WW XXXX - The scouring of the Shire, vol.2

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I'm far from confident of morm's guilt, but he has taken the place of my top suspect, thanks to Valier's death.

Thing is, I really don't think morm would kill Valier. It makes a lot more sense that the wolves are trying to frame him. I know he'd sacrifice himself for a cause (he's done it before), but it just seems so outright stupid for a morm-wolf to kill a villager in the night who seemed to have dreamt about him. Except that it's such a transparent set up that I can't help but think maybe the wolves aren't really trying to frame him, they're just trying to make it look like they are?

In any case, I'm leaning toward morm's innocence. I just don't think he'd have killed Val, especially if she'd dreamt of him. It's just too self-incriminating.

[Farael]

Here's a post I wrote last night, after reading all the posts from day 1 and knowing Nerwen's role. Coment on last night's kill coming up.

------------------------
A few thoughts on the happenings of yester-Day in the light of Nerwen's innocence. But first

Originally Posted by Loomy

This seems a bit vulgar of her. Everybody who's played with her she knows she truly has incredible hunches, but that kind of self-advertisement seems slightly furr (Refering to Valier talking about her hunches)

Loomy, are you kiddin' me? I've made a living out of boasting about my shrewd hunches... and being extremely loud and stubborn. I don't think that Valier is doing anything wrong, but not all of us are as analytical as you. Having said that, my comment was more a *gasp OMG* defense of Valier than an attack on you.

Dang man, did he just defend someone?? (I know, it's a moot point now)What's he going to do next? accuse someone on somewhat circumstancial evidence?


You bet.Would you expect any less from me?

Originally Posted by Rikae

There was definately a sense of Lommy going after Nerwen, pointing out her defensiveness and making her more defensive in the process. I've been at the other end of those sorts of tactics, and it's difficult to emerge unscathed. However, it could also be an instance of good wolf-hunting on Lommy's part. I found Nerwen suspicious to begin with, but at this point, it's difficult to sort out whether her continued suspicious behavior is provoked or real. Not just wolves, but some innocents, behave that way when backed into a corner.

Furthermore

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, I think if I want Nerwen in the running, I have to do it myself, before adding a new candidate is totally out. If she turns out innocent, I'll definately be looking at Lommy as a possible wolf. As I said, I don't find The Might suspicious. I don't see any point in voting for Morm now - there just isn't enough to go on - and I think that knowing the role of Nerwen will shed more light on the Lommy question, while the opposite might not be true.

++Nerwen

Look how Rikae deflects the "Nerwen accusation" to Loomy... and yet, not only Rikae is the first one to vote for Nerwen... she's the one to start the accusations!!!

To me, that sounds like a very clever tactic... offer the bait, and if an eager fish bites on it let them run free... they'll look suspicious and thus you not only kill an ordo, but you make another ordo look bad. Win-win situation anyone?

Rikae's accusation of Nerwen is here

Originally Posted by Rikwolf

Nerwen doesn't say anything, really. We have to work out who's lost and who's quiet? Well, sure, and....? There seems to be less content here then there ought to be - I'm not sure, but it feels like a "look at me, I'm posting, I'm contributing, lynch someone else..." sort of thing.

Now, a word of caution should be said

Waaaaa? First he defended someone, now he's going to flip-flop within his very first post?

I've played in the past with Rikae and disliked her (game-wise, of course) from Day 1, even though I think she was an ordo (can't quite recall). She is very agressive (again, game-wise) and not afraid to point fingers, she went at me with a vengeance that one game!!

However, that's EXACTLY why I suspect her right now. When she started suspecting Nerwen she seemed a little off, but then most people do... but when she shifted the accusations on to Loomy, even though Rikae had started them herself, she looked wolfish. After all, in the past, she's never been afraid to accuse someone!

And neither have I. She's a wolf, or I'll eat my two feet!!

--Farael Twofoot.

P.S: It's a shame that I missed day 1... one of my characters on the LoTR MMORPG is called Folco Twofoot and he's the loveliest of hobbits, I meant to post in-character as him but I never had a chance.

P.P.S: Since Fea mentioned that she did the same thing The Might did when she was guilty, I should mention that I reacted the exact same way one time I was being accused and I was an ordo. I just got frustrated that no-one would listen. I don't think his behaviour is particularly fishy, but it's not a "get out of jail free" card either. Veteran players who have played with me know that I've proven once and again that you can say just about any insanity and go unlynched, while you can say all the right things and gather a lot of suspicion.

