WW XXXXI: With a Twist

[Rikae]

It turns out that I'll have far less time today than I thought I would, so I fear I'll have to vote soon.
This debate between Nerwen/Kath/Valier looks ugly to me. None of them are really making any sense -Nerwen's original points about Kath seemed quite solid to me (the wording of "screamed" seems odd to me, too, and I don't see why Nerwen's confusion about the rules should have looked so suspicious to Kath yesterday), and I don't really see why she dropped it so quickly, as Kath's explanation really is no explanation at all. Still, I agree that a wolf-Nerwen would have been unlikely to kill Shasta.

Then Nerwen goes for Valier in a tone I don't quite approve of, but for reasons that I have to agree with, again. I can't see how Valier managed to misread Nerwen's points against Kath so flagrantly, and hunches aside, I simply don't trust this "no explanations" style of play. Macalaure has tracked down wolves by pure intuition as well (in other games - I don't quite trust him now), but at least he tries to find some factual support for his "hunches" rather than expecting the rest of us to go along with them simply because he says so.

At this point, my vote is likely to go to Macalaure, whose suspicions toward Aganzir simply have too little to back them up (why Aganzir? He seems to be just trying to convince us it's possible for her to be a wolf, without telling us why it's likely), or to Valier, who indeed seems to be "using her reputation", and her misinterpretation of Nerwen's post seems more like a deliberate misrepresentation to me.

I would also like one thing clarified (sorry if I missed something): Boro, you say you changed your vote to Shasta to save Nogrod. Why, then, didn't you switch to Nerwen instead?

EDIT: X'd with Mac

[Kath]

Rikae, my suspicion of Nerwen has nothing to do with confusion about the rules, it was just the way she reacted. Basically my suspicion of her rests on the idea that she was being completely over the top. I like that she is defending herself because I think it possible that the two of us are seeing things from completely different points of view and that's causing the problem. Which is also why I wanted you to keep answering me yesterDay Nerwen, I would not have said you were being 'overly defensive' because I wanted an explanation. Your lack of one is what finally convinced me to vote for you.

Oh, and speaking of that, I was going over the posts from yesterDay and you said that I voted for you right after you came up with a Boro/Kath wolf theory and that that made me suspicious. Can I ask why because I didn't entirely understand that.

But, now, as interesting as this all is I do need to take a look at the rest of the village while I actually have some time (everyone is now too stuffed to demand my attention!). So let's go for that tried and tested method, a nice list.

Aganzir ~ short but subtantial. I'll have to have a look at why people think she's suspicious in a bit because I haven't seen that and am inclined to think her innocent at the moment.

Zali ~ sadly non-applicable.

Boro ~ really not sure about him. He takes a comment by someone and then turns it into a generalised piece of advice. There was some more individual stuff later though.

Eomer ~ well he had a point about arguing yourself in circles. Still, I always want to see more from him. I know he observes, as I usually do, but a few more words would be nice.

Farael ~ as I said yesterDay he has actually been pretty reasonable. I'm not sure that I've seen him evil before though, and he is playing a little differently to normal, so maybe there is something there. He hasn't latched on to anyone to lynch yet and that's giving me pause for thought. He's been flicking between people and that just doesn't seem like him.

Izzy ~ not a lot of substance there.

Legate ~ there was some suspicion of his for his pre-game theory but I don't think there's much reasoning there. It was something to say to start off the Day and get people talking. Again he seemed to be being pretty reasonable.

Mac ~ I don't know. I just don't. I don't think I've ever been able to read Mac and I simply can't make up my mind about him.

morm ~ is feeling innocent to me, which has me worried (). What has me even more worried is that he actually has the same suspicions as I do. We'll have to see how that goes.

Nerwen ~ we know my feelings here.

Rikae ~ she does seem to be twisting words somewhat, at least when it comes to the argument between Nerwen and myself.

Might ~ I would like to know why if Shasta was guilty I would be too, that was an interesting comment. Also, within the space of about a minute he seems to change his mind over Nerwen, not sure if Might is the flip-floppy type but it was definitely odd.

Sauce ~ ... well, it's Sauce! What am I supposed to do? The Seer could reveal him as innocent as I'd still be suspicious. I may reserve judgement for now as we've seen so little of him.

Valier ~ as I recall I accused her of playing on her reputation last game and she turned out to be innocent so I'd like to give her the benefit of the doubt. Also, she seems to be defending the way she plays rather than advocating it this game.

Hmm, that isn't quite as comprehensive as I'd like it to be but I have to go again. I will just quickly outline my suspicions, though not in any particular order.

Suspicious:
Nerwen
Farael
Rikae
Might

Innocent:
Valier
Legate
Aganzir

No idea:
Sauce
morm
Mac
Izzy
Eomer
Boro
Zali <-- obviously.

Given a little more time I should be able to cut down that 'no idea' list a bit because it is way too long. I would really love for Izzy and Eomer to be a bit more vocal because I want to put them on the innocent list as I'm leaning that way, but I want a bit more information first.

