morm 2, Nerwen 2, Eomer 1, Mac 1)

Please correct me if I am wrong.

[Farael]

Alright, I've decided to vote now and use my retraction if I'm around later with a better idea.

You may notice from my previous post I just have no-one pegged as "very suspicious". Right now I need to get a better read on everything that happened today, and I don't know if I'll be able to muster the energy to do that before the deadline. So I'll vote even though I don't like it, for a reason that's coming up.

++Valier

I am voting for her on two lines of reasoning.

First of all, of all my "don't feel so good about" players, she's the one who seems the least helpful. Along with The Might I should say, but my second reason explains why I'm not voting for him. While I understand how hunches work, being a hunch-player myself at times, she's done nothing to win us over and her one attempt at a reasoning seems weak... I know Valier is smart and she COULD make a good case if she wanted.

But the biggest reason for my voting for her is that with the wolves being able to PM during the day and retractable votes, they still have too much control over who gets lynched. Of all the people who have gotten voted so far, Valier is the one I think has the best chance of turning out furry.

If I had to choose whom to lynch, I'd probably get rid of The Might with a similar case as what I have for Valier. He seems to be all over the place and not really contributing much... and his missing of the deadline might've been the reason why Nogrod did not act to save himself. Perhaps he was waiting on Might to do something at the last moment.

Edit: X-ed with everything after my last post

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Isabell

Right now I'm deciding between Aganzir, Legate, and Nerwen for a vote.

And what is your reason for this, if I may ask? The timing of my Nog-vote (the only time Isabell has mentioned me was when she said that was worrying) is maybe a little bit too weak reason to base a vote on.

[Isabellkya]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And what is your reason for this, if I may ask? The timing of my Nog-vote (the only time Isabell has mentioned me was when she said that was worrying) is maybe a little bit too weak reason to base a vote on.

I had said I was leaving and going to return before the deadline. That in that particular post, I was trying to get Nerwen out of my head. But I have no problem obliging and relating my issues.

[Isabellkya]

Aganzir - You preferred to go with voting for either Nogrod or Shasta as they were among the lynching candidates. Yet, reasons for voting for either one were not apparent (unless I missed a post).. they seemed rather weak and allusive. It seemed that your objective was to get someone lynched; regardless of who it was. You voted Nogrod, but stated you would switch to Shasta if neccesary. What do you mean neccesary? If the voting had switched and it looked like Shasta would be a sure lynch?

You then even went as far as to threaten Shasta with a vote; if he didn't switch over to [b]Nogrod[/]. This implies more the need for a lynch. Why attack Shasta when he voted in regards to self preservation? Others voted to save others; as well as I believe Nerwen voted to save herself. Where is the threatening in terms of those people who voted in regards to preservation?


Drat, time is running away and I must vote.

++ Nerwen

For previously stated reasons.

x'd with Eomer.

[Macalaure]

While I do see where some of those who suspect Valier come from, I fear that lynching her means going the easy way. Yes, she's not being very helpful, but she rarely is early on, and she's being a little confused, too. It seems, however, that some only suspect Valier for being valierish. Of course, I also would very much like to see how her early hunch of Aganzir is going to turn out.

But I don't like lynching Nerwen as well, and I'm less certain of morm's guilt now.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

If it's the case that Shasta was slain out of fear of his being a Seer, then perhaps a wolf or two was involved in stirring up trouble for him yesterday. He did end up with a few votes, after all, and for rather dubious reasons. I didn't understand at all why Shasta was being picked on.

I'm probably wrong and not everyone acts the same way when a Seer, but I for one am always on the look out for Seer hints in the first few posts; and I am very sure that werewolves are too. So it might be possible that the wolves saw Shasta's rather prophetic musings on Nogrod -- in his first post -- and saw the gifted where there was none.

It might be a stretch but if it's wrong I remain baffled by the choice of kill last night, and there hasn't been too much discussion about it in the village today.

So the votes of Farael and Rikae look most suspicious. Nerwen (who I am still quite suspicious of, but mostly for other reasons) was at least undoubtedly interested in saving herself. Farael and Rikae: I realise that we all have to pick someone (and day 1 is the hardest) but why is it that you decided on this one player, who just happened to be so threatening to the wolves that they killed him despite his accruing more votes than any villager other than Nogrod?

Just curious.

[Farael]

From my part, I can say I voted for Shasta as it was a "safe" vote... not safe as in "I won't get suspected over it" but rather safe in a "well, he's been all over the place, I don't think he's adding to the village and so even if I'm wrong I won't be getting rid of a player who's been coming up with valuable discussion"

Conversely, Nogrod did not look good to me, but I wasn't sold on his guilt and I felt I could've used another day's worth of his posts to determine whether I should vote for him or not.

As it turns out, I was far off

Keep in mind that hindsight is 20-20 but at the time Shasta did not look as Ordo as he does now

Edit: X-ed with... ugh, this doesn't show the last few posts. Ok, whoever wrote after Eomer
Edit: Isabell

[Farael]

Votes (Based on Morm's list)

Valier for Agan (Agan 1)
Legate for Valier (Agan 1, Valier 1)
Boromir for Morm (Agan 1, Valier 1, Morm 1)
Valier retracts Agan and votes Nerwen (Valier 1, Morm 1, Nerwen 1)
The Might for Eomer (Valier 1, Morm 1, Nerwen 1, Eomer 1)
Nerwen for Valier (Valier 2, Morm 1, Nerwen 1, Eomer 1)
Rikae for Valier (Valier 3, Morm 1, Nerwen 1, Eomer 1)
SpM for Valier (Valier 4, Morm 1, Nerwen 1, Eomer 1)
Mac for Morm (Valier 4, Morm 2, Nerwen 1, Eomer 1)
Morm for Nerwen (Valier 4, Morm 2, Nerwen 2, Eomer 1)
Agan for Mac (Valier 4, Morm 2, Nerwen 2, Eomer 1, Mac 1)
Farel for Valier (Valier 5, Morm 2, Nerwen 2, Eomer 1, Mac 1)
Isabell for Nerwen (Valier 5, Morm 2, Nerwen 3, Eomer 1, Mac 1)

[Aganzir]

Isabell, see my post #216. I explained my reasons for voting Nogrod and "threatening" Shasta, but if you are curious, I can explain it again with more details.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Farael

From my part, I can say I voted for Shasta as it was a "safe" vote... not safe as in "I won't get suspected over it" but rather safe in a "well, he's been all over the place, I don't think he's adding to the village and so even if I'm wrong I won't be getting rid of a player who's been coming up with valuable discussion"

Conversely, Nogrod did not look good to me, but I wasn't sold on his guilt and I felt I could've used another day's worth of his posts to determine whether I should vote for him or not.

As it turns out, I was far off

Keep in mind that hindsight is 20-20 but at the time Shasta did not look as Ordo as he does now

Edit: X-ed with... ugh, this doesn't show the last few posts. Ok, whoever wrote after Eomer
Edit: Isabell

Woah! This post throws up red flags all over in my mind. He seems overly genuine, if you take my meaning. I was getting a good vibe on Farael for the most part until this. Granted, it's not enough to make me change my vote but I think it needs to be mentioned. Everything in it seems contrived. I'm not sure why, at this point, he feels the need to explain his vote; especially when there hasn't been many, if any, questions raised about it. Then the 'As it turns out and hindsight being 20/20' lines really bother me.

We have only Zali, Kath and Eomer who haven't voted...obviously Zali isn't likely to vote