WW XXXX - The scouring of the Shire, vol.2

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Oh, seems that I have arrived just at the right time: something is stirring up. If I am to speak to the matter, I didn't see anything strange on Nerwen's post(s) and I'd say Rikae is making more of it than it seems. On the other hand, I don't necessarily think this must be a bad omen for Rikae: she has always been strange (sorry, Rik ) and this quite fits her.
So, what quite puzzles me is that there is hardly anything that would say to me "Wolf" at least vaguely. Which is a bad omen. I know the game just started, but I am somewhat satisfied when I have at least certain outline of what's going on, and often I have that even on Day 1. This time, nothing much.
And The Might, you should not rely on what other people post as much, even though it flatters me, I may always be a wolf. Try to use your thoughts independantly.
That is, if you are not a wolf yourself. You could be.

Anyway, let's add some more rant when I'm already at it. Menel does not seem suspicious to me, whatever was said about him. Brinniel seems very genuine to me (though I know how I was mistaken not as long time ago), but her post seems sensible, not forced, thoughtful. A Little Green's post seems very, let's say, genuinely structured, and if we have a wolf in here after all, then it's a wolf who tries to behave "normally". Fea, hope you will come back with some little more substance, please (same could be said about some others). Kuru seems strange, though I can't say how exactly. Maybe with his "ambivalent" answer to Brinniel.

I picked just some examples that left a trace in my mind. There are other ideas, but they need yet to "blossom".

EDIT: x-ed with Lommy. Few words on that coming, probably...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Now Lommy's post seems the most calming I have seen here, also with the most substance. While I appreciate Rikae's activity, her list of people I don't really consider to be much helpful for us. Or: not at the moment. When we lynch a wolf, or when we lynch Rikae and learn that she was a wolf, then these views of other people can be really helpful. But this far, Lommy's post seems nice, and worth considering, it seems to give hope, though of course she might be a wolf and in that case it's a dead end track. The other post I nominate as good one, as I said, is Brinniel's. How to explain the contradictions between them is left to the good old "different villagers' personalities" thing. In fact, I like that - reminds me of "polemic inside the canon", which is quite reassuring. "Where there is not strife, there is only stagnation" (that's not a good life motto, but it works in WW very well, I believe).

So you see, this does not make too much of a conclusion, but at least something, I hope. Now I also looked back at Valier's post and let me say only that she seems a little getting close to the contradicting - herself edge. I must say I will keep an eye out and hopefully she appears yet (from what she says it seems she will).

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Lommy

I think the quiet wolf - loud wolf ratio is about the same as the quiet villager - loud villager ratio. Also, I think that loud people make loud wolves and quiet people make quiet wolves, and if Nogrod claims to have chosen the roles at random, we hardly can divide people into "quiet people" and "loud people" and say that this and this percent of these are wolvish or something like that.

If fully agree with you on this. I'm just saying there tends to be one wolf among the silent, but it does not necessarily mean it's always this way. I think it's quite silly to vote for someone just because they are loud or quiet...we should be basing our votes on the content within their posts, not by how much they are posting. One-liners or not, we should be seeing at least one post and vote from everyone. And if not, they will eventually be modfired.

Anyways, some first impressions:

The Might's behaviour, starting with the "let's lynch a quiet person" attitude does make me a bit uneasy. Yet, I'm thinking this is more likely to be newbie behaviour than suspicious.

Rikae was the first to make a truly help and analysing post. I agree with most of what she says, so I see no reason to suspect her at this point. Lommy also seems to be sincere in her first post. I get an innocentish vibe from her...let's just hope I'm not being completely deceived here.

Nerwen is a bit defensive...but then again, she was also in the last game and turned out innocent...

I agree that Valier's two posts seem rather contradictory, but I'm not sure that's enough to form an actual suspicion. But I will be watching her closely.

I don't find anything strange about Menel (aside from his name...Lupo Furryface ). And I don't intend to vote for him toDay simply because I feel bad for the poor guy.

Others I have not mentioned, I don't currently have enough to form an opinion on yet. I do not actually have any suspicions at this point of time, but hopefully that'll change by the time I wake up tomorrow.