[The Saucepan Man]

At the moment, I am toying with voting for one of yesterDay’s Nog voters. But I don’t want to focus too much on one aspect of the game, so my current thoughts on everyone are as follows.

Aganzir: I think that there is some merit in the theory that she colluded with Noggie to get him lynched and thus acquire a mask of innocence. However, because her vote came before Nog’s spurious case against Rikae and because her explanation for her vote seems credible, I am less inclined to think her guilty than some of the others who voted for Nog. Other than that, she seems to be making sense.

Azaelia: No show.

Boromir88: I am inclined to trust him for now, for the reasons stated earlier. And I agree with Eomer that, being a talkative soul, a Wolfish Boro will get himself into trouble sooner or later.

Farael: Farael seems to be genuine so far, coming up with ideas and throwing out theories to test the water. I would like to hear more from him toDay but, other than that, no major concerns.

Isabellkya: I haven’t got much of a read on her yet. She hasn’t really said or done anything controversial, which worries me slightly, and is liable to be overlooked, if we’re not careful. But I have no real reason to suspect her as yet.

Kath: I am slightly worried about Kath. Her case against Nerwen looks to have been built on weak foundations, yet she persists with it. I have a vague suspicion that the Wolves may have picked Nerwen as a lynch candidate toDay, using the fact that Nog failed to vote for her to save himself, and Kath has added that as one of her reasons for suspecting Nerwen.

Legate: If there was a late Wolfish vote for Nogrod, it may well be here. Legate’s reaction to the Nog-Rikae thing could well have been contrived to make him look good. Also, he too raised doubts about Nerwen on the basis of Nog not retracting to vote for her. I would like to hear more of an explanation from him as to why he switched his vote to Nog.

Macalaure: I am still unsure about this Nog-Mac theory, but I have said more than enough about it already. Suffice to say that I think it a possibility and so could see myself voting for Mac toDay.

Mormegil: I could go either way on morm. I suspected him yesterDay for his strange (to me) accusations of Farael and Rikae. But, it was Day 1 and he seems to have come up with some more solid ideas toDay.

Nerwen: I can see what others mean when they say that she is coming across as jumpy and nervy, and I am not sure what to make of her spat with Kath. However, I still think it unlikely that a Wolfish Nerwen would have slain Shasta. Of the two, Kath concerns me more.

Rikae: Other than Nog’s vote for her, I have no reason to suspect her. However, as I said earlier, I would expect a Wolfish Rikae to act normally, especially when under no pressure. She suspects Mac, which I find interesting. Nog put forward the theory yesterDay that she and Mac are Wolves together and, while he undoubtedly did so with Wolfish intent, I wouldn’t put it past him to tell a truth so as to conceal it, particularly if he was already planning with his fellows to contrive his own demise.

The Might: I have no idea at all about the Might. I think that he is on the wrong track with Eomer but, whether Wolfishly so, I cannot tell.

Eomer: As with Boro, I am inclined to trust him now for reasons stated earlier. It also helps that his thoughts on everyone are quite similar to my own.

Valier: Valier has given very little away about her suspicions, other than to involve herself in the Kath-Nerwen spat, on the side of Kath. As explained earlier, she does not seems as confident in her hunches as normal, which could indicate Wolifshness. Of the non-Nog voters, she is probably my main suspect at present.

[The Saucepan Man]

Basically my suspicion of her rests on the idea that she was being completely over the top. I like that she is defending herself because I think it possible that the two of us are seeing things from completely different points of view and that's causing the problem.

Well that certainly 'pinged' my radar and Kath has just promoted herself to a very respectable position on my suspect list.

Two reasons. First, Nerwen's reaction to the Seer-Cursed thing was early on in the game, when there was still some residual banter about. Her 'Come back!' was in reaction to Nog saying he was going off to chop wood or something. It doesn't seem 'completely over the top' at all to me. And secondly, Kath has given herself some 'wiggle room' to draw back from her suspicion of Nerwen here, saying that it might be because they are looking at things differently. She did the exact same thing yesterDay with Boro, as I recall. It seems to me to be quite a Wolfish thing to do - to advance a case and see what comes of it, while giving oneself room to withdraw from it if it doesn't take off.

Top suspects now:

Mac
Valier
Kath
Legate
Aganzir

... in pretty much that order, although it's pretty close between them all at the moment.

[Rikae]

Well, I'll have to vote now. I really would like to get to the bottom of the Valier situation - perhaps her role will shed some light on Kath and Nerwen. I particularly think the way Valier and Kath deal with each other is fishy. Macalaure, if he's innocent, deserves a chance to explain himself, but I still think he should be watched very closely from now on. And so:

++Valier

[The Saucepan Man]

I decided to take a claser look at The Might, since I haven’t got much of a read on him as yet. Day 1, his only substantive points, other than a few comments about the phanto-mod’s possible ‘twists’, involve going against Shasta and being somewhat defensive of Nerwen. If Shasta was targeted as a possible Day 1 scapegoat, then this might be indicative of Wolfishness. Also, he didn’t vote yesterDay, which has been explained, but seems a little convenient, given the interesting way that the votes went.

