Tol-In-Gaurhoth XXXVIII - E.T.T.T.S.O.W.I.

[Volo]

And now I Xd with Lommy.


Possible scenarios:

Lommy dies and is innocent:
3/5 evil people. We lose.
3/4 evil people. (Xyzzy dies and is innocent.) We lose.
3/6 evil people. (Bodyguard saves.) We probably lose, unless we act quickly and very very smartly.
Calculate the other possibilities yourself (i.e. Xyzzy is evil or something).

Lommy dies and is the villain:
2/5 evil people. (If nothing special happens with the henchman kills.) We might win.
2/4 evil people. (If henchmen get two kills.) We lose.
2/6 evil people. (If henchmen don't get to kill over the lose of their boss.) We don't lose, yet as next Night they'll get two kills: Evil situation: 2/3 or 1/3.
Calculate the other possibilites yourself (i.e. Xyzzy also dies or Bodyguard saves.)

Lommy dies and is a henchgirl:
2/5 evil people. We have good chances of winning.
Calculate Xyzzy and Bodyguard.


Did I make mistakes?



EDIT: Xd with Nogrod.


EDITEDIT: evil people means how many want to vote against the village.