That's why I'm not afraid of speaking my mind. Not to mention that The Might does have a point... Werewolf HAS gotten formulaic, while analysis are useful sometimes, they also bog down the game IMO. It's not a basis for suspecting people, as it has become "good manners" to do long, analytical posts where you have tons of quotes and you look at the whole village all at once.

But in my opinion, those posts are useless at this stage of the game.

FIrst of all, we have a near-full complement of villagers, but little hard information to go by. Hard information being:
-Voting patterns
-A dead wolf to analyze his behaviour towards certain people
-A revelation by a Seer

Therefore, I find it more useful in the first few days to go out there and cause a reaction. If everyone is reacting to everyone else, then when we finally nail a wolf (and it will happen) we'll have hard data (the way the wolf acted/reacted towards others). If all we do are long lists that have much content but little reaction and are very well thought-out, we have no evidence.

Why? because reactions are often less premeditated than analysis posts, and therefore more likely to contain a little slip of the furry tounge. Conversely, while writing an analysis, a wolf may look ten times over for those "red flags" that we are all used to noticing. So he posts a red-flag free, seemingly helpful analysis and who's going to suspect him for it? Sure, he might get it all wrong, but don't we all?...


Wow, that's a lot of text... but I'd like to go back to my accusation. Rikae looks suspicious, as she started the accusations against Nerwen, she was the first one to vote for Nerwen and yet she made it look as if it was Loomy who was agressively going after Nerwen. Fishy Fishy Furry.

Edit: Crossed with everyone after FEa's long post of everyone who mentioned VAlier

[Meneltarmacil]

Well, there's something I hadn't noticed, Farael. Thank you for bringing that to our attention.

I think we may have our Nerwen-voter wolf. Rikae's frequent accusations of her weren't good to begin with, but pinning the blame on someone else is worse.

Also noteworthy is that both Rikae and mormegil have been pointing fingers at Lommy. Conspiracy, perhaps? Of course, it could just as easily be a coincidence.

[Volo]

Ok, more stuff - quickly:

1. I doubt that Valier was killed for looking like a Seer if morm isn't a Wolf, so in that case it would be just to frame him. Which leads us to nothing.


2. Rikae, why did you drop your style (voted self on Day1 in her first post, was it?) from the preveous game so totally and completely? Last game you seemed to regard Day1 as a waste of time and now you're so certain that the Wolves can be found by analysis already on Day1. This is just a questing, it has been bothering me.


3. Looking at yesterDay, I'm quite sure that Lommy has been Seered upon. I wouldn't concentrate on her too much toDay. Basicly because I don't suspect her a lot. Post #126 seems genuine at the very least, a Wolf wouldn't have phrased her words so, unless Lommy did a very smart bluff on purpose.


X:d with everything since my preveous post. Now I'm totally offline.

[Farael]

I have little to add about today's happenings. I still don't like Rikae (game-wise), Loomy is looking a little flip-floppy... as usual, so no problem there ... and Morm's reaction was expectable.

About Valier's death, I'd think that the wolves found an easy target that made a weird seer-like comment and figured that it was a win-win situation. If they nailed the Seer great, if not it'd toss the village in for a spin.

The odds of the Seer finding a wolf on Night 0 are 1/18 right? so I don't think the wolve's kill tonight makes Morm look bad at this stage of the game. Later on we may come back and see it in a different light.

[mormegil]

In post 175 I talk about the voting pattern and conclude that the most likely based on that are Menel and Volo. In 215 I voted Volo based on my gut because honestly I didn't have anything better and wasn't fully caught up nor would I be on that day. In post 316 I bring up how Green spoke about Lommy and Volo and it is analagous to how I view wolves treating each other. Post 352 I give a short quote from Volo talking about Menel. Both seem wolfish...I've spent more time on Menel and so the interaction again reminds me of wolfishness.

So honestly, I haven't had much to go on with Volo but only voted for him once and I stated unequivocally that it was my gut and no real hard evidence. Up to today I don't think I had much by way of hard evidence. I still don't think I've got a full lock on anybody so I try to keep my mind open. Time is a finite resource for me so I focus my intentions where I feel they are needed most. With so much 'Kill Morm' talk I've been doing a bit more defending than I like but I have honestly been trying to bring up points against multiple people...you included Kuru. While my points seem valid to me, they probably are rubbish so generally ignored.