One thing that jumped out at me, though, is this:

Originally Posted by The Might

If I'm right about Shasta, then Kath seems suspicious as well, while Legate will probably be innocent.

You weren’t right about Shasta, but I don’t get your reasoning at all here. Would you mind explaining, please?

As for toDay, his vote for Eomer looks to be based on rather weak reasoning, and is likely to be somewhat of a ‘throwaway’ vote, given that Eomer (surprisingly, for him ) has not come under much suspicion thus far.

I also took a quick look at Valier, to see if my concern about her is warranted, and noticed this:

Originally Posted by Valier

Well since now my time is even more limited I will try and explain myself as best I can. I know my reasons may not always be that good, I can only try. I like to read and observe how people interact with each other and their reactions to different situations. So saying that, my list of suspects is made up of people who I just don't quite get. Something seems furry about them. For now I think that in some way these 6 stand out to me in some way that don't feel good.
My list goes from most suspicious to least.

Nerwen
Shasta
Mormegil
Macalaure
Isabellkya
Kath

I understand that your time was limited, as was mine yesterDay, but a little explanation here wouldn’t have gone amiss. Fair enough, you work by hunches, but it would help if you gave a little explanation as to what you find ‘furry’ about your suspects. The same goes for the ‘circumstances’ vote for Aganzir which, although retracted, appears to have been based on very little indeed. It seems to me that those who are suggesting that you are relying on your reputation to avoid giving explanations may have a point.

I am going to have to vote now, as I may not have a chance to get back before the deadline. Currently, it’s a toss up for me between Mac and Valier. Valier has 3 votes and Mac none. So I’ll go for the one which has more chance of counting.

++Valier

Adios amigos!

[Macalaure]

Not much has been said since I've been here last. And even less has been to my liking.

Originally Posted by Rikae

At this point, my vote is likely to go to Macalaure, whose suspicions toward Aganzir simply have too little to back them up (why Aganzir? He seems to be just trying to convince us it's possible for her to be a wolf, without telling us why it's likely)

*sigh*
Do you want me to state the whole thing again with more detail? It seems futile right now, since Aganzir will hardly be lynched today. I'm not going to.

Originally Posted by Espiem

Macalaure: I am still unsure about this Nog-Mac theory, but I have said more than enough about it already. Suffice to say that I think it a possibility and so could see myself voting for Mac toDay.

You know, Sauce, until now you were the one I considered to look most innocent. And now you put me on the top of your suspect list (even though you voted Valier) based on that - a possibility? You can't be serious...

It's funny that all the people who keep on suspecting me don't dare to put their money where their mouths are.


I had a closer look at Kath and found myself disagreeing with almost everything she said. Still, what she said seemed genuine and more innocent than suspicious. I always have a hard time figuring out Kath. Maybe we just have a different approach, since she seems to have a similar problem with me.

Right now it's:

Valier 4 (Legate, Nerwen, Rikae, SPM)
morm 1 (Boro)
Nerwen 1 (Valier)
Eomer 1 (Miggy)

It seems like the Nerwen bandwaggon is not taking off. Good. But I'm not too comfortable with a Valier-waggon as well. Since Aganzir will unlikely be lynched, I think I will vote my second-best suspect, mormegil. Among those who already have votes, he's clearly my favourite. Yes, I'll be there until the deadline to retract if something happens to change my mind, but I feel the need to have a competing bandwaggon right now, before the Valier-waggon gets out of hands, and I want it to be one that I like, so I won't end up choosing between two evils near the deadline.

++mormegil

[mormegil]

I hope to have enough time on lunch to quickly review Nerwen...so my format will be talking about points as I read them in her posts.

In post 84 she questions my early suspicions of Farael. I gave, at the time, the best explination I had which was admittedly very weak but I wanted to get things moving a bit and Farael seemed overly loud to me. If I remember correctly Nerwen has questioned others regarding their suspicions.

Post 90 she reminds us of the ability wolves have to PM each other. I think it could easily be a wolf reminding us of a rule to help her look good. She also points out that people were jumping aboard with Mac and me on our suspicions of Nogrod and Farael. At this point nobody was jumping on board and no bandwagon had formed. It is this behavior that makes me think she is jumpy. This could also be and early attempt to defend Nogrod and include Farael (who I think innocent) to round it off.

Post 93 she seems to get defensive quick and thought I was jumpy for explaining, as she requested, my suspicion over Farael. I basically said that I need to have some suspicions be it weak or strong and the best I had was weak. She seemed a bit over the top to me and I remember just calmly explaining this, so this seems odd.

