Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Boromir88]

The day began not at all the way the town expected. They were supposed to be here to discuss and choose a new leader, but were now expected to vote and kill one of their own.

"I'll make it easy today" said one of them and Nilp went to the gallows and put the rope around his own neck.

"Stop that. You're not sacrificing yourself." said some of them.

"Who are we to stop what he wants?" said some others.

As the day wore on, some suggested trying reason, some were in favor of abstaining and sharing s'mores. But for most of the day no one stopped Nilp from keeping the rope around his neck...until the very last minute.

Enough people started yelling at Nilp to get his head out of there, and despite some resistance, he stepped away.

Some started pushing Form up to the front, then another group started shouting for Huey. Nilp thought he heard his name again and ran up to try to grab the rope again, but he was stopped. It was finally decided Huey, who despite a frantic final minutes seemed to accept his fate.

The town waited around for a several minutes to see if Huey would change into a new form. He did not. The villagers hung their heads and returned home.


The Dead

Boro (Town Recorder) - Night 1
Huinesoron (Villager) - Day 1

The Living

A Little Green
Blind Guardian
Brinniel
Formendacil
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Loslote
Macalaure
Nogrod
Nilpaurion Felagund
Pitchwife
Rikae
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin
Thinlomien

----

It is Night 2. Silence in the town.

Wolves talk and send kill.

Seer send dream.

Ranger guard.

Beast Hunter set your trap.

[Boromir88]

The wolf-pack was in high spirits after getting the innocent Huey lynched, but they really wanted to top off the night with a successful kill. The pack debated through most of the night about who their victim would be. There was even talk of benefits moving to a vegetarian diet, being close to Greenwood the Great! But alas it was not so tonight and their victim was chosen.

They approached the residence and found their target lying fast asleep on her bed, as pure and innocent as the wind-driven snow. Better yet, it appeared she was completely defenseless and the pack would not go hungry tonight.

"She appears to be having such sweet dreams" said one of the werewolves. "Do you think we should wake her?"

Another werewolf tapped her on the shoulder "Wakey, wakey, candied snow flowers and Lottie-pops!"

Loslote awoke, startled seeing 4 snarling figures looming over her. She did not attempt to run however, seemingly knowing what was about to happen. "I am not one of the people that you seek. Dine well. Keep my bones to pick out bits stuck in your teeth! Hate to have one of you discovered for being messy eaters." she giggled sarcastically.

When the village awoke the next day, they knew there was one less of them and discovered Lottie was no longer with them. And they wept for their loss.

The Dead

Boro (Town Recorder) - Night 1
Huinesoron (Villager) - Day 1
Loslote (Villager) - killed by pack Night 2

The Living

A Little Green
Blind Guardian
Brinniel
Formendacil
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Loslote
Macalaure
Nogrod
Nilpaurion Felagund
Pitchwife
Rikae
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin
Thinlomien

-----

It is Day 2. Werewolves cease chatter.

Townspeople, bring me a lynch in 24 hours. The 2 villagers in the dead thread will have to both vote for one of you for there to be a Medium. If one of you is chosen as the Medium today, it will be revealed in the end of day narration.

[Kath]

Oh dear. Sorry Hui! I think I should have gone with voting Blind Guardian given it was the jump onto the vote that I found suspicious, but when I voted yesterDay it didn't look like there was time for more names to be added to the pile.

And Lottie is an interesting kill. She didn't really stand out to me yesterDay so it will be interesting to look at her posts and see what the wolves might have thought they spotted.

[Blind Guardian]

I typed this at the end of yesterDay. Will fix formatting later.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Also,*BG*hopping on the*Formy*train with reasoning borrowed wholesale? *ping*

Originally Posted by Brinniel

For her opportunistic vote.

I've been keeping a spreadsheet with all my thoughts about ya'll in it. The first person that I ever suspected was Form, right from his first post. I just didn't say anything. Then at the last minute (while on a dying cell phone) I realized that was a bad idea. Oh well.
I probably shouldn't even say thing because one of my last games (years and years ago) I go lynched solely on my explanation of why I voted as I did.

I sorta suspected Huey yesterDay but I also agree with his vote for Formy. And I stand by my vote. I don’t know if it's a good call yet or not. Time will tell. Something feels wrong about Formy's posts and I am going with my gut feeling.

Originally Posted by Kath

Having just skimmed through, the biggest thing worrying me here is the way Blind Guardian just jumped on Hui's vote. It felt very like a newbie wolf following the footsteps of a more experienced packmate.