What I find odd is how annoyed you keep getting at my talking about wolf tactics...should I instead talk about seer tactics? I believe we are in the business of killing wolves...it's not odd to get a crimincal pychologist to think like a criminal does...I think it's very helpful to spot those trends and more than anything that is what I am trying to do. Yet, you reprimand me for it...why?

Also Kuru, I find it odd that while I have tried to bring up many points against many people you harp on Volo and the lack of things I've done there. Why focus in on that when I've said, again what I consider decent, things about others who look suspicious but yet I don't have the time to do lengthy posts about everyone or stay up till 3AM basically chatting instead of searching for wolves (Kuru I'm not pointing to you on this one just a little annoyed at having to spend that finite time reading irrelevant blather)

Originally Posted by Kuru

Or do you have a very good reason why the last thing you'd want to do is say something that could definitively be pegged to you?

Come now Kuru, I think it's hard to believe that I have not been outspoken.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Morm, I do agree with you about Volo, but it seems a bit strange that you immediately call wolf on Kuru as soon as he begins speaking out against you. Care to explain that?

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Morm, I do agree with you about Volo, but it seems a bit strange that you immediately call wolf on Kuru as soon as he begins speaking out against you. Care to explain that?

I think I have made some comments on that Shastanis. But a few others are that he is always to be watched, always! He is good at fooling people...that does not make him guilty but shouldn't be overlooked. Second, and it's something I have tried to work on but fail on occasion, when people suspect me for what I think to be flawed reasons I tend to suspect them. It's not all the time but I do have that habit on occasion and it might hold true here. I don't remember it coorelating with when he began to suspect me but let's be honest, we knew he wouldn't be here on day 2 and on day 1 there wasn't much to go on with him. So is it odd that on day 3 I suspect him based on more information that I have?

[Aganzir]

I was beginning to feel better about morm after rereading his posts (based only on his own behaviour. I find nothing alarming in his posts), but obviously I was not as sharp-sighted as some people here. The novel posted by Lommy sounds possible... assuming that Lommy is innocent, of which I'm not too worried at the moment.

I'm going to be here until deadline, but I guess I'm voting sally, though in order to prevent a multi-lynch I can vote for someone else, too.

Voting this far

Farael - sally
Shasta - morm
Fea - sally (sally-2, morm-1)
Menel - morm (sally-2, morm-2)
Kath - Menel (sally-2, morm-2, Menel-1)
Mac - Volo (sally-2, morm-2, Menel-1, Volo-1)
morm - Menel (sally-2, morm-2, Menel-2, Volo-1)

8 votes still to come.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Also Kuru, I find it odd that while I have tried to bring up many points against many people you harp on Volo and the lack of things I've done there.

Well, it may just be a difference of tactics, but certainly worth mentioning... just like long analysis posts about everyone in the village, what is the point on mentioning lots suspects when only three can be wolves? Unless we do a double/triple lynching we won't kill them all at the same time anyway, and we won't do that 'cos too many things can go wrong (including the fact that our lynchees may very well be ordos). Therefore, why not make a credible accusation at one or two suspicious folks, rather than staying with the knee-jerk reflex of "I suspect whoever suspects me."

I've fallen for that trap before, as a newbie ordo I knew I was an ordo and therefore other people's suspicions always seemed furry... then I learned that people may suspect you and still be an ordo. Morm you've been around long enough that you know it too. Once or twice a game it's bound to happen that someone will suspect you for the wildest of reasons and you'll come out screaming WOOOLLLLFFF!!! But you've done it to everyone who's suspected you.

... I don't have the time to do lengthy posts about everyone or stay up till 3AM basically chatting instead of searching for wolves (Kuru I'm not pointing to you on this one just a little annoyed at having to spend that finite time reading irrelevant blather)

Out-of-game commentary... sorry to annoy you Morm, but when you stay up unti 3 AM reading up on muscle physiology, any "human contact" is welcome... and c'mon, there were what, four posts of "irrelevant blather"?

Having said that, let's not forget this is still a game among what I hope qualifies as friends, if not friendly people... a little chit-chat won't kill anyone, as long as it's not bogging the game down

[/out_of_game]

Edit: Crossed with Kuruharan and Brinniel

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I was here reading but as I said, I don't have energy to write anything new, just a conclusion: after all I have read, up to Volo's post now above me*, I still stand behind all I said in my post, so it's still valid. These are my last words for now and let me only say that morm's reply, though very, how to say that, intelligent-looking, made me think more that he indeed can be a part of the wolf-clan, prepared to create havoc centered on him with the result left to destiny, either he survives or heroically dies for the pack. It's, let's say, 60% now for me that it is like that (before, it was 50-50 for me whether he is or is not). That's the only change.