Post 95 jumps out to me, in talking about the wolves being able to PM she stated:

Of course they might also decide they can afford to start accusing each other, even this early in the game.

Honestly, I don't know what to make of this. She could be ahead of the curve on this and pointing out what could be happening or she simply could be a wolf and they had planned this strategy.

Post 103 she throws suspicion on Shasta over Shasta thanking her for pointing out that wolves can PM. She thought that Shasta might be pulling a double bluff but concluded that it is not overly likely. It seems that she is setting it up here to show that by knowing and pointing it out to others she is no longer suspicious.

Post 118 is a post which she moves around a lot and there is not a common thread. She writes off her 'cursed seer' thing as early day 1 silliness which is understandable. She talks a bit about Nogrod, Boro and Kath but no conclusions.


AHH I just looked she has a total of 35 posts! I only covered page 3 up to this point..I didn't even look on page 2. I doubt I'll get through most of her posts.

Post 136 she talks a bit about a few players and is sure not to commit to much of anything but this is interesting from the post

At the moment I'm wavering between Morm and Shasta. I could be persuaded to vote Boro– or maybe even Kath (or Mac... or Nogrod...). We'll see

It's almost as if she is inviting somebody to sway her so that she doesn't take responsibility for her choice. She seems very non-commital in her thoughts and that always reeks of wolfish fur to me.

She ends up voting for Shasta who is innocent not that that alone means she guilty but it is something to be remembered.

Post 196 she explains the Shasta kill in a fairly satisfactory way. She talks briefly about the Nogrod wolf-on-wolf vote and says that it must have been a communication breakdown. No I think it was likely that you are another wolf and that if both you and Nogrod were saved at Shasta's expense there would have been two wolves revealed and not one. It would have been far too obvious.

This is all I have time for but I have a decent recollection of her other posts in Day 2 and those were the ones that really got me considering her in the first place so that coupled with what I have seen of her in the earlier posts leads me to believe that she is a wolf.

++Nerwen

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Mac

You know, Sauce, until now you were the one I considered to look most innocent. And now you put me on the top of your suspect list (even though you voted Valier) based on that - a possibility? You can't be serious...

Mac, you seem to suspect anybody who suspects you...it's not healthy, trust me. Sadly, I have a habit of doing that and more often than not I am wrong about it. It's a problem I'm working on...I think I'm on step 8 of a 12 step program. So while I understand the knee-jerk reaction it doesn't help allay my fears of you.

[Aganzir]

Innocent:
Boro
Eomer
Farael
Kath
morm
Rikae

Guilty:
Mac. Reasons stated in 80% of my posts.
Legate. I can't really put my finger on it, but there's something wrong. He doesn't resemble any of those innocent-Legates (ordo, gifted) I've seen, but despite being slightly suspicious, doesn't resemble a wolf-Legate either. If there was a cobbler, I think he'd fit the role perfectly. He just seems to be a complete, deliberate opposite to the normal Legate.

Originally Posted by Mac

Do you want me to state the whole thing again with more detail? It seems futile right now, since Aganzir will hardly be lynched today. I'm not going to.

Well, at least I'd be interested to see it.
Though I can understand it feels a bit futile to spend much time and energy on a person you know is innocent. I will hardly be lynched today, true, but what if you will be? For an innocent, it should never be too early to tell clearly why he thinks someone is a wolf.
You had a better case against me when we were fellow wolves in the last game.

++ Macalaure

I'll take my dog for a walk & return then.

[mormegil]

So I had a post by post analysis of Kath prepare and somehow the whole thing was erased. (I'm on my laptop and sometimes when I hit backspace it makes the webpage go back so I lost the whole post) Anyway instead of repeating it I will sumarize. Kath basically hasn't said much. Only 6 posts, which is one of the reasons I'm looking at her. First because I'm concerned about her and The Might only posting 6 times as it's easy to fly under the radar.

She mainly has spent her time in giving some weak and some fairly solid points against Nerwen and defending herself from the early attack from Boromir. It is in post 222 that I feel she is most innocent and makes me feel better about her. She seems very sincere and genuine here and not desparate. I really do believe that she is simply out of time and is frustrated by her lack of participation though I would like to hear from her today and see a vote as we didn't get one yesterday, and one more no vote would mean death to her.

Anyway, I hope to look at The Might next.

[mormegil]

Post 86 is an odd post indeed. I'm not really sure why he is saying what he is saying here. He starts by going after Shasta a bit for going after Nerwen and defending some IC talk. Then he says something about TP having players post certain things??? I don't get this bit at all. He talks about the twists and is glad day 1 is longer.


Post 116 talks briefly about Nerwen and Shasta. He thinks Nerwen is innocent enough and Shasta guilty. He concludes that if Shasta is guilty so is Kath which makes Legate innocent Feels that it is too early to begin making too many connections between players but already made the Shasta-Kath-Legate connection.