I know I am Innocent but now I can say with certainty that Huey and I aren't chatting Wolves, cause it's confirmed that HE'S not a Wolf

Also I'm not a newbie Wolf. I've played as a Wolf before and I remember it VERY well because it ended up VERY badly for me. Everyone voted for me (over something really stupid and not at all a slipup) and I ended up crying in my room for an hour.

[Rikae]

I remember thinking at DL yesterday that Lottie's posting might attract wolf attention, just because she was so certain and vehement it made her look very innocent.

Actually my mental note was "if Hui is innocent and Lottie's still alive tomorrow, I should probably wonder about *her*".

Edit: x'd with Kath

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Lottie

Or I guess you could try Formendacil's "talk to them" strategy...seems a little fishy to me though.

Originally Posted by Lottie

So basically what I'm saying is, if someone strikes me as sounding particularly Boro-like, I'm gonna suspect them of being the NW.

Hui has some suspicion of Lottie based on this - thinking she might be a wolf framing him for acting that very way. He mentions Pitch as noticing Lottie talking about possibly not killing a wolf, and me for saying he's acting that way. Lottie in return thinks he's innocent.

Pitch soft-defends Lottie in post 99.

Originally Posted by Lottie

I don't really want to lynch Huin toDay, I've gotten a general innocent vibe from him. I agree with others that Form, Pitch, or Nilp could have potentially been cobbler hinting, though I would say the Nilp hint was a little more ambiguous. I'd be okay with voting for Form or Pitch, but I'd rather vote someone I think is a wolf than someone I think is a cobbler.

Originally Posted by Lottie

So who would I be willing to vote? I get good vibes from Greenie, Rikae and Brinn, and pretty good vibes from Shasta and Huin. I haven't seen anything that makes me question Blind Guardian or Sally. So, I'm not going to be voting for any of those people. That leaves Kath, Nog, Mac, Legate, and Lommy as alternatives to the Three Cobblers.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Actually, Legate's last post pinged my radar. Sounded very careful and practiced. Too late in the Day to vote him, probably, but I want to take a look at him for toMorrow.

Then votes Legate.

Originally Posted by Lottie

I don't know that I buy this from Nog, either. Also on the list of people to take a closer look at.

Well, obviously not a lot to go on. Her tone was quite ... certain, is the way I'd put it, in pretty much all of her posts. Maybe it just read as though she actually knew things rather than just suspecting? Could be a ploy from a Form-Legate-Nog wolf-pack (but please, please, no to that). If she's the Seer and had dreamt one of them it's so early in the game it's worth the risk, and if she's not the Seer they could claim set-up.

[Kath]

And to answer this because I noticed my stupid moment ...

Originally Posted by Pitch

I don't get at all what Kath is talking about here, 'the wolf becoming the Medium'. The Medium is one of the living, aren't they, so how would a lynched wolf become one?

This is because it took quite some while after this to realise that it is the person who is chosen by the Dead Thread votee who is called the Medium, not the votee themselves.

[Blind Guardian]

I'm trying to be a bit more active today and get my thoughts out since I won't be around much tomorrow at the end of the Day. (I plan on voting by 12PM AZ time (MST without Daylight Savings)

Right now I'm trying to find a reason for why the Wolves killed Lottie. My first thought was she was killed because of how she voted.

Lottie was the only person who voted for Legate. Legate in turn voted for Form.

I find this a tiny bit interesting. If Legate is the NW and the Wolves now want the NW active in the Dead Thread this can be their hint hint to get us to lynch.

On the other hand...Legate didn't say anything yesterDay that makes me suspicious of him. Legate wanted to vote for me, but actually voted for Form because:

Originally Posted by Legate

It is possible he [Form] might be a Cobbler, but I still find him more suspicious by default than Hui.

The only thing that may be even slightly suss of Legate is that he did a breakdown post of all of the players and what he thought of them. This could be a Wolf way of sending his thoughts to other Wolves during the Day. Which is a major stretch.

[Blind Guardian]

Now I'm reading Lottie's posts.

The first thing that stands out to me is that she is VERY helpful. Most of her posts are answering other peoples questions. The second most talked about thing by Lottie is the NW and Wolves in general. Was she getting too close to the Wolves or their plans and they lynched her? After that her posts are either asking questions (the "fish leather" thing from post 128), general banter, or joking around.

In post 141:
Lottie thinks that Form, Pitch, or Nilp are Cobbler hinting, but is okay with voting for Form or Pitch.

Lottie thinks that Huie is Innocent (and she was right).

I do find this quote generally interesting:

Originally Posted by Loslote

I agree with this. No one has super strong suspicions right now, but a wolf would love either a) for the innocents to not vote, so that the wolves get to pick who dies and they don't have to worry that it could be one of them or b) for the wolves to not have to leave a trail by voting for an innocent. No voting doesn't help the village at all.