*Oh, and yes, I didn't read Farael as it seems to open a whole new topic (also from a totally "new" person), I will do so tomorrow.

Really leaving. Bye.

EDIT: okay, x-ed with Farael. What he says more or less accords to what I think - as you can read above in my post. I like this post of him. Will read the long one later. REALLY leaving. Bye.

[Brinniel]

Is it possible that the wolves thought Valier to be the seer without morm being a wolf? After all, she did give seer hints (particularly the "I am sure my feelings eventually will lead us to at least one of our furry friends" sentence) and there's a good chance she had not dreamt of morm, but someone who turned out innocent. If the wolves thought Valier was the seer, she would be a perfect pick...framing morm would be a bonus.

And then there's the discussion of Rikae being furry, which I think is a possibility. Her comments towards Lommy are very accusing and threatening (well, so are morm's but his are more defensive). She could easily be setting up a second lynch candidate here, seeing she's already getting some support. If morm is lynched and turns out innocent, Lommy must be guilty, right? Not necessarily. But that might be what the wolves want us to think. I disagree with what Lommy says; I don't think Valier's death should be the main reason to suspect morm. But I'm not sure her weird analysis makes her wolvish- in fact, what she says is almost too attention grabbing and suspicious looking to belong to that of someone furry.

P.S. I second Green's question. What do you mean by "sporty," Volo? That word can hold a lot of different meanings, I think.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Post 140. My post.

The one where I had a list of each of Valier's posts.

I accidentally hit 'edit' instead of quote when I went to post my opinions.

And then when I finished I hit save.

So I just deleted that post by accident, replacing it with

Originally Posted by me

Why I think Val was killed (based on her posts)
Valier's own words (chronologically):

Lynch the loud.

Day one is irksome, given lack of useable evidence.

She's innocent.

Morm is sketching her out by being quiet--
--isn't acting like himself--
--without excusing the change--
"I tend to believe that he has some hair up his sleeve."

She's innocent.

Morm's sketching her out--
--but she doesn't have evidence, just a feeling--
--she might not be right, but she'd rather find out through lynching morm--

Don't kill her, her feelings are sure to find at least one wolf.

She only has her instincts as 'proof.'

"Tomorrow is another day and if I survive till then it will be all the brighter"

And then she votes for morm.

---

Okay.

So I think the wolves killed her to frame morm, like I already said.

But I also think they probably killed her because of how plainly she was expressing her confidence in her gut reactions. Because we all get whims, you know? And we'd like to think we're right. But she said outright that she was sure she was going to discover a wolf.

And whether or not she did discover a wolf, that statement ("I AM going to find you" instead of "so I think I might be right") would be an eye-catcher.

So pretty much I agree with Legate saying

Quote:
the wolves said "Look, probably a Seer" (and even if she isn't, why not to try).
and

Quote:
Other possibility, likewise probable - morm is not a wolf, but the wolves noticed an opportunity to pass the guilt on someone else. Why not? Solving two problems at once.
So yeah. I think Valier died not because she'd nailed a wolf but because the wolves had a two-birds-with-one-stone philosophy.

At least that's what makes the most sense to me.

I suck.

[satansaloser2005]

I know how you feel Fea. I did that last game and instead of adding a sentence to my post, I erased the original content. I felt so stupid.

And again just now when I went to hit submit and instead refreshed, deleting my entire post. So this is the short and sweet version of my post.

Brinn and Fea, I concur. I think the wolves may have interpreted Valier's post as a hint at her being the seer, and thus decided to kill her in hopes of getting the seer. Fortunately it didn't work, but I can easily see how they could come to that conclusion.

Secondly I think that there are three possible answers to how Morm fits into last night's kill:
A: Morm is a wolf. The wolves took Valier to be the seer and thought perhaps she dreamed of Morm. Thus they needed to shut her up. This could be a double bluff by the wolves, looking like they're framing Morm but actually not, which also constitutes a risk on their part that Morm will be found out and killed.
B: Morm is not a wolf. The wolves took Valier to be the seer and wanted to shut her up before she dreamed of any of them. This is, as has been discussed by Lommy and others, a frame job on Morm by the actual werewolves.
C: Morm's wolfishness is irrelevant. The wolves picked Valier completely randomly.