Post 117 is a quick follow-up to a question Eomer made about what Nerwen said and thinks she is giving sound advice and doesn't appear wolfish. He seems to be doing a lot of Nerwen defending already. He ends the post with this:

I could of course be wrong...

This is always a bit worrisome but innocents do this too.

Also, it is important to note that there is not vote on day 1.

Post 198 he talks in circles and I don't really follow what he said here. He does apologize for a no vote and says he was confused on the time, which being how unusual day 1's time was is moderately understandable.

Post 230 again he defends Nerwen and begins to be suspicious of Eomer, which came out of nowhere. Mainly he suspects him because of his Day 1 vote for Nerwen and votes for Eomer.

This is really odd. In almost every post so far he has mentioned Nerwen in a positive light. Why is he so intent upon saying she appears innocent in every post?

Post 283

I do feel a bit better about him after reading the last post. It's good that he gave us his thoughts for a change.

I think he is refering to Eomer but this is rich coming from somebody who has only posted 6 times and all very short and insubstantial.

I guess we won't find out who was the wolves' target...that would be interesting.

These lines always scare me, as did Farael's first post of the day, as they seem to contrived to be sincere.

To SPM, I thought that way because Kath defended Shasta after Nerwen's attack. So it kind of figured that if Shasta, who I did suspect at that time was a wolf, so would be Kath.

And yet, this is somebody who has defended Nerwen, whom I suspect greatly, in basically every post. He does so indirectly in this post with the above quote.

Conclusion:

I really don't trust The Might. I've seen nothing of any substance, a missed vote, constant defense of somebody I highly suspect, an odd out of the blue vote for Eomer who I think innocent, a contrived sounding statement about who was protected, and just a low post volume. This all adds up to put The Might high on the suspect list.

[Isabellkya]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Post 86 is an odd post indeed. I'm not really sure why he is saying what he is saying here. He starts by going after Shasta a bit for going after Nerwen and defending some IC talk. Then he says something about TP having players post certain things??? I don't get this bit at all. He talks about the twists and is glad day 1 is longer.

I think I can shed some light on this aspect which you seem to be confused about; as I'm familiar with it from other games I've played. It is referred to as a posting requirement. It can be anything, including a certain word in one post each day; or lyrics of a song.. practically anything the MC can imagine. I once had the unfortunate task of having to make a post each day in 1337 speak.. which was ech. Sometimes, other players can give you posting requirements.. all depending on roles and the MC. Typically, if you fulfill your posting requirements, you get 'gifts' or special powers; which can range from anything the MC fancies to give you. It can be a shield raise, a vigilante daykill, a resurrection...etc. However I think it would be odd to see such things here at BD; as it is a different game setup.

Back to more current things.. I saw somewhere on the thread, but couldn't find the actual post; but someone made the comment of Boro being a controversial player. I definately think I see a bit of that here in this game.. can't exactly compare to other games.. but definately something to watch out for.

mm kay, I'll continue reading now.

[Kath]

I will be back for the deadline. I WILL. But just in case I'm not.

++NERWEN

Because I don't dare not vote and I am at least suspicious of her. I WILL be back!

[Farael]

Votes thus far

Kath : Nerwen (Nerwen 1)
Nerwen : Mormegil (Nerwen 1, Morm 1)
Mormegil : Nerwen (Nerwen 2, Morm 1)
Nerwen : - Morm (Nerwen 2)
Boromir : Might (Nerwen 2, Might 1)
Might : Eomer (Nerwen 2, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Saucepan : Mac (Nerwen 2, Might 1, Eomer 1, Mac 1)
Farael: Mac (Nerwen 2, Mac 2, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Aganzir : Mac (Mac 3, Nerwen 2, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Isabellyka: Nerwen (Mac 3, Nerwen 3, Might 1, Eomer 1)

[Farael]

Another votes update


Kath : Nerwen (Nerwen 1)
Nerwen : Mormegil (Nerwen 1, Morm 1)
Mormegil : Nerwen (Nerwen 2, Morm 1)
Nerwen : - Morm (Nerwen 2)
Boromir : Might (Nerwen 2, Might 1)
Might : Eomer (Nerwen 2, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Saucepan : Mac (Nerwen 2, Might 1, Eomer 1, Mac 1)
Farael: Mac (Nerwen 2, Mac 2, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Aganzir : Mac (Mac 3, Nerwen 2, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Isabellyka: Nerwen (Mac 3, Nerwen 3, Might 1, Eomer 1)
Rikae: Aganzir (Mac 3, Nerwen 3, Might 1, Eomer 1, Aganzir 1)
Macalaure Aganzir (Mac 3, Nerwen 3, Aganzir 2, Might 1, Eomer 1)

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

So, does no-one else think we may have an extra wolf on our hands now? That would be grim. Or am I missing something about the narrative?

The events of yesterday were overall rather confusing. I note that the Hunter only kills if her chosen villain was indeed a wolf (from the game rules). Valier obviously killed ordo Azaelia, but this was clearly to tie different threads of the game together. Azaelia, due to lack of involvement, had to perish. But if we consider it very likely that Valier did not choose to kill Azaelia, can we then suppose that Valier's top suspect is therefore not a wolf?