So the NW... she expects the NW to be "loud and bold" (post 73). The only loud and bold person that comes to mind is Nilp, but that's his own damn fault and not a reason to lynch Lottie.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Actually, Legate's last post pinged my radar. Sounded very careful and practiced. Too late in the Day to vote him, probably, but I want to take a look at him for toMorrow.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Okay, so, two each for Form, Huin, and Nilp. Form has the tiebreaker.

Originally Posted by Loslote

[highlight//]++Legate[/highlight]

His last post struck me as way more suspicious than any of the other candidates. It was full of long words and had the overall effect of hemming and hawing, and majorly pinged my radar.

After this the rest of her posts are apologizing to Hu.

I'm honestly thinking that Lottie was lynched because the Wolves think she's a) too helpful, b) too vocal about Wolf strategy for their comfort (which we would need to look at), or c) they didn't know who to vote for so voted for the person most likely to be a Villager. Or there's something else I'm overlooking. I'm interested in hearing what you guys think.

[Formendacil]

LOSLOTE:

I'm not sure if I'm surprised Lottie was killed or not. I was looking over things during the Night phase hours, and she was on my Question Mark list as someone who had said a lot (she posted 22 times yesterDay, the most in village), but was only quoted or referred to 25 times--the 7th most in the village.

Granted, this is coming from my rather subjectively-determined way of recording things, but in general there is a correlation between the amount someone posted and the amount they were spoken of. For example, Huin posted 18 times, good for a tie with Shasta for 3rd-most, and he was quoted or referred to in 54 posts, which was the most--and that seems about right, since he ended up being the lynchee.

One post of Loslote's that I flagged as being a bit odd was 154 of this thread, where she does not mention me, she does not mention Nilp, nor Pitch, nor Sally. Sally is easy enough to explain as having not been around, but when I was still considering if she might have been a wolf, I wondered if what was generally a comprehensive post (i.e. it's the "here's what I'm thinking about everyone post") why the rest of us were missing. Could be that Nilp and I had both been quite active--and she HAD posted about Pitch.

Anyway, does that mean anything now that she's dead? Probably not, though MAYBE if the wolves were looking to kill someone that had left no suspicions back in their direction and they were looking chiefly at people's "here's what I'm thinking about everyone posts", there is a wolf or two hidden in those absences.


HUINESORON:

My records of who mentioned/quoted seem a bit less useful here, since he turned out to be ordinary, and I'm not seeing anything yet in the people who mentioned HIM that reveals anything. As already noted, he was very active yesterday, so there's references to him. The flip-flop on me mid-post, resulting in his vote for me, was weird, but the real value there is in how it got leapt on and became the driving factor for his lynching. Frankly, I was Don Quixote against the Day 1 Windmills and then the Mad "What if we lynch no one" scientist (which, once I thought it through over several posts became a hole I was aware I was digging), so a vote for me as I grew more ridiculous over the course of the day seems more justified (even I know it was wrong) than the backlash to that vote became.

If I had the money to wager, I'd lay it all on the proposition that there was a wolf among those who voted to lynch Huin.


GUT REACTIONS TO HUIN'S LYNCHERS:

Shasta, Rikae, Nog, and Kath.

Shasta has a relatively high post-count (tied for 3rd at 18), but this is somewhat deceptive as a guide to his activity level, since his modus operandi was to make quick, one-paragraph replies to specific people/topics. He rarely posted in great depth--but he was involved. My gut inclines to say he's not an ordo... but that could just as well mean Gifted as Wolf.

Rikae disturbs me, but I don't know why. Just a different vibe/posting style?

Nog DOESN'T disturb me, and I actually think that's suspicious--as though he's trying too hard to be mellow and disinterested. That makes me think Gifted/Wolf again, but I lean Wolf.

Kath seems just a bit off-kilter, but I don't know why. She's the only one of these four that I think a possible cobbler right now.


OTHER THOUGHTS:

I mentioned that Loslote had struck me as having a somewhat off-kilter relationship between her number of posts and number of quotes/mentions. No one else was as drastic here, but Shasta also stood out as having posted a lot (as noted, third most) but didn't garner much attention--only 18 quotes/mentions by my count, good for 9th place. This might just be because his posting style inflates his post count relative to how much he actually said.

Pitchwife said relatively little (11 posts/9th most) but got a higher amount of attention (28 mentions/quotes - 4th most). I don't have a theory right now for what this might mean.