[Thinlómien]

I really can't get what's so suspicious about Valier. I think she seems quite normal. Besides I'd be sad to lose her early if she hasn't lost her incredible hunches and also because she hasn't played for a while. Actually, I might say a few words on that topic. Unless she, Kuru, Fea, Farael or morm do something really suspicious or there has to be made a choice between some of them and someone who seems more innocent, I'm reluctant to lynch them today. I won't, of course, be as merciful later, but I'd be very sad to see one of them go early since I haven't played with them for a long time. (Now that I think of it, have I ever played with Kuru actually? I'm not sure, probably not.) I have a bit similar attitude towards A Little Green, since this is her first game.

Nerwen seems slightly suspicious to me: there's something in her tone that I don't like, something that tickles my radar. This:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Why tell us this? The rest of us can hardly take it into account.

almost made it beep. I mean, that's a very odd comment. If we liked to do so, we could take Rikae's word for it. But more importantly, why should Rikae refrain from saying something she feels? Just because we can't consider it a serious point for Mac's innocence? Surely we get more idea where Rikae and her opinions stand, so it is valuable information to us others? And I really think people shouldn't overlook gut-feelings, they're right surprisingly often (which does not, of course, mean always ). Lastly, by saying that Rikae states an opinion and I don't think you necessarily have to have a good reasoning-based case just to think someone's innocentish or suspicious.

Though, I'm not sure if the feel I get from Nerwen's latest post indicates she might be guilty or that I've picked up the old bad habit of suspecting people I disagree with again... Neverthelesss, I'm keeping an eye on her.

EDIT: xed with Brinniel

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I mean, that's a very odd comment. If we liked to do so, we could take Rikae's word for it. But more importantly, why should Rikae refrain from saying something she feels? Just because we can't consider it a serious point for Mac's innocence? Surely we get more idea where Rikae and her opinions stand, so it is valuable information to us others?

I mentioned it because Rikae herself has been critical of comments that she sees as lacking substance. That one struck me as being rather pointless, that's all. She also seems to be very arbitrary about how she applies her "empty post = suspicious" rule.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I mentioned it because Rikae herself has been critical of comments that she sees as lacking substance. That one struck me as being rather pointless, that's all. She also seems to be very arbitrary about how she applies her "empty post = suspicious" rule.

I don't see especially that point as strange either. I can see where you are coming from, but I'd say whatever anyone says, be it only his own opinion, is worth something - at least to us others. We can later use that for analysis. Or eventually say "Rikae and Mac were wolves and they needed an easy reason why not to supect each other". Otherwise, I did not notice the "rule" you mention to be as apparent. I personally thought about that as well, but sally does that (already behaved like that the game before) and f.ex. Kath appears only to say she will be back later - now what kind of playing is that, really? - but one has to understand that. Also, this is the first day (to quote the refrain once more) and there was not much to speak of if they didn't have that much time.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I don't see especially that point as strange either. I can see where you are coming from, but I'd say whatever anyone says, be it only his own opinion, is worth something - at least to us others. We can later use that for analysis.

Point taken. I guess I was being over-critical.

For the rest of it, though... well, I do think some of her comments show a bit of a double-standard. For instance, she finds my first post to be somewhat suspicious because all I did was remind everyone to consider the timezone issue before they start lynching people for being too quiet. In her view, there's not enough substance there– and yet she has no problem with people who have done nothing at all but joke.

Understand that I'm criticizing her arguments on grounds of inconsistency, not making an accusation.

EDIT: X'd with Volo and A Little Green.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Nerwen, apology accepted, but why do you seem now suddenly all too self-critical? Or, self-defensive? Don't overdo it, or I may start to suspect you!

Note to Volo's post - for Fea - see? Now this is what I meant - if you post something that has substance, people may start to react to you. Not that it always is a good thing, but that's for another debate

Originally Posted by Lilla Greenhand

If Valier is a wolf, that would be a perfect guise. If, as a wolf, she finds nothing too "suspicious" about anyone, she can just rely on voting for a quiet person.
Otherwise I don't find Valier exceptionally wolf-ish. Besides, I have the impression that she is an experienced player. If so, she would probably not post a phrase like that as a wolf.