Also, a little bird has given me this idea, and I thought I'd throw it out there. The Mod has said something (slightly ambiguous) about dealing a blow to the side of those villagers who do not meet the requirements of the game -- in this case Azaelia. Being ordinary, is it possible that the Mod has punished Azaelia's side (the innocent villagers) and refused to condemn the Hunter's chosen werewolf?

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

So, does no-one else think we may have an extra wolf on our hands now? That would be grim. Or am I missing something about the narrative?

The events of yesterday were overall rather confusing. I note that the Hunter only kills if her chosen villain was indeed a wolf (from the game rules). Valier obviously killed ordo Azaelia, but this was clearly to tie different threads of the game together. Azaelia, due to lack of involvement, had to perish. But if we consider it very likely that Valier did not choose to kill Azaelia, can we then suppose that Valier's top suspect is therefore not a wolf?

Also, a little bird has given me this idea, and I thought I'd throw it out there. The Mod has said something (slightly ambiguous) about dealing a blow to the side of those villagers who do not meet the requirements of the game -- in this case Azaelia. Being ordinary, is it possible that the Mod has punished Azaelia's side (the innocent villagers) and refused to condemn the Hunter's chosen werewolf?

I hadn't actually thought of that. However, if that were the case I think Farael may have been it due to his first statement today. It leads us all to believe that it was the ranger and not the cursed.

I had thought for sure it was the ranger based upon what was written but upon closer examination I'm not so sure...

Originally Posted by The Phantom

but before it all the unmistakable ringing of a sword being drawn from its sheath.

After several minutes of clatter, a loud yelping was heard, as if some beast had been hurt. And then... silence.

As the dawn came, veiled and cool, the villagers emerged from their houses and were met with a surprise.

No one was missing.

"A victory has been had!" cried the voice outside the encompassing smokes.

"Nay!" answered the fog. "It is I who have had the victory this night."

"So say you!" returned the voice

The sword is what convinces me that the ranger helped...however reading the other part more closely than I did at first makes me wonder. It is very ambiguous on both. Either way, we still have some wolves to kill so I don't want to get too hung up on this, though if it is true that we have a new wolf that means that the ranger does not know an innocent as previously thought.

[Nerwen]

I don’t have much time right now, but I will do what I can. Some notes on people:

Mac– I felt, on the first Day, that there was something false about Nogrod and Mac’s interactions. Mac’s attempts to cast suspicion on other people also seem rather forced. Against that– well he did deliver a wolf. I think people are dismissing that much too lightly. I mean, a wolf might want to lynch another wolf to appear innocent– but then, you know, an innocent might want to lynch a wolf too. If I had to choose between voting Mac and SpM, I’d perhaps choose Mac– but I'd rather not have to.

Eomer: Did anyone else notice his remark at the close of yesterDay, that he didn't care whether Valier or I got lynched? Is that because he suspected us both, as he said, or because from his point of view it really didn't matter– i.e. he's a wolf and doesn't care which innocent gets it? This is just a thought, mind you. His explanation of his reasons for trying to save Nogrod seemed pretty genuine to me.

Kath: I made my case against her yesterDay. I've got nothing to add to it, except the way she started to back off her suspicions of me, but has now voted me– is this because SpM said something about the way she seemed to be carefully giving herself room to back down?

Now for my current main suspect. Let’s look at some highlights of Mormegil’s career–

He casts random suspicions around:

Originally Posted by mormegil

Farael seems the most, in your face, vocal person which always makes me wonder, but to be fair it seems fairly standard for him and I do tend to be a bit suspicious of him but if I were to pick a suspect now it would be him.

He suspects other people for casting random suspicions around; suspects anyone who disagrees with him; is highly jumpy and defensive:

Originally Posted by mormegil

I'm not entirely sure what you are talking about here Nerwen. You seem rather bothered that I voiced some suspicion over Farael and yet what are we supposed to do? How is this?

I'm suspicious of nobody and everybody must be innocent?

I stated that it was a stretch but I might as well state the one minor suspicion I had.

On the other hand, Rikae, in her two posts, seems rather overly eager and antsy to throw suspicion all over, much like a wolf would do.

Honestly these are weak suspicions but right now Rikae is the top then Nerwen and Farael rounding off 2 and 3 respectively.

(Note that prior to this he had shown no signs of suspecting me at all– apparently it's straight-out revenge.)

He attacks other people for being defensive:

Originally Posted by mormegil

The more Nerwen speaks the more I think she is a jumpy wolf that feels that she needs to defend everything she does or says and any accusation thrown at her. Wolves often fall into this pitfall of getting overly jumpy and anxious and I think Nerwen has fallen into that pitall.