Kath also said fairly little (9 posts/10th most) but got a good amount of traction (26 mention/quotes - 6th most). She actually NEVER mentions Pitch that I recorded (but I think she doesn't bold names as much as some of us, so I could have missed them in my tally) but *IF* my tally is right, could this mean they're both Wolves? Pitch voted for her and she voted for Huin: could Kath have been subtly avoiding creating any ties to a fellow Wolf while Pitch made sure to set up a bit of an alibi for down the road that was completely safe to do? Kath was never in any danger of dying.

Then there's the lurkers: obviously, we all hope Sally is well enough to give us some posts, but there's also Mac, who has the same number of posts as Sally! Somehow, despite posting as little as Sally, Mac was even more under the radar: 7 mentions/quotes to Sally's 12. Of course, that could just be everyone wishing Sally well, but it still goes to show that if anyone flew under the radar, it's Mac.

Well--and Greenie. She was next-to-last after Mac and Sally in posting and tied with Mac in mentions. Of course, low posting correlates with low mentions, so this isn't a proof of Wolvishness, by any means, but it IS the stratum where a Wolf would love to hide, so worth investigating.

[Blind Guardian]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

One post of Loslote's that I flagged as being a bit odd was 154 of this thread, where she does not mention me, she does not mention Nilp, nor Pitch, nor Sally. Sally is easy enough to explain as having not been around, but when I was still considering if she might have been a wolf, I wondered if what was generally a comprehensive post (i.e. it's the "here's what I'm thinking about everyone post") why the rest of us were missing. Could be that Nilp and I had both been quite active--and she HAD posted about Pitch.

Originally Posted by Loslote

So who would I be willing to vote? I get good vibes from Greenie, Rikae and Brinn, and pretty good vibes from Shasta and Huin. I haven't seen anything that makes me question Blind Guardian or Sally. So, I'm not going to be voting for any of those people. That leaves Kath, Nog, Mac, Legate, and Lommy as alternatives to the Three Cobblers. I don't have particularly strong suspicions towards any of those five, but I either see people's points about Kath or I have residual mistrust from last game (hard to tell which), and I feel like I should have a clearer feeling about Nog, Legate, and Lommy by now. So I guess I could be willing to vote for those four, but I might end up just voting for a possible cobbler if no one does anything suspicious in the next hour.

Sally was mentioned in that post.

Of course, that could just be everyone wishing Sally well, but it still goes to show that if anyone flew under the radar, it's Mac.

I complete agree with you here. Mac needs to post more. I didn't even realize that he was part of this game.

[Macalaure]

Going through the vote count... I didn't realize at the time that I was the last one left to vote! I probably would have voted for Nilp if I had been aware, not that it would have made a difference.

But anyway, the voting was pretty much all over the place and I hope we can do better toDay. I find analyzing this hard - no real bandwaggon, pretty much everyone voting for who they want with fairly weak suspicions. Yes, I know, Day 1, sure sure... but we really made it easy for the wolves to just vote for whoever with whatever reason.

Anyway, votes that struck me suspicious:
Shasta because "I like his answer but I'll vote him anyway". I'd expect an innocent to care a bit more than that.
BG because her reason half-relied on early banter. Feeling better after her explanation toDay, though.
Nogrod because he put Hui in the lead over Form and Nilp. This of course depends on Form's and Nilp's role. Nevertheless something felt odd to me about the tone of his suspicions of Hui. Can't put my finger on it.
Brinn for throwing away her vote.
Pitch for reeeally throwing away his vote.

If you don't like the way the voting is going and have a strong suspect yourself, why don't you try to convince people to go your way? A more timid person might not, admitted, but Pitch at the very least is not timid.

Originally Posted by Legate

Macalaure - he has posted very little, which actually surprises me, most of all because of the almost zero content in his one post. So much that it is actually eyebrow-raising. I definitely would like to see more from him.

I think Legate was the only one to mention me at all yesterDay, so he deserves a reply. I was kind of stressed out on Day1 and couldn't participate as much as I wanted to. I do have every intention to do better toDay. Still, "almost zero content" is harsh. Not entirely inaccurate at that point, but still harsh.


Reading Form's post (yaay, more mentions of me!)... Are you all playing this while keeping track of statistics with a spreadsheet? Am I doing this wrong?

Also, yeah, working on the participation end. Though I don't think I usually top the post count in the best of cases.

[Formendacil]

[QUOTE=Blind Guardian;726433]Sally was mentioned in that post./QUOTE]

Whoops! You're right.



And, re: Mac on the subject of spreadsheets...