*Notes down: if she and Valier are the wolves, this would be very good move. Keep in mind for further.*

[Aganzir]

Wonderful to see there's been this much discussion and not only Day 1 banter.

I can understand why especially those for whom the previous game was their first want to lynch quiet ones, but it always makes my alarm ring when a relatively vocal player says that there probably are wolves hiding among the quiet. If the roles were given randomly, I think that's not a valid argument.

We had a discussion about lynching the quiet ones with Lommy some weeks ago, and I agree with her about it being possible to catch a quiet wolf by seeing how other wolves (and everybody else) treat them. With four wolves in the village, I dare say it's not that difficult to get one by pure luck.

But everyone has their own style to play, and it's unfair to always lynch the quiet ones "just to make it sure". And really, what does it matter whether one loses to a quiet or a vocal player? It's so easy to say "I lost because the one who won played unfairly, ie. was so silent I didn't realise he was a wolf". Maybe one should pay extra attention to the quiet ones if he thinks it would be more embarrassing to lose to one.
Sorry if I sound aggressive, I certainly don't mean to. I just think one shouldn't blame the wolf and his way of playing if one doesn't manage to catch him.

I haven't had time to form opinions about everybody, but here are some thoughts.

Volo: There was very little to go on in his first posts, but the last one (#39) strikes me as quite genuine.

Brinniel: I found her first post somehow empty. The second post makes me feel much better though.

Nerwen: A good and reasonable player, even with only one game behind her. I think Rikae had a good point about her saying little, but then again, it's just Day 1. The thing that makes me a little uncertain is how she started behaving after Rikae pointed out something slightly suspicious in her posts. It looks like she tries to get Rikae use her energy in defending & explaining herself, rather than going on suspecting Nerwen. See post #31.

Rikae: I definitely agree with her that even Day 1 can be spent usefully, and mostly agree about everything else she said. She's been quite sensible, and at the moment I don't feel like lynching her.

A Little Greenie: Even though she's a newbie, don't underestimate her. I've played mafia with her several times, and every time she's guilty she fools me completely. I'm definitely going to watch you extra-carefully this time.

Lommy: I guess I'm able (at least I should be, given how long we've known each other) to read her quite well, and this far there's been nothing that should make me feel she's a wolf.

Legate and Menel both look quite genuine.

I somewhat disagree with Feanor on what she said about Day 1. The wolves always have something to hide: that they've received a pm that says they're wolves. They know they're guilty even before they've actually killed anyone, and that can sometimes be seen in their behaviour.

I have not yet a clear opinion about the others.

edit: xed since Greenie

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I really can't get what's so suspicious about Valier. I think she seems quite normal. Besides I'd be sad to lose her early if she hasn't lost her incredible hunches and also because she hasn't played for a while. Actually, I might say a few words on that topic. Unless she, Kuru, Fea, Farael or morm do something really suspicious or there has to be made a choice between some of them and someone who seems more innocent, I'm reluctant to lynch them today. I won't, of course, be as merciful later, but I'd be very sad to see one of them go early since I haven't played with them for a long time. (Now that I think of it, have I ever played with Kuru actually? I'm not sure, probably not.) I have a bit similar attitude towards A Little Green, since this is her first game.

This thought here is not sound logic and will amount to trouble. I've only read to hear...too many european posters so a lot to catch up on in the morning. Anyway, it's good practice to lynch Fea on Day 1 as she generally only causes problems the later it goes. But what you said is interesting when compared to what you said previous to this.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Another thing I learned was that I really should drop the loud & famous people from a certain pedestal I've lifted them to. I still think it's challenging & nice to play with them and it is sad to lose them early and that one should be careful about lynching them because they're great assets to the village, BUT I think my past attitude of even somewhat overlooking their suspicious behaviour based on those things I just mentioned is just a bit ridiculous. I mean, surely you shouldn't get away with anything just because you're known to be a good and helpful player?