His latest is another attack on someone for having a different opinion:

Originally Posted by mormegil

I really don't trust The Might. I've seen nothing of any substance, a missed vote, constant defense of somebody I highly suspect, an odd out of the blue vote for Eomer who I think innocent, a contrived sounding statement about who was protected, and just a low post volume. This all adds up to put The Might high on the suspect list.

Now, The Might has not "constantly defended" me, or anything like it. And the vote for Eomer was hardly unreasonable, given Eomer's last-minute attempt to save a known wolf! (I myself think Eomer is probably innocent, but that's not the point.)

In conclusion– I don't know if Morm's a wolf or just a serious hypocrite. I think he's a wolf.

EDIT: X'd with Mormegil and Eomer.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

So, does no-one else think we may have an extra wolf on our hands now? That would be grim.

It's possible. From the narrative I think it's more likely the Ranger was involved– but as you say, it's confusing. Deliberately so, I imagine. All we can do, I suppose, is look out for someone whose behaviour changes.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Also, a little bird has given me this idea, and I thought I'd throw it out there. The Mod has said something (slightly ambiguous) about dealing a blow to the side of those villagers who do not meet the requirements of the game -- in this case Azaelia. Being ordinary, is it possible that the Mod has punished Azaelia's side (the innocent villagers) and refused to condemn the Hunter's chosen werewolf?

I hadn't thought of that. Yes, it's possible. So depending on how you interpret it, the results of last Night might point either directly towards or directly away from those of us whom Valier suspected.

However, I believe Azaelia gave notice in the WW42 admin thread that she was dropping out, so I don't know if what she did counts as failing to vote (which I suppose is what The Phantom meant).

EDIT: X'd with Legate.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

All right, people, I'm back and I hope to give some time to sorting my thoughts out during the rest of toDay.

First, a response:

Originally Posted by TM

And to Legate, this has something to do with the fact that I have vacation now and thus a lot more time on my hands. So instead of learning for some test I can think a bit more rather then just post quickly.

Good to hear that, if there is really nothing more behind it, then it's okay. Yet I must say one thing that troubles me, TM - if you have so much time on your hands, why do your posts stay mostly on jumping between three or four people and nothing to say on others? It looks like programmedly turning around several suspects.

But, let's move now on to other things.

I was somewhat doubtful about Mac's theory about Aganzir, nevertheless, his arguments as summed up in one of his last posts sound quite convincing. I, for one, am the last person to base my suspicions on what someone else says. However, after re-reading Agan's posts, I am getting the bad feeling that maybe this clever Agan-wolf came among us once again. But I thought also about her voting: on Day 1 she voted Nog, as we all know. On Day 2, she voted for Mac - and that was absolutely throwaway vote at that time. I thought that maybe, had she been a wolf, after the 1st-Day fall of her packmate, she decided to back up a little and hide out of sight, while (eventually) building up a case against Mac for further use. I could also add that this move will also serve well if Mac is a wolf - a safe vote for a fellow wolf (as opposite to unsafe-going vote on Day 1). Of course I don't want to overcombinate things, yet this is also a possibility (though I am inclined to belive Mac innocent right now).

Concerning the other players. I must say it is quite hard for me to make my mind about the "high-class" vocal players, as there's too many of them: including dead Nogrod, with SpM and Boro and Mac and morm and Farael this makes almost half of the village. It would be quite improbable that a wolf wouldn't be among them (although if he weren't, the worse for us). But I must say these are very dangerous waters for me, as the discussions are tangled and it is hard to spot anything. Who intrigues me the most currently is SpM. YesterDay, he supported the suspicions on Valier short after it was voiced, which could be this "voice of Saruman"-tactics without actually voting himself, and when the bandwaggon was rolling, he conviniently jumped in. On the other hand, his vote for Nog on Day 1 was the second one, which on the other hand would speak for his innocence. SpM is clearly not a stupid player and he could have retracted still. What I want to say, mainly: whatever the case, we should not forget SpM (I originally mistyped and wrote RPG ), because if Nog's death was orchestrated, this could serve him well.
I am probably going to do a larger analysis of some of these people, if I have the chance, yet this could also mean spending several hours by this (given the length of their posts). Whatever, I will start with SpM and will see.

One word about Nerwen. She looked innocent to me at the beginning, but given her votes and discussions with people, like with Valier and Kath yesterDay she starts to seem more and more suspicious. Yet I would like to say - don't be too hasty, hum hom, because it is also possible that an innocent under pressure (as Nerwen surely is) may start to behave suspiciously. So, I would advise being careful.

Also let me say Rikae's vote yesterDay made me a little wary of her. I don't have any strong suspicion about her, yet she convinently joined the Valier bandwagon at the crucial point and the way she voted, during her quick appearance, moved her to the orange zone for me.