I don't know which option it is though, that's the tough part. :S

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Is it possible that the wolves thought Valier to be the seer without morm being a wolf? After all, she did give seer hints (particularly the "I am sure my feelings eventually will lead us to at least one of our furry friends" sentence) and there's a good chance she had not dreamt of morm, but someone who turned out innocent. If the wolves thought Valier was the seer, she would be a perfect pick...framing morm would be a bonus.

I think it's absolutely possible. I find it very odd indeed that people have concocted this whole story of Morm-framing or of Valier seeming to have been "on to" something, when, had she been a seer, she would only have known one role (if she would have known that -- do seers get night 1 dreams in this game?)

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Volo

I doubt that Valier was killed for looking like a Seer if morm isn't a Wolf, so in that case it would be just to frame him. Which leads us to nothing.

Volo, could you explain that point? Might be due to my being very very tired, but I don't quite grasp it. And also, what do you mean by "sporty" in that other post of yours? Some advanced werewolf-slang, is it? If so, well I don't get it

Like I said, I'm quite tired now and not thinking very clearly, so I think I'm off to bed.
Good night everyone, I'll come checking as soon as I wake up

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Little Green

Like I said, I'm quite tired now and not thinking very clearly, so I think I'm off to bed.
Good night everyone, I'll come checking as soon as I wake up

Yes, do go away and leave the computer to me... mwahahahaa... And when you come back tomorrow, please explain that loud-thing. I'd be interested to hear your answer.

Farael has a very good point against Rikae. After she had talked about my and Nerwen's "strife" and quite clearly argued against me, she suddenly voted Nerwen. I was quite surprised as I had thought she'd vote me. Now that you brought that weird thing up again, I really think I should have a better look at Rikae for there's certainly something odd about her.

All in all, Farael seems less insane than normal , actually, he's making very much sense, and I don't know if it should make me feel worried or comfortable, but I'm inclined to think him innocent.

Originally Posted by Menel

Also noteworthy is that both Rikae and mormegil have been pointing fingers at Lommy. Conspiracy, perhaps? Of course, it could just as easily be a coincidence.

The idea of a conspiracy sounds a bit far-fetched, but on the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised if both of them turned out to be wolves. I need to think more about this...

Originally Posted by Farael

The odds of the Seer finding a wolf on Night 0 are 1/18 right? so I don't think the wolve's kill tonight makes Morm look bad at this stage of the game. Later on we may come back and see it in a different light.

Now that is a bit faulty matemathics. For surely we don't have just one wolf? So it's 4/18 = 2/9 chance.

edit: xed with Brinn and Fea

[Rikae]

Yes, Mr. Twofeet, I absolutely started the accusations against Nerwen, and yes indeed, I think that the way Lommy followed those suspicions looked wolfish. First suspicions with little to go on are frequently more revealing by the reactions of others than in themselves (Roa-hunter and my grandmother, a ranger, once used that tactic to catch a wolf.) If there had been retractable votes, I might have even switched votes to Lommy late in the day -- then again, maybe not, as I'm afraid I'm a bit biased toward people I've played many games with before (gasp!)
I simply have the feeling that she jumped on a possible bandwagon too quickly, and then, when Nerwen was the top candidate, washed her paws of the matter with all that "I have a bad feeling..." business.

Volo, you seem to have completely misinterpreted my suicide in the last game. It meant the opposite of what you think it did.

Well, my top suspect is Lommy, and that's that. Farael is right - we should not suspect him, because he always behaves this way. Thank you for pointing that out to us, Farael.

Oh, I would also like to say this: I'm no longer so sure about Macalaure.

[Meneltarmacil]

Please elaborate, Rikae. What do you find suspicious about Macalaure?

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Please elaborate, Rikae. What do you find suspicious about Macalaure?

Well, this might not be entirely fair, but last time he was a wolf (which I found out after I was dead), I told him that the reason he tends to be caught when he's a baddie is that he is too tentative then, whereas innocent Mac is usually very decisive with his suspicions. Yesterday he seemed almost gloating over my calling him innocent, and then he went after Volo in a way that seems almost like a caricature of innocent-Mac.

However, that only raises doubts in my mind, not actual suspicion at this point.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Hmm. I've read everything, and not only has there been a lot of discussion on whether or not mormegil is a wolf based on the death of Valier, mormegil's post (posts? I think I only saw one.) seems... off, to me. Desperate, maybe, although I could also read it as a frustrated ordo.

Like I say, I've read everything, and no one particularly sticks out in my mind but Volo. I think I'll go back and look at his posts in general.