Being nice doesn't save the village. It appears you contradict yourself slightly in your thought process here.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Anyway, it's good practice to lynch Fea on Day 1 as she generally only causes problems the later it goes.

I could so easily say the same about you, morm. I was a wolf with you in the past. We were really good wolves. Ergo, I know you're a really good wolf who doesn't come off as wolf-like. My logic is usually this: Say it's the last day and it's me, mormegil, and some other random player. Neither seems any more or less innocent than the other. I know I'm innocent. I KNOW I'm not going to have any idea who to vote for. So my 'strategy,' if you want to call it that, is, when in doubt, to lynch somebody who I know will cause me doubt later. If I have a definite suspicion, I vote for the person I think is guilty. But if I don't know who to vote for, instead of lynching at random, I vote for somebody I know is going to complicate my decision-making later on. Does that make sense? Should I try to rephrase it?

Originally Posted by Rikae

I don't agree with Fea, but her pessimism seems genuine.

I'm not sure whether or not I should take this as a compliment.

Originally Posted by The Might

Hmmm...I'm curious to see what will happen, so I'll go ahead and do it:

++ The Might

for being so out of the ordinary.

What!?!??!

Okay, my immediate thoughts about this are:

I remember, I think, voting for myself when I was a wolf. Bluffing, as it were. Being suicidal as a way to throw people off. "No wolf would sacrifice herself!" If my memory is false, I know a true memory was me saying "I'm a wolf. Lynch me." and being truthful in that statement.

In any case, it was a bluff tactic.

Next thought: Voting for yourself is a ballsy thing to do in terms of personal education and education for the group.

What happens is, whether or not you live, the village is handed the perfect setup to study the bandwagon approach. It's REALLY easy for any wolf (or any innocent) to say "He's obviously a bluffing wolf and even if he's not, his insanity is dangerous to the village!" and start the voting.

From there, everybody can see who says and does what. Voting for yourself/declaring yourself as something is an excellent way (I've used it in the past) of gaging what's going on.

My hat's off to you, The Might, for taking initiative and giving the village some controversy to work with.

Here's how I'm going to react to The Might's suicide vote:

I'm going to ask people to make public what they think about it. Tell us how you feel about such a thing occurring. What's your opinion of day one suicide votes?

I happen to think he's innocent and going for the "Let's see whether or not people take advantage so we can study it later" approach. Only I'm stupid enough to do something like actually be guilty and admit it day one. I think.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I have to disappoint you, Fea. TM's self-vote is 99% inspired by behaviour he saw at Rikae in the last (his first) game. She voted herself on Day 1 and got subsequently lynched, and revealed innocent.

Of course, this raises questions like - is he innocent? Or, is he a wolf hoping people to remember that the last person they lynched like that was innocent, thus, they won't lynch him? Personally, I would expect the former from him. So, I'd think that is an innocentish behaviour for him.

EDIT: x-ed with Lommy

[Brinniel]

Agh...you beat me to the punch, Legate. I was about to say the same exact thing.

It's always possible for a wolf to make a self-vote, but it's very risky. I kind of doubt a Were-Might would take such risks, especially since he is not exactly safe. But then again, it could be a desperate attempt to divert attention from him, reminding people of last game and not to make the same mistake. Anything is possible.

Well, I certainly don't want to make the same mistake that was made last game if he does turn out innocent. Right now, it's a toss-up to me whether Might is a wolf. I don't want to put him out of the picture, but at the same time I don't want to vote for him toDay. If he's still looking odd toMorrow, I will certainly look more closely at him.

Btw, I have to vote in a couple of minutes...

EDIT: X-ed with three people

[satansaloser2005]

Vote summary, mostly so I don't have to scroll through to find them all.


Might: 2
Lommy: 1
Morm: 1
Nerwen: 1



For some reason I bumped into Morm this morning and I thought he felt a little fuzzy. Call it a hunch, but for now that'll have to do, being day one and all. I certainly don't see Might as a furry fiend and thus I'm voting, in a way, to save him. Not really, but I'd rather take my chances among the other three votees (Lommy, Morm, and Nerwen, who I will discuss in greater detail later if I get the opportunity) and hope to find a werewolf in their midst than allow someone to perish whom I sincerely believe to be innocent. If nothing else, if Might does perish I will be sure it was not by my hand. And so my vote must go towards....