Okay, so I guess that's the main things I had in mind now, will be back later hopefully with some conclusions.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

One word about Nerwen. She looked innocent to me at the beginning, but given her votes and discussions with people, like with Valier and Kath yesterDay she starts to seem more and more suspicious. Yet I would like to say - don't be too hasty, hum hom, because it is also possible that an innocent under pressure (as Nerwen surely is) may start to behave suspiciously. So, I would advise being careful.

Legate, what can I say? I've had to face continual attacks, many of them on grounds I consider very strange (look at the reasons people gave for voting me on Day One). It's getting frustrating– I'd have liked to be able to contribute more to this game, but as it is I've had to spend most of my efforts on just staying alive.

[Nerwen]

I have to go now, so here's my vote:

++Mormegil

For reasons I've already stated.

Given the way Morm reacts to people who even disagree with him, I'm sure he'll do his best to get me lynched in retaliation, but I don't really care. After a careful read through all his posts, I think there’s a very high likelihood that he’s a wolf. Nobody else looks half as furry to me.

[Boromir88]

I stand corrected about morm...I am way off track with him; he is not a wolf. Sorry bout that, I got carried away, and thought I was onto something when I wasn't.

I think it's time for me to take a serious look at Aganzir, Nerwen, and The Might.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Eomer

But if we consider it very likely that Valier did not choose to kill Azaelia, can we then suppose that Valier's top suspect is therefore not a wolf?

But who was her top suspect? Nerwen, I, someone other?

**

Originally Posted by Mac

All I remember is the possibility of Nog and me being wolves and a few far-fetched interpretations.

I'm not particularly sure what you mean with these "far-fetched interpretations", but I don't think suspecting that two fellow wolves would have acted as Nog and you on Day 1 is far-fetched. The reason why I think so & noticed it so early: stupid or not, I've been thinking for a while that it would be an interesting thing to try when I'm a wolf next time, and thus I don't believe it's something wolves wouldn't do.

As for Isabell, first I was surprised to see someone who had mentioned me once was considering voting for me. Then I was annoyed, as she seemed to be basing her suspicions on things I had already explained and thought were clear enough.

About half of the village found Valier's reasoning for her vote for me quite weak, as it was, and I'm curious to know how you can think it's a valid point against me. She's known to have hunches, true, but she can be wrong as well. You seem to be grasping at straws now.

Originally Posted by Mac

Aganzir for Mac - yes, she goes along with her suspicion, but what she ultimately does is to throw her vote away.

I see no sense in voting someone I think is innocent; ie. everybody who had gathered votes yesterday.

**

My case against Mac, as requested.

From his very first post, he suspects Nogrod. Nothing wrong with that, but the way he does it... It looks as if it had been decided beforehand. Mac looks like he's trying so hard to find something in Nog's posts to base suspicion on.
They also seemed to be too sure of each other's wolvishness. And they both are a bit too... straightforward, rude?

My guess why the plot went bad: as the whole thing had been decided in advance, Mac wasn't careful enough to make his points against Nog better from the very beginning; he knows he's a valuable player for whichever team he's in and didn't believe fellow-Nog would try to get him lynched this early even though Nog sometimes does that with his fellows. He didn't expect Noggie would be accusing him seriously...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Generally it makes me wonder why such a bright player like Mac had nothing to say at that point of the game but to bring forwards all this "out of thin air nothing" about my posts. I mean yes I might be mistaken as when some people just jump on you with this kind of nonsense you tend to feel they are wolves trying to get you. But at this point it's my best explanation to Mac's behaviour.

Originally Posted by Spm

Firstly, Nogrod. Mainly, it is his reaction to Mac’s original points against him. They seemed quite mildly expressed to me. Yet Nogrod’s reaction against them (especially in #113) look to br wholly over the top.

No wonder if they had decided to suspect each other.

I'm not going to repeat here what I said in my post #229.

Last but not least, the Mac-Saucie argument. Mac seems to be deliberately misinterpreting what Saucie has said, and I don't like that. Besides, he seems to be very quick to suspect those who have suspected him, except for Rikae (hoping he could still convince her of his innocence?).

I can't think Mac is anything but a wolf. He's usually too good to leave any obvious tracks, but I believe his and Nog's dispute is such, and it shouldn't be overlooked just because it hasn't happened earlier.

edit: xed since #298

[Nerwen]

Aganzir, as I've stated before, I've had doubts about Mac since Day One. The Mac-Nogrod business struck a number of people as contrived, and I find his counter-attacks on people who suspect him pretty weak.

...On the other, what if he did indeed make a lucky guess about Nogrod– and we lynch him for his pains?

I'm still waiting to hear why Boromir88 has suddenly decided Mormegil is innocent.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

...On the other, what if he did indeed make a lucky guess about Nogrod– and we lynch him for his pains?

I know it is possible, but his behaviour makes me think otherwise. And if they had this plot with Noggie, it was definitely a part of it to make us think Mac was just skilled and really caught a wolf.

And agh, I know I shouldn't be concentrating only on him. I'm leaving soon but when I'm back I guess I'm going to do some reading and try to come up with something about others, too.