Yup. Never ever done that before in WW, but there's a first time for everything, and I've been learning a lot more in Excel the last few years. It's proving fun in an inane, statistical way.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

One post of Loslote's that I flagged as being a bit odd was 154 of this thread, where she does not mention me, she does not mention Nilp, nor Pitch, nor Sally.

Form-chan, I think we (you, me, Pitch) are the Three Cobblers referred to in said post.

[Macalaure]

Why Lottie?

There's the usual Day1 goofing around, then some strategy talk... she doesn't really get into the thick of it until about an hour before the deadline. She calls Hui out for being paranoid, but is (one of) the first to say it's giving an innocent vibe.

She entertains the thought that Form, Pitch, or Nilp could be the cobbler.

#154 looks distinctly non-seerish, as not one name is singled out.

Then she picked up on Legate with some determination and votes for him. She spends the rest of the Day1 trying to save Hui.


If the wolves thought she was the seer, it would obviously point to Legate, but I don't see it. I admittedly didn't read through every early post. Did anybody see anything that one could interpret as a gifted hint? Or did the wolves just throw us the person with the highest post count so the village would have to talk about something that would lead them the wrong way? In that case the ones she listed as innocent - Greenie, Rikae, Brinn, Shasta, and BG and Sally to a lesser extent would look worse, though that's too large of a group to be useful.

I feel like I'm trying to read too much into this.

[Brinniel]

I always find it interesting when people analyze early Night kills with the thought that the wolves' chosen victim was a suspected seer who dreamed of one of them. It is extremely lucky when a seer actually dreams of a wolf on Night 1 and it doesn't happen often. I'd imagine the wolves are going to be looking for the seer, but this early in the game, they'd probably more likely look for someone who is hinting a player's innocence. If I were to guess, the wolves picked Lottie because they thought she was a seer who dreamt of Hui.

Originally Posted by BG

I'm honestly thinking that Lottie was lynched because the Wolves think she's a) too helpful, b) too vocal about Wolf strategy for their comfort (which we would need to look at), or c) they didn't know who to vote for so voted for the person most likely to be a Villager. Or there's something else I'm overlooking. I'm interested in hearing what you guys think.

I find your whole reasoning here to be very confusing. Not only you leave out the possibility of Lottie getting killed for being a suspected seer (most likely scenario to me), but you say one reason that they might've chosen her was because she was most likely a villager? That doesn't make any sense. Why would the wolves purposely choose some they suspect is an ordinary villager when there are three gifteds out there?

Originally Posted by Mac

Brinn for throwing away her vote.
Pitch for reeeally throwing away his vote.

Funny since you brought it up, wasn't your vote a throwaway too?

Yeah, maybe you can call mine a bit of a throwaway, but I didn't really care to vote for any of the options on the table. And I honestly thought that there were more people left to vote (I forget this is a smaller village compared to last game).

Originally Posted by Mac

Are you all playing this while keeping track of statistics with a spreadsheet? Am I doing this wrong?

Not me! I usually at most just scribble handwritten notes when I play. There may have been a game or few in the past where I tracked quotes from players in a word documents, but never spreadsheets. I deal enough with spreadsheets at work...y'all are crazy!

I see Formy is now using statistics/math to analyze posts. Blegh!

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Form-chan, I think we (you, me, Pitch) are the Three Cobblers referred to in said post.

Ha! That's what I get focusing in one post at a time, looking for bolded names. That would certainly be the easiest way to fill that gap.

The Loslote Was Killed For Looking Like A Seer case has merit enough to consider. Honestly, though, it makes me wonder less about the Wolves--because OF COURSE they'll take a gamble on a Seer (though it's worth double-checking if it leaves a trail back to them conventionally)--but about Loslote. In other words, since she's not actually the Seer, is she an Ordo who got misinterpreted, an Ordo who deliberately cast some distractions out there (an Anti-Cobbler, so to speak, to protect the real Seer, whomever they were), or the Cobbler?

I just checked the Planning Thread main post--I didn't check the whole thread--but it didn't actually say what I've been assuming: is the Cobbler actually revealed in death? I keep assuming that it's not and it's the one role revealed after the game is over... but am I just making that up? The only relevance here is that knowing the Cobbler is dead would mean we don't have to worry about one, but the import for the Dead Thread is huge. Having not seen anything in the Planning Thread, I assume I am making this up...

...the upshot of which is that Loslote is a Cobbler could be scratched from my list of options.


Anyway, while there may be something to be gleaned, it's probably wrong to focus on Loslote's reasons; the Wolves and their possible reasons will save the village more.

I still think there's something weird in the nexus of Pitch and Kath, but I don't know if it's both of them or just one...

More anon.