++Morm



By the way, great posts today! Hopefully I can check in before deadline. Hopefully.... *scampers off to class*

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Fea, hope you will come back with some little more substance, please (same could be said about some others).

Good morning.

^not substance^

I have classes from 9:10 until 12:30, so you won't see me during my morning.

^not substance^

But it's Friday, which means that you will see me after I grab lunch! How yay is that?

^still not^

Okay, time to admit: this post isn't going to have substance.

Nor will any subsequent posts today, probably.

Though I might redeem myself (insomuch as I can) as follows:

The reason my Day One posts won't have substance is because I (and I always have) subscribe to the belief that you can't learn anything from Day One until AFTER Day One.

You won't find me seriously probing posts until Day Two. After the wolves make a legitimate kill. Once there's something to go on.

There is no way to find objective evidence for somebody else's guilt in what is basically a suicide. Wolves have nothing to do with the mod's death, therefore until Day Two, they have nothing to hide. Which means that unless they're really stupid, they're not going to give us anything to go on. First day comments can often lead to accurate assumptions, but not until later. As in, stuff we say on Day One usually makes a lot more sense in retrospect.

So yeah. Today I have classes until lunch time. Since they'll be boring, I'll spend them drawing and trying to come with a decision of who is the best choice to lynch without evidence.

My choice, so you can be prepared, will probably be of a villager who has historically concerned me. Whether or not the person is guilty makes no real difference to me. I'll be voting based on my confidence in my own ability to tell now or later on whether or not they're guilty.

Shower. Breakfast. Classes. See you before Day ends.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Fea: Good! That was exactly what I wanted to hear from you. Thank you. You see, I know there is no concrete evidence on Day 1, but at least you now let us get an image of how you think. A person who appears and says "Hello" does not say anything about herself, and a person who says "I had bread for breakfast, then a cup of tea, then I used a bus to get to work, then I was there two hours, then I returned but not by bus but my friend's car whom I met and we were talking about Bill Hailey all the way" does say many things about herself, but not things that are valid for WW.

Volo: I don't exactly know what you would imagine under me posting "my thoughts a little bit clearer". I said everything I wanted and these were my opinions. I don't know what you mean by "backing up other players", but I would consider saying "I agree with this one. I agree with that one." a serious problem - but that's obviously not what I was doing. I said what I wanted and see no problem with it. If you do, please explain more concretely what would you like to see from me.

EDIT: x-ed since Little Green's post.

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Volo: I don't exactly know what you would imagine under me posting "my thoughts a little bit clearer". I said everything I wanted and these were my opinions. I don't know what you mean by "backing up other players", but I would consider saying "I agree with this one. I agree with that one." a serious problem - but that's obviously not what I was doing. I said what I wanted and see no problem with it. If you do, please explain more concretely what would you like to see from me.

I started my thoughts about you a bit too harshly - saying that I suspect you more than others was a bit unfair. It just bothered me that you had no clear thoghts on anybody, everybody you mentioned going both ways (flip-flopping?). But like Fea said - and I agree with her about this - there are no hard facts to base your thoughts on. I forgot that provoking you and your guts doesn't work...

Then again, in your last post you say it again - "Good! That was exactly what I wanted to hear from you. Thank you.", well what do you think of it if it's good enough to think about?


EDIT: Xd with Legate.

[Kath]

Here I am again, as I promised. The earlier post seemed to be giving people trouble. I didn't have time to post anything substantial but I wanted to make sure I got notifications from the thread so I could keep up a bit easier so I just posted those few words.

Couple of things have grabbed my attention so far. Nerwen and Rikae's little argument seems to be a bit central. Nerwen, I can't see that there's anything wrong with Rikae offering her opinion on Mac. Ok, so it's based on outside knowledge but then technically any impressions we carry over from past games are outside knowledge as well. For example, the one person I can generally guess the role of is Mith, simply because I know her style quite well, and others are aware of that and sometimes (when they're not about to lynch me ) take that into account. I for one don't think you should be shy about offering any thoughts that might help us.

Still, I think that argument has pretty much been settled now which is good. Though it has left me with some lingering suspicion of Nerwen, who seems a little jumpy.

I'm feeling pretty ok with Rikae though, and with Lommy, who seems to be the loudmouth of the village so far, except for one comment:

Everybody knows newbies agree with and are affected by charismatic and intelligent more experienced players.

I'm not sure this can really be used as an excuse for suspicious behaviour from a newbie. Just look at the last game with Nerwen especially having her own thoughts and not really being affected by the opinions of older players (as far as I could see anyway). I'm not saying A Little Green - hmm, just Green maybe as a shortening? - is suspicious, I can't because I haven't looked at her, but maybe she is quite aware that she can get away with hiding behind her newbie status. That I think though is a thought for Days to come, I don't want to go lynching newbies on the first Day.

Just got to say as well, little suspicious that morm's only posted the once. Phew, and there's the old rivalry dealt with. To be clear those who don't get this, I am kidding.

Are we still waiting on people to post? Ooh yes we are, Farael. I thought it seemed a little quiet!

Right, I'm off again for a little while. Should be back before too long.

EDIT: Cross posted with Mac.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Kath

Nerwen, I can't see that there's anything wrong with Rikae offering her opinion on Mac.

You're right, Kath, and you'll notice I've taken it back already. I was starting to get suspicious of Rikae anyway at that point because of her oddly contradictory arguments, and the way she seemed to be twisting my words, but I've changed my mind about her (see #52).

Besides, she got lynched the first Day last game!

[Kuruharan]

Besides, she got lynched the first Day last game!

What's that got to do with anything?

If you think she's a wolf you should vote for her regardless of other considerations.

[The Might]

lol, I again seem to have managed to get all against me thinking I'm the wolf...and this is the second time in the row.
Actually I said that because I want to avoid what I needed to do last time, vote for someone without any proof whatsoever.
Just as Feanor already said her choice will be a member she is concerned with I also wanted to explain who I'll take on the first day.

[Kuruharan]

Kuru knows more about WWing than Sandyman does of boating.
Rikae

Oh, thank y…wait…what?

At the moment I’m inclined to be suspicious of people who are talking about making decisions based upon arbitrary reasons rather than on what is actually happening in the game.

This is causing me to focus on The Might due to his desire to lynch people based on whether they are loud or quiet and…

Unfortunately…that’s all that I’ve got to think about right now…

More unfortunately, I’m suspicious of my suspicion because it seems too easy.

[Thinlómien]

Nerwen, since you seem to be flip-flopping on that matter, do you suspect Rikae or not?

Nerwen's or Brinn's latter posts have given me no reason to lessen my suspicion of them. They and Greenie (I like that one for a nickname) are my main suspects ie the only people who seem even somewhat suspicious.

Aganzir (seems to be reasonable and calm and arguments in an innocent way, though I can't really elaborate on that in a comprehensible manner) , Volo (makes generally the most sense) and Mac (his tone seems far more relaxed than when he's a wolf, besides his post made me laugh ) seem innocent to me and Legate and Valier too (both are just gut-feelings and based on their normal-seeming behaviour), but to a lesser extent. Of the rest I really can't conclude much.

The Might then... now his latest post was definitely a bit odd and even slightly suspicious, but suspicious in an innocent way, if you know what I mean...

EDIT: xed with Kuru twice and Nerwen once

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Nerwen, since you seem to be flip-flopping on that matter, do you suspect Rikae or not?

Look, I'm really not sure. I've said why.

Now I want to say this: the conversation of the last few hours is making me very uneasy. I feel that we're all being directed towards seeing certain types of behaviour as suspicious, when they're not really.

I'm not sure where this is coming from, but the intent is pretty clear: the wolves are going to be able to lynch an innocent without leaving a trace. "But X said Y, and we established that Y is what a wolf would say! It was a tragic mistake!"

I urge everyone to re-read all the posts as objectively as they can. Ignore what other people (me included) tell you is suspicious– make up your own mind, because someone is trying to make it up for you.